President
Rajapaksa despite his reassuring words to India, has not endeared himself to
India in his actions
R Hariharan |September 09,
2021| First Post | Home – News |
There is no doubt India-Sri Lanka relations have run into rough patches during the last few years. Nothing illustrates this better than the fact that the chair of Sri Lanka's ambassador to India had remained vacant for a year so far. The High Commissioner-designate to India, Milinda Moragoda is in New Delhi only now to assume the office, even though media had hinted at his appointment as early as August 2020. Of course, the delay in Sri Lanka appointing the high commissioner to New Delhi can be conveniently attributed to the Delta variant of the COVID-19 pandemic that hit both countries. However, it also highlights President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s domestic preoccupations overtaking the need to reinvigorate the relations with India, which had become ragged since he assumed power in November 2019.
Of course, the Sri Lankan president
visited New Delhi within ten days of assuming office, after Jaishankar, minister
for external affairs, flew to Colombo to convey Indian Prime Minister's
invitation to visit India. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s visit to New Delhi so
soon after assuming office showed that he was conscious of the unique relations
existing between the two countries, umbilically linked by geography, culture,
religion and shared historical experience.
According to media reports, the Sri Lankan President during his
meeting with PM Modi stated that India was the “closest neighbour and
longstanding friend” and “whilst, with India the cooperation was multi-faceted
with priority given to security-related matters, with other countries
[obviously hinting at India’s concern over China’s presence in Sri Lanka], the
initiatives for cooperation are by and large, economic and commercial.” He is
said to have told the PM that “he would not allow any third force to come in
between cooperation with India.
However, much water has flown in the
Palk strait since 2019. There has been a lot of churning up in the internal and
external environment of not only India and Sri Lanka, but the Indo-Pacific
region as a whole. All the neighbours of India, except Maldives and Bhutan,
have joined China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), firming up
China’s presence in India’s immediate neighbourhood. India’s relations with
China have irreversibly changed from cooperation to confrontation on many
fronts, after Chinese troops intruded across the Line of Actual Control (LAC)
in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020 resulting in the clash at Galwan post, causing
casualties on both sides. Even after many rounds of talks to defuse the
situation, force levels on both sides of the LAC continue to be high. With the
Taliban back in power in Afghanistan, China is likely to play an increasingly
assertive role in the region in partnership with Pakistan. This is likely to
add further complications to the tenuous relations between the big Asian neighbours.
In the face of China’s increasing belligerence in the
Indo-Pacific, India, the US, Japan and Australia have come together to build
their collective strength through the Quadrilateral framework. The security
relations between the members are also being scaled up. In fact, Indo-US
security relations are closer now, than ever before. With these moves, the
centre of gravity of global strategic power is shifting to the Indian Ocean
Region (IOR), with Sri Lanka emerging as its pivot. China’s investment in
developing maritime and infrastructure assets in Sri Lanka are an important
part of China’s Indo-Pacific security. We can expect China’s influence in Sri
Lanka to grow wider, deeper and all-embracing in the coming years. Sri Lanka as
the vanguard of the South Asian region is likely to find it difficult to
safeguard its national interests as strategic pressures build up in the Indian
Ocean.
President Rajapaksa despite his
reassuring words to India, has not endeared himself to India in his actions.
Under his watch, the trilateral agreement with India and Japan to jointly
develop the strategically important Colombo Eastern Container Terminal (ECT)
was given up, on specious grounds. The Colombo Port City (CPC) special economic
zone coming up in reclaimed land in the heart of Colombo will be controlled by
the China Harbour Engineering Co which holds a 99-year lease on 85 percent of
the land. It will be overlooking the Colombo port through which 70 percent of
India’s container traffic moves. So, India has real concerns as the CPC SEZ
would legitimise the presence of the Chinese. It would involve a large influx
of Chinese in trade, commerce, logistics, communication, finance,
infrastructure and security.
In January 2021, Sri Lanka has approved a Chinese firm – Sinosar
Etechwinee Joint Venture – to instal hybrid renewable energy systems in
Nainativu, Delft and Analaitivu islands located in Palk Bay, barely 50 km from
Tamil Nadu coast.
These Chinese assets can become hotbeds of Chinese intelligence
and be used to eavesdrop and interfere with Indian communication, track ship
movements and enhance electronic warfare capacity. A greater Indian concern
would be their ability to buy influence over Sri Lankan politics and trade to
suit China’s goals. India’s growing concerns on these developments are known to
Sri Lanka. And India will be factoring these aspects in its relations with the
island neighbour.
These Chinese assets can become
hotbeds of Chinese intelligence and be used to eavesdrop and interfere with
Indian communication, track ship movements and enhance electronic warfare
capacity. A greater Indian concern would be their ability to buy influence over
Sri Lankan politics and trade to suit China’s goals. India’s growing concerns
on these developments are known to Sri Lanka. And India will be factoring these
aspects in its relations with the island neighbour.
President Rajapaksa by his own admission has taken a pledge to
protect the unity of the country and to safeguard and nurture Buddha Sasana. He
is running the country with handpicked military officers heading oversight
committees and occupying administrative posts. He has also pardoned military
men convicted of criminal acts and dropped cases against armed forces personnel
who were being prosecuted for such acts. The democratic polity sees this as a
sign of increasing militarisation of the administration.
The COVID-19 pandemic
infection has crossed the 400,000-mark by the end of August. The tourism
industry, foreign remittances and export trade crippled by the pandemic are yet
to recover. This has affected the livelihood of the people, sending prices of
essential commodities shooting to the skies. Unmindful of these developments
Rajapaksa has introduced some of the most drastic measures, ostensibly for
shoring up the sinking economy and creating an environment-friendly society.
These include banning the import of chemical fertilisers to popularise the use
of organic fertilisers, ban on import of phones and automobiles, which have
made life difficult for the citizens.
The US State Department’s recent
report on the investment climate in Sri Lanka says: “Sri Lanka is a challenging
place to do business with high transaction costs, aggravated by an
unpredictable economic policy environment, inefficient delivery of government
services, and opaque government procurement practices. Investors noted concerns
over the potential for contract repudiation, cronyism, and de facto or de jure
expropriation. Public sector corruption is a significant challenge for US firms
operating in Sri Lanka and a constraint on foreign investment. While the
country generally has adequate laws and regulations to combat corruption,
enforcement is weak, inconsistent, and selective.
US stakeholders and potential investors
expressed particular concern about corruption in large infrastructure projects
and in government procurement. The government pledged to address these issues,
but the Covid response remains its primary concern. Historically, the main
political parties do not pursue corruption cases against each other after
gaining or losing power.”
It is in this complex environment, the 57-year-old Asoka Milinda
Moragoda's job as Sri Lanka High Commissioner in New Delhi is going to be a
challenging one. The politically savvy Moragoda is a two-term parliamentarian,
who had served as a cabinet minister for justice and law reforms under
President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Presumably, his cabinet rank appointment indicates he has the ears
of Rajapaksas. He has wide interests and experience in business, government,
diplomacy, media and not for profit organisations. Moragoda, an alumnus of the
IMD Business School, Lausanne, Switzerland, has come to New Delhi armed with a
plan of action.
The action plan titled “Integrated Country Strategy for Sri Lanka
Diplomatic Missions in India 2021/2023” contains clear goals, objectives and
strategies to be followed by the three Sri Lankan missions in India. Goals
include elevating existing bilateral relationship to a strategic level,
bolstering foreign investments and earnings from exports, expand strategic
cooperation in defence and Indian Ocean security,
The seven objectives given are
ambitious. Some are mundane like strengthening bilateral relationships through
the exchange of high-level visits and parliamentary diplomacy. Some are novel
like promoting greater interaction with the states of India which can resolve
long-drawn issues of displaced persons and protecting Sri Lanka’s marine
resources (euphemism for resolving a fishing dispute). A few goals are
achievable: convene bilateral joint commissions, enhance cooperation in the
fields of culture, education and science and technology. So is the goal of
enhancing air, sea, electrical grid and digital connectivity.
Though the document is for internal use, he has discussed its
content in various interviews with the press both in Sri Lanka and India,
perhaps to gain public confidence. However, it can come only when both the
countries act together to come up with some quick results. For instance, if
Tamil Nadu chief minister can be persuaded to form a consortium of the state
industrialists to invest in Northern Province to create employment
opportunities for unemployed Tamil youth, it would make it easier for Tamil
refugees in India to return home. But with Chinese footprint increasing in the
island, will equal opportunities be given to Indian investors? Only, Sri Lanka
can reassure them by taking the initiative.
Similarly, enough homework has been
done to find ways to resolve the vexing issue of Tamil Nadu fishermen fishing
in Sri Lankan waters. What is required is the political will to find an out of
the box solution to arrive at a win-win solution.
Sri Lanka cannot wish away the issue of equitable rights for
the Tamil minority as it has political connotations in Indian politics.
Indo-Sri Lanka Accord 1987, despite its many shortcomings, still remains valid
in meeting some of the Tamil aspirations. The 13th amendment to the
constitution created provincial councils with limited autonomy. Though
President Mahinda Rajapaksa had spoken of implementing a 13A plus, before the
Eelam War ended, nothing came of it. It is clear President Gotabaya Rajapaksa
does not favour the 13A. Many feel he may do away with it.
If the new Sri Lanka High Commissioner show results in some of
these issues, he will be achieving much more than what he contemplates in his
ICS document.
Colonel R Hariharan,
former MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of
intelligence with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90
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