Rajapaksas need to adopt a different style of
politics where they engage constructively with the Opposition. Are they ready
to bite the bullet?
R
Hariharan |Opinion| Firstpost | April
13, 2022
Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency
probably reached the point of no return, after 41 members of the ruling Sri
Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) coalition partners withdrew their support to the
government on 5 April. Two days earlier, the President had disbanded his cabinet,
in a bid to form an all-party government to tide over the financial crisis. His
call had no takers because the Opposition parties see Gotabaya as a loser and
want him out of office. The main opposition, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), the
10-party alliance as well as the JVP-led National Peoples Power (NPP) are in no
mood to help him out at least for the time being. So, a temporary government
led by his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, assisted by four
essential ministers, is in place now.
The 31 March night public protest near the President’s residence
in Colombo suburb has now snowballed into a nationwide protest movement against
the Rajapaksas. It reflected the people’s total loss of faith in their handling
of continuing shortages of food, fuel and essential goods including medicines.
For the first time, Gotabaya must be feeling lonely at the top.
Having been accustomed to fawning public hailing him as a national hero for
over a decade, it must be a rude shock to see ‘Go back Gota’ as the unifying
cry of the people protesting all over the island. He now appears to be groping
in the dark to find answers to the economic crisis, he does not seem to
understand.
President Rajapaksa’s control over the situation probably reached
the inflection point in the aftermath of the Mihirina protests. It is falling
as rapidly as the chaotic situation that continues in the country. The incident
showed the limitations of tear gas and water cannons used to quell public anger
by force. It also showed the limitations of the government ban on social media
sites like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, WhatsApp and TikTok in the era of VPN.
The gory visuals of the Mihirana protest beamed on social media and the TV
helped the spread of spontaneous protests turning into a people’s movement.
Of course, it was aided by the government’s hapless handling of
the aftermath of the protest. In Rajapaksas’ signature style, the government
blamed “unknown extremist elements” from the Opposition and social media
bloggers as the culprits. The arrest of protestors, in particular the arrest of
popular social media activist Anuruddha Bandara, whose #GoHomeGota2022 was
espoused by the student community, added energy to the protests. It evoked the
solidarity of white-collar workers, even government staff, trade unions,
religious leaders, civil society and legal community to march in support of the
protestors. Even the Rajapaksa scion and former minister Namal Rajapaksa voiced
his opposition to the banning of social media.
In short, the protests have unified the nation that was divided
due to ethnic and religious animosities during Gotabaya’s rule. People are now
voicing a single demand — Rajapaksas should quit. The Opposition parties dare
not offend the protest movement; even the Rajapaksas have adopted a
conciliatory tone. The Opposition has quickly adopted ‘Go Gota Go’ slogan as
their own. In a studied response, the Rajapaksa government seemed to have
“sacrificed” Basil Rajapaksa and Rajapaksa loyalist and Central Bank governor
Ajith Nivard Cabraal, seen by the public as “arch-villains” for their woes.
What is Gotabaya’s game plan?
First, Rajapaksas’ political game planning should not be
underestimated. They have strong survival instincts. Led by Gotabaya, they
bounced back to the centre stage of power after spending time in political
wilderness when Mahinda failed to get elected for a third term as President in
2015.
Second, Gotabaya is a fighter, though of the military kind. He
will be hard put to be persuaded to resign. Chief Government Whip and Highways
Minister Johnston Fernando made this clear in his strident speech in
parliament. “President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will not resign just because Anura
Kumara Dissanayake [JVP leader] and his men shout slogans. The president is
elected by the people and he will not step down. Even Madam Sirimavo
Bandaranaike faced a similar crisis in 1971. Thousands of youth were killed
because of the JVP uprising. Then another 60,000 youth perished in the 1988-89
period. Do not push the country back to that situation again,” he added. Was
Fernando flexing the muscle to discourage JVP from indulging in any direct
action? But the reality: 2022 is not 1971 and Gotabaya is no Sirimavo. Nor the
JVP anymore the wide-eyed revolutionary movement it was.
During the course of veteran Gotabaya’s tenure as president, he
pampered the armed forces and veterans by closing the cases of misuse of power
against them and brought them within the ruling power structure. They are now
playing a key role as trustworthy foot soldiers of the President in the
government. They are ensuring his will is writ in the country’s foreign policy,
development, defence and even in the fight against the Covid pandemic. After
Gotabaya restored the presidential executive powers, he has set a precedent for
military to have a role in the government.
This has given rise to apprehension, not only among the public,
but even among the international community that the military might be used to
bail out Gotabaya. To remove any such apprehension, Chief of Defence Staff
General Shavendra Silva addressed a gathering of foreign defence advisers and
attaches in Colombo on 4 April. He said, “The armed forces of Sri Lanka would
always comply with the Constitution and the Army is no exception.” As a
professional outfit, the army is always prepared “to provide security and
protection to the State as necessary”, he added. The assurance was very much
needed when Sri Lanka is seeking the help of the international community to get
out of its financial logjam.
Hopefully, Sri Lanka with its strong democratic credentials will
discourage any such misadventure. On the flip side, the message can also be
seen by Rajapaksas’ detractors as an ominous hint that the army is closely
watching those who are shouting “Go Gota Go”.
Gotabaya’s game plan seems to be a work in progress. For the time
being, it is to make do with a temporary cabinet government under Prime
Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa to facilitate the forthcoming talks with the IMF.
Out of the four ministers sworn in, finance minister Ali Sabry resigned his
office within 24 hours; however, he has been ‘persuaded’ to remain in office.
Evidently, he will be handling the forthcoming talks with the IMF. The
Opposition has welcomed the appointment of Dr Nandalal Weerasinghe as the new
governor of the country’s central bank and KMM Siriwardhana as the treasury
secretary. Both have the knowledge and experience to manage the present crisis
and deal with the international bodies.
The President has formed an advisory
group with former governor of the central bank and former director of economic
affairs department Indrajit Coomaraswamy, former chief economist of World Bank
Shanta Devarajan, and former deputy director of African Department of the IMF
Sharmini Coorey as members. Hopefully, the members will strategise the way out
of the economic morass in Sri Lanka.
But for any strategy to succeed the country needs stability. Ali
Sabry, the reluctant finance minister, pointing out this, said: “We must
discuss with the World Bank and we must have bride-financing plan with ADB. If
we don’t have stability, who will conduct the talks?” Political stability is
the need of the hour to survive the demands of $1 billion bond maturing on 25
July, while $ 7 billion odd debt needs to be serviced during the year.
With China not very keen to extend
further financial help, Sri Lanka has been increasingly depending upon India to
meet its immediate needs of fuel and food. Since January, India has helped Sri
Lanka with $2.4 billion, including $ 400 million currency swap and a $500
million deferment. In March, India extended a credit line of $1 billion for the
procurement of food, medicines and other essential items. People have welcomed
India’s timely help in sending urgently needed fuel and rice supplies on
real-time basis. The credit line for supply of petroleum will be exhausted in
April. But how long and how much India can help Sri Lanka is the moot point.
Moreover, external help comes with conditions: Corruption-free
administration, good governance with rule of law, accountability for
aberrations in governance, war crimes and human rights, and meeting the just
aspirations of minorities.
Does Gotabaya’s game plan cater for these demands? That would
probably require a political master plan, rather than a game plan.
It is doubtful whether the Opposition baying at his heels has the
patience to allow even the temporary government to survive, at least till the
government evolves a workable economic plan to be implemented.
That may require the support of the Opposition, which can only be
facilitated if Rajapaksas adopt a different style of politics. Are they ready
to bite the bullet? Only time will tell.
The author is a retired MI specialist
on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian
Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai
Centre for China Studies. Views expressed are personal.
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