After Gotabaya, analysing who, what and when of Sri Lankan crisis

Answers can only be found when the confrontation between the government and the protestors is resolved amicably and a new President is elected on 20 July to restore some stability

Col R Hariharan | Opinion| Firstpost. | July 14, 2022 07:36:55 IST 

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/after-gotabaya-analysing-who-what-and-when-of-sri-lankan-crisis-10908401.html

Sri Lanka President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, after enduring massive protests against him for three months, fled the country with his wife and two bodyguards in a Sri Lanka air force plane to the Maldives on Wednesday. This may well be the swan song of his brief foray in Sri Lanka politics. Only three years ago, Army veteran Gotabaya, hailed as the hero of the Eelam War, scored a thumping victory in the presidential poll, and promised as the guardian of Buddha Sashana, security and stability for everyone. He has now fled the country, leaving it on the brink of chaos. A day earlier, he made an effort to leave the country in an airline aircraft. However, it failed after Colombo airport officials could not guarantee his security when the passengers objected to his travel.

In his last act as President and Commander-in-Chief of armed forces, Gotabaya commandeered an air force plane to take his entourage for the Maldives in the wee hours on 13 July. According to media reports, he had secured a visa to the Maldives, after the US, India and the UAE denied it. It is ironic that Gotabaya gave up his US citizenship to become eligible to contest the presidential poll in 2019.

Gotabaya may have wanted to spend time in peace in Male, ruing Bob Dylan’s 1976 lyrics of Going, Going, Gone: “I’ve just reached a place/Where the willow don’t bend/There is not much more to be said/It’s the top of the end/I’m going/I’m going/I’m gone.” But that was not to be, as crowds of Maldivians and expatriate Sri Lankans gathered outside Maldives president Ibrahim Solih’s house, demanding Rajapaksa be sent back to Sri Lanka. The hapless Rajapaksa will now be catching a flight to Singapore, where he has been given asylum.

He will be joining the global list of ‘illustrious’ veterans including Idi Amin Dada and Pervez Musharraf, who set out to remove the kinks in democratic rule, but ended up in exile. Generally, their ambition and greed overtook the norms of good governance and democratic conduct.

The former president has left the nation, grappling with not only empty coffers and shortages of food and fuel, but also to find answers to three Ws — Who, What and When — after his departure? It is not easy to find answers to the three questions. The triumph of three-month-long people’s struggle on 9 July has changed the dynamics of Sri Lanka’s traditional power politics, dominated by two dozen families. It has demonstrated that rulers, however popular and powerful they are, cannot take the people for granted, for all times to come.

This was brought home on 9 July, when protestors in thousands responding to the nationwide call, overcame police barricades and water cannons and teargas to forcibly occupy the President’s House and Secretariat and Temple Trees, the official residence of the prime minister. President Rajapaksa had agreed to resign on 13 July. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had agreed to resign when an all-party government was formed. The protestors have continued to occupy the seats of power till the resignation of the president and prime minister is implemented.

The three Ws have gained urgency after Speaker Mahinda Abeywardhane announced that on 20 July, Parliament members will be electing a new President. As per Sri Lanka’s Constitution, the newly elected president will serve the balance of the term of Gotabaya’s tenure till November 2024. He will also be choosing his team including the prime minister and ministers to run the government. The parliamentarians will be electing the new president by secret ballot which could cut across party loyalties. So, political leaders are carrying on hectic lobbying to decide their choice.

Three names circulating as presidential aspirants are Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the Opposition (of Samagi Jana Balawegaya — SJB) Sajith Premadasa, and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) MP Dallas Alahapperuma. A section of the SLPP wants Wickremesinghe to become President, while SJB has fielded Premadasa for the post of president. SJB’s offer of prime minister’s post to Alahapperuma has not been accepted, presumably because SLPP is the largest party in Parliament. Many political leaders have objected to Wickremesinghe, who lost the parliamentary election making a backdoor entry as president.

The Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), which had been on the forefront of protests, is said to be in favour of appointing Speaker Mahinda Abeywardane as president. It feels the appointment of a political leader with future presidential ambitions will work with a bias in favour of his party.

But the whole political process took an unexpected turn for the worse on 13 July, after President Rajapaksa left for the Maldives without submitting a letter of resignation. According to the Speaker, he had promised to submit it before the end of the day. In the meanwhile, President Rajapaksa has informed the Speaker that as he was going out of the country, he was appointing Prime Minister Wickremesinghe as Acting President, in terms of Article 37(1) of the Constitution. Accordingly, Wickremesinghe assumed the office as Acting President.

The first thing the Acting President did was to order an island-wide emergency ostensibly because the president was out of the country. He followed it with the imposition of curfew in Western Province. After thousands of angry protestors surrounded the prime minister’s office, Wickremesinghe ordered the security forces to round up those engaging in unruly behaviour and impound the vehicles used by them. However, repeated use of teargas and baton charges could not stop the mob entering the prime minister’s office.

In the midst of utter chaos, Wickremesinghe, in a special TV address, on Wednesday said that a committee comprising the CDS, IGP and commanders of three services has been appointed to restore law and order to bring back normalcy. He also said he had given instructions to the security forces to control the situation in the country.

He said that he had met the party leaders to discuss the situation that can arise after the resignation of President Rajapaksa. He said that they had decided to hold the election for the presidency and provide security to parliamentarians.

He alleged that some groups of protestors had organised to storm the prime minister’s office and surround the residence of the air force commander for providing President Rajapaksa a plane to fly to Maldives. According to intelligence reports, the protestors were attempting to capture power through such activities and they had also planned to storm the Parliament. He averred that he had declared both an emergency and a curfew to “do away with this threat of fascism. We have to protect the homes of the average citizens”.

So, it seems Sri Lanka is back to the brink of chaos as the protestors have no faith in the pious words of politicians. The youth who are energising the protests cannot be wished away as they are a determined lot. Answers to “Who, What and What, after Gotabaya” can only be found when the confrontation between the government and the protestors is resolved amicably and a new President is elected on 20 July to restore some stability. Otherwise, it will be a tragedy as people are reeling under shortages of food stuff and fuel, in the midst of chaos.

The author is a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Views expressed are personal.

Just How Will Sri Lanka Get A New President?

R Hariharan |South Asia| Print| Times of India, July 14, 2022

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/just-how-will-sri-lanka-get-a-new-president/articleshow/92882151.cms

With President Gotabaya Rajapaksa reportedly having emailed his resignation to the Parliament speaker, the GoGotaGo protestors appear to have achieved their first aim. But it must be underlined that if this procedural hurdle is overcome, the path of choosing his successor will be far from smooth.

Of course, earlier hopes of ​Sri Lanka​ getting out of its political logjam with Gotabaya fleeing the country was belied, when ​he did not resign​ ​ on July 13​, as Gotapromised​​.

Instead, the 73-year old President fled to Maldives in the early hours of the day in an air force plane without submitting his resignation​ letter to the Speaker.

It then appeared he would not be submitting his resignation letter until he found a safe haven​. More so, after​ Maldiv​ians and Sri Lankan expatriates there started protesting​ against his stay. He was afterwards report to have taken a Saudi Airlines flight to Singapore and to have plans to go onwards to Saudi Arabia. 

Gotabaya created new problems even as he fled: The constitutional nicety of Gotabaya’s resignation letter was then overtaken by other developments, as he appointed PM Ranil Wickremesinghe as acting president in his absence from the country. PM Wickremesinghe had  promised that he would resign too, when a new government took over. That​ he has instead been installed as the acting president ​ has further infuriated the protestors.  

After the news of Gotabaya fleeing the country reached the protestors, a section of them, unmindful of tear gas bursts,​ ​broke the security cordon​ to forcibly occupy the PM's office on July 13. A large number of protestors ​have continued to​ occup​y​ the president’s house and secretariat and the PM’s residence,​ which they took over on​ July 9.

Wickremesinghe’s office compromised: Acting president and PM Wickremesinghe thereafter imposed a curfew in Western Province and declared a state of emergency, ostensibly because the President was out of the country. When angry protestors forced their way to the PM’s office, he asked the security forces to round up those involved and impound their vehicles.

In a televised address, he said intelligence reports indicated the protestors were attempting to capture power and storm the Parliament. He asserted that he would “do away with this threat of fascism. We have to protect the homes of the average citizens”.

Meanwhile, the speaker has announced the Parliament will meet on July 20, to elect a new president, who will serve the rest of the term of Gotabaya which ends in November 2024.

Once the new president is elected the plan is to form an all-party government, as agreed by most of the parties​,​ except the Jathiya Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). There are hectic parleys underway for the political parties to decide upon the presidential candidate​. ​

​List of potential replacements is unsatisfactory: Other than PM Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and Dallas Alahapperuma of SLPP figure in the list of potential candidates for presidency.

Though Wickremesinghe is the most experienced and politically savvy among them, there is strong political and public sentiment against him for his role in the Raj​apaksa misgovernance​. This is likely to work against him. 

The other two candidates do not have proven leadership experience  at the national level. The moot point is whether either of them can lead the all-party government through a difficult period of economic reconstruction? 

The new President will have to successfully manage the Aragalaya protesters. The Action Plan that protesters ​issued ​on July 5 includes six demands. Their key demands include the formation of a People's Council from among them to oversee the political transition of the country.  

The protesters want something else altogether: They do not want an all-party government; instead, they want an interim government for one year.​​W​ithin ​that period​ a new constitution endorsing people’s sovereignty will have to be established through a referendum. The​ new president and his team will have the testing job of reconciling these​ demands with political​ and economic​ priorities.

Considering this complex scen​e​, the new president will require a lot ​support​ from the people​ and civil society. Of course, ​​political parties​ will have to prioritise national recovery over party interest. ​And international community​ wil​l have to extend all the help to Sri Lanka to cruise through the choppy waters of economic recovery.

This journey may take a whole year. Among South Asian countries​, ​ Sri Lanka with strong democratic roots ​is​ perhaps best ​equipped​ to take this challenge. I hope India as a well-wisher of Sri Lanka will go all out to ​boost its confidence and emerge successful​.  

Col R Hariharan served as Head of Intelligence, Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka, and is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies.

 

India, Sri Lanka, China and the QUAD: Q & A

 Col R Hariharan

Here is my response to two questions from Sri Lanka media on the strategic developments in the wake of Sri Lanka economic crisis:

Q: There is a sudden positive climate for India in Sri Lanka. In the economy hit Sri Lanka, the US and Japan seem to have come to regain their lost "glory." Japan was seriously upset with the earlier government for revoking their projects. After the appointment of Julie Chung as US ambassador, the US has turned to be very active in promoting the IMF, etc. to gain its pace. India has strengthened its ties. How do you see these developments?

A: For geostrategic reasons, I attach greater importance to India strengthening its ties with Sri Lanka, because it will also influence India's strategic allies. 

On the regional plane, India regaining its position as a favoured partner of Sri Lanka did not happen overnight. PM Modi has been trying to live up to his maxim of "Neighbourhood First" in paying special attention to improve India's relations not only with Sri Lanka, but also with Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles and Bangladesh, which are part of Indian Ocean strategic sphere dominated by India. Regardless of the change in Sri Lanka government leadership, PM Modi has kept alive his contacts with the leaders of not only the ruling parties but also the others (remember his meeting with Mahinda after he lost the presidential election?). Unlike earlier Indian PMs, he attaches importance to his visibility in Sri Lanka - like his visits to Jaffna and Colombo after the Easter Sunday attack. He has tried to deliver upon India's promises to contribute towards development projects despite pinpricks of Sri Lanka local politics. PM Modi has also worked to revive the Buddhist connect of Sri Lanka with India. At the same time, he has  not discarded India's demand for implementation of 13th amendment; I feel if Tamil polity can work out a viable solution to the national question, India would support it. 

Probably, President Gotabaya also understands that India's strategic concerns under PM Modi cannot be ignored. Even when he was the defence secretary, he had to reassure India, when it objected to the entry of a Chinese submarine in Colombo port. So first thing Gotabaya did on taking over as President was to reassure India that Sri Lanka would never allow any activity that threatens India's strategic security. This helped growth of positive vibes in the relations. The global Covid pandemic and its terrible impact on Sri Lankan peoples health and economy created a positive climate for India-Sri Lanka relationship to grow. And when the Ukraine War added to Sri Lanka's agony. Indian leadership and diplomats seem to have finetuned their real time response to Sri Lanka's urgent needs unlike the stodgy Chinese. This has worked in favour of India emerge as a true friend of Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu's large-hearted help to Sri Lankans in their time of distress is indicative of the positive change in the relationship.    

On the international plane, Indo-Pacific had emerged as the focus of strategic concern for India, the US and its allies over China's increasingly belligerent conduct. It resulted in the Quadrilateral framework of four nations - Australia, India, Japan and the US - for cooperation and coordination of their response to the challenges posed by China. Though it is not a military pact like NATO, functionally the member countries have improved their military interoperability and coordination of their response systems.  Sri Lanka is at the heart of Indian Ocean region because it dominates the sea lanes of the Indo-Pacific. 

So there is a strategic logic in India, US, Japan and Australia cooperating and coordinating their plans for salvaging Sri Lankan economy. Moreover, Sri Lanka President and PM seem to have understood the viability of QUAD members using their influence over international bodies like IMF and World Bank to help Sri Lanka. This understanding can also help Sri Lanka in UN bodies like UNHRC.  So it is inevitable that India, the US and Japan turning out to be the immediate saviours of Sri Lanka. 

Q: What do you think China will do next in response to this? Sri Lanka has been asked to restructure the loan it owes China. But seemingly it is not happening because we are going to the IMF. Do you agree with this? Your comments please.  

As far as India-Sri Lanka bilateral relations are concerned, I see China's conduct as acknowledgement of India's geostrategic and socio-cultural advantages in Sri Lanka. After the Galwan military confrontation with India, China has been careful not to needle India. It probably feels the incident had pushed India to ramp up its border security framework, improve its alliances with Western powers and the US. So it probably does not want to tread on India’s shoes in Sri Lanka, unless it is inevitable. 

On the economic front, China's Belt and Road Initiative (and its 21t Century Maritime Road) projects have run into difficulties. According to December 2021 official data, China has invested $139.8 billion by 2020 in BRI projects. It includes $22.5 billion invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which has not progressed as planned. The BRI stories in Nepal and Sri Lanka are no better. After the crackdown on monopoly private holdings and the rise of Covid pandemic in China, the economy had not lived up to the forecasts. So, I believe China has become cautious in stretching itself in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.  

China is a stickler for agreements as far as investments are concerned. And Sri Lanka's bankruptcy does not make it attractive for China to defer loan repayment or write them off. So, it probably wants Sri Lanka to use its yuan loans that would directly benefit China. 

I do not agree with the view that Sri Lanka approaching the IMF influences China's attitude to Sri Lanka now. After all, the IMF will help Sri Lanka rationalise its payment of loans and interests; in the long run China stands to benefit from such rationalisation. But the IMF financial oversight can become a big nuisance to China in pushing through some of the opaque financial deals with Sri Lanka as in the past. 

So, we can expect China to watch carefully the results of international financial agencies help in Sri Lanka in the coming months, before taking a major move on the economic front.   

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]    

 

 

Sri Lanka: No light yet at the end of the tunnel

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives June 2022| South Asia Security Trends, July 2022

www.security-risk.com

Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu (also known as Lao Tze)’s well known saying “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step” is coming true in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery process. However, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, seems to have spent the month trying to find the first single step to begin the journey. It was not his fault that the recovery plan as outlined by him was hazy, as it depends upon factors beyond his control. These include both internal and external factors.

Internal factors include President Rajapaksa’s backseat driving to prove himself as a worthy president and the PM’s dependence upon the political stability of a shaky coalition of members supporting him. In addition to the outburst of public anger, there is simmering anger among the youth disillusioned with the political class. They have taken to social media to scrutinise every utterance and action of leaders in power. Their potential as political influencers of the public is still an unknown quantity. 

During his six weeks plus in office, the PM has bought time for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to weather the mounting mass protests demanding the resignation of Rajapaksas from power. PM Wickremesinghe’s regular public communications to prepare the people to face the difficult times ahead have probably helped the administration to manage public protests despite continued aberrations in governance.

This period has also helped the President to regain his confidence, rudely shaken by the wave of violence on May 9-10 that resulted in the exit of PM Mahinda Rajapaksa. President Rajapaksa in his May 12 statement agreed to support the 21^st Amendment (21A) to the constitution (to curb powers of the executive president) as it was Ranil Wickremesinghe’s precondition to join the government as PM.  President Rajapaksa has now changed his narrative as he does not seem to apprehend any threat to his office in the near term. Probably, this led to the President to publicly apologize for his mistakes and announce he would serve the full term to see the country through its economic recovery. 

He seems to have used the new found bonhomie with PM Wickremesinghe to further water down the 21A draft, which was gazetted after all party consultation. The main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJP) party which did not attend the all-party meeting, prepared its own draft of 21A. However, the effort became still-born after the Supreme Court ruled the SJB draft required a national referendum to become a law. Now, the government has gazetted a revised draft, christened as 22^nd Amendment to avoid semantic confusion with the SJB version of 21A draft. The 22A as gazetted will be placed before parliament for enactment after discussion. 

The 22A appears to be a compromise between 19^th amendment and 20A. The 19A was passed when PM Wickremesinghe in his earlier stint as PM. It made the executive president accountable to parliament and curbed his powers to make key appointments. On the other hand, the 20A enacted by President Rajapaksa in his present term, superseded the 19A and restored the powers of the executive president. Passions are likely to run high when the parliament discusses the draft 22A. The final form of 22A will also have to satisfy the civil society both at home and abroad, who have become influencers of public policy discourse. The problem in Sri Lanka politics is unpredictability. Often, there is a disconnect between thought and action, living upto the Biblical quote: “the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak.” 

The final form of the act will show how meaningful it is in increasing the executive president’s accountability to parliament. That will indicate the level of political power of the Rajapaksas’ continue to wield in influencing the parliament and the constitution. This may well decide the future course of drafting a new constitution that President Rajapaksa had promised. PM Wickremesinghe also made an attempt to draft a new equitable constitution during his term with the earlier Yahapalana government. The effort was never allowed to go beyond the first draft stage by the same political class now in power. But it may be too early to undertake that exercise as opposition parties, particularly SJB and JVP are watching the performance of the government from the wings to decide their future course.  

Externally, the PM’s economic recovery exercise has probably fared better. Talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were initiated and hopefully positive results can be expected shortly. Measures have been initiated to repair damage caused during the Rajapaksa’s spell in Sri Lanka’s relations with the US and Japan as well as the oil-rich Gulf countries. Of course, India had taken the initiative to closely monitor and repair its relations with Sri Lanka. India started to economically help Sri Lanka, even before the May upheaval. It has now become an indispensable partner in Sri Lanka’s recovery process. This is more so, in meeting Sri Lanka's urgent need for fuel and other necessities. India has extended over $3.5 billion line of credit and rescheduled its loans. It has also extended further credit for urgent supply of diesel. There is regular consultation, cooperation and coordination between India and Sri Lanka to meet the island’s real time needs.

 

But it was the UN warning early in the month that Sri Lanka’s unprecedented economic crisis could develop into a “dire humanitarian crisis” that triggered international attention and aid. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA appealed for $47 million aid to address the immediate needs of 1.7 million of the most vulnerable people. The UNICEF representative in Colombo sought help to save e 56,000 children who are potentially at the risk of dying due to malnutrition.  

 

The UN warning probably triggered the US to become an active partner in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. From mid-June, the US has announced a series of fund allocation for Sri Lanka’s small and medium businesses ($120 million), dairy industry ($27 million) and humanitarian assistance ($5,75 million). In the recent G7 Summit, POTUS Joe Biden announced $20 million in additional assistance to strengthen food security in Sri Lanka. This funding aims to support a school nutrition programme to feed 800,000 Sri Lankan children and benefit over 27,000 pregnant and lactating mothers. This takes the total US humanitarian assistance since June 16 to $32 million. Plans are also afoot to support approximately 300,000 farmers through agricultural assistance and cash to increase food production. The US is also assisting Sri Lanka in its talks with the International Monetary Fund.   

The government ended the month with its back to the wall adopting a series of firefighting measures to curtail activities that involve fuel consumption after it ran out of supplies. It suspended fuel sales to the public till July 10, except to keep essential services going. Bus services between provinces have been halted. Schools have been shut and the government servants have been asked to attend offices only thrice a week. Private enterprises have been requested to work from home, as far as possible. Though diesel shipment is expected in the second week of July, there is no word of petrol supplies.  

The JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake has come out with a strong indictment of the efforts of PM Wickremesinghe’s performance so far. Speaking at Matara on June 29, he accused PM Wickremesinghe of saving Gotabaya “who was contemplating his resignation”. He appealed to political parties to sink their differences and come together to get rid of corrupt rulers. He appealed to them to take to the streets and said the JVP will “announce a day and call upon people to suspend whatever they are doing and come to the street to join the final push to send them home.” These words could escalate public protests, increasing their potential to explode into full-fledged civil unrest. That could destabilise the country when it needs a period of stability for economic recovery. [Written on June 30, 2022]

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]