Friday, 15 July 2022

Just How Will Sri Lanka Get A New President?

R Hariharan |South Asia| Print| Times of India, July 14, 2022

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/just-how-will-sri-lanka-get-a-new-president/articleshow/92882151.cms

With President Gotabaya Rajapaksa reportedly having emailed his resignation to the Parliament speaker, the GoGotaGo protestors appear to have achieved their first aim. But it must be underlined that if this procedural hurdle is overcome, the path of choosing his successor will be far from smooth.

Of course, earlier hopes ofSri Lanka​ getting out of its political logjam with Gotabaya fleeing the country was belied, when ​he did not resign​ ​ on July 13​, as Gotapromised​​.

Instead, the 73-year old President fled to Maldives in the early hours of the day in an air force plane without submitting his resignation​ letter to the Speaker.

It then appeared he would not be submitting his resignation letter until he found a safe haven​. More so, after​ Maldiv​ians and Sri Lankan expatriates there started protesting​ against his stay. He was afterwards report to have taken a Saudi Airlines flight to Singapore and to have plans to go onwards to Saudi Arabia. 

Gotabaya created new problems even as he fled: The constitutional nicety of Gotabaya’s resignation letter was then overtaken by other developments, as he appointed PM Ranil Wickremesinghe as acting president in his absence from the country. PM Wickremesinghe had  promised that he would resign too, when a new government took over. That he has instead been installed as the acting president ​ has further infuriated the protestors.  

After the news of Gotabaya fleeing the country reached the protestors, a section of them, unmindful of tear gas bursts,​ ​broke the security cordon​ to forcibly occupy the PM's office on July 13. A large number of protestors ​have continued to​ occup​y​ the president’s house and secretariat and the PM’s residence,​ which they took over on​ July 9.

Wickremesinghe’s office compromised: Acting president and PM Wickremesinghe thereafter imposed a curfew in Western Province and declared a state of emergency, ostensibly because the President was out of the country. When angry protestors forced their way to the PM’s office, he asked the security forces to round up those involved and impound their vehicles.

In a televised address, he said intelligence reports indicated the protestors were attempting to capture power and storm the Parliament. He asserted that he would “do away with this threat of fascism. We have to protect the homes of the average citizens”.

Meanwhile, the speaker has announced the Parliament will meet on July 20, to elect a new president, who will serve the rest of the term of Gotabaya which ends in November 2024.

Once the new president is elected the plan is to form an all-party government, as agreed by most of the parties​,​ except the Jathiya Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). There are hectic parleys underway for the political parties to decide upon the presidential candidate​. ​

​List of potential replacements is unsatisfactory: Other than PM Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and Dallas Alahapperuma of SLPP figure in the list of potential candidates for presidency.

Though Wickremesinghe is the most experienced and politically savvy among them, there is strong political and public sentiment against him for his role in the Raj​apaksa misgovernance​. This is likely to work against him. 

The other two candidates do not have proven leadership experience  at the national level. The moot point is whether either of them can lead the all-party government through a difficult period of economic reconstruction? 

The new President will have to successfully manage the Aragalaya protesters. The Action Plan that protesters ​issued ​on July 5 includes six demands. Their key demands include the formation of a People's Council from among them to oversee the political transition of the country.  

The protesters want something else altogether: They do not want an all-party government; instead, they want an interim government for one year.​​W​ithin ​that period​ a new constitution endorsing people’s sovereignty will have to be established through a referendum. The​ new president and his team will have the testing job of reconciling these​ demands with political​ and economic​ priorities.

Considering this complex scen​e​, the new president will require a lot ​support​ from the people​ and civil society. Of course, ​​political parties​ will have to prioritise national recovery over party interest.And international community​ wil​l have to extend all the help to Sri Lanka to cruise through the choppy waters of economic recovery.

This journey may take a whole year. Among South Asian countries​, ​ Sri Lanka with strong democratic roots ​is​ perhaps best ​equipped​ to take this challenge. I hope India as a well-wisher of Sri Lanka will go all out to ​boost its confidence and emerge successful​.  

Col R Hariharan served as Head of Intelligence, Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka, and is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies.

 

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