Col R Hariharan
Sri Lanka Perspectives August
2022| South Asia Security Trends, September 2022 www.security-risk.com
Overview
President Ranil Wickremesinghe took tentative steps to bring a
semblance orderly governance during the month. He ended the month presenting an
interim budget to stabilize economic growth with the aim to create a surplus by
2025. After the exit of the Rajapaksas, their hopes of Wickremesinghe restoring
democratic governance were belied when the government used the Prevention of
Terrorism Act (PTA) to rounded up the Aragalaya leaders, drawing severe
criticism from civil society and the UNHRC.
There is a sense of disappointment
among the people to see parliamentarians reverting to ride their hobby
horse - jockeying for power, tinkering with
legislation in the name of curbing executive powers of the president and
endlessly talk of the elusive “all party government”.
On the positive side, the young energy minister Kanchana
Wijesekara seems to be making honest efforts to tame and rationalise energy
pricing and distribution. The talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
have progressed, though efforts to reschedule creditors is making halting
progress, with China playing truant. President Wickremesinghe seems to have
succeeded in his tightrope act in foreign policy so far, despite the
India-China differences coming alive over China berthing its spy ship in
Hambantota port in spite of India’s security concerns.
Interim
budget and economic reforms
Presenting the Budget, President Wickremesinghe
said the government’s aim is “to create a surplus in the primary budget by the
year 2025.” The Daily FT listed six salient aspects of the budget. These
included the announcement on billions of rupees-worth social safety measures,
quit notices to public servants over 60, restructuring for key 50 state owned
enterprises (SOE), measures to kickstart revival in agriculture, industry and
tourism, write off default loan of farmers and announcement of wide-ranging
revisions to many existing legislations.
Every Sri Lankan would agree with his remark
that the country “can no longer be a nation dependent on loan assistance….We
can also no longer be used as a tool of interference by other countries with
strong economies. All of our collective vision should be to make our country
strong and stable, in order to stand independently.”
However, Wickremesinghe’s reiteration of the
call to political parties to join the “All Party Government” is probably has
only some cosmetic value to the political discourse as the APG is a
non-starter. While this may be the need of the hour, much will depend upon how
the political cookie crumbles. As he said, if Sri Lanka “miss these
opportunities, we will be marginalized globally.” But the credibility of his
remarks is weakened as the same tainted political class is still calling the
shots in the present government. There is talk of former president Gotabaya
Rajapaksa returning home on September 24 from his self-exile in Thailand. If
that comes true, Wickremesinghe should get ready to handle the unsavoury task
of yet another socio-political turbulence.
The main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya
(SJB) has welcomed the budget. SJB MP and economist Dr Harsha de Silva saw it
as an attempt by the President to change the course of the country into a
‘modern productive enterprise’ by undertaking serious reforms to stabilise and
restructure the economy. To achieve this, the President has proposed the
introduction of new laws like the Public Finance Management Act to run the
affairs of the government and amendments to the Monetary Law Act to reduce the
pressure on the Central Bank from Treasury and reduce money printing. The
introduction of the new laws will have a more disciplined system of governance.
With entrenched in political and trade union
interests in SOE and among public servants, Wickremesinghe is likely to face a
tough task at every step in fulfilling this part of the agenda. As Dr de Silva
pointed out “They (SLPP) opposed every type and every time reforms were brought
up for four decades. It is a quirk of circumstances and fate almost that is
them who will have to do these reforms now.”
The state-owned Sri Lankan airlines is a case
in point. It has accumulated a staggering $ 1 billion debt and dues comprising
of $ 175 million government guaranteed international bond, $ 380 million
payable to state banks, BOC and Peoples Bank and $ 80 million loan taken from
BOC by mortgaging shares of Sri Lankan Catering. The government can no longer
fund the national carrier given the country’s financial, forex and economic
crisis.
However, the privatisation of this white
elephant is going to be an uphill task, as leftist trade unions rule the roost
in most of the SOEs and see a red flag in any talk of privatisation. Already,
there are protests voiced against the proposed privatisation of retail
distribution of fuel. Ultimately, when IMF’s structural reforms come into full
play, Sri Lankans will have no option but to corral and weed out 60 odd white
elephants of SOE.
As PM in the
Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government, Wickremesinghe had co-sponsored the UNHRC
Resolution 30/1 adopted in 2015. To retain his international credibility, he
will have to bring the issue to a logical conclusion by establishing a credible
judicial process to bring to book alleged right abusers. This is a humongous
task as the President is dependent upon the SLPP support.
The first step in improving
the government’s accountability process would be to abolish the PTA “one of the
key enablers of arbitrary detention for over decades” as described by a UN
body. Unfortunately, the government has used it to arrest Aragalaya protestors.
Instead of doing away with PTA, the government efforts are on subsume its
provisions in a National Security Act (NSA). This could only bring
international criticism to the government, when it is trying to maximise its
economic support. Of course, the larger question of implementing 13th
Amendment in full is still lingering and this is yet another pressure point.
China’s wolf diplomacy in action
China’s “spy ship” Yuan Wang-5 docked in Sri
Lanka’s Hambantota port from August 16 to 22 disregarding the security concerns
of both India and the US and turning down Sri Lanka’s request to defer the
visit. The research ship belonging to the PLA’s 5th branch – the Strategic
Support Force (PLASSF) - created in December 2015, is capable of carrying out
space, cyber and electronic warfare. It also has the capability to assist PLA’s
land-based stations in tracking satellite, rocket and ICBM launches within a
range of 750 km. There is more to China’s insistence on docking Yuan
Wang-5 in Hambantota port than refuelling and replenishment. China
was testing the depth of India-Sri Lanka relations which have become closer
than ever before. It is also a strong affirmation of China’s influence on Sri
Lanka and the Indian Ocean Region. This was indicated in an op-ed the Chinese ambassador
to Colombo Qi Zhenhong wrote in Sri Lanka media. Hinting at India,
he warned “any infringement on the national sovereignty, independence and
territorial integrity of Sri Lanka shall not be tolerated” (obviously by
China). He further added, “External obstruction based on the so-called
‘security concerns’ but without any evidence from certain forces is de facto a
thorough interference into Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and independence.”
The Chinese ambassador also reminded Sri Lanka
of the 51st session of the UN Human Rights Council to be held in
Geneva where human rights issues of Sri Lanka might be stirred up, where China
could help. India took strong exception to the Chinese envoy’s article. The
Indian High Commission in Colombo departing from the norm, let loose broadsides
on the article saying “His violation of basic diplomatic etiquette may be a
personal trait or reflecting a larger national attitude.” It added, “His views
of Sri Lanka’s northern neighbour may be coloured by how his own country behaves.
India, we assure him, is different. His imputing a geopolitical context to the
visit of a purported scientific research vessel is a giveaway.” It is
evident, India is not prepared to tolerate any more needling from China.
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar during his South American tour explained
that the relationship (with China) cannot be a one-way street. “They are our
neighbour and everybody wants to get along with their neighbour…But everybody
wants to get along with their neighbour on reasonable terms. I must respect you
and you must respect me.” He stressed that each one will have their interests
and we need to be sensitive to what the concerns are of the other party.
Tail piece: Yuan Wang-5 is
currently 400 nautical miles South-Southeast of Dondra Head at the southernmost
tip of the island nation. It is a matter of detail that the vessel is mapping
the ocean bed in an area close to the US military base in Diego Garcia.
[Col
R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the
head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He
is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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