Crystal gazing India-China relations

 2022 closed with a fresh setback to the fractured relations between India and China after Indian troops threw out 300 strong Chinese troops who had crossed the Line of Actual Control at Yang Tze in Tawang Sector of Arunachal Pradesh on December 9. How will the relations between the two Asian giants be in 2023?

India Legal/ Magazine / Special / January 7, 2023 

https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/crystal-gazing-india-china-relations-galwan-lac-ladakh/

By Col R Hariharan

After the clashes at Yang Tze, Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told the Parliament, the Chinese intruders “attempted to unilaterally change the status quo” along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In the scuffle that broke out some soldiers on both sides were injured. 

India-China relations started rapidly going south ever since China started massing troops along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. It culminated in a clash between the Chinese and Indian troops at Galwan along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020 in which 20 Indian troops were killed. The Galwan clash was perhaps a moment of truth for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who had invested heavily in building a mutually beneficial relationship with China. As prime minister, he had visited China five times and met with President Xi Jinping 18 times. Even after the ten-week long stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops in Doklam along the border with Bhutan in June 2017, he had met Xi twice in informal summits in Wuhan (April 2018) and Mahabalipuram (October 2019). They had agreed to maintain peace and tranquillity between the two countries, along their disputed border.  

After the Galwan clash, in January 2021, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had said three so-called “mutuals”—mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interests—are the determining factors for the bilateral relationship. “Any expectation that they can be brushed aside and that life can carry on undisturbed despite the situation at the border, that is simply not realistic.”

In the new year, Jaishankar’s latest broadside on China in his first media interaction in Vienna after the Yang Tze intrusion showed that India is in no mood to kiss and make up with China unless it conforms to agreed norms of conduct. He minced no words in reiterating that China was responsible for the tense situation between the two countries on the LAC. “We had agreements with China not to mass forces in our border areas and they have not observed those agreements, which is why we have the current tense situation for flouting the border agreements.” He added, “we had an agreement not to unilaterally change the LAC, which they have tried unilaterally do.”  

Evidently, the Indian MEA’s “calling a spade a spade” remarks can be considered a comment on China’s foreign minister Wang Yi’s Christmas day statement couched in diplomatese. Wang said: “China and India have maintained communication through the diplomatic and military-to-military channels, and both countries are committed to upholding stability in the border areas. We stand ready to work with India in the direction toward steady and sound growth” of the relations.

Evidently, Wang Yi was trying to play down the Yang Tze incident as the military commanders on both sides met after the incident and agreed to adhere to norms of conduct. In Eastern Ladakh, India and China held the 17th round of Corps Commander level talks on December 20 at Chushul/Moldo border. Nothing much was achieved; both sides agreed to maintain dialogue through military and diplomatic channels and work out mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues in Eastern Ladakh at the earliest.

Is this how relations between the two Asian giants will be in 2023? At the macro level, 2023 is not going to be like yester-years. As Thomas Friedman, thinker and author of the global best seller The World is Flat says, the world is not flat anymore. “The world is fast, fused, deep and open.” He explains fast as the speed of technological change in the pace of change. “Fused” is not merely the world is interconnected, but it is interdependent. The world is also fused by climate. Friedman explains “Deep” as the most important word of this era because “we have put sensors everywhere.” Lastly, he says the world is getting radically open. With a smartphone, every citizen is now a paparazzi, a filmmaker, a journalist and publisher with no editor or filter.

Friedman’s words are being validated by the way warfare has morphed into hybrid warfare—involving not merely the troops, but trade and commerce, industries, communications and at national and international levels. And China is mastering hybrid warfare. The dislocation of the chip industry in China and its fall out on global supply chains is an example of this. 

As both India and China are big countries, the advantages of coexistence and if possible, cooperation outweighs confrontation. India is an unavoidable Asian neighbour sharing the longest land border with China. Culturally, economically and militarily, India is a dominant power in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. More importantly, in spite of India’s self-reliance goals, India-China trade rose 34% to $115.83 billion in the year ending March 2022. 

China also cannot afford to ignore India as it is rated fourth in global military power rankings. Economically, India has the fifth highest GDP. India is also an important member of the Quadrilateral framework with three other-nations—Australia, Japan and the US—aimed to keep global waters free. Though the Quad framework is sketchy, India has assiduously cultivated strategic relations with the member countries.

Internationally, India shares the views of China on global warming and on the need for a more equitable world order where countries share resources equitably. India continues to be a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRICS initiative of five powers who want change. India has maintained its close friendship with Russia in the face of Western sanctions slapped after its war in Ukraine. India has maintained its strategic autonomy by importing Russian oil and evolving monetary instruments for trade with Russia, defying the sanctions regime.

Ideally in 2023, both China and India should take steps to bury their hatchets and take baby steps to build their relations. But the real world is different from the ideal. China is in no hurry to resolve the border dispute as it can be used as a pressure against India. So, we can expect sporadic incidents of manageable proportions in the dozen “trouble spots” along both Ladakh and Arunachal borders.

President Xi is relentlessly pursuing the realisation of the Chinese dream. He has consolidated his control over the CCP; under his leadership China’s policymaking apparatus now rests not with the government, but with the Communist Party. This has strengthened the Party’s role in policy formulation and its strict implementation. General Secretary Xi heads the party’s eight central commissions and the Central Taiwan Small Group, dramatically increasing his decision-making power. With his tenure extended for a third term, Xi’s writ will remain unchallenged for quite some time. In 2023, we can expect President Xi to dominate both the national and international scene. This gives him a huge advantage over other global leaders.  

Based on President Xi’s speeches at the CCP Congress in 2022, we can identify China’s focus areas for action in 2023. Among these, Global Security Initiative (GSI), the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) are of special interest as they provide a central global role to China. The US considers the GSI as a challenger to the Quad initiative. GSI aims at staying committed to comprehensive, cooperative, sustainable security, respecting sovereignty, territorial integrity of all countries. India’s neighbours are likely to be invited to join the GSI; already, unconfirmed reports indicate China has approached Nepal to join the initiative. 

GDI is to improve China’s role as a leader in the global development agenda. President Xi proposed the GDI at the UN General Assembly in 2021. It seeks to expedite the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The GDI has received the support of over 100 countries. More than 60 countries have joined the Group of Friends of GDI. Of course, internally China will be busy with overall economic recovery to improve its economic performance in 2023. China is expected to follow proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy to facilitate this. 

In his first comments after the latest round of talks between Indian and Chinese military commanders, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China is ready to work with India for the “steady and sound growth” of bilateral ties and the two countries are committed to upholding stability at the border areas. Wang Yi’s palliative words on “growth” of bilateral ties after the latest round of talks on December 20 have failed to make any progress in resolving the remaining issues along the LAC.

We may well end the year 2023 writing about the 30th round of talks; you never know what Emperor Xi can pull out of his hat! 

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

SRI LANKA PRESIDENT’S PRIORITY IN 2023

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2022 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2023  www.security-risk.com

Learnings from 2022

Sri Lanka did not cover itself with glory in the year 2022. But the year is a remarkable one in Sri Lanka' political history.  The spontaneous Aragalaya protestors   demonstrated that they cannot be taken for granted by their elected representatives. It did not matter if they were Rajapaksas - their heroes of yesterday. The protestors’ battle cry “GotaGoGama” saw the unseemly termination of the rule of the Terminator of Tamil separatists - President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. It has shown that getting elected to the high office of President is not enough; it lasts only so long as people accept it.

Events overtook the Machiavellian plans of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. He was forced to quit home and office in the face of massive public protests. It showed enjoying parliamentary support is not enough to sustain power, when people are determined to throw you out. The Hindu correspondent in Colombo Meera Srinivasan eloquently puts it:“When you hear ordinary citizens articulate their desire for a better future and country, the message resonates across borders and contexts. At one level, Sri Lankans were resisting leaders who they held responsible for their economic distress. At another, a mass uprising showed that no leader is invincible, and no might is bigger than people’s power.”

The transformation of seven-time Prime Minister and nominated member of parliament Ranil Wickremesinghe, brought in as “night watchman” PM, as President in a crisis, validates another clichéd aphorism: “fortune favours the brave.” But Wickremesinghe, a veteran of many political battles for survival, had the courage to step into the shaky chair. He quickly put together his jerry-built government to stave (save?) the country from plunging into chaos.

The President’s galaxy of ministers are mostly old faces with new labels, with a sprinkle of younger aspirants.  It is still intact there, to usher in the new year, disproving the naysayers. This showed that President Wickremesinghe had a much better understanding of crisis management than the Rajapaksas. Despite the anachronism of his survival as President depends upon pro-Rajapaksa MPs, evidently most people feel his priorities are right. Otherwise, Aragalaya protests would have probably continued. It also showed that people are ready to give the leader time and space to get his act together. President Wickremesinghe’s actions show that he is still wary of muted Aragalaya protestors watching from the wings. Though the threat of Aragalaya has taken a backseat from the political mainstream, hopefully it will force the political class to prioritise people’s needs first.

It is the historical Aragalaya movement that propelled President Wickremesinghe to power. It showed the failure of the traditional tools of state instruments of power including security personnel to quell the protests, Though the movement has seemingly dissipated now, its subterranean presence can be seen now in protests by students and staff in universities, among monks and civil society organisations. So, it is not enough to find berths for youth representatives in advisory bodies of the government. Good governance, rule of law and impartial judiciary will satisfy most of them.

Corruption and cronyism seem to be endemic in every action of the government. For long people have put up with it. The Aragalaya movement has sown the seeds of distrust of the political class in the minds of the people. If Sri Lanka has to survive as a stable democracy, politicians must regain the trust of the people. In this context, Winston Churchill’s words in the House of Commons come to mind. “At the bottom of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper. No amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the overwhelming importance of that point.”

As Sir Martin Gilbert, leading historian, and Churchill’s official biographer, says: “Parliamentary democracy is an easy concept to grasp but a difficult one to sustain. Throughout the Twentieth Century, and into our present Twenty First Century, the institutions and ideals of parliamentary democracy have been under continual threat. The power of totalitarian regimes to dominate their own people is – and remains – attractive to those who wish to control the life of a nation without checks and balances.” These words hold true to Sri Lanka’s present situation as China with its increasing global clout might appear as an attractive alternative. A dissatisfied population may be easily swayed to ignore that it is a one-party “democracy” of 21^st century Communism of the Chinese kind.

Agenda for 2023

Sri Lanka is stepping into 2023 with the economy limping on crutches with the tourism industry and export trade taking a beating. The promised IMF recovery package is yet to materialize. Peoples’ woes of continuing price rise, shortage of essential food stuff and energy resources are making life difficult. The scars of Covid pandemic are still there and the flare up of a new variant spreading fast in China, European countries and the US portends ill of a revival of the pandemic in the new year. There is no end in sight to the early end to the Ukraine war. This has queered the strategic stability of Sri Lanka’s environment. Its fall out is being felt in Sri Lanka’s relations with major powers competing for dominating the Indo-Pacific.  

The President's agenda for 2023 will have to be planned in this environment. The year 2023 is going to be a year of long weekends with nine of them falling on Fridays and Mondays. In other words, it will be a year of less than nine months of work. So whatever Sri Lanka plans to achieve will have to factor time as an invaluable resource. In management terms, this would mean investing in short-term projects that yield quick results to stoke the feeling of achievement to raise the morale of the people. Indian experience has shown extensive computerisation of government systems can achieve this. 

The first item on the President’s agenda for 2023 seems to be to resolve “the Tamil issue” by February 4, 2023 before the nation celebrates 75^th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s independence in March. Ethnic reconciliation had been featured as an important item on the agenda of all presidents, except for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The veteran hero of the separatist war, on becoming president made it clear that Sri Lanka was for the majority - Sinhala Buddhists. Of course, despite all the fanfare with which the ethnic issue has been featured in the agenda of successive presidents no discernible results have been achieved. Of course, the only exception is the 13th amendment that created provincial councils. Even that was sent to the halfway house, when the Rajapaksas prioritised pleasing the Sinhala Buddhist constituency, over reconciliation of minorities.  

President Wickremesinghe is a past master in using ethnic reconciliation as an effective political tool to garner public support. He had spearheaded the UNP protests against the 2000 draft constitution bill moved by President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The UNP MPs set fire to the draft of the bill in the parliament. The draft 2000 constitution contained power sharing proposals that could have ended the ethnic confrontation. It never saw the light of the day and Sri Lanka missed an opportunity to bring the ethnic issue to a closure. It was a costly political expediency that cost the nation dearly, as 100,000 people lost their lives in the Eelam wars that followed.

The Yahapalana government of President Maithripala Sirisena with PM Wickremesinghe went to the extent of preparing a draft constitution fielded by the constituent assembly. But it never saw the light of the day perhaps because both the President and PM had their own political agenda. Considering this background, President Wickremesinghe’s deadline for resolving the Tamil issue by February 4, 2023 seems unrealistic. However, the President appeared to be making the right moves – all party conferences, palaver with the leaders of Tamil, Muslim and like minded leaders of other political parties. He has opened offices in Vavuniya and Mannar to keep his ear to the grind wheel.

But the President must reckon with the elephant in the room – the Sinhala Buddhist rural masses. They need to be convinced that the Tamil issue is the priority when the whole country is locked in the struggle for survival. Can President Wickremesinghe convince them to resolve the four decade long ethnic issue eating into the vitals of Sri Lanka? Only time will tell.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com  Website: https://col.hariharan.info]