Col R Hariharan
Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2022 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2023 www.security-risk.com
Learnings from 2022
Sri Lanka did not cover itself with glory in the
year 2022. But the year is a remarkable one in Sri Lanka'
political history. The spontaneous Aragalaya protestors
demonstrated that they cannot be taken for granted by their elected
representatives. It did not matter if they were Rajapaksas - their heroes
of yesterday. The protestors’ battle cry “GotaGoGama” saw the unseemly
termination of the rule of the Terminator of Tamil separatists - President
Gotabaya Rajapaksa. It has shown that getting elected to the high office of
President is not enough; it lasts only so long as people accept it.
Events overtook the Machiavellian plans of Prime
Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. He was forced to quit home and office in the face
of massive public protests. It showed enjoying parliamentary support is not
enough to sustain power, when people are determined to throw you out. The Hindu
correspondent in Colombo Meera Srinivasan eloquently puts it:“When you hear
ordinary citizens articulate their desire for a better future and country, the
message resonates across borders and contexts. At one level, Sri Lankans were
resisting leaders who they held responsible for their economic distress. At
another, a mass uprising showed that no leader is invincible, and no might is
bigger than people’s power.”
The transformation of seven-time Prime Minister and
nominated member of parliament Ranil Wickremesinghe, brought in as “night
watchman” PM, as President in a crisis, validates another clichéd aphorism:
“fortune favours the brave.” But Wickremesinghe, a veteran of many political
battles for survival, had the courage to step into the shaky chair. He quickly
put together his jerry-built government to stave (save?) the country from
plunging into chaos.
The President’s galaxy of ministers are mostly old
faces with new labels, with a sprinkle of younger aspirants. It is still
intact there, to usher in the new year, disproving the
naysayers. This showed that President Wickremesinghe had a much better
understanding of crisis management than the Rajapaksas. Despite the anachronism
of his survival as President depends upon pro-Rajapaksa MPs, evidently most
people feel his priorities are right. Otherwise, Aragalaya protests would have
probably continued. It also showed that people are ready to give the leader
time and space to get his act together. President Wickremesinghe’s actions show
that he is still wary of muted Aragalaya protestors watching from the wings.
Though the threat of Aragalaya has taken a backseat from the political
mainstream, hopefully it will force the political class to prioritise people’s
needs first.
It is the historical Aragalaya movement that
propelled President Wickremesinghe to power. It showed the failure of the
traditional tools of state instruments of power including security personnel to
quell the protests, Though the movement has seemingly dissipated now, its
subterranean presence can be seen now in protests by students and staff in
universities, among monks and civil society organisations. So, it is not enough
to find berths for youth representatives in advisory bodies of the government.
Good governance, rule of law and impartial judiciary will satisfy most of them.
Corruption and cronyism seem to be endemic in every
action of the government. For long people have put up with it.
The Aragalaya movement has sown the seeds of distrust of the political
class in the minds of the people. If Sri Lanka has to survive as a stable
democracy, politicians must regain the trust of the people. In this context,
Winston Churchill’s words in the House of Commons come to mind. “At the bottom
of all the tributes paid to democracy is the little man, walking into the
little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of
paper. No amount of rhetoric or voluminous discussion can possibly diminish the
overwhelming importance of that point.”
As Sir Martin Gilbert, leading historian, and
Churchill’s official biographer, says: “Parliamentary democracy is an easy
concept to grasp but a difficult one to sustain. Throughout the Twentieth
Century, and into our present Twenty First Century, the institutions and ideals
of parliamentary democracy have been under continual threat. The power of totalitarian
regimes to dominate their own people is – and remains – attractive to those who
wish to control the life of a nation without checks and balances.” These words
hold true to Sri Lanka’s present situation as China with its increasing global
clout might appear as an attractive alternative. A dissatisfied population may
be easily swayed to ignore that it is a one-party “democracy” of 21st
century Communism of the Chinese kind.
Agenda for 2023
Sri Lanka is stepping into 2023 with the economy
limping on crutches with the tourism industry and export trade taking a
beating. The promised IMF recovery package is yet to materialize. Peoples’ woes
of continuing price rise, shortage of essential food stuff and energy resources
are making life difficult. The scars of Covid pandemic are still there and the
flare up of a new variant spreading fast in China, European countries and the
US portends ill of a revival of the pandemic in the new year. There is no end
in sight to the early end to the Ukraine war. This has queered the strategic
stability of Sri Lanka’s environment. Its fall out is being felt in Sri Lanka’s
relations with major powers competing for dominating the Indo-Pacific.
The President's agenda for 2023 will have to be
planned in this environment. The year 2023 is going to be a year of long
weekends with nine of them falling on Fridays and Mondays. In other words, it
will be a year of less than nine months of work. So whatever Sri Lanka plans to
achieve will have to factor time as an invaluable resource. In management
terms, this would mean investing in short-term projects that yield quick
results to stoke the feeling of achievement to raise the morale of the people.
Indian experience has shown extensive computerisation of government systems can
achieve this.
The first item on the President’s agenda for 2023
seems to be to resolve “the Tamil issue” by February 4, 2023 before the nation
celebrates 75th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s independence in March.
Ethnic reconciliation had been featured as an important item on the agenda of
all presidents, except for Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The veteran hero of the
separatist war, on becoming president made it clear that Sri Lanka was for the
majority - Sinhala Buddhists. Of course, despite all the fanfare with which the
ethnic issue has been featured in the agenda of successive presidents no
discernible results have been achieved. Of course, the only exception is the
13th amendment that created provincial councils. Even that was sent to the
halfway house, when the Rajapaksas prioritised pleasing the Sinhala Buddhist
constituency, over reconciliation of minorities.
President Wickremesinghe is a past master in using
ethnic reconciliation as an effective political tool to garner public support.
He had spearheaded the UNP protests against the 2000 draft constitution bill
moved by President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The UNP MPs set fire to the draft of
the bill in the parliament. The draft 2000 constitution contained power sharing
proposals that could have ended the ethnic confrontation. It never saw the
light of the day and Sri Lanka missed an opportunity to bring the ethnic issue
to a closure. It was a costly political expediency that cost the nation dearly,
as 100,000 people lost their lives in the Eelam wars that followed.
The Yahapalana government of President Maithripala
Sirisena with PM Wickremesinghe went to the extent of preparing a draft
constitution fielded by the constituent assembly. But it never saw the light of
the day perhaps because both the President and PM had their own political
agenda. Considering this background, President Wickremesinghe’s deadline for
resolving the Tamil issue by February 4, 2023 seems unrealistic. However, the
President appeared to be making the right moves – all party conferences,
palaver with the leaders of Tamil, Muslim and like minded leaders of other
political parties. He has opened offices in Vavuniya and Mannar to keep his ear
to the grind wheel.
But the President must reckon with the elephant in
the room – the Sinhala Buddhist rural masses. They need to be convinced that
the Tamil issue is the priority when the whole country is locked in the
struggle for survival. Can President Wickremesinghe convince them to resolve
the four decade long ethnic issue eating into the vitals of Sri Lanka? Only
time will tell.
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI
specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of
the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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