Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives February 2023 | South Asia Security Trends March 2023 | www.security-risks.com
February ended as a month of discontent for the public after the
government raised power tariffs for a second time on February 15. It was said
to be the last of 15 conditions to be met for the International Monetary Fund’s
(IMF) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of $2.9 billion. But the uncertainties over
the EFF are not over as the IMF is yet to receive assurance from China as India
and the Paris Club have done. China has offered only a two-year moratorium on
its debts.
Opposition SJB MP and economist Dr Harsha De Silva, while
strongly condemning the raising of power tariffs for a second time, said Sri
Lanka could technically still receive IMF support. He said it can be done
through Lending into Official Arrears Policy (LOAP) with support from the US,
if 50% of debtors have agreed to restructure their facilities. He suggested
that if loans from the China Development Bank can be moved under commercial
loans instead of bilateral loans, this could be achieved.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe speaking at various forums has
focused on economic recovery. While addressing a Rotary gathering on February
18, he emphasised the importance of economic recovery and improving citizens
quality of life. He said democracy depends on the maintenance of public order
which requires law and order. Following the country’s economic recovery, next
year it would be able to decide on the future it wants, with the use of
the ballot (italics added), clearly indicating he was
against the LG election.
Addressing Tax Forum 2023 on February 21, he strongly defended
the current tax policy, as a rescue operation and not a normal tax policy. If
the policy is disrupted, Sri Lanka will not be able to join the IMF programme
and lose the opportunity to do business with foreign countries.
The President is applying his masterly skills at obfuscation to
handle questions on the long overdue LG elections. The election scheduled for
March 9 stands postponed as the Election Commission had been facing a number of
structural and financial issues to conduct the elections. The air has been
thick for the last two months with questions on LG elections from all sides,
ranging from semi literate politicians, sensationalising paparazzi,
sanctimonious but erudite civil society leaders and sermonising do-gooders who
shun responsibility.
The President’s speech on the LG election issue in parliament on
February 23 is an eloquent example of obfuscation. He said “There is no
election to be postponed. I have so far not got into this debate on elections
as I kept out of it on the grounds that I will not get involved in politics.
However, today, we hear the Election Commission will inform Courts that the
election cannot be held since an affidavit has been submitted. I will speak on
it, as otherwise it will be unfair on the part of the Treasury Secretary. The
Commission has been informed by the Treasury Secretary that they are unable to
provide necessary funds to conduct the elections. That is not true. It was I
who first informed the Election Commission in December that due to the economic
situation, it was not possible to hold the elections.
President Wickremesinghe appears to be a votary of 50s British
humourist Stephen Potter who authored Lifemanship series of
books. In that era of self-help manuals of the Dale Carnegie variety, Potter
focused on books with less exalted goals of survival issues like: “winning
without actually cheating (Gamesmanship), “creative intimidation
(One-Upmanship)”, and “making the other man feel that something has gone wrong
however slightly” (“Lifemanship”). The President seems to be using all the
ploys of Potter to confuse the nation reeling under unmanageable price rise of
daily necessities.
Obfuscation is the erudite man’s quibbling in action. Oxford
Languages explains it as “the action of making something obscure, unclear or
unintelligible, when confronted with sharp questions they resort to
obfuscation.”
Successful politicians develop their skills at the art of
obfuscation to difficult questions from the paparazzi, awkward questions from
the informed audience and perhaps, to handle embarrassing moments with their
girlfriends. If there is an award for obfuscation in politics, President
Wickremesinghe will win a platinum award. Perhaps, he can’t be faulted for it
because probably that came, when he earned the President’s chair without a
popular mandate after a severe drubbing in the general elections.
But time may be running out for such gamesmanship, if we go by
the mood of the people in the thousands who had gathered in protest in Colombo
on February 26. The National People's Power (NPP) led by the Janatha Vimukthi
Peramuna(JVP) held a massive protest against the postponement of the LG
elections by the government in Colombo. NPP and JVP leaders including MP Anura
Kumar Dissanayake and NPP MP Vijitha Herath had joined the protest. Prior to
the protest, magistrate courts concerned had issued orders preventing the
protests. Orders were also issued against 26 persons including Dissanayake from
marching towards Galle Face Green and the Presidential Secretariat. When the
protestors gathered in strength and wanted to march towards Colombo Fort area
they were stopped by the police. Meanwhile, reinforcements of police in riot
gear and army personnel joined the police. Police used tear gas and water
cannons to disperse the restive crowd which were shouting anti-Wickremesinghe
slogans. In the melee that followed more than 20 persons were hospitalised. One
of the NPP candidates for LG election who was hospitalised succumbed to his
injuries. Police action in crushing the public protest has been condemned by
civil society and even political parties not supporting the NPP-JVP combine.
Meanwhile 15 unions of the Ceylon Electricity Board employees
are already protesting against the structural changes and tariff revisions.
Trade unions of several sectors are scheduled to go on strike on March 1
against the recently introduced tax policy. Meanwhile, President Wickremesinghe
has signed a gazette notification declaring several services related to ports,
airports and passenger transport services as essential services.
Clearly the President faces Hobson’s choice.
Tailpiece: Resurrection of Prabhakaran : On February 13, 2023, Tamil nationalist movement leader Pazha Nedumaran resurrected the ghost of Velupillai Prabhakaran, the LTTE leader who was slain on May 19, 2009 towards the end of the Eelam War. The aging former Congress leader from Tamil Nādu claimed Prabhakaran was still alive and would appear in public shortly. He said the LTTE leader was “hale and robust” and urged the Tamil people to rally behind him. The news failed to animate anyone. [written on February 28, 2023]
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism,
served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri
Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies.
Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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