Col R
Hariharan |Magazine| Special | October 13, 2023| India Legal
The Hamas flooded the social media showing scenes of bravado,
including the taking of 150 hostages and killing of innocent civilians—women
and children—shouting Allahu Akbar. A TikTok video circulating showed Israeli Rear
Admirals, Brigadier Generals and Lt Generals “captured” by the Hamas.
Israel is in a state of war, declared Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and
vowed to destroy the Hamas. Probably, he considers it an opportunity to settle
scores with the Hamas. As defence minister, Netanyahu had quit over Ariel
Sharon’s government’s decision to forcibly remove nearly 10,000 Israeli
citizens from the settlements in Gaza, after handing over governance to
Palestine authority in 2005.
Israel has recalled 3,00,000 reservists to join the army even as it hunted out
the Hamas infiltrators in communities close to the Gaza border. Israeli rockets
and missiles hit suspected Hamas hideouts in Gaza, flattening many multi-storey
buildings. According to Israeli media by Day 6 of the attack, at least 1,300
Israelis have been killed and over 7,400 people in all wounded. The Gaza Health
Ministry said 447 children and 248 women were among the 1,417 Palestinians
killed by Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The IDF said it is holding 1,500 bodies
of militants. And the body count is likely to grow as the end of war is nowhere
in sight. Over 3,30,000 people in Gaza have been forced to flee their homes
after Israel rockets and bombs hit residential buildings, according to the UN.
Israeli Energy Minister Israel Katz has said there will be no supply of
electricity, fuel or water to Gaza until the Hamas releases Israelis taken as
hostages. And UN experts have warned of impending human disaster when Israel
launches its ground offensive in Gaza.
Netanyahu has announced the forming of an “emergency government” with
Opposition leader Benny Gantz, a former defence minister and army chief for the
duration of the war. The three-member “war cabinet” would include Netanyahu,
Gantz and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.
The IDF is preparing for the widely expected ground offensive in
Gaza. Media reports indicate tens of thousands of Israeli forces have been
massed along the Gaza border and also along the northern border with Lebanon,
where Hezbollah, the Shia militant group, is based in Lebanon. There is a
general expectation that it could join in the war, when the IDF launches its
ground offensive in Gaza.
In a chilling statement, Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, while
addressing the troops deployed along the Gaza border, asserted that Gaza will
“never go back to what it was”. He said: “I have released all the restraints.
We have regained control of the area and we are moving to a full offence. You
will have the ability to change the reality here. You have seen the prices
being paid and you will get to see the change. Hamas wanted a change; it will
change 180 degrees from what it thought.” “They will regret this moment, Gaza
will never go back to what it was,” he added. The minister said that Israel
with all its might and without compromise, would eliminate “whoever comes to
decapitate, murder women, Holocaust survivors.”
Gallant was echoing the words of Interior Minister Eli Yishai’s
comment when Operation Pillar of Defense was launched in November 2012. Yishai
said: “The goal of the operation is to send Gaza back to the Middle Ages.” It
seems Gaza has now bounced back from the Middle Ages, after 11 years to haunt
Israel and yet another Israeli minister.
Intelligence Failure
Lt General Herzi Halevi, IDF chief of staff, has admitted to
shortcomings that allowed Hamas’ incursion and significant casualties on
Saturday. The Times of Israel quoted him as saying:
“The IDF is responsible for the security of the country and its citizens, and
on Saturday morning in the area surrounding the Gaza Strip, we did not handle
it. We will learn, we will investigate, but now is the time for war.”
But the IDF may not be wholly responsible. In a way, the Hamas’
war was waiting to happen as PM Netanyahu has been increasing “the pressure
cooker syndrome” of Palestinians living on the West bank, eating into their
territory relentlessly to settle new Jewish communities. This could have drawn
the focus of the IDF on the West Bank. While the PM’s right-wing supporters
applauded him, political preoccupation seems to have ignored the ever-present
security threat posed by the Hamas.
The Chairman of US House Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul is reported
to have told a closed door intelligence briefing that Egypt had warned Israel
three days earlier that “an event like this could happen.” Undoubtedly, Shin
Bet, responsible for internal security, and the legendary Mossad, known for its
intelligence exploits, both seem to have failed.
In a podcast on BBC Radio, Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6,
called it “the failure of imagination”. He said there were two reasons why
Israel’s intelligence had no knowledge of the impending attack. Firstly, “the
really big failures that are labelled as intelligence failures…are in fact
failures of imagination”. Citing 9/11 as a classic example, Younger said: “The
assumption was not that we were vulnerable to anything in terms of this type of
attack. The assumption was that it essentially wasn’t possible.” He
further added: “And it is my assumption therefore… that there will have been
data breaking through, which probably could have been interpreted differently…
but people were just not looking at it in that way.” This is what happened in
the intelligence failure that led to 9/11 too!
Israel’s intelligence failure should caution Indian intelligence honchos and
leadership, who depend upon information from multiple sources. They need to
remember Albert Einstein’s words: “We cannot solve our problems with the same
thinking we used when we created them.”
International Dimension
Unmindful of all the complexities and calamities, security
pandits from both sides are debating on the TV, the semantics of war and who is
responsible for it. Geographically for over 75 years, the Levant has frequently
faced the tectonics of war, more than any other part of the globe. So, the
international dimension of the conflict is hogging the limelight. And its
Indian dimension is of special interest as India-Israel relations have become
closer than ever before in the last nine years. Just as the Ukraine War divided
the world, the Israeli offensive against the Hamas also seems to have found its
“us and they”.
The White House released a joint statement of leaders of the US,
France, Germany, Italy and UK pledging “to support Israel in its efforts to
defend itself and the surprise attacks by militant group Hamas”. They added
that they recognised “the legitimate aspirations of the Palestine people”, but
said the Hamas offered “nothing for the Palestine people other than more terror
and bloodshed.”
India was among the first countries to show solidarity with
Israel. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an X message on October 7 wrote:
“Deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel. Our thoughts and
prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in
solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour.” India’s gesture has been
appreciated by Israel. On the other hand, China seems to have disappointed
Israel, when it issued a vanilla statement. It called on “relevant parties to
remain calm, exercise restraint and immediately end the hostilities to protect
civilians and avoid further deterioration of the situation”. Later President Xi
Jinping tried to strengthen the statement to condemn “all violence and attacks
on civilians” without specifically naming the Hamas.
NATO countries have told Israel’s defence minister that they
stood by his country after the attack by the Hamas, but urged his forces to
respond with “proportionality”. However, after the defence ministers’ meeting,
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was unequivocal in his support to
Israel. After condemning the Hamas’ “indefensible attack on civilians,” he
called for the immediate release of all hostages. He added: “Israel has the
right to defend itself and as the conflict unfolds, the protection of civilians
is essential.” He cautioned: “No nation or organisation hostile to Israel
should seek to take advantage of the situation or to escalate the conflict.”
The 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) strongly
condemned the “ongoing Israeli military aggression against the Palestinian
people in the Gaza Strip”. It considered the brutal aggression against the
Palestinian people a blatant international and humanitarian law violation and
“a war crime”. Did OIC’s stand reflect Saudi Arabia’s views as it is
headquartered in Jeddah?
Some clarity emerged when Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the Palestine-Israeli conflict on
October 11. In a telephone conversation, they discussed the need to end war
crimes against Palestine, according to Iranian state media. The Saudi crown
prince “affirmed the Kingdom is making all possible efforts in communicating
with all international and regional parties to stop the ongoing escalation” according
to the Saudi state news agency.
Qatar’s foreign ministry’s blame of Israel for the recent
escalation of violence with the Palestinians is not surprising as the Hamas
headquarters is located in Qatar. It called for restraint from both sides and
urged the international community to prevent Israel from using these events as
a pretext for a disproportionate war against Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
India’s Support to Israel
India was one of the first countries to recognise the
Palestinian cause; in fact, India had been one of its biggest supporters in
international forums. India established full diplomatic relations with Israel
in 1992. Despite this, their relations had been at a low key, as it was
hyphenated with Arab countries’ support to Palestine.
However, India-Israel relations became closer and multifaceted
after PM Modi came to power in 2014. Modi was the first Indian PM to visit
Israel in July 2017, when the two countries signed seven MoUs. The MoUs covered
a wide range of subjects, ranging from industrial innovation, water
conservation to cooperation on diverse subjects like electric propulsion of
small satellites. The visit of PM Netanyahu, a year later, further reinforced
the relations.
These visits paved the way for various Israeli unicorns to
operate in India. In 2020, Israel’s National Cyber Directorate and Indian
Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In) decided to enhance capacity building
initiatives. The relations between the two countries were further cemented when
India joined Israel, USA and UAE to form the I2-U2 grouping in 2022. This paved
the way for close cooperation for joint initiatives in a number areas in water,
energy, transportation, space, health and food security sectors.
Over the years, Israel has emerged as the biggest defence
supplier, next only to Russia. With Israel’s collaboration India has been able
to develop and produce state-of-the-art systems such as Barak 8 surface to air
defence missiles, Skystriker drones, etc. In May 2023, India and Israel signed
a Vision on Defence Cooperation statement during the visit of the Israeli
defence minister. It formalised further collaboration and production of a whole
range of defence equipment, particularly in development of UAVs and light
combat aircraft and helicopters, so essential to guard our Himalayan frontiers.
Israel’s close involvement in India’s defence preparedness has to be understood
while studying the relations between the two countries. This is more so, when
Israel is confronting an Islamic terror group like the Hamas, even as India
continues to support a just deal for the Palestine people.
India clarified its stand in a carefully worded statement issued
by its Ministry of External Affairs, reiterating the country’s support for a
sovereign, independent and viable Palestine state. It described the Hamas
assault on Israel as terrorist attacks, adding clarity to India’s position on
the subject.[RH1]
—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on
South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies