Dhairya Maheshwari | Sputnik Opinion | October 6, 2023
Both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese
President Xi Jinping were among the first world leaders to congratulate
Maldives’ President-elect Mohamed Muizzu after his election win.
Maldives’
incoming President Mohamed Muizzu has urged the outgoing administration
headed by Ibrahim Mohamed Solih to put a hold on “execution of
bilateral conventions and agreements”, according to a letter cited in Maldivian
media on Thursday.
The
decision comes as the Maldivian President-elect doubled down on his election campaign pledge to
expel foreign troops from the Indian Ocean nation since winning the
presidential runoff last weekend.
Muizzu, who
represents a coalition of Progressive Party of Maldives and People’s
National Congress (PNC), has been a backer of the ‘India Out’ campaign
while in opposition. New Delhi has denounced the ‘India Out’ campaign, amid
threats against Indian diplomats and interests on the archipelago.
India is
the biggest defense capacity-building and a major development partner of the
Maldives.
Since Muizzu’s election,
the Indian government has called upon the incoming administration in
Male to “collaborate closely to address shared challenges confronting our
region”.
“The focus
of our partnership with Maldives has always been on capacity building and
working together to address our shared challenges and priorities, you know,
including security challenges and priorities,” Ministry of External Affairs
(MEA) spokesperson told a regular briefing in New Delhi on Thursday
Sputnik
India spoke to Colonel (retired) R Hariharan, formerly the head of
intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) in Sri Lanka and a fellow
at Chennai Centre for China Studies (C3S).
Edited
excerpts:
Sputnik
India: Why is Maldives critical for Indian interests in the Indian Ocean?
Hariharan: Maintaining
good relations with India is more important for Maldives as it depends upon
India for almost everything, as the smallest country in Asia with half a
million population lacks resources, even freshwater. Tourism is its mainstay.
Maldives is
a chain of 26 atolls, stretching from Ihavandhippolhu Atoll in the north to
Addu Atoll in the south, spanning 90,000 sq km of territory across the Equator
in the Arabian Sea. It is located 750 km Southwest of India and Sri Lanka.
Historically,
Maldives has ethnic, religious and cultural connectivity with India and Sri
Lanka. Maldives’ language Dhivehi is a dialect of Sinhala and with a script
derived from Arabic. In fact, Minicoy the southernmost and second largest
island in the Indian territory of Lakshadweep, has around 12,000 Mahl people of
Maldives ethnicity.
Maldives-India
relations have been close since colonial rule ended in 1965 and Maldives became
a republic. India that responded immediately to President Maumoon Gayoom’s call
for assistance to thwart a coup attempt in Maldives in 1988. India had been
swift to provide help and succour during the 2004 tsunami and when the country
faced a drinking water crisis in 2014.
The Indian
Ocean’s strategic importance has gone up after President Xi Jinping’s Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013 to increase China’s strategic
outreach across continents.
The 21st
Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) forms the oceanic part of BRI infrastructural
connectivity. It enables China to secure passage for its international maritime
trade to pass through bottlenecks in the Indian Ocean.
Maldives
and Sri Lanka are important pivots for the success of the MSR, more so after
the Quad framework started taking
shape to check increasing Chinese strategic presence in Indian Ocean.
President
Xi Jinping was the first Chinese head of state to visit Maldives since the two
countries established diplomatic relations in 1972. His visit to Maldives on
May 15, 2014, on his way to Sri Lanka and India, underlined the island nation’s
importance in Xi’s strategic outreach under BRI.
Though
Chinese companies had been involved in project contracting in Maldives since
1985, it made a quantum jump after former President Abdulla Yameen (a political
ally of Muizzu), with a strong pro-China stance and marked hostility towards
India came to power in 2013. Not only has Yameen responded to Xi’s invitation
to join the MSR during his visit but also signed a free trade pact with China a
few months later.
During
Yameen’s tenure as President till 2018, a number of Chinese infrastructure and
investment projects were executed. Male-Hulhumale bridge conceived in 2007. It
was constructed by China Harbour Engineering Company at a cost of $210 million.
Similarly,
Beijing Urban Construction Group replaced Indian contractor GMR, to complete
the stalled Male International Airport expansion project at Hulhumale in 2018.
Sputnik
India: How strong is the institutional defense partnership between India?
Hariharan:
India-Maldives institutional defence partnership is well established.
Even during
Abdulla Yameen’s rule tilted in favour of China, he signed the Indo-Maldivian
Action Plan for defence. Under the agreement, India would install 26 radars on
all the atolls to link up with the Indian coastal command. Indian Navy and the
Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) carry out joint surveillance and
patrolling activities.
India-Maldives
relations got a further boost after Prime Minister Narendra Modi adopted
the “Neighbourhood First” Policy when he came to power
in 2014.
India is
involved in a number of major infrastructure projects like the Greater Male
Connectivity project, cargo vessel services and capacity building and training
of MNDF and Maldivian civil servants in India and the Gulhifalhu Port Project.
Indian defence forces and MNDF regularly hold joint exercises.
India has
supplied a Dornier surveillance aircraft to Maldives to keep an eye on foreign
vessels traversing the Indian Ocean as well as casualty evacuation from
isolated islands and prevent poaching and drug smuggling in Maldivian waters.
After the
QUAD framework for Indo-Pacific security, the importance of the US military
base at the atoll of Diego Garcia in Chagos archipelago, around 1,713 km from
Maldives, has increased. This base was used during the US operations in
Afghanistan.
Sputnik
India: Should Muizzu be seen as pro-China? Do you expect Maldives to go closer
to China as opposed to 'India First' policy of the outgoing Solih
administration?
Hariharan: As
explained earlier, President Muizzu has no option but to maintain a functional
relationship with India, though he might be dubbed as pro-China (though he
maintains he is pro-Maldives).
Muizzu has used the
fictitious rhetoric of presence of foreign soldiers (a euphemism for Indian
troops) during his election campaign. The Indian High Commission in Male
has condemned such a malicious media campaign.
China has
definitely staged a political comeback with the success of the Muizzu. His
primary election campaign theme was removing Indian military personnel
stationed in the Maldives.
When the
Indian Ambassador Munu Mahawar called upon Muizzu, he urged New Delhi to
respect the decision of the people of Maldives to protect their sovereignty and
independence.
At the
meeting, he expressed confidence that India would cooperate on this matter. He
also expressed hope that the Indian government would facilitate the easy
repayment of loans taken by the current government of outgoing President
Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.
In his
remarks, the Indian Ambassador assured Muizzu of India's support and
cooperation in various development fields in the Maldives. He also affirmed that
India would fully respect the Maldives' sovereignty and expressed readiness to
negotiate facilitating loan repayment.
We can
expect Muizzu to take calculated steps to favour China, in preference to India.
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