Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives October 2023 | South Asia Security Trends November 2023 | www.security-risks.com
China’s Indian
Ocean priorities
The month had been a busy one for President Ranil
Wickremesinghe. He probably clocked more air mileage during October than any
other president did before him. He travelled across continents to fulfil overseas
engagements. As the Presidential Secretariat note on the 3rd Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI) Forum says President Wickremesinghe attended the
opening ceremony “in a show of solidarity.” During the visit, he met with
President Xi Jinping, who assured China would provide “friendly, practical and
timely support for Sri Lanka’s debt optimization programme.” China seems to
have timed its decision to restructure Sri Lanka’s debts on the eve of the
visit of the Sri Lanka head of state.
President Xi Jinping in his address at the inauguration of the
meeting announced eight major steps China will take to support “the joint
pursuit of high-quality BRI cooperation.” These steps include creating an
international multilateral network, supporting “a global open economy”,
practical cooperation strategies, promoting green development, fostering
opportunities for science and technology innovation, enhancing interpersonal relations
and encouraging “unbreakable ties among member countries.” In other words,
creating a new world order as visualised by President Xi.
These steps are likely to increase the strategic importance of
Sri Lanka for China. In particular, Sri Lanka will occupy a central role in
building a multidimensional Belt and Road connectivity network to integrate
ports, shipping and trading services under the Silk Road Maritime. Similarly,
Sri Lanka is likely to be geographically indispensable in building of the New
International Land-Sea Trade Corridor and the Air Silk Road. China will remove
all restrictions.
President Wickremesinghe in his bilateral meeting with the
Chinese President, expressed Sri Lanka’s hope to establish a maritime economic
corridor linking China, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and South Africa. It is interesting
to note President Xi Jinping acknowledged the challenging nature of this
endeavour and encouraged President Wickremesinghe to take the lead. It will be
interesting to see how and when President Wickremesinghe proceeds to walk the
talk and handle India’s reaction to it.
The arrival of Shi Yan 6, the Chinese geophysical and seismic
research ship, in Colombo Port on October 28 has to be viewed in the context of
China’s growing strategic interest in Indian Ocean. India and the US had been
expressing their concerns over the visit of Chinese dual use research ships
ever since the research vessel Yuan Wang 5 visited Sri Lanka last year. Sri
Lanka is reported have requested China to postpone the visit of Shi Yan 6 to
November. Apparently, China has turned down the request. The Ministry of
Foreign Affairs said the vessel has been authorised to carry out two-day survey
of the Western waters off Colombo. A team of scientists from the National
Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency (NARA) is joining the Chinese
researchers on board the vessel.
Of equal
interest is the arrival of warships of other navies to Sri Lanka around the
same time. Republic of Korea’s naval ship ROKS ‘Kwanggaeto the Great’ arrived
at Colombo port on October 26 on a formal visit. The Korean warship was to
depart the island on October 28. Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF)
destroyer Akebono (DD 108) also arrived at the Trincomalee harbour on an
official visit on October 28. The warship was to leave on October 31, to take
part in an exercise with Sri Lankan Naval ship off Trincomalee.
President Wickremesinghe’s tight ropewalk to balance the
relations with India and China is likely to get tougher when President Xi
Jinping starts implementing the eight major steps referred to “the joint
pursuit of high-quality BRI cooperation.” The strategic ripples that surrounded
the visit of Chinese maritime research ship Shi Yan 6 to Colombo during the
month is perhaps the forerunner of the strategic conundrum Sri Lanka will be
facing in the coming months, if not years.
Politics of cabinet rejig
On the home front, President
Wickremesinghe carried out the much- awaited Cabinet reshuffle. He replaced the
controversial health minister Keheliya Rambukwella, who survived a no
confidence motion against him after allegations of incompetence and corruption
in procurement of medicines surfaced. In his place, the President appointed the
better qualified Dr Ramesh Pathirana as Minister for Health. He will be the minister
for health in addition to the
portfolio of industries he is already holding. Similarly, Minister for
Agriculture Amaraweera will now hold the additional portfolio of plantation
industries. The President’s reshuffle exercise seems to have satisfied neither the ruling Sri
Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) nor the opposition parties. SLPP General
Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam expressing the party’s disappointment, criticised
the President for ignoring the SLPP’s significant support while allocating
ministerial berths. It is possible the President may carry out yet a minor
cabinet reshuffle to retain SLPP support.
However,
Rambukwella, despite the allegations of corruption, has been retained as Minister
for Environment. This sends a strong message that his continued influence
within the party and the government.
Election
schedule
President
Wickremesinghe fulfilled yet another popular expectation with the announcement
of election schedule at the UNP convention. As per the schedule the
presidential and the parliamentary elections will be held in 2024, followed by
provincial council elections in 2025. His speech at the convention convened to
rejuvenate the party as “smart” one, was probably a curtain raiser of his
election agenda.
He explained the
dire circumstances in which he became President and listed his achievements. The
seasoned leader sent an ominous warning of the future. He said “We
must confront this reality and seek answers. Some parties advocate for constitutional
changes, while others call for reforms in the presidency and government. They
request a change in leadership. However, I want to convey one thing: I cannot
rejuvenate this country without the support of other political parties….” A month more and Sri Lanka will usher in
an election year. As mandated in the Constitution, presidential elections are
scheduled for the second half. The second tranche of the IMF’s Extended Fund
Facility (EFF) is expected anytime now. The budget is less than two weeks away.
A nation waits in suspense…”
Suspense indeed, not for the
people, but for the political class (including the SLPP), who are probably in a
tizzy to find a suitable challenger to take on Wickremesinghe seeking one more
term.
On the economic
front, the good news is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given a
conditional nod to the staff level agreement for Sri Lanka to gain access to
SDR 254 million (about $330 million), subject to the approval of the IMF
Executive Board. The two IMF conditions are: a) implementation of all prior
actions b) completion of financing assurances on debt restructuring in a timely
manner. These are more easily said than done. Anti-Corruption Act was passed in
July 2023 to comply with IMF conditions; however, cases of corruption continue
to be reported in media. Two crypto fund companies have been approved to
operate in the special economic zone of Colombo Port City. World over crypto
fund operations have been mired in cases of money laundering. Enforcing
anti-corruption mandate is going to be a little more difficult with homegrown
access to crypto operations in SEZ, outside the pale of laws of the land.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist
on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian
Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai
Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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