Island Diplomacy

 

Can PM Modi uploading a few visuals of whistlestop trip to Lakshadweep on social media push the troubled India-Maldives relations further into the deep?

Col R Hariharan | Magazine |Special | India Legal |January 13, 2024

https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/india-maldives-ties-pm-modi-lakshadweep/

 India-Maldives relations have undergone a sea change after Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu came to power with an “India out” agenda. Chinese philosopher Lao Tse says: “While the Clear mind listens to a bird singing, the Stuffed-Full-of-Knowledge and Cleverness mind wonders what kind of bird is singing.”

The inveterate, pithy social blogger Harsh Goenka @hvgoenka summed up the galloping events in Lao Tse style: PM visits #Lakshadweep, social media uproar, Indian tourists boycott #Maldives, Maldivian ministers suspended, 5-star hotels and an airport coming up in Lakshadweep. All in lightning speed. This is the way the new India works – it cannot be undermined, it will fight back and hard.

There is, however, much more to it now. In the midst of the diplomatic row with India over derogatory remarks made by some Maldivian ministers, President Muizzu and his wife have just returned from a visit to Beijing. President Xi Jinping held in-depth talks with the visiting Maldivian president on January 10, following which the two countries signed 20 agreements. The agreements signed include tourism cooperation, disaster risk reduction, blue economy, and strengthening investment in the digital economy. The most far reaching of them is the agreement to elevate their bilateral relationship to Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership (CSCP). 

China’s foreign policy terminology uses specific terms to indicate the level of strategic partnership it enjoys with various countries. On top of the heap are Russia and Pakistan, which enjoy Beijing’s highest level of strategic partnership. With Russia, China has signed the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership for the New Era agreement. In the case of Pakistan, the agreement is called All Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership. Maldives will be the 19th country with which China has signed the CSCP agreement. Apparently, China reckons its relationship with Maldives will be on par with ASEAN countries. It is a level above India, which has signed a Strategic and Cooperative Partnership agreement with Beijing, like seven other countries, including Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

There are international, strategic security and internal narratives in India’s relations with Maldives which took a beating after Modi’s trip to Lakshadweep. To set the record straight, Modi never mentioned Maldives; he only said “I am still in awe of the stunning beauty of its islands and the incredible warmth of its people. I had the opportunity to interact with people in Agatti, Bangaram and Kavaratti” and the warm welcome he received from the people. In their response to PM’s message Indian netizens, including a few who were worked up over President Muizzu’s “India out” call, saw Lakshadweep as a substitute destination for Maldives. That was the red rag for Maldivian anti-India lobby, which retaliated with invectives on Indian PM and India.

Three junior Maldivian ministers of youth affairs—Malsha Shareef, Mariam Shiuna and Abdulla Mahzoom Majid posted a range of offensive X messages against the Indian PM. Shiuna called Modi a clown and an Israeli puppet and there were anti-Indian racist remarks too. In a damage control mode, Maldives government suspended the ministers. A Maldivian politician Zahid Rameez, a council member of the ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), scorned the idea of competition with Maldives, calling it delusional. “How can they provide the service we offer? How can they be so clean? The permanent smell in the rooms will be the biggest downfall.” These invectives are indicative of the mindset of those in power in Maldives. In an Indian TV interview, former Maldivian defence minister Mariya Didi called the ministers conduct as very irresponsible, “totally unprovoked, uncalled for something that you should not as ministers do with the closest neighbour, from whom we have had time immemorial relationships that are so close.”

In her interview, Didi, apparently referring to the suspended minister Abdulla Mahzoom Majid, said: “It is sad that one of them, the gentleman there, was a member of the armed forces and he had made remarks on social media that was not in line with the armed forces policy on social media. This was why he was dismissed from the armed forces.” She added: “because he [Majid] says something that they want to hear, he was brought in as a minister. The sad thing is, the same thing happens in the defence forces today. How are they going to maintain discipline there?” These remarks point to some serious issues as many Maldivian Defence Forces (MDF) personnel are trained in Indian defence institutions and take part in joint exercises and operations. If this arrangement is to be continued, India will have to carefully vet the MDF trainees to exclude radical Islamic elements among them. Will it be possible to do so without the cooperation of Maldivian authorities?

As a country steeped in conservative Islam, Maldives has a long history of links with fundamentalist sections of the religion. Pakistan has built madrasas and mosques in Maldives; it offers liberal scholarships to students from Maldives for religious education in Pakistan. When Pakistani security forces raided the Red Mosque to smoke out the Islamic militants accused of promoting terrorism in July 2007, some of the Maldivian students escaped from the mosque and returned home. Some of them were arrested by Maldivian authorities for suspected radical activity. The Red Mosque incident is considered one of the factors that contributed to the rise of Islamic radicalisation and militancy posing a serious threat to the government in the island nation.

At present, the Adalat party (Justice Party) and some NGOs, including Jamiyyathu Salaf (JS) and the Islamic Foundation of Maldives (IFM) imbued with fundamentalist beliefs are also responsible for spreading extremism in the country. In 2014, former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed revealed that up to 200 Maldivians were engaged in fighting for ISIS in Iraq and Syria. According to him, there were close links between the jihadist groups and the country’s military and the police force. Commissioner of Police Mohamed Hameed in a briefing for councillors in December 2019 revealed there were close to 1,400 Maldivians across the country, who have “fallen into extremist ideology to the point where they would not hesitate to take the life of the person next to them” According to him, out of 423 Maldivians who attempted to join jihadi terrorist organisations in Syria and Iraq, 173 entered the war zone. Hundreds of local extremists also travelled to Pakistan and Afghanistan before the Syrian civil war. On returning to Maldives, some of them have been spreading radical ideologies among the people.

There is evidence of IS jihadi elements operating in Maldives even now. Following are some of the recent incidents and activities involving IS Jihadi terrorists in Maldives:

·       On January 6, 2022, the FBI and two European Union nations in a joint operation nabbed Hood Mohamed Zahir in Vilimalé. Zahir was a suspected senior ISIS operative who ran media campaigns to incite terror attacks in Europe.

·       On May 6, 2021, an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated outside of the home of former President Mohamed Nasheed in Malé. He and four others were injured in the incident. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack in its Arabic weekly newsletter al-Naba.

·       On April 17, 2020, ISIS claimed responsibility for exploding five bombs at Mahibadhoo harbour, destroying a sea ambulance, four speedboats, and two dinghies. ISIS stated that the boats belonged to the “apostate Maldivian Government and its loyalists.” This was the first attack carried out by ISIS in the Maldives.

·       On February 4, 2020, a group of ISIS-inspired assailants stabbed and injured three foreign nationals near the Hulhumale Red­bull Park Ground in North Male Atoll. An extremist media outlet called al-Mustaqim confirmed the attack.

·       Some of the local jihadist affiliates in Maldives include soldiers of the Khilafah in the Maldives, Dot and al Mustaqim Media.

·       In 2021, the US Department of the Treasury designated 20 key leaders and financial facilitators of ISIS and al-Qa’ida in Maldives.

Counter terrorism cooperation between India and Maldives is an important aspect of their bilateral relations. These include sharing of information and intelligence on terrorists and their networks, capacity building of security and law enforcement forces, establishing Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism and Countering Violent Extremism and De-Radicalisation and coordinate their actions. Counter terrorism cooperation with India is important for Maldives as it not only provides security, but also gives confidence to international tourists, who are the main source of income for the country.

At the strategic level, Colombo Security Conclave (CSC), a trilateral initiative of India, Sri Lanka and Maldives at the National Security Advisor level was revived in 2020. The CSC covers four areas of cooperation—marine safety and security, terrorism and radicalisation, trafficking and organised crime and cyber security. It involves regular dialogues and joint exercises among the top security officials of the three countries. The CSC is poised to expand its membership to include Mauritius, Bangladesh and Seychelles as partners or observers. Navies of India and Sri Lanka along with MDF have been jointly patrolling to ensure their large EEZ is not exploited by foreign elements. It will be interesting to see how President Muizzu is going to handle this challenge.

Didi in her interview also raised the issue of (apparently MDF) using a Cessna aircraft instead of the IAF-manned Dornier aircraft in a recent search for a boy missing in the sea. If this news is correct, it would indicate MDF is not using the IAF crew and aircraft any more. Is MDF already implementing the President’s mandate of “India Out”? Probably, this issue came up when MDF chief Lt General Abdul Raheem Abdul Latheef met Indian Ambassador to Maldives Munu Mahawar in Male on December 25. India’s Defence Attache Capt Deepak Bali was also present at the discussion. According to a report on the Maldivian news site sun.mov. they “held discussions with India on enhancing existing defence cooperation between the two nations.” It further quoted the General saying that during the discussion the ongoing defence cooperation activities were reviewed, while avenues to move forward with military-to-military engagements were also considered.

Regardless of further developments in India’s relations with Maldives, India will have to consciously develop its security set up in the Union Territory of Lakshadweep archipelago of 36 islands. It has a population of around 70,000 Malayalam speaking Muslims living in the 10 inhabited islands. Lakshadweep gives India 20,000 sq km of territorial waters and 400,000 sq km of EEZ. It dominates the SLOCS of Nine Degree Channel through which thousands of ships cross every day. This makes it strategically as important as Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

At present the Indian Navy (IN) has a naval base INS Dweeprakshak, in Kavaratti island. Coast Guard stations exist in Kavaratti, Minicoy and Androth islands. Multiple efforts are on to develop the defence capabilities of the Islands. The Agatti airstrip is being extended to 3,200m (from 1,000m) to allow larger aircraft to take off. Navy plans to expand its infrastructure and operations on other islands such as Agatti and Minicoy to counter potential threats from piracy, terrorism and foreign naval intrusions.

By signing the CSCP agreement with China, President Muizzu has sent a clear signal to India that Maldives’dealings with India will be on a different plane than before. In his interview to The Times of India on January 4, Muizzu stressed that the majority of the sea routes of the Indian Ocean pass through or in proximity to Maldives. He said: “Securing sea lanes of communication is as vital to the Maldives and its stability and prosperity, as it is to the wider Indian Ocean region, global trade and commerce.” He wants Maldives to be contributing to the discussions and discourses on Indian Ocean security, not as an observer, “but an active partner in upholding rule based international order.”

In short, he wants Maldives to be treated on par with big powers, India and China. India should have no problem with this. But it will be interesting to watch how China, known for trampling smaller powers, treats its new found comprehensive strategic cooperative partner, if and when it comes in a big way in Maldives. Equally interesting will be how Muizzu will take forward his India narrative, as Maldives is dependent upon India for fresh vegetables, food stuff and construction material including sand. At times India had to step in to supply even fresh water to Male.

During his Beijing trip, President Muizzu praised the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Maldives, saying “they delivered the most significant infrastructure projects in Maldivian history”. Apparently, stung by the negative reaction to Maldives from Indian tourism, he appealed to China to send more tourists to Maldives, as before the Covid pandemic. President Muizzu during his trip to China has said he will be implementing the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China. He has also invited Chinese investment for completing the billion-dollar Velana international airport project. So we can expect to see more Chinese footfalls in Maldives. As long as they do not trample India’s interests it should be welcomed, after all a prosperous Maldives is in India’s interest. In any case, India should develop Lakshadweep’s tourism infrastructure while keeping its powder dry. 

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

Terrorists at our gates in 2024

 

This year will see a lot of action due to inimical forces across India’s borders. The government will have to be on guard and reinvent its approach to fighting militancy and not act with yesterday’s logic

Col R Hariharan | Magazine |Special | India Legal |January 5, 2024

https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/terrorists-jammu-and-kashmir-khalistan/

 

This year will be a crucial one in India’s fight against terrorism considering the patronage given by Pakistan and Canada to such elements. The new government that will be formed in India after the general elections will have its task cut out in tackling this menace.  

In keeping with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s zero-tolerance against terrorism, in 2023, New Delhi made holistic progress in the fight against this menace. Concerted action was taken on financial, legal, intelligence and operational systems to seal existing loopholes which were exploited by extremist elements as well as their front organisations. Security forces are being provided upgraded systems and equipment, including drones for their operations along the border. The National Investigation Agency had been active in tracing and prosecuting jihadi terrorists and sympathizers, as well as dismantling their support ecosystem.

Pictures of a milling crowd celebrating the New Year at the grandly lit-up Lal Chowk in Srinagar despite the minus 3.5 degree Celsius were a hit on social media. It showed that the troubled Union Territory (UT) was at last picking up the pieces of normal life. The South Asia Terrorism Portal’s comparative statistics on J&K for 2023 as against 2022 are also encouraging. The number of incidents involving killings has come down to 72 from 151. Only 12 civilians lost their lives as against 39. On the other hand, the losses of security forces marginally increased to 33 from 30, whereas the body count of terrorists fell to 87 from 193 in 2022.

But numbers alone do not tell the whole story. In mid-December, Army and BSF troops were put on alert after intelligence reports indicated that 250-300 militants were waiting at launch pads along the border. So far, they do not seem to have succeeded in infiltrating in strength. In 2023, for the first time, 50 out of the 72 terrorists killed, were foreigners, confirming reports of Pakistan facing a shortage of local recruits for induction in J&K. 

Assessments carried out by central agencies indicate that 91 militants, including 61 foreigners, are active in J&K, including the Rajouri-Poonch belt which has been the scene of insurgent activity since last October. Action has also been taken to dismantle the terrorists’ support system within J&K. The police there apprehended 291 terrorist associates, and 201 overground workers were charged under the Public Safety Act. The police claimed the UT had only 31 local terrorists, an all-time low, and the recruitment of locals into militancy has dropped by 80% in 2023 with only 21 new recruits.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah reviewed the security situation in J&K at a meeting on January 2 in Delhi. Lt Governor of J&K Manoj Sinha, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Army chief General Manoj Pande and intelligence officials were present. According to agency reports, Shah emphasised the need for the complete elimination of the terror ecosystem in accordance with the zero-tolerance approach against this menace.

But India’s fight against terrorism and insurgency does not end with J&K only. It extends to the sensitive border areas of Punjab, where Khalistan fringe elements supported by the deep state in Pakistan have been trafficking arms, narcotics and fake currency, often using drones. The Punjab BSF has claimed to have shot down over 100 drones during 2023. Unfortunately, Canada has become the hotbed of the Khalistani anti-India ecosystem. As External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, the issue at heart is the fact that Canadian politics have given space to Khalistani forces and allowed them to indulge in activities that are damaging relations with India. It is clearly not in India’s interest or Canada’s.

The issue is no longer a bilateral one between India and Canada after the former came to know of the involvement of Five Fingers, an intelligence alliance of the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. So far, Khalistani elements in Canada and the US have only been giving threatening statements against India and its diplomats, apart from desecrating some Hindu temples. But given the free run by Canada and Pakistan in providing patronage, Khalistanis have the potential to cause trouble in India in 2024.  

India’s internal security apparatus is poised to be tested during January when the nation celebrates the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya from January 16 till the consecration on January 22. It will be followed by the Republic Day parade in Delhi on January 26. These events attract huge crowds and provide attractive targets to terrorists.

For many Hindus, the construction of the Ram Mandir symbolises the re­assertion of their faith. It is believed that Mughal rulers demolished the original Ram temple that existed on the hillock of Ramkot and built the Babri Masjid on the site. On the other hand, for sections of Muslims, the Ram Mandir is a painful reminder of the demolition of Babri Masjid carried out by Hindu mobs on December 6, 1992. 

Asaduddin Owaisi of the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen reflected their anguish: “Young people, I am telling you, we have lost our masjid and you are seeing what is being done there. Don’t you have pain in your hearts?” He told them that the place where they had sat and recited the Quran for 500 years was not in their hands today. “Young people, don’t you see that a conspiracy is taking place regarding three, four more mosques, in which the Sunheri Masjid (Golden Mosque) of Delhi is also included?” Owaisi appealed to them to pay attention to these things.

When Babri Masjid was demolished, it produced a tectonic effect on the social milieu of the country. Infuriated by the demolition, Mumbai’s crime czar and boss of the D Company, Dawood Ibrahim, masterminded the 1993 Bombay bombings on March 12, 1993. In a series of 12 bombings that day, 257 people were killed and 1,400 injured. In the six weeks of riots thereafter, 900 people are estimated to have lost their lives.   

The demolition was universally condemned by the Islamic world. It triggered anti-Hindu riots in Bangladesh and Pakistan. The demolition provided the justification for jihadi outfits, including the Indian Mujahideen and the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, to attack India. This continues to this day and affects India-Pakistan relations.

Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are facing the uncertainties of elections in January and February, respectively. Elections in both countries generate their own turbulence. The Ram Mandir inauguration can become a political ploy to provoke anti-India sentiments in the run up to the elections. This is more so in Pakistan which is reeling under terrorist attacks. 

The annual security report for 2023 of the Center for Research and Security Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, said: “Pakistan witnessed 1524 violence-related fatalities and 1463 injuries from as many as 789 terror attacks and counter-terror operations.” Security forces suffered one third of the fatalities. For Pakistan’s deep state, triggering jihadi terrorist activity using LeT proxies in J&K and Punjab is an attractive proposition to divert the attention of the people from chaotic happenings in its own backyard.

Lastly, in Myanmar territory bordering India, the junta government is on the backfoot after pro-democracy forces scored huge victories. According to reports, 23 towns and more than 400 junta military bases and outposts have been captured by the Brotherhood Alliance and allied resistance forces across Myanmar in Chin, Rakhine, Karenni (Kayah) and Shan states and Sagaing Region till December 27. The towns captured include those bordering Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland. According to media reports from Mizoram, 150 Tatmadaw soldiers entered Mizoram on December 29. Reports said 83 soldiers crossed over on December 29 and another group of 68 soldiers entered on December 30.The uncertainties in Myanmar can add to the already tense insurgency situation in Manipur.

Overall, we can see a lot of action in India in 2024. Modi or whosoever comes to power after the general elections should be prepared to face increased internal turbulence generated by hate mongers, aided by inimical forces across the borders. The government in place will have to constantly reinvent its approach to fighting militancy.  

As management pundit Peter Drucker said: “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” 

The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

Sri Lanka 2023: Bouquets and Brickbats

 Col R Hariharan

 

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2023 | South Asia Security Trends January 2024 | www.security-risks.com  

 

 

The centrepiece of the events during the year 2023 is undoubtedly President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who agreed to become President and accepted the challenge to resuscitate the economy of the bankrupt nation. The partial success of President Wickremesinghe’s “rescue act” during the year recalls what Hollywood actor Denzil Washington said about good and bad parts of our life: “Black or white, good parts are hard to come by. A good actor with a good opportunity has a shot, without the opportunity it does not matter how good you are.”

 

But political theatre is not a Hollywood stage; mere acting is not enough to survive. During the year, President Wickremesinghe has proved he is a great survivor in the fractious politics of the island. He came to power with neither a popular mandate nor political backing from his own party, which drew a blank in parliament elections. He is hobbled because he is in power at the pleasure of the Rajapaksas and their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).

 

Last month, the Supreme Court had held the two former Rajapaksa presidents and their younger brother and ex-finance minister Basil Rajapaksa, two former central bank governors and other top treasury officials guilty of triggering the island’s worst financial crisis. Despite this, the Rajapaksas continue to call the shots from behind the scenes. This is the standard of political morality in the country. President Wickremesinghe is confident enough to say that he will contest the presidential poll to be held early 2024. It will be a shame if President Wickremesinghe’s success in the presidential election 2024 depends upon the support of the tainted Rajapaksa clan and the SLPP.

 

As a hands-on President, Wickremesinghe had a hand in every pie in what happened in Sri Lanka during the year. So, most of the bouquets and brickbats of Sri Lanka’s performance in 2023 owe it to their president. Many may dispute the bouquet the President deserves for negotiating the IMF package and managing the creditors to pave way for partial economic recovery. This is evident from the disappearance of long queues for fuel and food grains that greeted his ascent to presidency. He was fortunate that India under PM Modi’s leadership is on an outreach to join the Wickremesinghe’s rescue act as part of India’s Neighbourhood First policy. The President also deserves a bouquet for managing to do some tight rope walking to brave the headwinds of India-China relations creating turbulence in the Indian Ocean.

 

But the biggest bouquet is for the ordinary people, the faceless milieu, who have given time and space to President Wickremesinghe to carry on his rescue act. They have grudgingly borne not only the burden of shortages and high cost of living, but also put up with continuing misuse of power, corruption and cronyism in high places. Unless political conduct improves, their patience may wear out with Aragalaya-2 in 2024.

 

But brickbats are plenty for the authorities for misuse of Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), stonewalling systemic changes, sustaining hate politics by saffron clad monks, humongous corruption and lack of accountability whether it is in procurement of medicines or playing cricket. Of course, President Wickremesinghe and Sri Lankan polity deserve brickbats for ignoring the mothers’ cries for their “disappeared” kin and keeping alive political polemics over Aragalaya with an eye on the elections.

 

Endless quest for ethnic reconciliation

 

King-sized brickbats are in order not only to the President, but to past incumbents and political leaders of all hues – Sinhala, Tamil, Muslims - for their signal failure to progress ethnic reconciliation. The first cracks in the relations between Sinhala majority and Tamil minority appeared way back in 1956 when the Sinhala Only Act, making it the sole official language. Since then, the political struggle for equity of the early years was overtaken by armed separatist struggle, bloodying the waters of Kelaniya river. Now politics of hate has made ethnic identity more important than national identity (as the national identity cards denote) in the pursuit of politics. It is entangled in the discourse of not only history, religion, culture and demographics but politics as well.

 

The 1987 India-Sri Lanka Accord gave international credence to ethnic reconciliation by recognising Tamil language and traditional areas of habitation. It also paved the way for amending Sri Lanka constitution to give a level of autonomy to the Tamil minority. The 13th Amendment led to the creation of provincial councils. However, it is yet to be fully implemented for fear of offending majority Sinhala voters. Even minority grievances aired in parliament on related issues are not attended to with the seriousness they deserve. India, regardless of the leadership, has always been asking Sri Lanka to fully implement the 13th Amendment. But the Sri Lanka ruling class have always used redrafting the constitution as the best option to resolve the national question.

 

President Prema Dasa constituted the Managala Moonasinghe Select Committee in 1991. President Chandrika Kumaratunga tabled new constitutional proposals in 2000. President Mahinda Rajapaksa set up Prof Tissa Vitharana-led All Party Representative Committee (APRC) in 2006. He talked of 13A plus, going beyond what was offered by the 13th amendment.  But all this was forgotten when triumphalism overtook common cause after the defeat of Tamil Tigers (LTTE) in May 2009. After the Maithripala Sirisena-Wickremesinghe coalition came to power, they talked of drafting a new constitution. Nothing came out of all these exercises. They only reinforced the Tamil suspicion that no one in authority is serious about problems of the Tamil minority. This has been validated periodically when Sinhala fringe elements are given a free hand to spread hate politics with the blessing of wayward Buddhist monks. 

 

President Wickremesinghe, no doubt egged on by India and with an eye on minority Tamil votes, initiated an all-party meeting on December 13, 2022 “to resolve the longstanding ethnic issue.” He made an ambitious promise to “achieve meaningful reconciliation by February 4, 2023. The all-party conference partly succeeded in everyone agreeing that a power sharing solution is necessary. It paved the way for an informal meeting between Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the main votary for devolution of power. The two sides announced that they have reached a political agreement by the February deadline. But as the President did not agree to granting police powers to the provincial council as envisaged in 13A, the talks ended without results. It is a pity that Tamil leaders could not accept land powers for PC, while persuading the President to post only Tamil knowing policemen in Tamil areas. That could have resulted in some progress.

 

The President had his hands full in pushing for economic recovery, while TNA dissipated its energy in internal leadership struggle. And the full implementation of 13A, which would have been the first step in ethnic reconciliation, is back to square one in political debates. In this context, the Himalaya Declaration drafted on April 27, 2023, by the Global Tamil Forum (GTF) and Senior Nikhayas of Buddhist Sangha and presented to President Wickremesinghe is of interest. The Declaration affirms six statements: preserving pluralistic character of the country, selecting appropriate development model, arriving at a new constitution to promote equality for all and implementing it, devolving power in a united country, learn from the past to ensure measures are created to avoid past mistakes and complying with international treaties and obligations. 

 

At the aspirational level, the declaration is to be welcomed because it aims to promote ethnic amity in a united Sri Lanka. Tamil Diaspora had been one of the key sources bankrolling Tamil politics and the GTF is one of the prominent established diaspora organisations. The Declaration would have carried more punch if it had the concurrence and support of at least some of the Tamil and Sinhala political leaders. The timing of the Declaration a few months before the presidential election runs the risk of being dubbed as yet another attempt by President Wickremesinghe to win minority votes.

 

Ethnic reconciliation is the key for a prosperous Sri Lanka. The bottom line is to have faith in the people and implement 13A in full. Sri Lanka cannot wish away accountability concerns on human rights; so the LLRC report must be implemented in full. It will reassure not only the people, but also the international community that Sri Lanka is serious about ethnic reconciliation. Can the new president elected in 2024 deliver these essentials for development and prosperity of Sri Lanka?  That is a $64 question!

 

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]