This year will
see a lot of action due to inimical forces across India’s borders. The
government will have to be on guard and reinvent its approach to fighting
militancy and not act with yesterday’s logic
Col R Hariharan | Magazine |Special | India Legal |January
5, 2024
https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/terrorists-jammu-and-kashmir-khalistan/
This year will
be a crucial one in India’s fight against terrorism considering the patronage
given by Pakistan and Canada to such elements. The new government that will be
formed in India after the general elections will have its task cut out in
tackling this menace.
In keeping with
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s zero-tolerance against terrorism, in 2023, New
Delhi made holistic progress in the fight against this menace. Concerted action
was taken on financial, legal, intelligence and operational systems to seal
existing loopholes which were exploited by extremist elements as well as their
front organisations. Security forces are being provided upgraded systems and
equipment, including drones for their operations along the border. The National
Investigation Agency had been active in tracing and prosecuting jihadi
terrorists and sympathizers, as well as dismantling their support ecosystem.
Pictures of a milling crowd celebrating the New Year at the grandly lit-up Lal
Chowk in Srinagar despite the minus 3.5 degree Celsius were a hit on social
media. It showed that the troubled Union Territory (UT) was at last picking up
the pieces of normal life. The South Asia Terrorism Portal’s comparative
statistics on J&K for 2023 as against 2022 are also encouraging. The number
of incidents involving killings has come down to 72 from 151. Only 12 civilians
lost their lives as against 39. On the other hand, the losses of security
forces marginally increased to 33 from 30, whereas the body count of terrorists
fell to 87 from 193 in 2022.
But numbers alone do not tell the whole story. In mid-December, Army and BSF
troops were put on alert after intelligence reports indicated that 250-300
militants were waiting at launch pads along the border. So far, they do not
seem to have succeeded in infiltrating in strength. In 2023, for the first
time, 50 out of the 72 terrorists killed, were foreigners, confirming reports
of Pakistan facing a shortage of local recruits for induction in J&K.
Assessments
carried out by central agencies indicate that 91 militants, including 61
foreigners, are active in J&K, including the Rajouri-Poonch belt which has
been the scene of insurgent activity since last October. Action has also been
taken to dismantle the terrorists’ support system within J&K. The police
there apprehended 291 terrorist associates, and 201 overground workers were
charged under the Public Safety Act. The police claimed the UT had only 31
local terrorists, an all-time low, and the recruitment of locals into militancy
has dropped by 80% in 2023 with only 21 new recruits.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah reviewed the security situation in J&K at a
meeting on January 2 in Delhi. Lt Governor of J&K Manoj Sinha, National
Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Army chief General Manoj Pande and intelligence
officials were present. According to agency reports, Shah emphasised the need
for the complete elimination of the terror ecosystem in accordance with the
zero-tolerance approach against this menace.
But India’s
fight against terrorism and insurgency does not end with J&K only. It
extends to the sensitive border areas of Punjab, where Khalistan fringe
elements supported by the deep state in Pakistan have been trafficking arms,
narcotics and fake currency, often using drones. The Punjab BSF has claimed to
have shot down over 100 drones during 2023. Unfortunately, Canada has become
the hotbed of the Khalistani anti-India ecosystem. As External Affairs Minister
S Jaishankar said, the issue at heart is the fact that Canadian politics have
given space to Khalistani forces and allowed them to indulge in activities that
are damaging relations with India. It is clearly not in India’s interest or
Canada’s.
The issue is no longer a bilateral one between India and Canada after the
former came to know of the involvement of Five Fingers, an intelligence
alliance of the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. So far,
Khalistani elements in Canada and the US have only been giving threatening
statements against India and its diplomats, apart from desecrating some Hindu
temples. But given the free run by Canada and Pakistan in providing patronage,
Khalistanis have the potential to cause trouble in India in 2024.
India’s internal
security apparatus is poised to be tested during January when the nation
celebrates the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya from January 16 till
the consecration on January 22. It will be followed by the Republic Day parade
in Delhi on January 26. These events attract huge crowds and provide attractive
targets to terrorists.
For many Hindus, the construction of the Ram Mandir symbolises the reassertion
of their faith. It is believed that Mughal rulers demolished the original Ram
temple that existed on the hillock of Ramkot and built the Babri Masjid on the
site. On the other hand, for sections of Muslims, the Ram Mandir is a painful
reminder of the demolition of Babri Masjid carried out by Hindu mobs on
December 6, 1992.
Asaduddin Owaisi
of the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen reflected their anguish: “Young
people, I am telling you, we have lost our masjid and you are seeing what is
being done there. Don’t you have pain in your hearts?” He told them that the
place where they had sat and recited the Quran for 500 years was not in their
hands today. “Young people, don’t you see that a conspiracy is taking place
regarding three, four more mosques, in which the Sunheri Masjid (Golden Mosque)
of Delhi is also included?” Owaisi appealed to them to pay attention to these
things.
When Babri
Masjid was demolished, it produced a tectonic effect on the social milieu of
the country. Infuriated by the demolition, Mumbai’s crime czar and boss of the
D Company, Dawood Ibrahim, masterminded the 1993 Bombay bombings on March 12,
1993. In a series of 12 bombings that day, 257 people were killed and 1,400
injured. In the six weeks of riots thereafter, 900 people are estimated to have
lost their lives.
The demolition
was universally condemned by the Islamic world. It triggered anti-Hindu riots
in Bangladesh and Pakistan. The demolition provided the justification for
jihadi outfits, including the Indian Mujahideen and the Pakistan-based
Lashkar-e-Taiba, to attack India. This continues to this day and affects
India-Pakistan relations.
Both Bangladesh
and Pakistan are facing the uncertainties of elections in January and February,
respectively. Elections in both countries generate their own turbulence. The
Ram Mandir inauguration can become a political ploy to provoke anti-India
sentiments in the run up to the elections. This is more so in Pakistan which is
reeling under terrorist attacks.
The annual
security report for 2023 of the Center for Research and Security Studies, an
Islamabad-based think tank, said: “Pakistan witnessed 1524 violence-related
fatalities and 1463 injuries from as many as 789 terror attacks and
counter-terror operations.” Security forces suffered one third of the
fatalities. For Pakistan’s deep state, triggering jihadi terrorist activity
using LeT proxies in J&K and Punjab is an attractive proposition to divert
the attention of the people from chaotic happenings in its own backyard.
Lastly, in
Myanmar territory bordering India, the junta government is on the backfoot
after pro-democracy forces scored huge victories. According to reports, 23
towns and more than 400 junta military bases and outposts have been captured by
the Brotherhood Alliance and allied resistance forces across Myanmar in Chin,
Rakhine, Karenni (Kayah) and Shan states and Sagaing Region till December 27.
The towns captured include those bordering Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland.
According to media reports from Mizoram, 150 Tatmadaw soldiers entered Mizoram
on December 29. Reports said 83 soldiers crossed over on December 29 and
another group of 68 soldiers entered on December 30.The uncertainties in
Myanmar can add to the already tense insurgency situation in Manipur.
Overall, we can
see a lot of action in India in 2024. Modi or whosoever comes to power after
the general elections should be prepared to face increased internal turbulence
generated by hate mongers, aided by inimical forces across the borders. The
government in place will have to constantly reinvent its approach to fighting
militancy.
As management
pundit Peter Drucker said: “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not
the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”
The writer
is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies
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