Col
R Hariharan
Sri Lanka Perspectives April
2024 | South Asia Security Trends May 2024 | https://www.security-risks.com
Presidential election
Sri Lanka celebrated Sinhala and Tamil
new year on April 13. Astrologers wield considerable influence over the people
and political leaders in Sri Lanka. However, many believers may not want to
remember that the elder Rajapaksa, despite favourable astrological predictions,
failed to win a third presidential term. The Times of India reported that this
year there was a squabble among 42 astrologers employed by the Ministry of
Culture to decide upon the auspicious date and time for new year rituals to
start. The majority decided on night of April 13. The report further quoted the
dissenting astrologer Roshan Chanaka was vocal about the decision and predicted
it would lead to disaster and the country “will go up in flames.” One hopes
Roshan’s prediction is limited to the heatwave in the coming weeks predicted by
meteorologists and not another Aragalaya public protests ending up in
flames.
The US astrological website astrostyle.com
predicting the US presidential election in 2024 sees “a lot of curveballs this
year including some meddling from AI and third-party candidates becoming part
of the ballot potentially.” It also forecast “And for the first time, we may
see those third-party candidates get way farther than they ever have in
elections.”
The US astrological forecasts may well
apply to Sri Lanka presidential election to be held sometime between end
September and early October. While ‘curveballs’ by last minute defectors and
unnatural electoral affiliations had always been part of the elections in Sri
Lanka, meddling from external forces has been limited to few big powers. Chins
can be credited with the use of Chinese companies to fund political parties. Of
course, Diaspora funding of political also plays a role in “meddling” with
elections.
The general elections going on India is
also seeing lot of ‘curveballs’ and meddling in the form of foreign civil
society and social media podcasts “modi-fied” to mislead the voters. Karnataka
state chief minister is being probed for introducing a doctored video, possibly
using AI tools. Sri Lanka can expect similar external meddling not only during
the run up to the elections, but also during their conduct. Hopefully, Sri
Lanka Election Commission is factoring this aspect when it gets ready hold the
elections.
Forecast
For the first time since 2022, Sajith
Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) overtook Anura Kumara
Dissanayake, leader of the National Peoples Power (NPP) in the two voting
intent poll surveys carried out in March 2024 by the Institute for Health
Policy (IHP). The SJB on 38 percent (+4) took the lead ahead of NPP/JVP on 35
percent (-2) while the Sri Lanka Podjujana Peramuna (SLPP) at 8 percent and
President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) at 5 percent remain
unchanged.
However, the political scene is still confused.
The SLPP leader Basil Rajapaksa is wary of the party contesting the
presidential election, while Namal Rajapaksa, the ‘heir apparent’ likes the
party to be in the fray. The Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) is in disarray, after court order prevented party leader
Maithripala Sirisena from holding office. Pro-Sirisena faction has appointed
Justice Minister Dr Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe as Acting leader of the SLFP, though
he is a member of the SLPP. Anti-Sirisena faction led Politburo appointed Minister
Nimal Siripala as Acting leader of the party. Former
President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga has refused to take up the
chairmanship of the SLFP. On SLFP fielding a candidate, she said, “it is too
late. The SLFP is completely destroyed. It will take several years to rebuild
the party.”
NPP leader AK Dissanayake speaking in Stockholm, expected the
various political leaders including Chandrika, Mahinda and Ranil coming
together on one platform to ensure the NPP does not come to power in the
upcoming election. However, formation
of such a common platform to oppose NPP candidate is probably far from the
minds of ambitious political leaders with their own agenda.
The prevailing political confusion
probably helps President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s hope of contesting the
presidential election as an independent candidate. His party the UNP is weak
after it got a severe drubbing in the
parliamentary poll. Sajith Premadasa, who broke away from the UNP, to become
the leader of the SJB will be the main challenger. Premadasa has probably
better record in dealing at the grass root level. How he will deal with the
economic issues bugging the nation remains a question mark?
Wickremesinghe’s leadership during the
interim presidency to resurrect the bankrupt economy and save the nation gives
him a unique advantage. He is politically savvy than his rivals and has a good
equation with India, China and the US. This helped him negotiate with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bale out economic package. Though both
Premadasa and AK Dissanayake have criticised him for the burden imposed on the
common man due to IMF restructuring of the economy, they know there was no
alternative to it.
This unique achievement of Wickremesinghe
probably gives him confidence to contest the election as an independent
candidate. However, that may not impress the voter as much as his support base
is formed with assorted groups culled from the UNP and SLPP and possibly even
SLFP. As of now the presidential poll is wide open, increasing the demand for
astrologers to predict the future.
Foreign relations
Official delegations from at least six countries
and international bodies visiting Sri Lanka during April are an indication of
international interest in Sri Lanka. Among them, visits by a delegation of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and by the Iranian President Dr Ebrahim Raisi are
noteworthy. The CCP delegation headed by Sun Haiyan, vice minister of the
International Department of the CCP made a two-day visit. Apart from meeting
President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Prime Minister and high officials to discuss
issues of common interest, the delegation also met with leaders of various
political parties. According to Sri Lankan media they had talks with the
National Peoples Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who will be
contesting the presidential election. Apparently, it was to understand NPP’s
popularity in the coming elections. The CCP delegation also met with Basil
Rajapaksa and representatives of the SLPP, Sajith Premadasa, leader of the SJB
and Mano Ganesan, leader of the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA). Evidently,
the CCP delegation was interested in renewing its contacts with Sri Lanka
political parties. It will also enable them to assess the political situation before
presidential election is held.
However, President Dr Ebrahim Raisi’s one
day visit to Colombo was economically, strategically and politically more
significant for Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka considers Iran as the gateway for export to
Central Asia. Iran-Sri Lanka relations got a boost in 2007 after President
Mahinda Rajapaksa visited Iran and signed MoUs on development projects to the
tune of $1.9 billion. President Ahmadinejad visited Sri Lanka the following
year and inaugurated the project to upgrade Sapugaskanda petroleum refinery at
a cost of $ 750 million. Since then, the relations between the two countries
have grown further as Iran sees Sri Lanka importance in the context of Indian
Ocean security. During the war against the LTTE, Iran supplied arms to Sri
Lanka. Iranian navy flotillas have been visiting Sri Lanka presumably to
familiarise with the waters. Iran and Sri Lanka have signed a Tea for Oil
barter agreement that has helped Sri Lanka to import Iranian oil in cash
strapped times.
However, Sri Lanka navy’s involvement in
Red Sea convoy protection against Houthis (supported by Iran) and the ongoing
Israel-Iran missile confrontation have added interest to Iranian President’s
visit.
During the visit, Sri Lanka and Iran
signed five memorandums of cooperation in the presence of the two presidents.
They cover cooperation between the
National Library of Sri Lanka and the National Library and Archives of Iran,
cooperation in the film industry between the National Film Corporation of Sri
Lanka and Iran’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, cooperation in the field of Media and Tourism, program
for cultural, scientific and technical cooperation in mass media, youth and
sports between the two countries and lastly cooperation between the National
Cooperative Council of Sri Lanka and the Iran Chamber of Cooperatives.
Dr Raisi inaugurated the Iranian aided Uma Oya
Multipurpose Development Project (UOMDP), one of the largest irrigation projects
in Sri Lanka. The project was delayed by the sanction’s regime against Iran. The UOMDP is designed to redirect annually 145
million cubic metres (MCM) of excess water from Uma Oya basin to benefit a
total of 600 hectares of agricultural land in Monaragala district. It will also
provide 39 MCM of water for drinking and industrial purposes in parts of three
districts, while generating 290 GWh of electricity to be added to the national
grid. Iran has provided 85 percent of the total project cost of approximately
$520 million. The visiting Iranian President endeared himself to local Muslims
by going off the schedule to pray at the local Kollupitya mosque.
Tailpiece: Sri Lanka government has
decided to hand over the management of the $209 million loss making Mattala
Rajapaksa International Airport to Indian and Russian companies. Shaurya
Aeronautics Pvt Ltd of India and Airports of Regions Management Co of Russia,
which manages 10 airports in Russia will oversee management of the airport for
a period of 30 years. In this period, they hope to turn around the airport
operation to make it profitable.
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and
terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force
in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China
Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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