Modi 3.0: Q & A on India-China relations relating to Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA-N) hospital ship “Peace Ark” set sail on Mission Harmony 2024 to visit three countries including Sri Lanka. The Peace Ark will provide free diagnosis and treatment to local residents, people serving in Chinese institutions and overseas Chinese through onboard clinics and medical teams. Sri Lanka had imposed a ban on foreign research ships visit to Sri Lanka for one year after India objected to the visit of Chinese research ships to Sri Lanka for security reasons. In this context, my answers to questions raised by a Sri Lankan scribe on the subject are given below.

Q1: India had strongly protested on security grounds against Chinese research ships coming to Sri Lanka, even making port of calls. [Perhaps in deference to India’s sensitivity on the issue,] Sri Lanka has banned the entry of foreign vessels in Sri Lankan waters for research purposes for one year. [In this context] How do you see the Indian security concerns? Do you see them as real threats to India’s national security?

We need to find answers to your questions on India’s security concerns on increasing visit of China’s “research” vessels in the strategic dynamics of Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It also has a context in the larger confrontation in the Indo-Pacific.

We should also remember the Indo-Sri Lanka relations becoming closer than ever before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s SAGAR initiative. During Modi 3.0, we can expect India’s desire to play a pivotal role in the IOR to be increasingly challenged by China. Maldives under Muizzu is a case in point.

In this backdrop, we shall answer the question. China under Xi Jinping is trying to create a New World Order (NWO) where China, rather than the West, will call the shots. India also seeks a NWO – not a China centric one – but equitable to global south. So there is some convergence between India and China in their world view.

However, China’s reluctance to resolve the border dispute with India is likely to continue. This will impede the natural growth of friendly relations between the giant neighbours. India cannot wish away China’s increasing presence under the Belt and Road Initiative among all its South Asian neighbours. So, India will factor China strengthening its presence on its periphery in its security mapping. In the coming months, we can expect Sri Lanka by virtue of its geostrategic location as a vanguard of India’s ocean security, to come under the special attention of both India and China.

Q2: Though Sri Lanka has banned Chinese research ships, Maldives has agreed to entertain them. This means Chinese research ships are going to continue to remain in Indian Ocean. How does it lessen the threat for India?  

India’s foreign policy dynamics, like Sri Lanka’s, are region and country specific. There is no point in comparing how India handles Chinese intrusions in its vicinity in Maldives and Sri Lanka. For example, Sri Lanka handles 70 percent of India’s container traffic, while Maldives does not. India-Sri Lanka trade relations are growing very fast. We can expect Maldives’ pro-China posture also to swing in favour of India.

Q3: Political leaders in Sri Lanka say China just wants to irritate India by sending the research ships for port calls in Sri Lanka. To what extent does this claim make sense? 

China has the largest number of research ships. They survey the behaviour of sea and seabed as well as under water currents, which help both surface and submarine operations. The research ship’s radars keep track of India’s missile tests and presumably collect data useful for electronic warfare. They can collect data on fisheries and under water mineral resources in EEZ of other countries including Sri Lanka. India cannot simply ignore their presence in India’s vicinity. Though their visits are likely to continue to be an irritant in Indian Ocean waters, their potential to compromise national security of others cannot be underestimated.

Q4: What is the long-term solution of this issue, in your view?

India and its neighbours, particularly Sri Lanka, are likely to face more and more intrusive operations by Chinese ships. Best way to handle them is to keep track of their operations in IOR. Indian Navy and Coast Guard are doing it 24x7 and I am sure the data is available to Sri Lanka Navy on a real time basis. That is how illegal trafficking of arms/drugs/humans is monitored and detected by both countries.

However, political handling of such intrusions is little more tricky. I am sure Indian political leadership understands the limitations of Sri Lanka’s leadership in handling China, its biggest money lender. Of course, this is subject to prevailing strategic situations because no two situations are the same.

Q5: Any other comments on the issue?

I see no great improvement in India-China relations in the near term. It will continue to be subject to Xi’s overawing desire to create a Sino-centric NWO and the West’s resistance to it. India will continue to take positions (on issues) suited to its national interest.