Manipur insurgency: Questions & Answers

Col R Hariharan

[Here are my answers to a few questions raised by scribes on the Manipur situation.]

Are there chances of Christian tribal outfits operating in Myanmar being involved in the Manipur (insurgent activity)? If so, what would they gain?

According to the American Baptist church website https://baptistworld.org , American Baptist churches “has had a deep and abiding relationship with Myanmar/Burma for over 200 years. It adds to say “Baptists from Myanmar came to the attention of D.C. Baptists in 1995. That year the Calvary Baptist Church began a congregation made up of varied ethnic families from Myanmar who had moved to the USA capital area from Myanmar. They established numerous congregations reflecting at least three ethnicities: Chin, Kachin, and Karen. Most of these churches became a part of the District of Colombia Baptist Church.

Today, seven percent of these churches are made up of these ethnic communities from Myanmar. They formed a multi ethnic “Burma Work Group” in 2016 to meet the spiritual and physical needs of the Baptist ministry in Myanmar. This provides an open conduit through which help in cash and kind from the US reaches the ethnic kin living in this region.

According to a note issued by DIPR, Mizoram government on February 14, 2024, a delegation of the Burma Advocacy Group, headed by Rev. Dr. Roy Medley, General Secretary Emeritus of the American Baptist Churches of the USA, convened with Chief Minister Pu Lalduhoma at his office today. They conveyed their appreciation for the warm reception and support extended to Burma refugees in Mizoram.

In the meeting, the Chief Minister discussed his recent meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi. He conveyed that the central government has shown positive response for improving the conditions of Burma refugees and expressed readiness to assist the Mizoram government when necessary.

The Burma Advocacy Group, consisting of the American Baptist Churches, Chin Baptist Church, Karen Baptist Church, Baptist Union of Norway, and their partner churches globally, is being hosted in Mizoram by the Baptist Church of Mizoram and Lairam Jesus Christ Baptist Church. Joseph Lalhimpuia, an ordained Baptist Elder and former Member of the Mizoram Legislative Assembly, has been tasked with guiding them during their trip in Mizoram.

During the Cold War days, CIA has been providing arms to insurgent groups ostensibly to prevent Communist takeover. At the time China was providing sanctuaries and arms to Burma’s Communist insurgents who threatened to bring down the military regime in Burma. After China took a policy decision not to arm Communist insurgencies in Myanmar, the Communists were crushed. But armed ethnic groups were well established along the border areas and Myanmar military officers found it lucrative to cohabit with insurgencies involved in drug trade by cultivating marijuana and producing of methamphetamine. This encouraged a thriving market for traffic in drugs, arms, humans and timber to India and SE Asia. This has been sustaining some of the so-called separatist insurgencies like the SSA (Shan State Army).

The Chins and Kachins live in areas bordering Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Mizoram. Chins have close kinship relations with Mizos. Karens live in areas bordering Thailand. These areas [in Myanmar] have been facing insurgency for the last four decades. At one stage, Mrs Bush Jr, the wife of President of the US George W Bush Jr, was the chairman of the Baptist helpline to Karens in Myanmar. The Biden Administration’s recently passed Burma Act formalises US supplies of ‘nonlethal’ aid to the insurgent groups fighting the military junta which is ruling Myanmar for the last three years. 

After the military take over of Myanmar three years ago, the ruling junta is locked in civil war with at least a dozen insurgency groups including National League for Democracy-led Peoples Democratic Force. The military had been steadily losing ground in areas bordering India, Bangladesh, China and Thailand. In Kachin, Chin and Rakhine states bordering Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram, a few thousand families of Myanmar militant groups have sought refuge with their kins on the Indian side. So Baptist Church in these states is sympathetic to their kin. The border trade facility providing movement across the border to 20 km on either side helps the situation.

The American Baptist missionaries are believed to be active in northern Myanmar for years now. Last year, the Biden administration also cleared the BURMA Act sanctioning non-lethal military aid to ethnic armed organizations (EAO) in Myanmar fighting the junta. Before her ouster, Prime Minister Hasina also claimed that a plan to create a Christian enclave was afoot in the region. So, are there fears about American involvement in the Manipur situation? 

I have already answered the part played by the US Baptist Church in Myanmar is earlier question. Of course, there is American involvement in support of insurgents fighting in Myanmar to bring down the ruling Junta. As regards former PM Sheikh Hasina’s allegations of creating a Christian enclave in areas bordering Bangladesh and Indian states of Manipur and Mizoram, needs to substantiated. To my knowledge it is still in the realm of speculation. She has also alleged that the Americans wanted to establish an air base in St Martin’s Island off the coast of Cox’s Bazar in Southeastern most tip of Bangladesh. I have stayed a few weeks in the area. In my view, the sandy island is too small in size for an airbase. The strong tidal variation in the cyclone prone area does not lend itself to the construction of any military base. 

How do you view China’s role here? 

China had been the fountainhead of arms supply and training to insurgent groups operating in India’s Northeast and Myanmar. In Cold War days, it was officially provided to Burmese Communist insurgent groups and later it was sold apparently illegally to insurgent groups which find their way to India.

China had provided arms and training to the cadres of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) to wage their separatist war for a long time. It is well documented both in India and Myanmar.

The Kanglaipak Communist Party (KCP) in Manipur, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) have also been provided arms by China. A confession by the People's Liberation Army of Manipur (PLAM) member in 2019 suggested that PLAM was in touch with China's People's Liberation Army. Sixteen platoons of PLAM returned to Manipur after receiving training in China. The sophisticated rocket weapons, drones and other modern weapons used by Kuki insurgents in Manipur indicate they were probably sourced from China either directly or through illegal means.

 Lastly, India has been building a fence along the India-Myanmar border. We have also been cooperating with Burmese forces to maintain stability along the border region. What can be done to stabilise the situation?

Building a border fence will have limited value due to the rugged nature of terrain along the border. To maintain it requires patrolling by troops which is a humongous task. However, it has some political value.

Manipur is known for its ethnic and cultural diversity. It has been plagued by internecine conflicts among different ethnic groups and tribes. The State is home to the Meiteis -- the major ethnic group in the State -- who embraced Hinduism in 17th century. There are about 30 different tribes including  Nagas, Kukis, Paites, Thadous,  Simtes, Vaipheis, Raltes, Gangtes and Hmars. Unlike the Meiteis, who occupy the Imphal Valley, the other tribes inhabit the surrounding hill districts. The Meiteis constitute more than 50 per cent of the population but occupy only one-tenths of the State's area.

The Meiteis do not belong to the Scheduled Tribe (ST)-catergory while the hill tribes enjoy certain privileges like job reservation, protection of their lands from settlement and ownership by non-STs even if they are Manipuris. This has been strongly resented by the Meiteis who perceive that the hill tribes are garnering benefits disproportionate to their population. So, the problem can only be resolved only politically. However, the civil war in Myanmar has triggered the current situation and probably some security measures to cull out bad hats among refugee groups can bring back some level of normalcy. 

A Limited Mandate

 The interim government has many tasks before it, but it will not be easy to deal with them as the constitution has no provision for such a government. These are best left to an elected government

By Col R Hariharan | Magazine |Column | India Legal |September 2024

https://indialegallive.com/magazine/bangladesh-student-protests-interim-government-yunus-sheikh-hasina-mujibur-rahman/

The swearing-in of an interim government in Bangladesh on August 9, 2024, after the student-led protests snowballed into a mass movement forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee, has raised many questions about the future of the country.

After spending the better part of my life as an intelligencer, happenings in Bangladesh from June to August have proved to me that intelligence is a 24×7 business. It also showed that even the best of intelligence forecasts can fail Alpha rulers like Hasina. It also failed her father Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh, when he turned into an Alpha ruler after coming to power with overwhelming support. 

Once in power, both father and daughter freely used the iron fist to suppress protests and opposition. That probably made them deaf to cautions of growing distrust among the people from intelligence sleuths. Mujib ignored India’s friendly intelligence warnings of an impending plot against him. He paid the ultimate price when he was slaughtered in 1975 with his wife and three sons in his home by a group of army officers on his birthday on August 15.

Ironically, the same house—32 Dhanmondi, Dhaka—preserved as a Bangabandhu Memorial Museum, was set on fire on August 5 this year by miscreants during the Non-Cooperation Protest Movement (NCPM). When some people gathered at the ruined residence to pay their respects on Mujib’s birthday, “miscreants” opened fire killing one person.

The swearing-in of an interim government in Bangladesh on August 9, 2024, after the student-led protests snowballed into a mass movement forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee, has raised many questions about the future of the country. Even as the Museum was set on fire, continuous telecasts showed jubilant mobs vandalising the statue of Bangabandhu to bring it down. The scene was reminiscent of the destruction of Saddam Hussain’s statue in Iraq when he was out of power. On that day, local media estimated the crowds on the streets at four lakhs. The day before, as many as 98 people, including 14 police officers, were killed. It took the tally of those killed since the protests began in July to at least 300.

Hasina is a great survivor, having escaped 19 assassination attempts in her four-decade-long political career. She was able to flee the country to safety in New Delhi on August 5, after Bangladesh army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman withdrew support to her. She resigned a day later after the army chief announced that the armed forces would install an interim administration to run the government.

Army’s Choice 

The day after Hasina fled, the president dissolved the parliament. With that, the army chief probably succeeded in carrying out a soft coup with the installation of an interim government with Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus as chief adviser. The 84-year-old Yunus is a member of the Nobel laureates club. He is well networked with the US government. He is linked to the Clinton Foundation. He is also a recipient of POTUS’ 2009 Presidential Medal of Freedom.

More than all that, Yunus has no love lost for Hasina. In 2007, Yunus came up with the idea of forming a political party, Citizen’s Power, to combat corruption and polarisation of power among a few leaders. Hasina saw him as a challenger to her quest for political power. After coming to power in 2008, her government began a series of investigations into Yunus’ activities. She criticised Grameen’s microlending practices, accusing Yunus of taking credit for poverty reduction efforts of her government that reduced poverty significantly over the last 15 years. Her government’s prosecution of Yunus and 13 others on June 14 on charges of embezzlement of Taka 252.2 million ($2 million) from the workers welfare fund of Grameen Telecom drew adverse international attention.

One hundred Nobel Laureates, including former POTUS Barack Obama, wrote an open letter to Hasina, urging an end to what they described as “continuous judicial harassment”. The UN human rights body raised concerns about the ongoing harassment and smear campaigns from the “highest levels of government” which could jeopardise a fair trial. It also probably influenced the World Bank’s decision to withdraw funding from the Padma Bridge project, a major infrastructure project.

In this context, the US State Department’s interest in the whole Yunus affair is interesting. On July 9, spokesperson Mathew Miller said: “We continue to monitor closely developments in the case against him. We have expressed for some time our concern that these cases may represent a misuse of Bangladesh’s labour laws to harass and intimidate Dr Yunus.” He cautioned that such “perceived misuse of labour and anti-corruption laws could raise questions about rule of law and dissuade future foreign direct investment”. In any case, since then, the Dhaka tribunal has dismissed the case against Yunus and 13 others after the Anti-Corruption Commission withdrew the charges in August.

Interim Government

The Bangladesh president’s decision to install an interim government was taken after obtaining a legal advisory from the Supreme Court of Bangladesh. This is because the Bangladesh constitution does not have a provision for an interim government. 

Tariq Ahmed, a foreign law specialist in the Global Law Research Directorate writing on the subject in the “Library of Congress” blog, says Article 123(3)(b) of the Constitution “stipulates that if parliament is dissolved for any other reason before the end of its term, general elections must be held within ninety days after such dissolution”. Moreover, Articles 58(4) & 57(3) provide that the prime minister [and existing ministers] continue to “hold office until his [or her] successor has entered upon office” if he or she resigns or ceases to hold office.

However, the president was faced with a legal conundrum, as neither the Hasina government nor the parliament existed. The president, through the Ministry of Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs, sought a legal advisory from the Supreme Court whether an interim government could be formed under the unusual circumstances. A full bench of the Appellate Division on the same day issued a ruling “in favour of the formation of the interim government”, stating that “an interim government can be formed with a chief adviser and a few other advisers in the absence of parliament”. After receiving the advice, only then was the interim government sworn in.

The interim government, grappling with problems of restoring administration and law and order, may not be able to conduct a general election within 90 days (i.e. first week of November) of the dissolution of parliament as stipulated in the Constitution. In such a case, the interim government may have to take recourse to the “Doctrine of Necessity”. 

The Doctrine is a legal principle that permits administrative authorities to take extraordinary actions in emergencies or when upholding constitutional principles. These actions are considered lawful even if they violate established laws, norms or conventions. 

Yunus’ Mission

Chief Adviser Yunus has been speaking of his broad vision to establish good governance, democracy and human rights in the country. Broadly, he wants to carry out institutional reforms by forming six commissions to carry out systemic changes required for conducting fair elections, tone up police administration, judiciary, eradicate corruption, improve public administration and identify changes required in the Constitution to implement them.

While Yunus’ national vision building is laudable, it is beyond the scope of the mandate of the interim government. Its mandate is limited to restoring public confidence in democratic governance to conduct free and fair parliamentary elections before the first week of November. An elected government will have both the legal mandate and machinery to realise Yunus’ national vision in the long term.

Yunus and his team must get into mission mode and evolve a plan to identify time-based goals and tasks to achieve them. The first task will be to restore law and order so that the administrative machinery can meet the needs of the people to resume their normal life. This process seems to have already started. However, sustaining it will require the creation of a safe environment for people to pursue their normal avocations. This does not exist now.

Prothom Alo, a pro-interim government newspaper, reported that 1,068 houses and businesses owned by Hindus were attacked between August 5 and 20. Some 22 temples were also destroyed. The government should not dismiss them as acts of miscreants, but take strict action to curb such lawless activity by fringe elements of Jamaat and Islamic parties. Yunus’ government needs to walk the talk on this aspect.

Safe Environment

The second task will be to create a safe environment. The police and administrative machinery are alleged to have been weakened by corruption and cronyism during the rule of the Hasina government. It will require identifying and weeding out corrupt elements in the government machinery. Several notable figures have been arrested mostly on charges of corruption, embezzling of public funds and unlawful conduct. These include former infrastructure minister Obaidul Quader, General Secretary of the Awami League; former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan; former IG of Police Shafiqul Islam and former Chief of Army Staff Lt General Aziz Ahmed. Several other people, including around 150 journalists, have been arrested. While these arrests are part of the crackdown on corruption, they should not end as a witch hunt. Otherwise, it will be making a mockery of the rule of law.

Lastly, Bangladesh’s financial crunch. As of July 2024, Bangladesh foreign exchange reserves stood at about $25.8 billion. This is a significant decrease from the peak of $48 billion plus in August 2021. In addition to the global economic downturn, deteriorating trade conditions since June have affected the manufacturing and export sector. In this environment, the government should not waste time in approaching the IMF for a loan as it is a time-consuming process. It is best to leave it to the elected government which will be the legitimate way of handling it.

Instead, the interim government should focus on retaining the existing win-win relationship with India, built during Hasina’s tenure. Both Sri Lanka and Maldives have veered round to the economic wisdom of retaining friendly relations with India.

Bangladesh’s debt, specifically owed to India, is approximately $3.5 billion. This debt is through various lines of credit extended by India for infrastructure development, energy projects and other bilateral cooperation initiatives. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are around $11 billion. This includes around $9 billion in the energy sector with regard to power generation and transmission, around $2 billion for infrastructure, some $500 million for the pharmaceutical sector, $300 million in automobile manufacturing and assembly plants, $200 million in the FMCG sector and some $150 million in the edible oil sector.

These projects provide livelihood for thousands of Bangladeshis. Leave it to the elected government to investigate these investment agreements for corruption. The interim government should not allow political posturing to satisfy wounded egos to take over foreign policy decision making. This is more so when the government is facing a financial crunch. 

As political analyst Fareed Zakaria said: “Foreign policy is a matter of costs and benefits, not theology.”

Yunus’ Cabinet

As chief adviser, Yunus has appointed advisers from a pool of experienced civil servants, retired army officers, academia, legal eagles and civil society activists, including three student activist leaders. Among the 19 advisers, two are women and two are from minority communities. Yunus is in-charge of the cabinet and the armed forces divisions. He is being assisted by three special assistants with hands on experience to manage the portfolios of the two divisions and also maintain liaison with the student bodies. 

• Former Cabinet Secretary Ali Imam Majumder (66) will probably take care of the departments of Food and Civil Administration. His experience as chairman of Bangla Biman, the national airline, should help him in dealing with the civil aviation and tourism departments. He is also a civil society activist, associated with Transparency International Bangladesh since 2016. He is also an executive member of Citizens for Good Governance. Majumder had been a vocal critic of the aberrations in the functioning of Hasina’s government.

• Retired Lt General Abdul Hafiz, former Chief of General Staff, is special assistant to Yunus on matters related to defence and national integrity. During his military career, he attended courses in China and the US. He is a graduate of the Defence Intelligence College of France. He has served as Force Commander of the UN Mission in Western Sahara and Ivory Coast.

• Special Assistant Mohammed Mahfuz Alam is a student activist and coordinator of the Anti-discrimination Students Movement (ADSM) and Non-Cooperation Movement–2024. He will be providing Yunus direct link to the student bodies spearheading the agitation.

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies 

Beatles, Bangladesh and a sitar maestro

[Bangladesh is once again in the news for all the wrong reasons, after a student protest snowballed into protest against the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's one and a half decade long overbearing rule and forced her to flee. On this occasion the plight of Bangladesh reminds me of the article I wrote in Asian Age when we mourned the passing of Pandit Ravi Shankar in 2012 as it is relevant now.]

R Hariharan  

Courtesy: Asian Age, December 26, 2012

http://www.webmail.asianage.com/columnists/beatles-bangla-desh-and-sitar-maestro-713

Even as the nation mourned Sitar maestro Pandit Ravi Shankar’s death, and the Indian army observed  ‘Vijay Divas’ on December 16 – the day of victory in Bangladesh, many may not be aware of the maestro’s contribution the cause of Bangladesh freedom struggle in 1971.

Although the Awami League led by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman won 167-seat majority in the 313-member house in 1970 Pakistan elections, President General Yahya Khan was reluctant to allow him to become the Prime Minister for his views on autonomy for the eastern wing. When the political deadlock continued, Mujib decided to take the issue to the people.

On March 7, 1971 Mujib at a public meeting in Dacca called for an independence struggle. His memorable words "The struggle now is the struggle for our emancipation; the struggle now is the struggle for our independence. Joy Bangla!..” triggered a massive disobedience movement in the East.

Yahya Khan declared Martial Law, banned the Awami League and arrested hundreds of protest. On the night of March 25, 1971 Mujib was arrested and air lifted to West Pakistan. Awami League’s key leaders fled to exile in India. The army started disarming Bengali troops and paramilitary forces stationed. However, Major Ziaur Rahman belonging to East Bengal Regiment in Chittagong took over the battalion and declared independence of Bangladesh on behalf of Mujib. Other East Bengal regiments and paramilitary forces also rebelled and the troops fled to India to swell the ranks of the Mukti Bahini (Liberation Force) being formed by the Awami League leaders in exile.

I remember, on a pleasant March morning debriefing Zia’s Punjabi commanding officer who had crossed the border at Agartala to seek our protection! Even under such adverse circumstances, he had only contempt for ‘low grade’ Bengali troops. This reflected the superior attitude of the Punjabi-dominated army elite generally had towards Bengali which failed to gauge the real power of Bengali nationalism that led to the creation of Bangladesh. 

It was the darkest chapter in Pakistan army’s history when under General Tikka Khan’s leadership army committed terrible atrocities. Hussain Haqqani in his book ‘Pakistan between the mosque and the army’ has described the scene in the words of General Niazi (who succeeded Tikka Khan):  “On the night between 25/26 March 1971 General Tikka struck. Peaceful night was turned into a time of wailing, crying and burning. General Tikka let loose everything at his disposal as if raiding an enemy, not dealing with his own misguided and misled people. The military action was a display of stark cruelty more merciless than the massacres at Bukhara and Baghdad by Chengiz Khan and Halaku Khan... His orders to his troops were: ‘I want the land and not the people…” 

The army was assisted by Razakars, a right wing Islamist militia formed targeting Bengali professionals and Hindus in particular. Millions of people mostly Hindus and the Awami League followers fled the country to seek refuge in Indian border states. When their number swelled to ten million it became a huge burden on India.  However, the U.S. conditioned by Cold War perceptions supported the Pak military crackdown. Western powers and media also took little notice of refugees’ plight. Indian Prime Minister Mrs Indira Gandhi’s plea for help was in vain.

Pandit Ravi Shankar, a friend of George Harrison of Beatles fame since 1966, was moved by the suffering of millions of refugees. At his request George Harrison organised a charity Concert for Bangladesh in August 1971 in which Ravi Shankar also participated. The concert album became one of the best sellers, and figured in the top-10 in the U.K and three other European countries.  And it won Ravi Shankar his second Grammy Award.

George Harrison’s lyric opens with a reference to Ravi Shankar’s request to him for support:

 My friend came to me with sadness in his eyes
Told me that he wanted help before his country dies
Although I couldn't feel the pain, I knew I had to try
Now I'm asking all of you to help us save some lives.

The lyrics further made ‘Bangla Desh’ a household one in the West. It went like this:

Bangla Desh, Bangla Desh
Where so many people are dying fast
And it sure looks like a mess
I've never seen such distress
Now won't you lend your had, try to understand
Relieve the people of Bangla Desh

Its closing part brought the humanitarian plight nearer home to the Western audience:

Bangla Desh, Bangla Desh
Now, it may seem so far from where we all are
It's something we can't reject
That suffering, I can't neglect
Now won't you give some bread to get the starving fed
We've got to relieve Bangla Desh
Relieve the people of Bangla Desh.

To many of us who fought in Bangladesh appalled by the Western indifference, George Harrison’s Bangladesh was refreshing.  Did the song have any political impact? I got my answer on the Christmas night in 1971 when I shared eggnog with the U.S. consul who lived next door in Dhanmondi in Dacca. He spoke how he was personally moved by George Harrison’s lyrics. He also added  the U.S embassy in Dacca had repeatedly requested for U.S. action against the genocide.  

Strategic Dynamics of India-Sri Lanka relations

 

Col R Hariharan (Retd)

World Focus, September 2024 issue | https://www.worldfocus.in/current_issue?key=492&val=India-and-Neighbourhood

Changes in strategic backdrop

There is a seamless link between trade and war. In the words of American scholar of international economy Robert Gilpin, “trade is the oldest and most important economic nexus among nations. Indeed, trade along with war has been central to the evolution of international relations.”

Peninsular India is separated from Sri Lanka by 40 km of Palk Strait. Sri Lanka’s location astride the international sea lanes of the Indian Ocean gives it a pivotal role of strategic importanceu not only for India, but for global security and trade as well.

Indian Navy’s domination of the IOR is being challenged by the increasing presence of PLA Navy’s warships. China has also increased its strategic reach in IOR by creating maritime assets and facilities in Indian Ocean rim countries. In the East, Kyakpyu port in Myanmar and Chittagong port developed by China in Bangladesh provide direct access from the mainland to the Bay of Bengal. China has a 99-year lease on Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port that dominates the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean. A Chinese company controls two carrier terminals in Colombo port. China also exercises control over the reclaimed land in Colombo port economic zone. In the West, China has shown interest in developing infrastructure in Ilhavanddhippolhu atoll in Maldives, strategically located on the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean. China has gained a foothold near the Strait of Hormuz after developing a deep sea port in Gwadar in Pakistan as a part of the CPEC. Since 2017, China has established its first overseas military base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.  

Alarmed at the increasing threat posed by China to international maritime traffic in the Indo-Pacific, four nations – India, the US, Japan and Australia - have formed the ‘Quad’, a quadrilateral non-military framework. It is ushering in close cooperation between the members in manufacturing, logistics and political issues. The AUKUS – Australia-US – military alliance is poised to introduce the nuclear triad in the Indo-Pacific theatre. A trilateral alliance of the US-Japan-South Korea has been formed to tackle any threat from China and its protégé North Korea, flaunting their military strength in their vicinity.

China’s visible presence has made India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy more relevant not only to India’s national security, but also its trade and commerce. Conscious of this, PM Modi revamped maritime cooperation doctrine with the launch of the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative March 12, 2015, to build better relations with island nations of IOR - Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles.  

Impact of Covid 19 pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic between 2020 to 2022 caused a huge set back to the economies of South Asian countries. Sri Lanka was one of the most affected by the Covid pandemic. The economy, largely dependent upon remittances from the Diaspora and tourism industry, suffered heavily. The Ukraine war and the slapping of stringent sanctions against Russia affected it further as tourists from the two countries formed around 15 percent of international tourist travellers. By March 2022, the country saw 10-hour power shutdowns almost every day, endless ques waited for hours for petrol at pumps. Surgical operations were halted due to lack of medical supplies. Newsprint shortage forced daily newspapers to go online mode; public exams in schools were cancelled for want of paper. Adding to the woes, hydropower generation dipped as water sources dried up and annual agriculture production fell by 40 percent due to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ill-timed ban on import of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

The country went bankrupt in April 2022. Sri Lankan rupee was devalued by 36 percent, pushing up the prices of daily necessities. In a bid to save foreign exchange, authorities banned imports including fruits, vegetables and milk powder.  The essential items ran out of stock in stores adding to the agony of the public.  The public suffering from prolonged shortages and high prices gathered in mass protests demanding the resignation of Rajapaksas in power as president and prime minister. By July 9, 2022 it snowballed into Aragalaya, a national movement spearheaded by university students. When ruling party goons and troops tried to suppress the protests, irate mobs ransacked the houses of President Gotabaya and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The Aragalaya protests forced President Gotabaya to flee the country. Some semblance of order was restored when the parliament installed Ranil Wickremesinghe as interim president.

India-Sri Lanka vision document

India played a crucial role in supporting Sri Lanka during the economic crisis and recovery thereafter. India provided over $4 billion in financial aid during its financial crisis. The aid included credit lines for essential imports of food, medicines and fuel. India was the first bilateral creditor to offer financing assurances to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which paved the way for other creditors to follow suit. This enabled Sri Lanka to meet the conditions for formalising the IMF programme for financial assistance. India also participated in debt restructuring agreements along with other countries i.e., China, France and Japan. These agreements allowed Sri Lanka to restructure its debt on more favourable terms.

India and Sri Lanka formalised their economic partnership after detailed discussion during President Wickremesinghe’s visit to New Delhi on July 21, 2023. President Wickremesinghe specially appreciated India’s timely, unprecedented, and crucial support to Sri Lanka and its people. India and Sri Lanka agreed upon an economic partnership vision to speed up Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The vision document’s title “Promoting Connectivity, Catalysing Prosperity: India-Sri Lanka Economic Partnership Vision” contains the key elements of the partnership. The plan is to strengthen the maritime, air, energy and people-to-people connectivity between the two countries. They have signed six energy agreements, including an oil pipeline from India to Sri Lanka, electricity grid connectivity and cooperation on renewable energy.

India’s decision to allow the use of Indian rupee for trade settlement between the two countries and allowing the use of UPI based digital payment system is likely to boost trade and tourism. Already there are signs of improvement in Indian tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka and we can expect it to grow exponentially when ferry services and air connectivity are beefed up.

With South India becoming an industrial and IT hub, a multipurpose infrastructure link with Sri Lanka would bring a sea change in economic growth of the island nation. With Tamil Nadu becoming the heartland of automobile industry and IT manufacture, such a link would particularly benefit the Northern and Eastern provinces.

Contentious issues

A land bridge connecting India and Sri Lanka across the Palk Strait is one of the ideas mooted in the  joint vision statement. It is not a new idea; the then PM Ranil Wickremesinghe had proposed it in 2004. The proposal for a 23 km long Palk Strait Bridge met with intense opposition in Sri Lanka. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Ms Jayalalithaa was also opposed to the idea on security considerations. In 2015, India’s transport minister Nitin Gadkari proposed to build the ‘Hanuman bridge’ with the aid of the Asian Development Bank as a part of the Trans Asian road network. However, it was shot down by Sri Lanka Minister for highways Lakshman Kiriella. He said “We are against it because people of Sri Lanka are opposed to it. We cannot let India build a bridge.” As Sri Lanka had joined the BRI just then; apparently Sri Lanka did not want to upset China. Moreover, India’s domination of Sri Lankan life is resented by sections of people in all political parties.

It will not be easy for President Wickremesinghe to politically sell the idea of a land bridge with India, particularly when he is contesting the presidential election in September 2024. The attitude of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) with its strong Sinhala nationalist moorings and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and its cohorts is no better. The land bridge proposal can be used by them to whip up anti-India rhetoric. Even a non- political personality like Colombo Archbishop Malcom Cardinal Ranjith had opposed the land bridge proposal from the pulpit. 

The India-Sri Lanka vision document also speaks of two other issues that are contentious. The first is on encouraging Indian investments in the divestment of Sri Lankan State-owned Enterprises (SOE). This sale of SOE is already mired in political controversy. The Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) proposal to comprehensively enhance bilateral trade and investments has already become a politically sensitive issue. Some stakeholders like domestic businesses in Sri Lanka fear increased competition from India can put them out of business. There are differences in regulatory frameworks and standards between the two countries. Harmonizing them will require full cooperation and effort. There is public opposition from professional bodies and trade unions in Sri Lanka who worry about the influx of professionals from India reducing their opportunities for employment. Similarly, some fear the huge economic disparity between the “big brother” India and Sri Lanka could lead to Indian domination of certain sectors gaining unequal benefits.

Adequate infrastructure and connectivity are essential for smooth implementation of ETCA. Both countries need to invest to improve logistics, transportation, digital trade and services for people to see the advantages of economic technical connectivity. Similarly, the two countries should invest in building trust through people to people connectivity at various levels particularly through increased links with academic institutions, professional bodies and civil society organisations in both countries.

Despite these challenges, both India and Sri Lanka seem to recognize the potential benefits of ETCA and continue to work towards it. After all, the India-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has been quite successful in enhancing economic ties between the two countries.

Bilateral trade has grown from $658 million in 2000, when the FTA was signed, to $5.45 billion in 2021 before Covid-19 pandemic queered the pitch of growth. Sri Lanka benefited considerably from the FTA with more than 60 percent of its exports to India utilizing the provisions of the agreement. This enabled Sri Lankan products to enter the Indian market with zero tariff. As against this, only 5 percent of India’s exports to Sri Lanka used FTA provisions. India is one of the largest investors, exceeding $2.2 billion in 2021. India has been the largest source of tourists to Sri Lanka further strengthening the island nation's economy. Overall, the ISFTA has played a crucial role in deepening the economic and commercial partnership between India and Sri Lanka, benefiting both nations in various sectors.

Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info

 

Sri Lanka: Options among three dozen plus presidential aspirants

 

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives August 2024 | South Asia Security Trends, September 2024 | https://www.security-risks.com

Thirty-nine candidates filed their nominations for the presidential elections to be held on September 21. However, the number of candidates stands reduced with the passing of one of the nominees Mohammed Ilyas, aged 78, on August 22 after brief illness. There is no woman candidate, though Sri Lanka boasts of electing Mrs Sirimavo Bandaranaike as the world’s first female prime minister as early as 1960.

Among the 38 aspirants, 22 are from recognized political parties, while 16 are contesting as independents. Some of the candidates are veterans of many presidential elections in the past. Apparently, they are in the fray perhaps to split local votes, while enjoying the perks and publicity of contesting the presidential poll. In any case, all major political parties – the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the United National Party (UNP) and its clone Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) - are split over supporting interim President Ranil Wickremesinghe, contesting as an independent. This is reflected in the support groups of the contestants.   

The real contest is between three men: Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, leader of the opposition SJB and Anura Kumara Dissanayake representing the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) led National Peoples Power (NPP) combine. Namal Rajapaksa, the scion of the Rajapaksas, is in as an afterthought when Dhammika Perera, billionaire businessman and former minister of investment promotion, declined to contest on SLPP ticket.

The other well-known names in the fray are Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka (independent) who led the Sri Lanka army to victory against the Tamil Tigers and Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, seasoned politician of SLPP, representing National Democratic Front, a combine of minor parties. Aragalaya activist Nuwan Bopage is endorsed by the Frontline Socialist Party, formed by dissidents of JVP.

Internal wranglings among Tamil parties have split their strength after the largest Tamil party - the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) - skewed its political narrative. Now, Ariyanethiran, former ITAK MP, has filed his nomination as an independent candidate, endorsed by the EPRLF, PLOTE, TELO and Tamil Peoples Alliance. ITAK MP Sumanthiran aptly summed up the impact of this mindless move in his X message: “If the Tamils vote in large numbers for Ariyanethiran, the course of Tamil politics will take a more extremist turn. If they do not vote so, the Tamil nationalist cause will be weakened. Whatever the result, the ultimate losers will be Tamils.”

Muslim politicians are on the backfoot, particularly after the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. Both Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and Bathiudeen-led All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) are supporting SJB. They had no other option, after the Rajapaksas patronised anti-Muslim fringe elements of Buddhist clergy.

The Institute for Health Policy (IHP)’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) provisional estimates of presidential election voting intent for July 2024 showed that Dissanayake and Premadasa leading neck and neck (37 percent and 36 percent respectively each within the margin of error) but with both at less than 40 percent of all adults. IHP also said July saw a continuing surge for President Ranil Wickremesinghe, whose support grew to 23 percent. At the time of the survey, the SLPP had not declared Namal Rajapaksa as its candidate. However, support for a generic SLPP candidate remained unchanged at 4 percent.

Manifestos galore

Dissanayake: Opinion polls always do not translate into votes; we have seen it in India and in Sri Lanka. However, both Premadasa and Dissanayake are attracting huge crowds in election rallies. Dissanayake’s past record as a minister was not memorable; he had fared poorly in the last presidential election. So, his lead in the opinion poll is apparently driven by youth, who had rallied together during Aragalaya protests. However, Dissanayake has been bending over backwards to refurbish his image. His 233-page long election manifesto’s title “A Prosperous Nation, A Beautiful Life” is aspirational, trying to cash in the systemic collapse the country had faced. According to him, the manifesto was developed through extensive discussions and analysis with stakeholders across 39 sectors and industries over the past two years. It outlines a summary of its plans for the development of various sectors, including engineering, IT, the economy, social issues, education, and health.

Premadasa: Sajith Premadasa’s SJB manifesto focuses on the well-trodden path of refining existing systems. The manifesto titled ‘A win for all’ consists of 5 pillars, including, building a resilient economy, empowering every citizen, enhancing Government service, protecting quality of living and safeguarding the nation. Dr Harsha de Silva outlined the party’s 10-point comprehensive plan to steer Sri Lanka towards sustainable economic growth, centred on transparency, accountability and inclusive development. He asserted the party’s “model is a synthesis of economic freedom, the belief in markets and economic justice, the belief in equity and everybody gets a piece of the pie.” SJB promises to create an independent public prosecutor to eliminate conflicts of interest in corruption cases involving the Attorney General’s office. The Party’s plan also includes introducing public procurement laws, e-procurement platforms, asset recovery regulations and enhancing transparency in public financial management. On economic stabilisation it outlined measures to manage the debt crisis, continue negotiations and engage with the IMF to amend certain terms while maintaining debt sustainability.

Wickremesinghe: Despite low ratings, President Wickremesinghe is banking on his performance as Interim President. He has been listing his achievements in the economic turnaround after the country was declared bankrupt. In Phase I he focused on addressing the immediate foreign exchange crisis, which helped reduce fuel queues, improve the availability of essential items, shorten power cuts and resume food production. To prevent major food crises cash transfers were made to vulnerable communities. In Phase II, the root causes of macroeconomic vulnerabilities were addressed to stabilize the economy. Comprehensive reforms in fiscal and monetary policies, State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the financial sector. This enabled the country to move from a primary budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2021 to a surplus of 0.6% in 2023. Inflation has also dropped significantly and key economic indicators such as foreign reserves and the exchange rate have shown marked improvement. It came at the cost of severe  austerity measures and hike in taxation rates, increasing the burden on the common man. Conscious of this, Wickremesinghe is taking up with the IMF a proposal to raise the income tax band from Rs 500,000 to Rs 720,000. However, there were glaring aberrations of corruption and misgovernance under his watch. Despite this, as a suave dealmaker, Wickremesinghe has been able to attract support across all the national parties including and some of the minor parties.

Namal: SLPP candidate Namal Rajapaksa is banking on an economic vision aimed at doubling the economy from $ 90 billion to $ 180 billion within a decade. He has emphasised a two-part strategy focusing on immediate relief package and a sustainable integrated growth plan built on the foundational principles of “Mahinda Chinthanaya”. How he proposes to do it in a decade when his family has ruined the economy is a matter of fantasy!

India watch

NSA’s visit: Ajith Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, visited Colombo to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with member states of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) and the Charter for the Establishment of the CSC Secretariat in Colombo on August 30. Apart from India, Mauritius, Maldives and Sri Lanka are members of CSC. He had official talks with President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena. He also met with leading presidential candidates including Sajith Premadasa of SJB and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of NPP. The NSA also met representatives of various political parties, including Tamil leaders from the North, East, and Upcountry. He is reported to have told them not to “waste the votes of the Tamil people” [by voting to common Tamil candidate] and try to negotiate with a candidate who could win and secure the aspirations of the Tamil people through talks. The NSA’s visit showed India’s keen interest in the presidential poll in Sri Lanka.

Indian and Chinese naval ships in Colombo: The Colombo Port saw warships of India and China making a port call on the same day – August 26. India’s guided missile destroyer INS Mumbai made the first port call. The Indian warship was bringing spares for the Dornier maritime patrol aircraft used by the Sri Lanka Navy. It was the eighth Indian warship to visit Sri Lanka this year. Hours later, three PLA-N warships— guided missile destroyer Hefei and amphibious dock landing ships Wuzhishan and Qilianshan — also reached the port. The Chinese warships were visiting Colombo for three-day resupply after completing Peace-Unity 2024 joint exercises with Tanzania and Mozambique, according to Chinese media. The warships of the two nations successfully conducted a Passage Exercise (PASSEX) with SLNS Vijayabahu separately on August 29.

End note

It should not be forgotten that the presidential elections are held in the backdrop of IMF-proposed austerity measures which has imposed subsidy cuts and heavy taxation. Steep increase in prices have reduced the disposable income of most of the people. Jean Jacque Rousseau said “Those that are slow in making a promise are the most faithful in performance of it.” This applies to current situation when Premadasa and Dissanayake are making promises to remove systemic aberrations. While Wickremesinghe is riding his success in triggering the economic recovery, Premadasa is harping on his father Ranasinghe Premadasa’s performance as a President to improve the system. On the other hand, Dissanayake wants a radical systemic change. So ultimately the voter has two alternatives to choose: Between Wickremesinghe, the Deal maker, and Premadasa, the Lotos eater, who can improve the existing system for complete economic recovery? Or, trust Dissanayake to introduce a new socialist system to take the country to complete economic recovery.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]