Col R Hariharan
Sri Lanka Perspectives August
2024 | South Asia Security Trends, September 2024 | https://www.security-risks.com
Thirty-nine candidates filed
their nominations for the presidential elections to be held on September 21.
However, the number of candidates stands reduced with the passing of one of the
nominees Mohammed Ilyas, aged 78, on August 22 after brief illness. There is no
woman candidate, though Sri Lanka boasts of electing Mrs Sirimavo Bandaranaike
as the world’s first female prime minister as early as 1960.
Among the 38 aspirants, 22 are
from recognized political parties, while 16 are contesting as independents.
Some of the candidates are veterans of many presidential elections in the past.
Apparently, they are in the fray perhaps to split local votes, while enjoying
the perks and publicity of contesting the presidential poll. In any case, all
major political parties – the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), the United National Party (UNP) and its clone
Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) - are split over supporting interim President
Ranil Wickremesinghe, contesting as an independent. This is reflected in the
support groups of the contestants.
The real contest is between
three men: Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, leader of the opposition SJB
and Anura Kumara Dissanayake representing the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)
led National Peoples Power (NPP) combine. Namal Rajapaksa, the scion of the
Rajapaksas, is in as an afterthought when Dhammika Perera, billionaire
businessman and former minister of investment promotion, declined to contest on
SLPP ticket.
The other well-known names in
the fray are Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka (independent) who led the Sri Lanka
army to victory against the Tamil Tigers and Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, seasoned
politician of SLPP, representing National Democratic Front, a combine of minor
parties. Aragalaya activist Nuwan Bopage is endorsed by the Frontline
Socialist Party, formed by dissidents of JVP.
Internal wranglings among
Tamil parties have split their strength after the largest Tamil party - the
Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) - skewed its political narrative. Now,
Ariyanethiran, former ITAK MP, has filed his nomination as an independent candidate,
endorsed by the EPRLF, PLOTE, TELO and Tamil Peoples Alliance. ITAK MP
Sumanthiran aptly summed up the impact of this mindless move in his X message:
“If the Tamils vote in large numbers for Ariyanethiran, the course of Tamil
politics will take a more extremist turn. If they do not vote so, the Tamil
nationalist cause will be weakened. Whatever the result, the ultimate losers
will be Tamils.”
Muslim politicians are on the
backfoot, particularly after the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. Both Sri
Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and Bathiudeen-led All Ceylon Makkal Congress
(ACMC) are supporting SJB. They had no other option, after the Rajapaksas patronised
anti-Muslim fringe elements of Buddhist clergy.
The Institute for Health
Policy (IHP)’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) provisional estimates
of presidential election voting intent for July 2024 showed that Dissanayake
and Premadasa leading neck and neck (37 percent and 36 percent respectively
each within the margin of error) but with both at less than 40 percent of all
adults. IHP also said July saw a continuing surge for President Ranil
Wickremesinghe, whose support grew to 23 percent. At the time of the survey,
the SLPP had not declared Namal Rajapaksa as its candidate. However, support
for a generic SLPP candidate remained unchanged at 4 percent.
Manifestos galore
Dissanayake: Opinion
polls always do not translate into votes; we have seen it in India and in Sri
Lanka. However, both Premadasa and Dissanayake are attracting huge crowds in
election rallies. Dissanayake’s past record as a minister was not memorable; he
had fared poorly in the last presidential election. So, his lead in the opinion
poll is apparently driven by youth, who had rallied together during Aragalaya
protests. However, Dissanayake has been bending over backwards to refurbish his
image. His 233-page long election manifesto’s title “A Prosperous Nation, A
Beautiful Life” is aspirational, trying to cash in the systemic collapse the
country had faced. According to him, the manifesto was developed through
extensive discussions and analysis with stakeholders across 39 sectors and
industries over the past two years. It outlines a summary of its plans for the
development of various sectors, including engineering, IT, the economy, social
issues, education, and health.
Premadasa: Sajith
Premadasa’s SJB manifesto focuses on the well-trodden path of refining existing
systems. The manifesto titled ‘A win for all’ consists of 5 pillars, including,
building a resilient economy, empowering every citizen, enhancing Government
service, protecting quality of living and safeguarding the nation. Dr Harsha de
Silva outlined the party’s 10-point comprehensive plan to steer Sri Lanka
towards sustainable economic growth, centred on transparency, accountability
and inclusive development. He asserted the party’s “model is a synthesis of
economic freedom, the belief in markets and economic justice, the belief in
equity and everybody gets a piece of the pie.” SJB promises to create an
independent public prosecutor to eliminate conflicts of interest in corruption
cases involving the Attorney General’s office. The Party’s plan also includes
introducing public procurement laws, e-procurement platforms, asset recovery
regulations and enhancing transparency in public financial management. On economic
stabilisation it outlined measures to manage the debt crisis, continue
negotiations and engage with the IMF to amend certain terms while maintaining
debt sustainability.
Wickremesinghe: Despite
low ratings, President Wickremesinghe is banking on his performance as Interim
President. He has been listing his achievements in the economic turnaround
after the country was declared bankrupt. In Phase I he focused on addressing
the immediate foreign exchange crisis, which helped reduce fuel queues, improve
the availability of essential items, shorten power cuts and resume food
production. To prevent major food crises cash transfers were made to vulnerable
communities. In Phase II, the root causes of macroeconomic vulnerabilities were
addressed to stabilize the economy. Comprehensive reforms in fiscal and
monetary policies, State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the financial sector.
This enabled the country to move from a primary budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP
in 2021 to a surplus of 0.6% in 2023. Inflation has also dropped significantly
and key economic indicators such as foreign reserves and the exchange rate have
shown marked improvement. It came at the cost of severe austerity
measures and hike in taxation rates, increasing the burden on the common man.
Conscious of this, Wickremesinghe is taking up with the IMF a proposal to raise
the income tax band from Rs 500,000 to Rs 720,000. However, there were glaring
aberrations of corruption and misgovernance under his watch. Despite this, as a
suave dealmaker, Wickremesinghe has been able to attract support across all the
national parties including and some of the minor parties.
Namal: SLPP
candidate Namal Rajapaksa is banking on an economic vision aimed at doubling
the economy from $ 90 billion to $ 180 billion within a decade. He has
emphasised a two-part strategy focusing on immediate relief package and a
sustainable integrated growth plan built on the foundational principles of
“Mahinda Chinthanaya”. How he proposes to do it in a decade when his family has
ruined the economy is a matter of fantasy!
India watch
NSA’s visit: Ajith
Doval, India’s National Security Advisor, visited Colombo to sign a Memorandum
of Understanding (MoU) with member states of the Colombo Security Conclave
(CSC) and the Charter for the Establishment of the CSC Secretariat in Colombo
on August 30. Apart from India, Mauritius, Maldives and Sri Lanka are members
of CSC. He had official talks with President Ranil Wickremesinghe and Prime
Minister Dinesh Gunawardena. He also met with leading presidential candidates
including Sajith Premadasa of SJB and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of NPP. The NSA
also met representatives of various political parties, including Tamil leaders
from the North, East, and Upcountry. He is reported to have told them not
to “waste the votes of the Tamil people” [by voting to common Tamil candidate]
and try to negotiate with a candidate who could win and secure the aspirations
of the Tamil people through talks. The NSA’s visit showed India’s keen interest
in the presidential poll in Sri Lanka.
Indian and Chinese naval ships
in Colombo: The Colombo Port saw warships of India
and China making a port call on the same day – August 26. India’s guided
missile destroyer INS Mumbai made the first port call. The Indian warship was
bringing spares for the Dornier maritime patrol aircraft used by the Sri Lanka
Navy. It was the eighth Indian warship to visit Sri Lanka this year. Hours
later, three PLA-N warships— guided missile destroyer Hefei and amphibious dock
landing ships Wuzhishan and Qilianshan — also reached the port. The Chinese
warships were visiting Colombo for three-day resupply after completing
Peace-Unity 2024 joint exercises with Tanzania and Mozambique, according to
Chinese media. The warships of the two nations successfully conducted a Passage
Exercise (PASSEX) with SLNS Vijayabahu separately on August 29.
End note
It should not be forgotten
that the presidential elections are held in the backdrop of IMF-proposed
austerity measures which has imposed subsidy cuts and heavy taxation. Steep
increase in prices have reduced the disposable income of most of the people. Jean
Jacque Rousseau said “Those that are slow in making a promise are the most
faithful in performance of it.” This applies to current situation when
Premadasa and Dissanayake are making promises to remove systemic aberrations.
While Wickremesinghe is riding his success in triggering the economic recovery,
Premadasa is harping on his father Ranasinghe Premadasa’s performance as a
President to improve the system. On the other hand, Dissanayake wants a radical
systemic change. So ultimately the voter has two alternatives to choose:
Between Wickremesinghe, the Deal maker, and Premadasa, the Lotos eater, who can
improve the existing system for complete economic recovery? Or, trust
Dissanayake to introduce a new socialist system to take the country to complete
economic recovery.
[Col R
Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as
the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka
1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies.
Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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