By Col R Hariharan
China’s Defence Minister
General Liang Guanglie’s visited Sri Lanka for five days from August 29, 2012.
The first-ever visit by a Chinese defence minister to Sri Lanka with an
entourage of 23 members indicates the ever increasing Chinese interest in the
island nation.
The defence minister called upon President Rajapaksa and met
with the Secretary of Defence Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He also visited the Defence
Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC) and and the Defence Service College
(DSC) – a national school established for children of defence services and
police personnel. Even there the defence minister’s visit was limited to
interaction with military personnel only. There was no press meet organised for
the visiting delegation. Evidently there was a conscious effort to keep the
visit at a low key. It would be charitable to think that this was done as both
sides were mindful of India’s sensitivities to Chinese overtures in Sri Lanka.
But it would probably accurate to say that the Chinese defence minister did not
want the Colombo visit to be overplayed as New Delhi was his next stop.
General Liang’s meeting with the President was only briefly
reported in official release with traditional averment to peace and friendship
between the two countries. On the Chinese visitor’s meeting with Defence Secretary Gotabaya
Rajapksa, Sri Lanka defence ministry said Sri Lanka
and China had sought to strengthen their military ties. The
Chinese press release was a little more detailed. It quoted General Liang as
saying that political trust
between the two countries had deepened with the rapid expansion of exchanges
and cooperation in various fields. He expressed the hope that the two sides
would continue to work hard to maintain the close and friendly relations and strengthen
exchanges and cooperation in the field of non- traditional security and improve
the ability to respond to crisis together, so as contribute to regional peace,
stability and development (emphasis added).
Presumably the
reference to non-traditional security and responding to crisis together was
related to international counter-terrorism cooperation that China had been
promoting for some time. This was mooted in the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation and joint exercises have been carried out. Probably China would
like to promote similar joint efforts with South Asian nations. This is
evidenced by the Chinese military participation in the Sri Lanka joint services
exercise “Cormorant III” from September 10 to 25 in Eastern Vakarai in Eastern
Province. In this exercise along with Sri Lanka troops, Chinese troops would be
participating side by side with military personnel from Bangladesh, Pakistan
and Maldives.
India is not
participating in the exercise. However, Indian observers will be attending the
exercise. It will be interesting to
watch how China progresses this nascent foray of “joint training” with South
Asian countries. India’s response to this initiative will be equally
interesting as during his Indian visit later, the Chinese defence minister had
spoken of resuming military cooperation and exercises with India which were
disrupted for a while.
According to Sri Lankan defence website about
2000 troops from the three services will be participating in the exercise. The
exercise will include carrying out raids on boat yards, amphibious landings, taking
of high value targets, reconnaissance and surveillance of targets, airborne and
seaborne operations, path-finding missions, ambushes, search operations,
counter terrorist actions and hostage rescue mission etc. Honing of Sri Lankan
army’s joint operational skills with the air force and navy in counter
terrorism operations appears to the main objective of the exercise.
Apparently, the Sri Lankan armed forces are getting ready to
face a potential threat of LTTE remnants overseas making a foray into Sri Lanka
at a future date. Though such a contingency might appear remote at present, Sri
Lankan armed forces are training themselves to be ready for such security
situations. This is in keeping with training practices of national armies
everywhere and drawing alarming conclusion of imminent extremist threat to Sri
Lanka would be incorrect.
However, more relevant from Indian point of view is, in
future Sri Lanka will have the option of seeking Chinese military assistance in
such an eventuality. This gives a totally different dimension to the growing military
cooperation between the two countries. Probably, Sri Lanka has a similar understanding
already with India. Despite such an understanding, China’s active military
cooperation if and when it comes through in Sri Lanka, literally in India’s
‘backyard’, would complicate India’s security calculus.
Any India-China military stand-off would be a testing time
for Sri Lanka as has excellent defence understanding and cooperation with India.
In this context, Sri Lanka Prime Minister DK Jayaratne remark when Chinese
Vice-Premier Zhang Dejiang visited Sri Lanka in June 2010 is interesting. He
said Sri Lanka would unswervingly support China on issues of core interest.
China went to war with India in 1962 as they consider security of national
borders as a core issue. Considering Sri Lanka’s past conduct in 1965 and 1971
Indo-Pak wars, and economic compulsions facing the country, in any future
India-China confrontation also Sri Lanka is likely to adopt a neutral stance.
At the macro level, Chinese desire for greater security tie
ups with Sri Lanka and other South Asian nations is presumably in response to
increasing American strategic security profile in Asia-Pacific. Indian security
planners would do well to contextualise these developments in the power play
between China and the U.S. Such tie ups would come in handy as and when PLA
Navy increases its muscle power in the next five years and enlarges its
presence in Indian Ocean region to safeguard China’s security interests which
are becoming global.
However, presumably to ally suspicion among South Asian
nations of China’s increasing interest in the region, General Liang emphasised
China’s peaceful intent in his speech at the DSCSC. He focused on peaceful
development as essential component of China’s defence policy presumably to
allay suspicion of China’s growing economic and military power. He said China
exercises a military strategy of active defence, with the basic principle of
adhering to a self-defence position that not to take the initiative to offend
others, stand for non- military means to solve disputes, take defensive posture
strategically, conduct self-defence and attack only after being attacked. He
cited the example of China’s recent stand-off with Philippines saying “Take the
recent Huangyan Island incident as an example, it is obvious that China's
military strength is stronger than that of the Philippines, but we didn't use
force or threat to use force, on the contrary, we have been committed to seeking
solution of the dispute through diplomatic means.”
He also explained that China's adherence to the path of
peaceful development is determined by its history, culture and traditions,
which centre on the idea of peace and harmony. In the Sri Lanka National Museum
stands a stone tablet carved in 1409, which was gifted by Zhenghe, the famous
navigator in ancient China to a local Buddhist temple during his stopover in
Sri Lanka. “The three languages carved on the stone tablet, namely, Chinese,
Persian and Tamil, expressed respect for Buddhism, Islam and Brahmanism. This
shows the inclusiveness of the Chinese people towards different religions, and
the respect for the harmonious co- existence of multiple cultures. Such historical
culture and tradition that values peace above all has exerted profound
influence on China's choice of a peaceful development path.”
General Liang said in the Chinese government whitepaper
China’s Peaceful Development in 2011, China had solemnly declared to the world
that “China will unswervingly follow the path of peaceful development. The core
idea of this path is that China will develop itself through upholding world
peace and contribute to world peace through its own development." China's
adherence to the path of peaceful development was also a choice necessitated by
its national conditions as China was plagued by invasions and wars brought by
foreign powers in history and the Chinese people know the value of peace and
the importance of accelerated development.
During his visit to the DSC, students welcomed and thanked
him in Chinese which was appreciated by the visiting dignitary. The General
announced a donation of $30 million to the DSC, the highest ever made to an
academic institution.
China appears to be attaching a great deal of importance to
Chinese defence minister’s visit. The visit was preceded
by a slew of announcements were made on Chinese financial assistance to various
projects:
- Assistance for construction of army camps: Largesse of $100 million for construction of accommodation of and infrastructure facilities in Sri Lanka army camps now being established in North and East. The Chinese aid comes in the face of international demand for reducing army presence in the Tamil predominant areas of Sri Lanka. And that is what makes China special for Sri Lanka; China had been liberal in extending assistance to Sri Lanka to strengthen its armed forces during and after the Eelam war and unlike India and the U.S. who were always wary of extending such assistance.
- Railway project: Finance of $ 278 million credit for the construction of a 26.75 Km railway track from Matara to Beliatta (part of Matara rail link with pilgrim centre of Kataragama);
- Hambantota port development Phase II: The much awaited development of Phase II of the port will be financed by the Exim Bank of China will provide a loan of $ 600 million with Chinese government giving a concessional loan of RMB one billion. The objective of the Phase II Development is to make Hambantota a strong supplementary port to Colombo port as an international hub to consolidate Sri Lanka’s status as a container trans-shipment hub in South Asian Region. At present India provides 70 percent of the container trans-shipment business at Colombo; there is a likelihood of Colombo losing a sizeable chunk of this business in the near future when India completes its container handling capability. Evidently Sri Lanka is getting ready to handle such a contingency by attracting other international traffic.
Sri Lanka government is reported to have signed an agreement
with China to buy six Xian MA-60 military transport aircraft at US$ 105.4
million (though no public announcement has been made). Sri Lanka air force has
already in service two Xian MA-60 aircraft. It is based on AN-24 platform and
capable of short landing and takeoff in rugged terrain.
Even
the increasing Chinese economic assistance to Sri Lanka has a strategic
content. China’s
economic outlay in Sri Lanka is around $ 6.5 billion; most of the 18 Chinese
funded projects are infrastructural projects with long gestation period and
repayment terms. According to Sunday Times, Colombo, China’s commitments for
the past five years other than infrastructural investments have been US$ 2.12
billion of which $ 2.1 billion was repayable loans with four to five years of
grace period. They have been given on commercial rates of interest unlike
Indian loans which are at preferential rates. Only US$ 24 million (Rs. 3
billion) has been outright aid given to Sri Lanka. Some mega projects like the
Hambantota port development project and Norocholai power plant may take a long
time to become profitable propositions. A downside of Chinese Eximbank’s
buyer’s credit to overseas construction projects is, it is mainly extended to
facilitate Chinese exports of equipment, construction machinery, materials,
technical and managerial expertise, and labour services. As a result they do
not generate employment opportunities for local population.
In spite of these limitations,
Sri Lanka has welcomed China’s economic assistance because it is available.
However it is likely to face serious problems in servicing the loans for a long
time to come. This makes Sri Lanka vulnerable to China’s strategic pressures.
Since the end of Eelam war in
2009 there had been a steady increase in exchanges at governmental, military,
and political levels between the two countries. During President Rajapaksa’s August
2011 visit to Beijing Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao expressed the country’s
readiness to help with Sri Lanka's economic development, promote communication
between the two countries with regard to infrastructure construction, enlarged
two-way trade and investment, and strengthening cultural and personnel
exchanges. So far, the Chinese assistance
had been in accordance with the areas of cooperation identified by Premier Wen.
Military linkages with Sri Lanka have been limited to sale of arms, exchange of visits of military officers and
training of military personnel. Strategic military linkages with Sri Lanka, if any, had
been kept under the wraps in both countries. Any such
strategic understanding would adversely alter the Indian security environment.
China’s soft power is
increasingly visible in all aspects of Sri Lanka society – diplomatic, economic
and military fronts, mega projects and infrastructure building, and trade and
commerce. Chinese entry into real estate and some manufacturing projects are
also coming through. And it will be only a matter of time before cheap Chinese
goods monopolise shop shelves. Chinese language teaching and cultural spread
are also on the cards as Confucius Centre is scheduled to open in Colombo.
Though Chinese soft power
expansion is also happening in India (except for Confucius Centre), as the
Chinese footprints expand in Sri Lanka they are eating into Indian space. And
the Chinese have probably added a strategic dimension to it now. Even as the
Chinese defence minister embarked upon his onward journey from Colombo to New
Delhi, hapless Sri Lankan visitors and pilgrims hounded out from Tamil Nadu
were disembarking from their aircraft at Katunayake. This would have given General
Liang a peep into the soft underbelly of Indo-Sri Lanka relations exposing its
weaknesses. There is no denial that India-Sri Lanka relations had been drifting
for sometime despite some major initiatives from the Ministry of Commerce. The
only option for India is evolve a holistic plan to upgrade its relationship
with Sri Lanka so that China gets a clear message.
Written on September 10, 2012
Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies, 11 September 2012
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