Col R
Hariharan
[This
is an updated summary of comments made by Col Hariharan on some of the
questions raised in a TV discussion on February 11, 2013.]
Question:
After the hanging of Afzal Guru, curfew has been imposed in Jammu and Kashmir
and the situation is volatile. Will there be retaliatory strikes from the
terrorist groups in J and K?
In J and
K, the main terrorist threat is from Lashkar e Taiba (LeT) and its clone Jamaat
ud Dawa (JuD) and the Jaish e Mohammed (JeM) who have camps on the Pakistani
side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). These two powerful non Kashmiri
terror groups had a hand in the parliamentary attack carried out on Indian
parliament in December 2001.
Afzal Guru
belonged to Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), a Kashmiri outfit that
was active in 1984. Guru was trained in Pak Occupied Kashmir by Pakistan army
during his JKLF days. However he surrendered to the police in 1993 and settled
in New Delhi after the JKLF split into Indian and POK factions. Ever since
Pakistan changed track to sponsor non Kashmiri organizations like the LeT and
the JeM, JKLF has been marginalized and at present its activity is mainly
political. Guru was found guilty of colluding with LeT and JeM terrorists in
carrying out their strikes on parliament.
When Guru
was hanged, Yasin Malik, leader of JKLF, was in Pakistan to visit his family.
He along with Amanullah Khan, leader of Pak JKLF observed a one-day fast in
Pakistan to express their sympathies for Guru’s death. JuD leader Hafeez
Muhammad Saeed, the godfather of LeT and archpriest of 26/11 attack, also
visited them to show his solidarity. Several Pak terror outfits including
LeT and JeM have vowed to step up jihadi attacks in J and K to avenge Guru’s
hanging.
So there
should be no doubt it would materialize sooner or later. They could use the
latent feeling of frustration and anger among the youth in conjunction with
popular sympathy evoked by the hanging of Guru to their advantage to carryout
retaliatory attacks. I am sure security forces would have factored this aspect
in their plans.
This could
increase the scale of terrorist violence which has been subsiding in J and K
since 2011. In 2012 a total of 117 people were killed (16 civilians, 17 troops
and 84 terrorists) were killed in terror related violence as against 183 deaths
in 2011 (including 34 civilians, 30 troops and 119 terrorists).
As troops
along the LAC have been put on high alert ever since the beheading two Indian
jawans by infiltrators last month and J and K government have better control of
the state than before, it will not be easy for terrorists infiltrate across the
border to mount attacks.
So
retaliatory terrorist strikes like the 26/11 LeT attacks in Mumbai could be
carried out elsewhere in India. Indigenous extremist outfits like Indian
Mujahideen and the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), which have links
with Pak terrorist groups, could help Pak terror groups in such tasks. So it is
essential our security forces continue to be vigilant not only in J and K but
also in other vulnerable areas in the country.
Considering
that India-Pakistan relations have suffered a setback ever since the beheading
incident, what would be the attitude of Pakistan government and the army to any
terrorist attacks on India planned or launched from Pakistan?
Pakistan
government is locked in a survival struggle ever since the ruling coalition ran
into a confrontation with the judiciary and the army has become increasingly
assertive. But the biggest threat to Pakistan continues to be Jihadi
terror attacks spearheaded by Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i- Taliban -TTP) and Al
Qaeda terrorists. They have targeted Pak army installations as well as Shia
population Pakistani; last year 325 Shias have been killed in such attacks.
Even today
(Febraury 14) media reports say in nine people were killed in twin explosions
in Northwestern tribal region of Orakzai. Pak air force strikes against
militants in this region have killed six militants. Police killed six TTP
militants when they attacked a police station in Frontier Region Bannu.
A meeting
of Corps Commanders of Pak army is going on now to discuss the internal
security situation. At the same time an all party conference of 27 Pak parties
is also taking place where an offer from Pakistani Taliban to hold talks is
being discussed. Earlier such an offer from TTP did not make headway as it did
not want to surrender its arms.
Pakistan
army’s main preoccupation at present appears to be to tackle terrorism in an
unstable internal political environment. Chief of Army Staff General Afshaq
Pervaiz Kayani in a speech has summed the situation saying “Today we are
pitched against an amorphous enemy when the conventional threat has grown
manifold….Increasingly complex external environment and our rather precarious
internal dynamics have created a myriad of security challenges.”
And there
are expectations of striking a better equation with the U.S. after John Kerry
assumed office as the U.S. Secretary of State. Pak military is expecting the
U.S to pay $688 million of Coalition Support Fund (CSF) for the period
June-November 2011 ($8.9 billion received so far from 2001 to May 2011).
This could be delayed if army gets tainted with any allegation of involvement
in cross border terrorist strikes.
Pakistan
is hopeful of playing a bigger role in Afghanistan as U.S. forces are eased
out. It had released 26 Taliban leaders to facilitate a rapproche- ment process
in Afghanistan. In the medium term, Pak army also would like to come to terms
with the Taliban to enhance its influence in Afghanistan. That would release
some of its soldiers now deployed in combating terrorists. Pak army is poised
to play a bigger role in Afghanistan after it signed an agreement with Afghan
defence minister to train Afghan soldiers.
Given
these considerations, sponsoring terror strikes in India does not sound
plausible. However, it should not be forgotten that Pakistan is yet to take
follow up action to arrest terrorists like Hafiz Saeed who were involved in
26/11 attacks. Though major trrorist outfits like LeT, JuD and JeM are
banned in Pakistan, they have been allowed to exist with impunity. It is
equally good to remember that even during a spell of bonhomie, Kargil war was
engineered. So from Indian point of view it is prudent to recognize such an
option exists and Pak army may not hesitate to use it, as logic is not its
strong suit.
(Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, is a strategic analyst associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com
Blogsite: www.colhariharan.org
)
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