Col R Hariharan
About 78.5 percent of 4.25
lakh people of Northern Province who voted in the Provincial Council elections
on September 21, 2013 have given the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) a thumping
victory. The TNA won 30 seats including 2 bonus seats in the 38-member council
while the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) secured 7 seats and the
Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) won 1 seat.
The results were not
unexpected; but the large voter turnout of 67.5 percent evidently boosted the
TNA figures. TNA’s performance point to the broad acceptance of its reading of
political aspirations reflected in its manifesto.
The TNA went into the
election after some introspection with its Diaspora patrons and Tamil
intellectuals.This
resulted in TNA naming
an apolitical personality - retired Sri Lanka Supreme Court judge CV
Wigneswaran - as its chief ministerial candidate. This prevented TNA from
dissipating its energies in a leadership struggle between the three major
parties that dominate the five-member conglomerate.
Justice Wigneswaran enjoyed
excellent national reputation as a jurist and did not belong to any party. Any
doubts about his belief in the Tamil Cause vanished after he delivered the Thanthai
Chelvanayagam Lecture “Whither Sri Lankan Tamils” at Colombo on April 25, 2013.
The rhetoric and the nuance of
speech appealed to most of the Tamils, despite some unorthodox views.
Undoubtedly, choice of Wigneswaran helped the TNA’s to broaden its support base
as he was apolitical and belonged to no special interest group. Probably this
persuaded large number of voters to support TNA after their energies have been
sapped by two and a half decades of war.
He also fitted in the TNA
bid to project a new image distancing itself from its tainted political
association with Prabhakaran while retaining the idiom of ‘Tamil Nation’ at its
core. This desire has made the manifesto more a vision statement than a mission
statement listing specific objectives of the Party.
For
instance, it reaffirmed the Tamils right of self determination and the desire
to find a solution to satisfy the Tamil aspirations within a federal structure
as stated in Oslo Communiqué. TNA failed to pursue this objective when it
meekly bowed down to Prabhakaran and allowed him to be the sole arbiter of
Tamils in the peace process with disastrous results. To resuscitate this
objective in the present context of Sri Lanka is going to be an uphill task
because much water has flown in Kelaniya River since then. The reality is the LTTE has been eliminated as
an extra constitutional rider on finding a solution to the Tamil issue. President Rajapaksa has been elected
twice after disowning the federal solution and wishing away the existence of
any ethnic problem in Sri Lanka. Tamils have been reduced to play their weakest political wicket now. And
last but not the least, there is a government “showing signs of heading in an increasingly
authoritarian direction,”(to quote UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Mrs
Naveneetham Pillay at the end of her recent visit to Sri Lanka).
Now TNA in office in NPC
has no choice but to build an equation with Colombo to fulfil the expectations
it has kindled among the people. This is going to be a trying task for
the TNA as a whole and the chief minister in particular. lf there is anyone who
can undertake the task of striking an equation with an intransigent government,
it is probably the chief minister designate Wigneswaran. As a Tamil judge at
the highest court of the nation he had walked the tight-rope through the trying
period of ethnic conflict. Though he is a non-political personality he has the
acumen and ability to take informed decisions while dealing with the
government.
Fortunately, he appears to
have more confidence in finding home grown solution (Rajapaksa’s much maligned
usage) without external intervention than other TNA leaders. Already he
has shown signs of keeping an open mind on issues like participation in the
CHOGM (Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting) being hosted by Sri Lanka. He
will also be facing a challenging task ahead as he has to carry the disparate
and divided TNA polity with their own agendas to tackle a scheming UPFA out to
pull the rug from under his feet at the first opportunity. if Wigneswaran
has to arrive at a working relationship with Colombo, it is essential for TNA
to shed the ghost of Prabhakaran driving from the backseat throwing broad hints
at separatism.
On the other hand, the
election results have also showed the total rejection of President Rajapaksa’s
strategy of using development needs as an alternative to fulfilling political
aspirations. He could have helped the UPFA put up a better show at the polls,
if only he had adopted in an inclusive approach in the development process to
involve the people in the traumatic years after the end of Eeelam War. But it
seems that is not his style not only in respect of Northern Province but also
other provinces. For others it may not matter; but the voting has shown
that UPFA has not endeared itself to the people of Northern Province.
After losing their kith and kin, livelihood and habitat in the
humanitarian warm they have to be satisfied with a retired General sitting as a
Governor and arbiter of their fate with a sizeable army breathing down their
neck in their daily life even four years after the war. This is no
advertisement for the UPFA.
President Rajapaksa’s post
war strategy had always been a mystery. As Dr Dayan Jayatilleka wrote if only
he had held the Provincial Council elections say immediately after the war, he
could have given form and content to his claim of waging a war of freedom.
Politically it would have made sense as TNA was in disarray and the UPFA
had an opportunity to make a real difference to the people. Evidently, he
decided to sacrifice the advantage to get a huge majority in parliament and get
elected for a second term.
Even as the election
results were streaming in President Rajapaksa was off to New York to attend the
UN General Assembly. He can now confidently face the audience to point to the
successful conduct of elections in the Northern Province, as promised. In a way
he is correct, by and large the election was conducted peacefully in spite of
the invisible dirty tricks department’s clumsy attempts at confusing the voters
and sporadic cases of intimidation of voters and a reported case of opening
fire at a van carrying voters. One can only hope Rajapaksa
takes note of the thumping chit people have given to TNA and facilitates
building a working relation with Chief Minister Wigneswaran.
And one can only hope
Wigneswaran’s troubles as chief minister are not beginning. He needs every ones
good wishes to succeed in his thankless task of getting the job done. And
that includes not only his electors, but also TNA leaders and the government of
President Rajapaksa.
(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence
specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri
Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for
China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org)
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