India-China Border issue and the Modi-Xi talks

Col R Hariharan

[Here are the answers to two questions raised by an overseas newspaper on the future progress of India-China border issue after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping had formal talks for the first time on September 18, 2014.]

1.  How is the momentum for the border talks going after the statements by the two leaders?

It is unreasonable to expect sudden  momentum in the border talks after PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping had their first ever formal talks. The border issue is a complex one with variables on the basis on which both India and China have been putting forth their arguments .for the last half a century That is why even after 17 rounds of talks so far 'substantive progress' has not been made except for evolving some control mechanism  acceptable to both sides which seems to work in fits and starts.

If we go through the statements of Modi and Xi, it is evident both are very clear in what they want and how to go about handling the issue. But there is a qualitative difference between their basic approach to the border issue. Modi considers it fundamental to building enduring win-win relations with China. Xi would like to strengthen the bonds betwen the two countries on many other issues where their goals converge. Probably he expects the border issue to be resolved when the climate of confidence in each other is strengthened through bonding. This has apparently influenced the talks salient points of which are as follows.  

Modi

The Indian PM was apparently irked by the PLA posing a confrontation with Indian troops in the Line of Actual Control (LAC) even while he was extending a red carpet welcome to the Chinese President.  Apparently this made him not to mince words while bringing attention to the contentious issues faced by India in the strong statement he made at the end of his talks with Xi.  Essential points he made indicate his thought process:

a. Border issue: There is no doubt that both India and China desire building close bonds with each other and benefit from it. However, resolution of border issue is fundamental to fostering closer relationship. So the issue needs to be resolved speedily.

b. On trade relations: India expects China to provide a level playing ground for Indian trade and investment. China has to remove existing restrictions on Indian business to facilitate closer trade relations with China. India would extend similar facilities to Chinese investment and trade. India welcomes Chinese investment and involvement in infrastructure building including railways and power (understanding nuclear issue probably relates to this).

c. Other issues: India was prepared to liberalise issue of visa to Chinese tourists and businessmen. However it would be help if China refrains from  irksome actions like issuing stapled visas to Indian nationals hailing from disputed territory.

Xi Jinping

Prior to visiting India, Xi  was probably irked by Modi's trip to Japan and showing the close personal rapport he had with PM Shinzo Abe. So Xi was probably trying to gauge Modi's style by allowing Chinese border troops to bring the border issue to a head even as he was meeting with Modi. China had been accustomed to doing this in the past. He probably expected Modi to soft pedal confrontational issue on the border during the talks and in the public as earlier Indian prime ministers, notably Dr Manmohan Singh, had done. But he realised Modi was clear headed  on his approach to China and its leader. Modi's assertive style did not allow him to mince his words on his strong feelings on the border question. This was probably acknowledged by Xi when he said that Indians were 'more confident now.' As Xi is equally assertive, he countered every point made by Modi giving his own perception. These are:  

a. Border issue: Both China and India are keen to develop closer and cordial relations and except for 'small problems' along the 'undemarcated' border (what India refers as LAC in Ladakh region and China does not recognise the LAC) usually resolved by talking. There had been no military confrontation in the border between the two nations. He expects the issue to resolved through continued the talks on border issue (which had made substantive progress) paving the way for better understanding between the two countries.

b. On trade relations: Xi probably expected India to woo China all the way offering special concessions (as other smaller South Asian powers have done) to attract China's investment. But this did not happen as in addition to border issue, Modi focused on  issues like  reducing India's trade deficit as a key to the process and raised a number of problems India faced in trading with  China. Probably in a bid to achieve greater clarity till Modi introduces some improvements, Xi scaled down the much publicised expectation of China investing $ 100 billion in next five years (as against Japan's promised investment of $ 34 billion as stated by the Chinese Consul General in Mumbai) till China is convinced India would make it profitable for China to  invest and trade in India. On the other hand, Xi seems to recognise problems of Indian trade in China. So he said China would ease restrictions on Indian pharma imports and investment soon; on other trade issues he expected progress in the next five years.

c. On other issues: As relations progress Xi expected reciprocal improvement on issues like visa for each others nationals. Both nations desire for closer relations would help this process and find solutions to problems

2.  Do you see the two governments are more determined to solve the border disputes, or that we should not expect anything substantial coming out soon?

Of course they are determined to solve the border dispute. But it is a complex one impinging upon strong national sentiments. Modi and his ruling BJP have strong nationalistic views on the border question. Xi has been emphasising territorial integrity and harmony in the border regions as China's "core principles" to realise the Chinese Dream.

Summary

The resolution of the border issue is going to be a long drawn process for the following reasons:

a. China claims Indian territories in  Ladakh region (China has already occupied Aksai Chin area) and the whole of Arunachal Pradesh state (Southern Tibet as China calls it). The issues in the two claim areas are totally different and a blanket solution will not be acceptable to Indian people whose national identity would be affected. China does not have this problem.

b. China has not helped to speed up the process. For instance, years back both sides agreed to carry out a survey of approximate course of the Mc Mahon Line on which Indian border in Northeast is at present based. Though both countries carried out the survey, China has not handed over its maps as India had done. This has stalled the process because it has nothing to lose by stalling the process of resolving border issue while India is likely to be the loser in any compromise solution.

c. So it requires a lot of political will and convergence between the two countries and the two assertive leaders to sell any solution to their people before they can implement it. There appears to be little chance of such a solution in the medium term in both the countries.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: haridirect@gmail.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ]  

China and India-Japan relations: Q and A

Col R Hariharan

[Answers to questions raised by the correspondent of an international weekly on September 16, 2014 on the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan in the context of China’s President Xi Jingping’s visit to India are given here.]

Modi's back to back meetings with Abe and Xi - should we read something in to it?

We should see China's reaction to Modi getting cozy with Abe in the larger context of Xi-Abe confrontation espectially after Abe started asserting Japanese strategic power (he is trying to get the constitution amended so that Japan will formally have armed forces). This was seen in Japan's strident posture to counter to Chinese navy's aggressive moves in S China Sea.

Modi appears to have gained greater confidence in handling China after meeting Abe. For example, in the past India had developed cold feet when the Chinese objected to India's offshore drilling in Vietnam's disputed waters. But it appears to have mustered courage after Modi-Abe meeting to reassert India’s interest in S China Sea. In fact India's foreign minister Sushma Swaraj is visiting Vietnam right now. 

But Japan can help India only based on its self-interest. It still has strong strategic ties with the US (US does not seem to be particularly happy with Abe's power projection) which could come under strain if Abe-Xi confrontation is translated into armed confrontation. So Abe probably wants to build better strategic relations with India which has geographic advantage as a major military power on China's land borders. India is also a naval power of reckoning (though much weakened due to mismanagement) in Indian Ocean Region where China is making strategic forays.

Is India baiting China with Japan?

Baiting is a strong word. Modi is only leveraging China's concerns about Japan-India stategic bonding in the context of Japan's strategic diamond concept (Japan-Australia-US-India strategic networking) though India has not positively responded to Japan so far.

Modi's main interest now is to kick start the economy and for that he needs huge investments to improve infrastructure, and manufacturing industry.  He is leveraging his personal equation with Abe to bring Japanese investments in these sectors which have generated competitive response from China.

Modi also wants Japan's investment to revamp defence industry to meet India's huge defence requirements. For strategic reasons, China's involvement in this is ruled out. Japan has investible money and technology to meet this requirement (though American patent regime can dampen them).

What is the significance of Xi's visit to India?
 

China has greater strategic relevance than Japan as it can impact India's strategic interests more strongly in real time. India has already embarked on the process of building win-win relations wtih China  started under Manmohan Singh's leadership. But it had been making slow progress. Modi probably wants to ginger up this process and Xi's visit provides an ideal opportunity for him to do so.  

India faces other compulsions in the competitive relationship building process with China and Japan. 

a.   India knows its strategic relations with Japan will probaly continue to be conditioned by Japan's umbillical relations with the US. In case of any India-China confrontation, this could act as rider on Japan's support for India (unless of course in the unlikely scenario of Japanese state also facing a Chinese threat at the same time). This limits the scope for India-Japan strategic relations to flourish. 

b.     Chinese government has a bigger investible amount at its disposal through the public sector companies. So it is not surprising the Chinese are flaunting $ 100 bn to invest in India against Japan's offer of $34 bn. As opposed to this, Japan's investments are dominated by private players. They have been very cautious in investing in India in the past due to lack of systemic improvement. So their interest could be dampened as India's structural and systemic reform process would take sometime to complete. And Modi needs huge investments immediately, China can probably respond faster than Japan. 

c.    China has the strategic option to tweak the border issue with India at a time of its choosing (just as it is reminding India of its national interest on the subject even on the eve of Xi's visit). India does have a similar advantage in tweaking the borders as well as the Tibetan issue. But India's infrastructure and force levels impose greater limitations to do this. Moreover, such conduct does not conform to India's diplomatic and leadership culture. So it suits both India and China to maintain the status quo.

d.    Lastly, China has already entered S Asia in a big way. It's already influencing policy decisions of India's neighbours. China is selling its Maritime Silk Road (MSR) concept to India's neighbours. It wants India also to partner China in this endeavour. Despite MSR's negative strategic implications for India, MSR can benefit India only if Chinese involvement in S Asia is managed properly. This is possible only if cordial relations are maintained with China.

    Xi's visit is of special significance because of the strategic convergence relations he enjoys with Modi. 

Xi also has compulsions to shore up the economy which is slowing down. He needs to open up India's huge markets for Chinese products and services to help put Chinese economy in its feet. 

[Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: haridirect@gmail.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info]  

China and Modi’s relationship building with Japan

Col R Hariharan

[This article written on September 4 was updated on September 13, 2014.]

Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Japan probably achieved less than what India desired, it did achieve handsome results.  Japan promised $ 34-billion investment in India in the next five years. Though the much awaited India-Japan civilian nuclear deal did not come through, the two leaders agreed to accelerate talks on a nuclear energy pact.[i] Both the countries have already agreed upon strengthening their strategic cooperation which would be intensified now. 

But more than all these, Modi made a mark in Japan more strongly than any of his predecessors had done. It went well beyond the warm personal equation he enjoys with the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He put through a well orchestrated programme to appeal to all sections of Japanese society.  Overall, the visit was a success as it has paved way for speeding up multifaceted cooperation between the two Asian powers. and it was uncannily timed before China's President Xi Jinping's visit to India.

 Even though Indian TV scribes were debating Modi’s 100 days performance rather than analysing the strategic implications of  his visit to Japan, China was paying close attention to it. And they had every reason to be concerned if we go by the outpouring of articles on the visit in China’s media.

China’s ‘scant comfort’ with Modi-Abe bonhomie seen during the visit probably led the Global Times’s to call its editorial as “Modi-Abe intimacy brings scant comfort.”[ii][ii] The Communist Party web magazine’s editorial apparently tried to read between the lines in Modi’s call on both the countries to strengthen strategic cooperation to promote peace and prosperity in Asia and counter an expansionist mind-set.  

However, the trigger for the Communist Party magazine’s irritation was perhaps Modi’s remarks while addressing the business leaders in Tokyo. Modi had said: "Everywhere around us, we see an 18th century expansionist mind-set: encroaching on another country, intruding in others' waters, invading other countries and capturing territory." 

Referring to the remarks the editorial added: “Japanese and Western public opinion views his remarks as a clear reference to China, although he did not mention China by name. This interpretation made some sense because Modi is more intimate to Tokyo emotionally. Therefore it is perhaps a fact that he embraces some nationalist sentiments against China.” And probably this is what makes China very uncomfortable with Modi. 

The Global Times tried to rationalise the advantage of India’s relations with China by saying, “The increasing intimacy between Tokyo and New Delhi will bring at most psychological comfort to the two countries. What is involved in China-India relations denotes much more than the display of the blossoming personal friendship between Modi and Abe. After all, Japan is located far from India. Abe's harangue on the Indo-Pacific concept makes Indians comfortable.”

It reminded that it was South Asia “where New Delhi has to make its presence felt. However, China is a neighbour it can't move away from. Sino-Indian ties can in no way be counterbalanced by the Japan-India friendship….Both as new emerging countries and members of BRICS, China and India have plenty of interests in common. Geopolitical competition is not the most important thing for the two countries, at least at present (emphasis added).” 

Such comments in the op-ed showed China’s difficulty in coming to terms with Modi’s readiness to improve India’s relations with China to do business while showing equal keenness to improve strategic cooperation with Japan. This is compounded by Modi inviting Japanese investments in infrastructure, particularly railways, and manufacturing industries many of which would be in direct competition with China’s trade and investment interests in India. And more than these, Japan’s readiness to ease export restrictions to allow Japanese defence firms to participate in India’s huge weapons market is an offer that China cannot match.

The irony of Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Japan was it coincided with the 69^th anniversary of Japanese surrender celebrated with all pomp and show in China. Even as Modi was completing his five-day visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping addressing symposium on the occasion urged Japan “to admit and reflect on its history of militarist aggression.” At the same time he sounded an ominous warning to Japan: “With the utmost resolution and effort, we will join with people all over the world to safeguard the victory in the Chinese Peoples’ War of Resistance against Japanese aggression and the world war against fascism.”

With the battle lines drawn between China and Japan, both Prime Minister Modi and  President Xi will be a little cautious while discussing each other’s strategic concerns when they meet for formal talks for the first time in the next few days. While Modi has to keep in mind the fractious Sino-Japanese relations, Xi will have the more difficult task to soft sell China’s rapidly escalating involvement in strategic cooperation with Pakistan.

Chinese analyst Liu Zongyi writing in the Global Times aptly summed up Modi’s dilemma: “Modi's biggest challenge is to kick start a lagging economy. India needs Japan's investment and technology, but it also needs economic cooperation with China.” [iii]

And Global Times editorial advice: “Maintaining strategic independence is India's diplomatic tradition. It's also in the Indian interest to be a balancer in the international system,” is probably more apt for China. It is not exactly known for balancing its international relations with nuance.[iv] 

One of the key objectives of President Xi’s talks with Modi will be to wean away India from the lure of Japan. So it is not surprising Beijing is holding out a carrot of $ 100 billion Chinese investment in India. And the huge delegation of leading lights of Chinese business and five major banks accompanying the Chinese President underscores President Xi’s serious efforts to win over Modi.[v]

But the reported Chinese troops’ intrusion into Indian territory in Ladakh (in Demchok sector) on September 11, even in the midst of all media hype on Xi’s visit, exposes the soft underbelly of India-China relations. And this is where Japan has an edge over China in dealing with India.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia  is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: haridirect@gmail.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info]  

Notes 

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[i] PTI/BBC September 1, 2014, Abe’s gift to Modi: Japan pledges $33.8 bn for Indian infra projects, http://firstbiz.firstpost.com

 

[ii] Global Times, Editorial, Modi-Abe intimacy brings scant comfort, September 2, 2014 www.globaltimes.cn

 

[iii] Global Times September 1, 2014, Modi knows China relations more important in long run,www.globaltimes.cn  

[iv] Global Time, Editorial ibid September 2, 2014 www.globaltimes.cn

[v] ‘China to invest $100 billion in India over 5 years’, September 13, 2014 Times of India, Mumbai http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com