Col R Hariharan
[This article written on September 4 was updated on
September 13, 2014.]
Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
recent visit to Japan probably achieved less than what India desired, it did
achieve handsome results. Japan promised
$ 34-billion investment in India in the next five years. Though the much
awaited India-Japan civilian nuclear deal did not come through, the two leaders
agreed to accelerate talks on a nuclear energy pact.[i]
Both the countries have already agreed upon strengthening their strategic
cooperation which would be intensified now.
But more than all these, Modi made a mark
in Japan more strongly than any of his predecessors had done. It went well
beyond the warm personal equation he enjoys with the Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe. He put through a well orchestrated programme to appeal to all
sections of Japanese society. Overall,
the visit was a success as it has paved way for speeding up multifaceted
cooperation between the two Asian powers. and it was uncannily timed before
China's President Xi Jinping's visit to India.
Even though Indian TV scribes were
debating Modi’s 100 days performance rather than analysing the strategic
implications of his visit to Japan, China was paying close attention to
it. And they had every reason to be concerned if we go by the outpouring of
articles on the visit in China’s media.
China’s ‘scant comfort’ with Modi-Abe
bonhomie seen during the visit probably led the Global Times’s to call
its editorial as “Modi-Abe intimacy brings scant comfort.”[ii][ii]
The Communist Party web magazine’s editorial apparently tried to read between
the lines in Modi’s call on both the countries to strengthen strategic
cooperation to promote peace and prosperity in Asia and counter an expansionist
mind-set.
However, the trigger for the Communist
Party magazine’s irritation was perhaps Modi’s remarks while addressing the
business leaders in Tokyo. Modi had said: "Everywhere around us, we see an
18th century expansionist mind-set: encroaching on another country, intruding
in others' waters, invading other countries and capturing territory."
Referring to the remarks the editorial
added: “Japanese and Western public opinion views his remarks as a clear
reference to China, although he did not mention China by name. This
interpretation made some sense because Modi is more intimate to Tokyo
emotionally. Therefore it is perhaps a fact that he embraces some nationalist
sentiments against China.” And
probably this is what makes China very uncomfortable with Modi.
The Global Times tried to
rationalise the advantage of India’s relations with China by saying, “The
increasing intimacy between Tokyo and New Delhi will bring at most
psychological comfort to the two countries. What is involved in China-India
relations denotes much more than the display of the blossoming personal
friendship between Modi and Abe. After all, Japan is located far from India.
Abe's harangue on the Indo-Pacific concept makes Indians comfortable.”
It reminded that it was South Asia “where
New Delhi has to make its presence felt. However, China is a neighbour it can't
move away from. Sino-Indian ties can in no way be counterbalanced by the
Japan-India friendship….Both as new emerging countries and members of BRICS,
China and India have plenty of interests in common. Geopolitical competition is
not the most important thing for the two countries, at least at present
(emphasis added).”
Such comments in the op-ed showed China’s
difficulty in coming to terms with Modi’s readiness to improve India’s
relations with China to do business while showing equal keenness to improve
strategic cooperation with Japan. This is compounded by Modi inviting Japanese
investments in infrastructure, particularly railways, and manufacturing
industries many of which would be in direct competition with China’s trade and
investment interests in India. And more than these, Japan’s readiness to ease
export restrictions to allow Japanese defence firms to participate in India’s
huge weapons market is an offer that China cannot match.
The irony of
Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Japan was it coincided with the 69th
anniversary of Japanese surrender celebrated with all pomp and show in China.
Even as Modi was completing his five-day visit, Chinese President Xi
Jinping addressing symposium on the occasion urged Japan “to admit and reflect
on its history of militarist aggression.” At the same time he sounded an
ominous warning to Japan: “With the utmost resolution and effort, we will join with
people all over the world to safeguard the victory in the Chinese Peoples’ War
of Resistance against Japanese aggression and the world war against fascism.”
With the battle
lines drawn between China and Japan, both Prime Minister Modi and President Xi will be a little cautious while
discussing each other’s strategic concerns when they meet for formal talks for
the first time in the next few days. While Modi has to keep in mind the
fractious Sino-Japanese relations, Xi will have the more difficult task to soft
sell China’s rapidly escalating involvement in strategic cooperation with
Pakistan.
Chinese
analyst Liu Zongyi writing in the Global Times aptly summed up Modi’s
dilemma: “Modi's biggest challenge is to kick start
a lagging economy. India needs Japan's investment and technology, but it also
needs economic cooperation with China.” [iii]
And Global Times editorial advice: “Maintaining strategic
independence is India's diplomatic tradition. It's also in the Indian interest
to be a balancer in the international system,” is probably more apt for China.
It is not exactly known for balancing its international relations with nuance.[iv]
One of the key objectives of President Xi’s talks with Modi will
be to wean away India from the lure of Japan. So it is not surprising Beijing
is holding out a carrot of $ 100 billion Chinese investment in India. And the
huge delegation of leading lights of Chinese business and five major banks
accompanying the Chinese President underscores President Xi’s serious efforts
to win over Modi.[v]
But the reported Chinese troops’ intrusion into Indian territory
in Ladakh (in Demchok sector) on September 11, even in the midst of all media
hype on Xi’s visit, exposes the soft underbelly of India-China relations. And
this is where Japan has an edge over China in dealing with India.
[Col R Hariharan, a retired Military
Intelligence specialist on South Asia is associated with the Chennai
Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info]
Notes
[i] PTI/BBC September 1, 2014, Abe’s
gift to Modi: Japan pledges $33.8 bn for Indian infra projects, http://firstbiz.firstpost.com
[ii] Global Times, Editorial, Modi-Abe
intimacy brings scant comfort, September 2, 2014 www.globaltimes.cn
[iii] Global Times September 1, 2014, Modi knows China relations more important in long run,www.globaltimes.cn
[v] ‘China to invest $100 billion in India
over 5 years’, September 13, 2014 Times of India, Mumbai http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com
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