Col
R Hariharan
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s
visit to Pakistan to be scheduled along with his visit to India this month has
been cancelled. It was strategically a very important visit for both China and
Pakistan and a lot of preparation had gone into it.
Evidently the cancellation was
related to the political paralysis in which the Nawaz Sharif government finds
itself. This has been so for over three weeks after Imran Khan-Tahirul
Qadri duo have laid siege to the parliament calling for resignation of the
Nawaz government.
The crisis in Pakistan
highlights the arc of instability in the Af-Pak region which could become a
major game changer in the strategic scene in South Asia. This region poses a
major dilemma for President Xi when he holds formal talks with Prime Minister
Narendra Modi to build a win-win relationship between the two countries as both
India and China have competing strategic interests in the region.
Even before the political
crisis in Pakistan, the Af-Pak was heading for a period of instability due to
the expected resurgence of Jihadi terrorism after the last of the American
troops thin out by end 2014.
Pakistan had been using
terrorists operating from its soil to strategically ‘bleed’ India. Like India,
Afghanistan also has been ‘bled’ by fraternal Jihadi terrorists operating from
sanctuaries in Pakistan. So, political crisis in Pakistan would affect Af-Pak
region much more than developments elsewhere.
Both the Asian giants would
need greater convergence in their actions to successfully handle developments
which affect them both. Both Prime Minister Modi and President Xi will be
required to take some hard decisions on this count without compromising their
national interests if the talks are to make meaningful progress.
However, Chinese leader’s
dilemmas appear more complex than India’s as China has invested heavily in
creating strategic assets in its Western border regions, Pakistan, as well as
Central Asia. According to a September 2013 assessment “China has come to
displace both the United States and Russia as the great power with the most
influence in Central Asia.”[i][i]
At the moment Pakistan, rather
than Afghanistan, looks more unstable. Democracy is on a precarious perch after
the Nawaz Sharif government was compelled to seek the help of the army when
thousands of followers of two opposition groups - Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
(PTI) and the Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) – entered the secure area of the
National Assembly and the Secretariat.
The army’s lukewarm response to
the situation followed by the breach of security zone by agitators has raised
serious doubts about the role of its role in triggering the crisis. The two
opposition parties demanding the resignation of the Nawaz Sharif government are
suspected to be proxy of Pakistan army. Even in the early stages, Pakistani
columnists considered it a sort of soft coup.[ii][ii]
Political parleys have yielded
no results, as leaders of both sides do not appear to be willing to give in.
Prolonged paralysis of the government which enjoys 209-seat majority in the
342-member parliament would help justify Army intervention. Though the Army has
denied any such intention, the chances for it are increasing with the
continuing political gridlock.
In this context, the Chinese
Premier Li Keqiang’s timely reiteration of China’s support to Pakistan “realize
national security, stability and economic development” on August 27, 2014 when
a Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) delegation called upon him is interesting. On
the occasion he also said China also “supports Pakistan's efforts to safeguard
its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, while hoping it can
ensure the safety of Chinese projects and people there.” [iii][iii]
These are probably not merely
words of solidarity but an affirmation of China’s strategic interest in
Pakistan’s political stability for other countries (particularly India) to take
notice.
On the occasion Premier Li also
“vowed to work with Pakistan to build an economic corridor between the two
countries, and promote the construction of the ‘One Belt and One Road’ with
countries in the region to push forward regional economic integration.” China
had been promoting the "One Belt and One Road" refers to the
"Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st Century Maritime Silk
Road" concepts ever since President Xi spoke about them during his visit
to Central Asia and Southeast Asia in 2013.
In fact, President Xi was supposed to sign
investment agreements worth $32 billion with the Pakistan during his visit.
Pakistan economy strapped for cash badly needs the Chinese investment for a
revival. Politically, the cancellation of the visit was “insulting, disgraceful
and a big diplomatic and economic blow” as described by Minister Ahsan Iqbal,
who blamed the two opposition leaders for it. [iv][iv]
Premier Li Keqiang when he visited Pakistan in
May 2013 mooted the proposal for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Both countries are now fleshing it out. China sees it as “a driver for
connectivity between South Asia and East Asia.” Pakistan President Mamnoon
Hussain in his maiden visit to Beijing in February 2014 focused on this project
which he said was “a monument of the century…” benefitting “not only Pakistan and
China, but also the whole region with billions of people.”
The CPEC envisages linking
Kashgar in Xinjiang with Gwadar Port in Pakistan coast. The link involving
Karakoram Highway (1300 km), Indus Highway (1264 km) and Makran Coastal Highway
(653 km) is being constructed by China. A parallel high speed railway system is
also part of the CPEC.
When completed the CPEC would
radically change China’s strategic capability not only in South Asia but West
Asia as well. It would add more muscle to China-Pakistan strategic alliance in
this region.
The CPEC is expected to spark
economic boom in Xinjiang where China is making big investments in
infrastructure and industry. But the success of CPEC is possible only if the
Af-Pak region is terrorism free and Pakistan remains politically stable.
China has the ability to
weather tectonic changes in Pakistan politics as it enjoys a lot of goodwill in
all constituencies (including pro-Taliban right wing elements). In the words of
Oslo-based analyst Qandeel Siddique, Sino-Pak relations are strongest in
diplomatic and defence collaboration “rooted in over-lapping geo-strategic
interest and threat perceptions.” He
identifies India as “one common adversary” united China and Pakistan and
“arguably remains the germane reason for Sino-Pak alliance.”[vi][v]
China’s ‘all weather’
friendship is one of the three aspects – the other two being nuclear bomb and
claim on Kashmir – in which Pakistani people are unanimously agreed. According
to a recent poll 81% Pakistanis consider China favourably.[viii][vi]
So far this environment has
probably enabled Pakistan to satisfy China’s concerns about the presence of
Uighur extremists of ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) in Pakistan.
Pakistan has conveniently blamed outsiders (obviously from the US and India) as
the root cause even for the attacks on Chinese workers in Gwadar.
Pakistan had also been taking
quick action to apprehend and repatriate Uighur extremists wanted by China. A
case in point was the repatriation of ETIM leader Memetuhut Memetrozi (41) who
is now serving a life sentence in Xinjiang. China had generally been playing
down the Pakistan links of ETIM though the establishments in both countries are
aware of them.
However the present
understanding between China and Pakistan on handling Uighur terrorists may well
be tested as the scale and spread of Uighur extremist attacks in China has
increased in the last 18 months.[x][vii]
China is seriously concerned
about its spill over as far as Beijing and Kunming in Yunnan. It is evident that
worsening Uighur insurgency situation is of serious concern to China. The rare
public revelation carried in Chinese media on August 27 on Pakistani links to
Uighur militancy in reporting Memetuhut’s confession of his indoctrination by
extremists at a madarasa in Pakistan was probably intended to send message to
Pakistan to clean up its act.[xi][viii]
Perhaps sensing China’s
increasing concerns, when Pakistan President Mamnoon Hussain met President Xi
in May 2014, called the East Turkestan ‘terrorism forces’ a common enemy of
Pakistan and China and vowed to make joint efforts with China to combat them.
President Xi said that China
backed Pakistan in practicing a counter-terrorism strategy based on its
“national conditions” and was willing to enhance bilateral security cooperation
“to safeguard the peace and stability of the two countries and the region.”[xii][ix] It is
evident China views counter-terrorism as part of its overall strategic security
cooperation with Pakistan.
India faces a more complex
terrorist threat from Pakistan based terrorists. Paksitan army’s intelligence
arm ISI’s involvement with Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Tayaba terrorists is
well established. Their activity in Jammu and Kashmir has continued to be aided
and abetted by the ISI regardless of Pakistan’s political prounouncments.
In Afghanistan potential for
political instability has increased with the simmering post-presidential
election confrontation between the President-in waiting Dr Ashraf Ghani and the
defeated rival Dr Abdulla Abdulla. This could turn into the beginning of yet
another ethnic confrontation between Pashtuns and Tajiks. And that could be
hastened when Taliban terrorism blows up once again after the US troops are
pulled out of Afghanistan.
India has serious concerns
about China’s forays into South Asia and Indian Ocean Region which have strong
strategic connotations for Indian security and national interest. And the
developments in Af-Pak region and China’s likely response to them remain in the
realms of speculation.
In spite of this, Prime
Minister Modi has now provided China an opportunity to broad base its
relationship with India. China’s dilemma would be how to handle India without
jeopardising its strategic interests as well avail the opportunity to promote
better strategic and trade ties with India.
The developments in Af-Pak
region, particularly the fall out of Pak political paralysis, would make
President Xi’s task a little more complicated. He has to manage it successfully
when he talks to Prime Minister Modi to make its silk route strategies a
success. China simply cannot ignore India because of its sheer size and
strategic domination of South Asia.
[Col Hariharan, former MI
officer, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South
Asia Analysis Group. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:
http://col.hariharan.info]
[i][i] Martha Brill Olcott ‘China’s unmatched
influence in Central Asia’ September 2013, Carnegie Endowment http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/09/18/china-s-unmatched-influence-in-central-asia/gnky
[iii][iii] ‘China supports
Pakistan’s security, development: premier, Xinhua news agency, August 28, 2014 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/
[vi][v] Qandeel
Siddique, “Deeper than Indian Ocean? – An analysis of Pakistan-China
relationship,” SISA Report no. 16-2014, Centre for International and Strategic
Analysis, Oslo, February 2014. http://strategiskanalyse.no/Publikasjoner%202014/2014-02-27_SISA16_Sino-Pak_QS.pdf
[x][vii] Terrorist attacks in China: Data, Global
Times, http://www.globaltimes.cn/lazy-pack/counter-terrorism/index.html
[xi][viii] ‘China
jihadi outfit leader admits to Pak terror links’ Times of India, August 28,
2014 http://timesofindia.com
[xii][ix] ‘China, Pakistan vow to
strengthen anti-terrorism cooperation’ Xinhua news agency, May 22, 2014 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/
No comments:
Post a Comment