India would, however, prefer Sirisena-Wickremesinghe to win as it has struck a good rapport with the island nation's incumbent government
Former Sri Lanka
president Mahinda Rajapaksa announced that he would accept his loyal supporters
demand to contest the forthcoming parliamentary election to be held on August
17. According to media reports, thousands of supporters who had gathered at his
home ground in Medamulana cheered him when he said “I am not ready to reject
the appeal you are all making.” He indicated that he would be rallying his
supporters across all parties “for the sake of the country, for the sake of
mother land, we must contest the upcoming parliamentary election.
Earlier president
Maithripala Sirisena dissolved the parliament and set the date for the
election. The announcements
of both the incumbent and former presidents were not unexpected. Time was
running out for Sirisena after he failed to hammer out a consensus within the Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) on rejecting the loyalists’ demand for nominating
Rajapaksa as the party candidate for prime minister. According to Sri Lanka
columnists, President Sirisena’s secret talks with the former president also
failed to persuade Rajapaksa not to contest the election to avoid a split
in the party.
There were other compulsions for President
Sirisena to dissolve the parliament. Already, Rajapaksa loyalists’s within the United
People Freedom Alliance (UPFA) parliamentary party ranks had swelled to 80
plus. Any further delay could have not only eroded President Sirisena’s support
within the party while enlarging Rajapaksa’s support base, but it would also
help his detractors to push through the no confidence motion against
Sirirsena’s political ally ruling alliance partner Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe pending before the parliament. Wickremesinghe leads the United
National Party (UNP) traditional opponents of SLFP. With Rajapaksa loyalists
bent upon splitting the SLFP votes, President Sirisena needs the UNP as an electoral
ally to prevent Rajapaksa from coming back to power.
Though Sirisena-Wickremesinghe
combine was able to fulfil some of the important poll promises it still has an unfinished poll agenda that
could neutralize all the good things done so far. However, none can deny the national
alliance had succeeded in creating a freer political atmosphere without the
intelligence and security guys disrupting the activities of Opposition parties,
media and the NGOs pampered by stoking the paranoia of foreign conspiracies
against the country.
The combine also
succeed the 19th Constitutional Amendment, as promised in parliament,
which seeks pruning the sweeping powers the executive president enjoyed and
increasing the powers of prime minister and parliament to prevent the meddling
with the national institutions like the judiciary, election commission and
police. Though the 19th Amendment to the constitution helps to
restore media freedom and attending to some of the long standing grievances of
the minority Tamils, much remains to be done.
A notable failure
of the Sirisena government was to get the
20th Constitutional Amendment
(20A) for reforming the electoral system passed in parliament. There were
fundamental differences between the SLFP and the UNP on the form and structure of
the proposed system. Despite Sirisena’s best efforts the differences could not
be reconciled. So Sri Lankans will now be electing a new parliament on August
17, a year before it was due, based on the present system. It is a mix of first past the post and
proportional representation systems in which the SLFP has been doing better
than its rival UNP.
The chances of
Sirisena and Wickremesinghe creating the anti-Mahtinda wave among the voters
that helped them defeat Rajapaksa once again for the parliamentary election
appear bleak. It seems to have lost
vigour on two counts: so far investigations into allegations of corruption against
the Rajapaksas have failed to unearth actionable evidence and the National
Alliance government has accumulated its own baggage of corruption allegations.
In addition to
this the massive minority votes – notably Tamil votes – that helped President
Sirisena to win by three percent plus margin may not be forthcoming as the
leading Tamil political combine Tamil National Alliance (TNA) had been unhappy
with the Sirisena government’s slow progress on Tamil issues.
The state owned Daily
News quoted SLFP sources to say the talks between Sirisena and “the SLFP
stalwarts” over accommodating Rajapaksa in the SLFP nomination list for the
next election ended inconclusively on June 29. Though the UPFA General
Secretary Premajayantha and SLFP General Secretary Priyadarshana Yapa had
insisted on Rajapaksa’s nomination as Prime Ministerial candidate of the party,
the UPFA Opposition Leader in parliament Nimal de Silva indicated that he was
willing to “sway with the wind.” This
actually reflects the shades of differences within the UPFA and SLFP.
With barely six
weeks to the election, political arrays are yet to emerge clearly. Sirisena
will have a tough job first to mend the SLFP split to enable the SLFP to form a
government on its own steam. With sections of SLFP and the minor partners of
UPFA backing Rajapaksa, Sirisena will find finalising a list of candidates acceptable
to all factions a challenging job.
Comparatively,
the UNP is in a better position as the party has delegated the job of candidate
selection to Ranil Wickremesinghe. But UNP’s problem is attracting smaller
parties to form a winning coalition. Smaller
parties like the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) who are opposed to
Mahinda Rajapaksa’s return will be watching the coalition contretemps to find a
face saving way to handle election uncertainties.
Political horse
trading has been developed into a fine art in Sri Lanka and politicians’
loyalties are as tradable as scrips in the stock market. Presumably, the next
ten days some clarity will emerge in the political scene when electoral
alliances are firmed in.
India would prefer
Sirisena-Wickremesinghe to win and form the government as it has established
better rapport and understanding with the Sirisena government. It has responded
positively to India’s sensitivities about China’s increasing influence in Sri
Lanka. It has visibly taken action to be equitable in handling its relations
with China and India. Even if Rajapaksa comes back to power, India may not lose
all that it has gained so far. Rajapaksa, as a shrewd politician, probably
understands the dynamics of Indian government has undergone a makeover under
Prime Minister Modi. So he is likely to factor it in his dealings with India,
though he would probably prefer to deal with China as he has a better equation
with it.
Tail piece added after publication: The UPFA announced on July 3 that it had decided to field former President Mahinda Rajapaksa in the general election. Former minister Dinesh Gunawardena announcing the media said the district where Rajapaksa would contest would be announced shortly. Significantly, the trade off of the loyalists for the UPFA decision was that Rajapaksa was not announced as the UPFA’s prime ministerial candidate. Apparently Rajapaksa is one up on Sirisena. As I always maintained Sri Lanka political theatre never fails to thrill. Rajapaksa’s nomination as UPFA candidate is going to trigger a fresh round of political palaver; let us sit back and enjoy the next episode.
Tail piece added after publication: The UPFA announced on July 3 that it had decided to field former President Mahinda Rajapaksa in the general election. Former minister Dinesh Gunawardena announcing the media said the district where Rajapaksa would contest would be announced shortly. Significantly, the trade off of the loyalists for the UPFA decision was that Rajapaksa was not announced as the UPFA’s prime ministerial candidate. Apparently Rajapaksa is one up on Sirisena. As I always maintained Sri Lanka political theatre never fails to thrill. Rajapaksa’s nomination as UPFA candidate is going to trigger a fresh round of political palaver; let us sit back and enjoy the next episode.
Courtesy: India Today Opinion
portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/rajapaksa-sirisena-slfp-ranil-wickremesinghe-unp-upfa-19th-constitutional-amendment/story/1/4749.html
Published as “Sri Lanka: Former
President Rajapaksa ready to stage a come back” South Asia Analysis Group Paper No 5963 dated 03-July-2016 http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/srilanka#sthash.2sNyqVWV.dpuf
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