Thursday, 2 July 2015

Sri Lanka security perspectives: June 2015

Col R Hariharan

President Sirisena dissolves parliament

Ending weeks of speculation President Maithripala Sirisena dissolved the parliament before the 20th Constitutional Amendment (20A) on reform of the electoral system was passed. Sri Lankans will now go to vote for a new parliament on August 17, a year before it was due. It will be based on the present electoral system – a mix of first past the post and proportional representation systems. The President had little option but to dissolve the parliament as the two major parties – the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the United National Party (UNP) as well as minority parties could not agree upon a viable electoral system.

Moreover, President Sirisena had to dissolve the parliament and call for the election two very important reasons. The state owned Daily News quoted SLFP sources to say the talks between Sirisena and “the SLFP stalwarts” over accommodating former President Rajapaksa in the SLFP nomination list for the next election ended inconclusively on June 29. Though the UPFA General Secretary Premajayantha and SLFP General Secretary Priyadarshana Yapa had insisted on Rajapaksa’s nomination as Prime Ministerial candidate of the party, the UPFA Opposition Leader in parliament Nimal de Silva indicated that he was willing to “sway with the wind.”  This actually reflects the shades of differences within the UPFA and SLFP.

According to the media, Sirisena’s secret meeting with Rajapaksa failed to discourage the latter from contesting the election. It was clear Rajapaksa loyalists within the SLFP would further undermine Sirisena’s nebulous control within the Party and step up their public campaign to bring back the former President to power.

Secondly, the President’s political partnership with the United National Party (UNP) would have come apart if the no confidence motions against Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, leader of the UNP, which was before the parliament had been passed in Parliament.

By not passing the 20A the President has failed to keep his poll promise to amend the constitution to introduce an electoral system representing the aspirations of majority and minority communities as well as different regions. However dissolving the parliament and going to polls was a better option than continuing with the gridlock over the form and content of 20A.

With barely six weeks to for the election, political arrays are yet to emerge clearly. Sirisena will have a tough job firstly to mend the SLFP split over bringing back Rajapaksa and the SLFP’s desire to form a government on its own steam. With the minor partners of UPFA backing Rajapaksa, Sirisena is likely to face a big challenge within the party when candidates for the election are picked. Comparatively the UNP is in a better position with the party giving approval for Ranil Wickremesinghe to select the UNP candidates. Smaller parties like the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) who are opposed to Mahinda Rajapaksa’s return will be watching the coalition contretemps to find a face saving way of handling election uncertainties. Presumably, the next ten days the political scene will emerge with some clarity when electoral alliances are formed.  

However, despite their efforts to fulfil their electoral promises, the chances of Sirisena and Wickremesinghe creating the anti-Mahtinda mood among the voters all over again appear bleak.  It seems to have lost vigour on two counts: actionable evidence against the Rajapaksas in the corruption investigations has so far eluded the investigators; and the National Alliance government is accumulating its own baggage of corruption allegations. But all is not lost for Sirisena-Ranil combine as political horse trading has been developed into a fine art in Sri Lanka and politicians’ loyalties are as uncertain as the monsoon rains.

Miscellaneous

Buddhist ultras enter politics: The Buddhist fundamentalist outfit Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) which had spearheaded the infamous anti-Muslim activism last year has decided to contest the forthcoming parliamentary poll as a political party under the name of Bodu Janatha Peramuna (BJP) – Buddhist Peoples Front. The BBS general secretary Galagoda Aththe Gnanasara Thera has said bhikkhus who form the backbone of BBS bhikkhus would not contest the election. The party is looking for suitable ‘qualified’ candidates.  The newly formed BJP is unlikely to make political headway in the elections as Buddhist right wing has other established parties like the JHU to support.

Defence ministry will no longer supervise NGOs: In a visible action of further liberalization of state controls, Sri Lanka government has announced that the Ministry of Defence would no longer be supervising the activities of NGOs in the country. Deputy Minister for Policy Planning and economic affairs Harsha De Silva made the announcement while addressing  a national consultation meet on ‘Humanitarianism in Sri Lanka: reaching new heights and goals’ organized in Colombo.

Joint army exercise with China; A joint training exercise ‘Silk Route 2015’ between Sri Lanka army’s Commando Regiment and Special Forces and the Peoples Liberation Army was inaugurated on June22 at Battala. The exercise will be run in three phases: Phase 1 from June 22 to 28 at Commando Regiment Training School (CRTS), Uva-Kudaoyaa; Phase-2 from June 28 to July 3 at CRTS, Gamemulla; and Phase-3 from July 5 t0 13 at Special Forces Training School at Maduruoya. These exercises aim at improving individual and joint skills in special and commando operations including mission planning, combat tracking, situation training, jungle warfare etc. Forty three troops from both sides are participating in the exercise. This exercise is a continuation of the first stage conducted in China from March 29 to April 17, 2015.

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, July 2015 issue Vol 9 No 6 www.security-risks.com 

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