There
is a lot of convergence in the outlook of the leaderships of the two countries
than before
COLONEL
R HARIHARAN @colhari2 |pOLITICS |7-minute read |14-09-2015
Sri
Lanka Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe is neither a stranger to the inner
circle of New Delhi politics nor an unfamiliar personality in the North Block. However,
during the last one year his profile has undergone a welcome makeover. This
seasoned political leader, known more for his failures than successes in his
repeated forays for power, pulled a political coup of sorts. With the help of
current Sri Lankan president Maithripala Sirisena, another political veteran
though from the opposition, Wickremesinghe thwarted former president Mahinda
Rajapaksa's bid for power twice!
The duo
defeated Rajapaksa's bid for a third term as president in January, and seven
months later, they outsmarted Rajapaksa’s attempt to come back to power using
his loyalists in the seemingly more powerful coalition – the United Peoples
Freedom Alliance (UPFA), in the recently held general election.
As a
result Prime Mininister Wickremesinghe now enjoys power with a public
endorsement of his political agenda twice within a year. Despite political
obstacles the Wickremesinghe-Sirisena duo had made some progress in living up
to the expectations of the public. Their
promises include increasing the accountability
of the executive president to the
parliament, empowerment of the prime minister and cleaning up the
administration of corruption and cronyism. Their work done so far, though still
not completed, has restored Sri Lanka’s credibility which was eroded both at
home and abroad by former president Rajapaksa’s autocratic style of governance.
Wickremesinghe
is heading a national alliance government - the first since 1977 - in which the
ruling United National Party (UNP) and the main opposition the Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) have come together. This has increased the chances of
promoting a national agenda to focus on development in an environment of unity,
peace and harmony. Former president Rajapaksa, failed to do just that despite
his singular success in getting rid of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)
once and for all. He frittered away five years of peace that followed the
military victory in May 2009 by focusing on strengthening his support base. As
a result the socio-political environment was vitiated by acrimony, distrust,
religious and ethnic polemics and strife.
This
has increased the chances of the present government making further progress in
its reform agenda despite the widespread cynicism in the political milieu. But Wickremesinghe
would be more confident than ever before when he visits New Delhi today for the
first time after becoming prime minister.
There
is a lot of convergence in the outlook of the leaderships in India and Sri
Lanka than before. Wickremesinghe’s agenda to correct Sri Lanka’s tilt towards
China after Rajapaksa had succumbed to its "fatal" charm in the areas
of strategic security and trade was one such area. So it was not surprising to
find the Ranil- Maithripala duo welcomed Prime Minister Modi's renewed efforts
to build a broadened and enduring relationship with Sri Lanka when he visited
the island nation some months back. They reciprocated his desire to get rid of other
kinks in the relations between the two countries that had appeared during the
earlier regime. This makes the Sri Lankan leader’s New Delhi visit a special
one as Sri Lanka government probably enjoys greater credibility in the
corridors of North Block than Rajapaksa.
Both
Wickremesinghe and Sirisena have also shown their readiness to act upon the
concerns of both India and the West including the US, which were dealt with
superficially during ten years of Rajapaksa rule. These issues are sure to be
included in Modi-Wickremesinghe talks even if they are not aired in public owing
to sensitivity over some of them in both countries.
Both India
and the West were irritated by Rajapaksa’s ploy to twist their concerns
over his government's dismal human rights record during and after the ethnic
conflict to whip up Sinhala nationalism and encourage xenophobia for his
political advantage. Similarly, he distorted their insistence on resuming the
political dialogue process with Tamil polity to resolve their long standing
demand for equity with Sinhala majority as encouragement to Tamil separatism.
This had
created problems for India as its negative fallout in Tamil Nadu politics
adversely affected the fortunes of successive governments in New Delhi. This had
cramped India’s efforts to meaningfully contribute to build a win-win
relationship with Sri Lanka. This weakness was exploited by China to enter Sri
Lanka in a big way.
Though
the coalition era has ended in New Delhi, ethnic amity in Sri Lanka will
continue to influence India’s policy not only due to its impact on Tamil Nadu
politics, but also in the interest of national security. India and Sri Lanka
are geographically too close to each other, making their national security
interests complimentary than contentious. This makes it necessary for them to
build a relationship that can be mutually reinforced, notwithstanding their unequal
sizes and strengths.
The political
dispensation for Sri Lanka Tamils will continue to remain one of the lynchpins for
the progress of India-Sri Lanka relations. The Wickremesinghe government had
tried to break the impasse in resuming the dialogue process with Tamils within
the ambit of 13th Amendment (13A) to the Constitution which is
supported by India. However, it will be politically difficult for the Sri Lanka
government to grant land and police powers envisaged in the 13A to the
provincial councils. We can expect this issue to come up when Modi and
Wickremesinghe meet, though it is a moot point whether it would go beyond
making cordial statements.
For
both India and the West, Rajapaksa reneging on his promises to them attend
their concerns went beyond matters of Sri Lanka’s internal politics; it became
a challenge to their strategic power assertion particularly after he got cozy
with China and provided a welcome strategic foothold for the Dragon in Sri
Lanka in India’s close proximity and midway in the Indian Ocean sea lanes
through which bulk of global maritime trade is conducted. This assumes
special significance in the light of China increasing assertion of is naval
power in Asia- Pacific region, particularly in the Indian Ocean.
From
the Sri Lankan perspective, there are some issues where it needs India’s help
and understanding. The UN Human Rights Council Rights Council (UNHRC) discussion
on Sri Lanka’s follow up actions taken on the US-sponsored resolution passed
three years back would come up on Friday, after the report of the UN Human
Rights Commissioner is presented. Though the US is likely to modify its insistence
on a UN sponsored international inquiry by accepting a domestic inquiry with
the assistance of the UNHRC, Sri Lanka needs Indian support to broaden its
support base. Though the US move has met with some political criticism in Tamil
Nadu and agitation by fringe elements, egged on by the Sri Lanka Diaspora,
India had always supported domestic inquiries in preference to international
ones. In view of this the compromise solution suggested by the US would
probably be supported by India.
The
second issue is Indo-Sri Lanka trade. During his Colombo visit, Prime Minister
Modi had revived the idea of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
(CEPA) between India and Sri Lanka. India had mooted the idea and it almost
came through in 2008. However, in the face of protest from local business, the
Rajapaksa government developed cold feet and gave it up. Sri Lanka is facing
exceptional economic crunch and problems of debt servicing for the servicing
the loans it had incurred. Even the IMF had been lukewarm to the idea of
lending more to Sri Lanka to service Chinese loans.
So Sri
Lanka urgently needs to hold India’s hand to see it through its crisis. However,
it will be difficult for Sri Lanka government to openly support CEPA as it is
probably a no-go area in Sri Lanka politics. However, it appears Sri Lanka
would not be averse to work out an economic arrangement similar to CEPA though
it may be called by a different name. This was indicated in a report in Sunday
Times, Colombo which quoted Sri Lanka Deputy Foreign Minister Harsha de
Silva as saying that CEPA issues were
likely to be among other important issues during the bilateral talks between
the two leaders. He added, “We must push for such agreements with countries
like India. However, we must not blindly enter into such agreements. We must
study in detail our own experiences and that of other similar countries to
negotiate the best deal for us. Any bilateral or multilateral trade agreement
that benefits Sri Lanka must be pursued.”
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