Losing grip on Levant means ISIS wants lone wolves to terrorise Europe

Losing grip on Levant means ISIS wants lone wolves to terrorise Europe

Germany seems to be slipping into the Islamic State’s arc of terror, much like France and Belgium

POLITICS | 6-minute read | 25-07-2016

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2

A “lone wolf” attacker a 27-year old Syrian refugee who has been refused asylum last year exploded a device carried in his rucksack killing self and injuring 12 others when he was refused entry into an open air concert hall attended by 2500 people in the Bavarian town of Ansbach on the night of July 23.

Though authorities have not established any links so far between the suicide bomber and the Islamic State terrorists, they have not ruled out the possibility of a terror attack. Obviously, unless he was driven by the motive to explode a bomb inside the concert hall, why would he carry it in his backpack?

Only two days earlier, an 18-year old German-born Iranian youth, Ali David Sonoboly, opened fire with a Glock pistol and killed nine people including children and injured 16 others in the McDonalds outlet near a mall in Bavarian capital of Munich. 

In his case also the authorities could find no links with the jihadi terrorists. They have attributed it to his mental obsession with mass killings.  

However, four days before the Munich attack, Mohammad Riyad, a 17-year old Afghan ( or is it a Pakistani?) refugee youth, wielding an axe attacked and wounded four people in a German train near a Northwest Bavarian town before he was shot dead.

In his case also, police found no apparent link between the quiet, well behaved young man and the ISIS. But later, they discovered in his house a hand-painted ISIS flag and a note in an exercise book saying “Pray for me that I can take revenge on these infidels and go to paradise.” A home video recovered there showed him brandishing a knife and boasting he was an IS soldier preparing for a mission.

The three lone wolf attacks, one after the other, has followed the ISIS carnage in Nice, France on July 14. On that day, a French-Tunisian drove a heavy truck through the Bastille Day crowds and killed 84 people and injured 300 others before he was shot dead.

Investigation has revealed he was a newly brainwashed ISIS cadre. Already Germans are nervous about refugees from the Middle East flooding the country. After three attacks by refugees and immigrants have been carried out within a week, their fears are likely to worsen whether the attackers’ jihadi terrorist connections are confirmed or not.

This raises two important questions.  

Can these incidents be dismissed as copycat attacks triggered by ISIS cadre? Or, is Germany slipping into the Islamic State terrorists’ arc of terror like France and Belgium?

These questions will be haunting the authorities already facing popular backlash of the Angela Merkel government’s sympathetic policy on giving asylum to the refugees from countries affected by the war against the ISIS.

As a result of the liberal policy, an estimated million refugees are said to have entered Germany in 2015. 

Germany has a population of nearly 4.5 million Muslims; massive influx of refugees belonging to the same religion has triggered ethnic and religious fears of Islam overwhelming Germany in the next two decades. Right wing political parties, preying upon popular fears about the refugees who could threaten their way of life, have grown in strength.

German security authorities have also warned about the refugee influx triggering civil conflict in Germany.  The Die Welt in an article “Security experts appalled at German policy” quoted a non-paper by security experts to say “We are importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples as well as a different understanding of society and law.”

This has made the government extremely cautious about attributing the attacks to Islamic terrorists immediately as French President Francois Hollande did after Nice attack.

The European Union police agency (Europol) has been worried about the growing threat of Islamic State terrorism in Europe, particularly lone wolf attacks. In a statement issued after the Nice attack, Europol said it highlights “the operational difficulties in detecting and disrupting the lone actor attacks.”  Its report was prepared on the day when senior government officials of 38 nations forming the international coalitions fighting terrorism were due to meet in Washington D.C., to discuss their operations.  

According to the Europol data in 2015, 151 people died (as against four in 2014) and more than 360 injured as a result of terror attacks in European Union. Except for one death, all others were the result of jihadi attacks. Six EU states faced a total of 211 terrorist attacks including those failed or foiled.

A total of 1077 people were arrested in terrorism-related offences. 

After the ISIS started losing its strongholds in Syria and Iraq, its activities are spreading farther across continents and getting bloodier. Even as the police in Ansbach were restoring normalcy in the town on Saturday morning, the ISIS struck in the distant Kabul, Afghanistan.  

Two Islamic State bombers detonated suicide belts to kill 80 persons and injure over 260 others among thousands of Hazaras - a Shia minority in the Sunni dominated Afghanistan – peacefully marching to demand better power connection for their region.  

In Brazil, on July 17 a group calling itself “Ansar al-Khalifah Brazil” appeared on social networking site Telegram pledging its allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi posted ISIS propaganda in Portuguese language.

Though Brazilian analysts dismissed it as mere propaganda, the authorities were not taking any chances during the upcoming Rio Olympics. They have arrested 10 people – all Brazilians - who allegedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State on social media and discussed possible attacks during the Olympics. Police are on the lookout for two more persons in this connection.  

The writing on the wall is clear: as the Europol warned the Islamic State threat is only going to get worse.

Even if driven out of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State is going to fight on because its tech-savvy psy-war is winning over vulnerable young Muslims, just as 15 young persons were lured from Kerala, to carry on its agenda.

And there is always a Pakistani connection to jihadi terrorism of any kind anywhere. Even Mohammed Riyad, the machete wielding attacker who went berserk in a Bavarian train, is suspected to be a Pakistani, who had entered Germany posing as a Syrian refugee.

According to Fox News, the police recovered from his room a Pakistani document that gave advice on areas to head for in Germany after crossing the border which were accepting more migrants than others!

With Pakistan and its state-sponsored terrorists breathing fire and sympathy across the border, Kashmiri youth egged on by separatists agitating on the streets of Srinagar are highly vulnerable to the psychological impact of ISIS’ gory deeds spreading across continents.  

We should never discount it because it may not be politically the most fashionable thought.

#Germany, #Nice,  #Ansbach attack,  #Islamic State

Courtesy:  India Today opinion portal DailyO.in

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/islamic-state-ansbach-attack-nice-germany-france-belgium-munich-terrorism-orlando-european-union-syrian-refugees/story/1/11995.html

Will Pakistan ever allow peace a chance in Kashmir?

It seems Pakistan is preparing to go for the jugular as weak governance seems to prevail in the state

POLITICS | 6-minute read | 18-07-2016

COLONEL R HARIHARAN |@colhari2

The answer to this question is a simple no, if we look at all the smoke and thunder generated by Pakistan at home and abroad and even in the UN Security Council after the Kashmiri militant leader Burhan Wani was killed in an encounter.

There are many reasons why Pakistan chose to react so strongly with a grim-faced Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif describing Burhan Wani as martyr of Kashmiri independence movement at a special cabinet meeting.

He termed the movement of Kashmiris as a movement of freedom and said Pakistan would continue to extend moral, political and diplomatic support to Kashmiris in their “just struggle for the right to self determination.”

And Pakistan cabinet decided to observe 19 July as Black Day to register its concern.

Even the hanging of  Indian Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, decidedly a more prominent Kashmiri personality, evoked less strident comments from Pakistan President Asif Zardari. He said "the abuse of the judicial process has further aggravated and angered the people of Kashmir."

The protest against Guru’s death sentence saw communists coming out in support. The Harkatul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI), even exploded a bomb on 7 July 2011 outside Delhi High court killing 17 people.

Then why Pakistan decided to raise all the heat and dust over Wani's killing? 

The major internal factor encouraging Pakistan is Jammu and Kashmir's unnatural ruling coalition of PDP and BJP formed to keep out Omar Abdulla's National Congress and Congress from power.

With vague clichés for goals it has been meandering from crisis to crisis, small and big.

The chief minister Mehbooba Mufti never seemed comfortable with the alliance. This was visible after her father Mufti Mohammed Sayeed died in harness.

She took too long to cogitate before deciding to continue with the alliance, showing lack of confidence in her own political skills. Her father a past master in politics deftly cobbled up the alliance with BJP.

Perhaps the dissonance between the partners is showing up in their inability to take decisive action when separatist elements egged on by Pakistan take advantage of popular protests to escalate them into crisis situations.

The Chief Minister faced the first major crisis at the National Institute of Technology (NIT) at Srinagar when non Kashmiri students objected to semi-final of the T20 World cup in April 2016.

The non locals wanted the NIT to be relocated when Kashmiris objected to the hoisting of national flag. It became a confrontation Pakistan flag waving and calls "Bharat Mata ki Jai" versus "Hum kya chahte, azadi" renting the air.  Police were called in and they lathi charged the non-Kashmiri group.

The state government looked upon helplessly as a local incident was blown up into a national and international one, till New Delhi intervened.

Two weeks later, when rumours of an army man molesting a school girl provoked a mob of 500 protestors to surround the army post at Handwara Chowk threatening to burn it down.

Though the girl denied such an incident took place and video coverage confirmed it, the state government meekly gave in to the mob’s demand and asked the army to shift the post. The girl later gave a statement before the DM that it was local youth who molested her!

And an army post that denied free passage to infiltrators from Pakistan for decades was given up.

And now the handling of the Burhan Wani episode by Mehbooba Mufti government has provided the meat for Pakistan to appear as the saviour of Kashmiris!

Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba's predecessor, perhaps in a moment of contrition over a similar but bigger crisis he faced in 2010 gave some soul searching advice to the  chief minister.

 When he was the chief minister 116 young protestors were shot dead in the summer of 2010 that caused his defeat in 2014.

He said "Mehbooba Mufti has made the same mistake as me. I went into a shell and she has also withdrawn into a shell. The first 24-48 hours are crucial. That is when people need see and hear you.

"She should have at least come on television and appealed for calm but she seems to have retreated into a shell when she was needed to be seen and heard."

It seems Pakistan is preparing to go for the jugular as weak governance and political indecisiveness seem to prevail in Jammu and Kashmir.

We can expect more crises situations in the coming days in the state. I am not too confident the mismatched pair ruling the state will do any better as the Centre also seems to equally inept in handling crisis.

But there should be no illusions about Pakistan’s interest in Kashmir issue.

For India the only outstanding issue is to reunite the two halves of Kashmir severed by Pakistan.

But not for Pakistan; there it's different strokes for different folks.

All the Black Day shindig in Pakistan and Nawaz Sahib sporting a long face over the “martyrdom”of  Kashmiris should not obfuscate the question: does Pakistan really want freedom for Kashmir?

The litany Pakistan regularly sets on implementing the UN resolution on Kashmir and carrying out a plebiscite. But it is only for the people of the state to choose between India and Pakistan. It was not for the “freedom” of Kashmir. There is no third choice.

In spite of this, “Azadi” (freedom) is the chant of Pakistan flag-waving mobs. Can there be greater dishonesty in protest?

Forget about India, will Pakistan ever concede freedom to the part of Kashmir it controls?

Never; not even as a ploy to gain moral authority to force India to follow suit for creating a unified, independent Kashmir State. Because, it is not in its agenda.

Pakistan's problems with Kashmir are much more than its heart bleeding for Kashmiris.

For Pakistan army it is a war of thousand cuts to bleed India - it doesn't matter if Kashmiris also bleed in the process - to avenge its decisive defeat in the 1971 War against Indian army.

For Pakistan politicians, Kashmir is rallying call to enrich their vote banks.

For elected governments, it is an opioid to distract the masses from myriad problems of Pakistan. 

For the masses who dreamt of Pakistan as a pan-Islamic nation carved out of South Asia, Kashmir is a reminder of the failed dream. This is more so after East Pakistan cut loose to become Bangladesh, aided by Indians.

So why would Pakistan ever want “aman” (peace) in Kashmir?

Even if you give Kashmir on a platter to Pakistan, it will continue with its unfinished agenda, at least till the army calls the shot on how the country deals with India.

But whatever be the situation or conflict, ultimately it is the Kashmiri people who bear the brunt.

As a nation we simply cannot afford such a state of affairs.

Finding an acceptable solution is going to be difficult in Kashmir; perhaps the time has come for Prime Minister Modi to get into the act.

He needs to bring all his political and strategic acumen, to think out of the box and dirty his hands, to work it out.

#Burhan Wani,  #Narendra Modi,  #Pakistan,  #Kashmir

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/kashmir-pakistan-nawaz-sharif-burhan-wani-narendra-modi-huji-hizbul-mujahideen/story/1/11832.html

Will the next Islamic terror attack push France to the brink of civil war?

Will the next Islamic terror attack push France to the brink of  civil war?

There are home truths about the churning within the Islamic State after losing territory in Iraq and Syria

POLITICS | 4-minute read | 15-07-2016

COLONEL  R HARIHARAN @colhari2

I am convinced that they [Islamic-backed terrorists] will evolve to the stage of car bombs and explosive devices, that through this they will ramp up their capabilities.” – Patrick Calvar, head of DGSI, France’s domestic security agency, on May 24, 2016.

The forecast of the security chief with more than two decades of experience, given at a closed door hearing of the French parliament came true two months later with deadly results on 14 July 2016.

A truck loaded with weapons and explosives ploughed through crowds celebrating the Bastille Day in the beautiful Promenade de Anglais in Nice, the coastal holiday town killing at least 84 people including many children and injuring 100 others, 18 of whom are in critical condition.

The 19-ton truck travelled two kilometers before a terrorist got down and began shooting and kept at it till he was shot dead.

Papers recovered from the vehicle identified the attacker as a 3-year old Tunisian.

The French media that carried Calvar’s grim warnings on the future of Islamic terror threat had quoted him as saying:

“We are in the brink of a civil war.

“This confrontation, I think it’s going to happen,” he said.

“One or two more terrorist attacks and it will start. It is therefore our duty to anticipate and block any group that aims to set off fighting between communities,” the DGSI chief added.

Can France, or for that matter any other democratic  country, succeed in preventing such confrontation?

Already, anti-Muslim right wing groups are increasing their political clout with rising public support after every jihadi attack.

The far right Front National (FN) party in France led by Marine Le Pen has made spectacular gains in popularity since 2011.

The FN’s credo includes economic protectionism, zero tolerance to law and order issues and opposition to immigration. And Jihadi terrorism will now find a place in its agenda.

In the 2014 European elections Le Pen garnered 25 per cent of the votes and won several municipalities at the local elections.  In the regional elections, FN came first, securing 28 per cent of the votes.  Pollsters expect Le Pen to win the presidential elections in 2017.

Given the political compulsion to act, French  President Francois Hollande,  despite his socialist beliefs, will have to come out heavily on Islamic terrorists embedded among the population.  

And that is not going to be an easy task. According to Calvar’s estimate, there are 400-450 returnees from the Islamic State, already mixing with the population.

France is already facing a flood of refugees from Syria and Africa. Weeding out terrorists from among them is not going to be an easy task as there are limitations in carrying out background checks on them.

France already has some of the toughest laws on terrorism. And that has already made Hollande unpopular among 4.7 million Muslm population in France who face the brunt of the security agencies crack down on terrorism.

Further tightening of anti-terrorism laws will deepen the divide between communities.

Controlling the entry of terrorists at the borders is not an easy task even for France with its sophisticated security apparatus.

Mohammad Abrini,who was one of the three terror suspects arrested by Belgian police after the Brussels attack, had this to say about border controls:

“You know an international arrest warrant, to be sought by the police doesn’t change anything. I passed everyday in front of soldiers, policemen.  Not with a covered face, but with a cap.

“Security at the borders can never protect anyone. It’s just politicians who want to delude the people that they protect them, but there is usually no real security. It has never been real,” Abrini concluded forthrightly.   

Any civil confrontation in France would have its tectonic effects on Germany which has a very high Muslim population and Scandinavian countries and Netherlands where anti-Muslim sentiments are running high.

As far as India is concerned, there are some home truths in Calvar’s analysis on the transformation taking place in the Islamic State after losing territory in Iraq and Syria.

According to Calvar, the ISIS is not solely depending upon “lone wolf” terror attacks in France like the last one that took place during the Euro 16 football tournament. It has learnt from its experiences in Paris attacks and is determined to carry out large scale sophisticated attacks.

New terrorist operating methods would challenge the already stretched French security systems.

And the Nice attack has demonstrated it. Will the next Islamic terror attack  take France further to the brink of civil war? That must be a question worrying President Hollande and his security advisers.

As far as we are concerned, is home minister Rajnath Singh going to be in a state of denial having seen the ISIS grim handiwork in Holey Artisan bakery attack in Dhaka?

Does it matter what brand the Islamic terrorist sports? They have been changing their affiliations along with the uniform they wear.

And next time they strike thy many not be sporting romantic uniforms the terrorists in Kashmir usually wear in videos running viral in social media sites. And that does not make them less deadly.

#Islamic terror  #Nice attack

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/nice-attack-islamic-terror-bastille-day-promenade-de-anglais/story/1/11770.html

Sheikh Hasina overlooked terror festering in Bangladesh’s backyard

Sheikh Hasina overlooked terror festering in Bangladesh’s backyard

Rather than waiting for political empathy in fighting jihadi terrorism, the PM will have to urgently rewrite her counter-terrorism template

POLITICS | Long-form | 12-07-2016

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2

It is heartless to say the slaughter of 23 people, mostly foreigners, in a bakery in Dhaka’s posh suburb of Gulshan few days before the end of the holy month of Ramadan was waiting to happen. But that is really the case.

So “What next” would be a logical question easily asked than answered.

The inability of Sheikh Hasina’s government to bring to book those who carried out the lone wolf attacks to kill 30 people including secularists, foreigners and many non Muslims during the last 15 months probably encouraged the Jihadi elements to mount the concerted Dhaka attack.

But there are bigger political reasons hobbling Bangladesh war against Jihadi terrorism.

Khaleda Zia’s machinations

Prime Minister Hasina saw them merely as violent attempts to destabilize her rule by Begum Khaleda Zia-led opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its fundamentalist coalition partner Jamaat-e-Islami  (JeI), than as globally manifesting  jihadi extremist activity.

Obviously, PM Hasina’s long political struggle to overcome the BNP-JeI opposition that had been hounding her and the Awami League (AL) after her father Mujibur Rahman’s assassination in 1975 continues to prevent her from taking a dispassionate look at the terrorist situation.

As a result the Bangladesh government had been busying trying to read the fine print to identify the involvement of BNP and JeI elements in the sporadic killings for nearly two years.

In this process, important indicators of the Islamic State’s efforts to step up their activities in South Asia, and in particular Bangladesh, seem to have been missed out.

This is understandable as it was Major General Ziaur Rahman, husband of Begum Khaleda, who usurped power in a military coup taking advantage of the turbulence after Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and his family were assassinated in 1975.

It was Zia who condoned the killers of Mujibur Rahman and soft pedalled the JeI leaders’ collusion with the Pak army in the massacre of thousands of Bengali intellectuals and professionals, in order to gain their support.

It was also Zia, who founded the BNP to legitimize his power and started hobnobbing with fundamentalist elements to rewrite the secular credentials of the country which had been an article of faith of AL.

Islamic extremism of BNP, JeI and JMB

 By and large Bangladesh Muslims are Sufis with a moderate world view of their religion. However, thanks to Saudi Arabian support, Wahabism with its fundamentalist discourse has been making steady inroads into the country.

After Zia’s assassination, General HM Ershad took over power till he was forced to hold democratic elections. Begum Khaleda Zia led the BNP-JeI coalition came to power. Their rule enabled Taliban-loving fundamentalist groups like the JeI and Nizam-e-Islami (NeI) to get entrenched in Bangladesh body politics.

It was also the period that saw heightened activity of the Al Qaeda affiliate Harkat-ul Jihad al Islami (HUJI) which established its tentacles in Bangladesh. HUJI was the prime suspect in a plot to assassinate PM Sheikh Hasina in 2000 after she came to power. HUJI was also believed to have been involved in a number of bombings carried out in 2005 that led to its ban.

The BNP-JeI coalition chose to ignore the rise of the Jamatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) fundamentalist extremists led by ‘Bangla Bhai’ Siddiqul Islam that terrorised the AL and the nation.

Even Sheikh Hasina was not spared of their wrath; according to the AL she has survived 19 attempts on her life by various opposition groups including fundamentalist parties, JMB and the BNP.

The JMB, which had Taliban links, grew bold enough to explode 500 small bombs in a span of half an hour in 50 towns in 63 of the 65 districts across the country on 17 August 2005! This led to the banning and arrest of JMB leaders and cadres.

After Bangla Bhai and six other JMB leaders were apprehended and executed in March 2007, the JMB was dormant for some time.

Their morale was shattered when PM Hasina during her second tenure prosecuted 53 leaders largely from JeI but also from ML, NeI, BNP and Jatiyo Party for war crimes against Bangladesh.

This deprived Jihadi extremists the political patronage they had enjoyed which was vital for their survival.

Encroachment from Al Qaeda and the ISIS

The decision of the Al Qaeda and the Islamic State to expand their tentacles into South Asia in 2014 found a fertile ground in Bangladesh. It provided rallying points for the JMB and other Jihadi outfits like the Al Qaeda-inspired machete-wielding Ansar ul Bangla Team (ABT) to step up their activity.

In fact, JMB elements became assertive enough to plan an abortive attack on the Bangladesh Prime Minister’s motorcade last March. 

Now almost all parties have in their ranks fundamentalist elements with Salafist beliefs, which may not support Jihadi terrorism, but favour in its other articles of faith.

PM Hasina has been waging an ambivalent struggle to gain the support of these conservative sections of society as the BNP and JeI have become increasingly dependent upon their support.

This is probably the reason for the government to allow some leeway for fundamentalist propaganda that provides the religious idiom for Jihadi extremism.

Perhaps this was also the reason for the Bangladesh government to allow Salafist preachers like Dr Zakir Naik to hold religious discourse in the country, although it probably inspired terrorists as shown in the Dhaka bakery killings.

There are other factors too which make Hasina’s fight against Jihadi terrorism more difficult.

Exposure to Wahabism/Salafism

Bangladesh has over two million expatriate Muslims working in Gulf countries with over 1.2 million living in Saudi Arabia alone. With constant exposure to conservative life styles and beliefs they are a highly vulnerable source of recruits for Jihadi terror outfits.

The IS has already mastered the idiom of attracting educated and tech-savvy Muslims. These young converts to terrorism are invigorating Bangladesh Islamic extremism. And the IS is providing them guidance and global exposure.

Bangladesh has a volatile political culture with the involvement of both left-wing and fundamentalist extremism in politics. Major parties including the AL, BNP and JeI have their own highly motivated student groups who are used as tools for political activism that often ends in fisticuffs or even murders. 

With Bangladesh’s political discourse providing space for violent means to settle scores, it is not going to be easy for PM Hasina to separate political extremism from jihadi extremism as they are seamlessly interwoven.

The Dhaka Bakery slaughter has underlined the urgency for PM Hasina to have a minimum level of political concurrence with other parties in handling terrorism.

However, such a proposition is unlikely to make headway in the near term, given the political blood feuds poised to move into third generation.

Must rewrite counter-terrorism template

So rather than waiting for political empathy in fighting Jihadi terrorism, the PM will have to urgently rewrite her counter-terrorism template.

Introduction of systemic improvements in the employment of counter-terrorism forces is probably on the cards.  This would include police, paramilitary outfits specializing in fighting extremists like the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and army commando groups.

Modern investigative and surveillance tools need to be used. And most importantly real time exchange of intelligence among various agencies to enable better coordination of their actions has to become part of the standard operative procedure.

Real time international cooperation

PM Hasina will have to further strengthen networking on counter terrorism cooperation with India and the US who are also coming together to scale up such cooperation between them.

India-Bangladesh border despite all the goodwill prevailing between the two countries remains porous.

It will remain so given the common roots and contiguity of identity among people living on both sides of the border. That is one of the reasons extremists from both countries are able to find sanctuaries across the border.

It will be prudent for both the countries to make it extremely difficult for the extremists from one country to seek sanctuaries in the other.

This would involve sharing of data bases on criminal and extremist elements operating between two countries on a real time basis. 

With sizeable Bangladesh immigrant population living along the border areas of Assam and West Bengal, India has proved to be vulnerable to infiltration by Jihadi extremists for nearly two decades.

India has huge stake

Bangladesh is equally vulnerable to Jihadi extremists operating from Indian sanctuaries. The NIA’s follow up investigations in 2 October 2014 Bardhman blasts in West Bengal has revealed that Enamul Mollah, the suspected IS mastermind in India was an active member of JMB.

Among his followers, 20 IS suspects have been arrested; ten other absconding suspects are believed to be in Bangladesh.

In Assam, in April 2016 the Imam of Amguri masjid in Chirang district has been arrested for motivating young men to join JMB. Police have arrested 29 members of an extended module of JMB in the same district.

But as far as India is concerned, the moot question is how much India can help Begum Hasina fight Jihadi terrorism?

If she fails, its fall out will not only affect Bangladesh but India as well, particularly the highly militancy-prone northeast region.

India will have to do the extra mile and enroll Mamta Banerjee’s support to ensure West Bengal fully cooperates in weeding out Bangladeshi extremist elements holed up in the country. The same applies to Assam where a BJP government is in power.

#Bangladesh, #Sheikh Hasina, #Dhaka attack

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO.

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/dhaka-attack-sheikh-hasina-bangladesh-al-qaeda-wahabism-sufi-india-awami-league-khaleda-zia/story/1/11703.html

Modi and Jinping shouldn’t let their egos come in the way of India-China ties

Modi and Jinping shouldn’t let their egos come in the way of India-China ties

We can expect both the leaders to keep this in mind in chartering their course.

POLITICS | Long-form |05-07-2016

Col R HARIHARAN @colhari2

Is China becoming uneasy about India’s assertive international posture? 

It would seem so, if we take a holistic view of how China has been viewing India’s international initiatives since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power.

Condescending, conceited, contemptuous or confused….these words may well describe China’s web journal Global Times’  editorial choice of words like smug, self-centred and self-righteous to describe the conduct of India and its media during the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) plenary meeting in Seoul recently.

To be honest, at times many Indians also feel their government and media are smug, self-centred and self-righteous. Calling names is no big deal for Indians;  someone or other does it all the time against the government, at times even abusively.

The national and international electronic and print media revel in publicizing it to increase their audience count.

The Right to Information Act often helps them in this process by providing access to government’s decision making process to dig up the dirt.   

But these luxuries are denied to Chinese citizens; they could be arrested and jailed for expressing caustic views on the government; the same fate awaits media pundits who voice their dissent.  

So joining a slanging match with the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China (CPC) would be pointless exercise.

Rant, or official slant?

However, dismissing the op-ed as a rant would be missing the point that China’s state-controlled media invariably reflect CPC’s views unofficially.  

At the face of it the editorial on NSG may not deserve the huge attention the Indian media gave it. But if read in the context of President Xi Jinping’s address at the CPC’s 95^th anniversary on July 1, 2016, it has a different connotation.

Xi addressing a rally said China will actively participate in the building of global governance system and strive to contribute Chinese wisdom to the improvement of global governance. “It is for the people of all countries to decide through consultations what international order and global governance system can benefit the world and people of all nations.”

Some questions need to be answered to understand the Chinese mind about India’s assertive foreign policy dispensation.

Why did Global Times write the peevish piece when China had actually succeeded in blocking India’s entry into the NSG? 

From the GT editorial’s defensive title - “Delhi’s NSG bid upset by rules, not Beijing,” China appears to have been taken by surprise when most of the NSG member-nations supported India’s application even though it had not signed the NPT “as required by rules.”

No wonder, Beijing has pulled up Wang Qunits, its chief negotiator and director general of the arms control division, for failing to drum up enough support for China’ stand against India’s entry.

A few years ago people would have laughed at the idea of China, the biggest nuclear proliferator that helped Pakistan and North Korea clandestinely to develop their nuclear weapons, quoting “rules” of international conduct at the NSG.

But now that China is a global economic power, it probably feels it can quote “rules” to other nations just as the US and Soviet Union did when it suited them in the Cold War days. 

Even as China talks of “rules” of conduct to India, it is testing the validity of UNCLOS “rules” in South China Sea by increasingly flexing its naval muscles to support its claim to the whole of the South China Sea and the illegal domain it has created in reclaimed land in the sea.

China is also probably irritated at the US for helping India to become a full member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), when its own application to join this group is yet to be accepted.

As MTCR member India can now access advanced missile technology which would enable it to develop the nuclear triad faster.  No wonder, the op-ed chides international community “spoiling” India.

Is India’s assertive foreign policy intruding into China’s power projection in South, Central and West Asia and Indian Ocean a reason for its concern?

With the signing of the Chabahar port and communication project agreement with Iran and Afghanistan, India is poised to improve its land and rail access to Central Asia. President Xi’s ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) project has already improved region’s connectivity to China.

India also has recently joined the Ashagabat agreement to enhance the scope of the Chabahar trilateral project in improving connectivity between Central Asia and Persian Gulf.  

The Ashagabat agreement involving India, Oman, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan provides for creating an international transport and transit corridor facilitating transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.

By becoming a member of this agreement India would be able to utilize the existing transport and transit corridor to increase its trade and commercial interaction with Eurasian region.

It would also synchronise with India’s efforts to implement the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) – a ship, rail and road route for moving freight between India, Russia, Iran, Europe and Central Asia- already underway.

Though these are not new initiatives, after the sanctions on Iran were lifted India has activated them now. So China may see India’s entry into the region more in competitive than strategic terms.

However, they do lessen the incentive for India to join the OBOR.

Recently India became a member of  the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the Summit meeting in Ufa in Kazakhstan.

While the Chinese foreign minister had welcomed India and Pakistan joining the largely Central Asian grouping, a Chinese commentator Zhang Wenwei struck a note of caution in an opinion piece in the Global Times on June 27, 2016.

He said: “the inclusion of India and Pakistan may bring into the SCO their long-existing disputes over territorial and religious issues and disturb the organization’s efforts to carry out the principle [of consultation-based consensus].”

This would indicate a latent concern in Chinese minds on the membership of India and Pakistan diluting the SCO’s focus on Central Asia.

Is China getting nervous at the increasing bonhomie between India and the US and its allies who are providing it space in their strategic discourse, adding to its military capability?

India has successfully leveraged its strategic autonomy to benefit from the  US’ strategic shift of focus from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific to benefit from its relations with the US. The US has also reciprocated this.

As a result President Obama and Prime Minister Modi have embarked upon giving form and content to the US-India defence cooperation agreement which was in a limbo for nearly a decade.  

In April 2016, the two countries have announced their in-principle agreement to conclude a Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA) one of the foundation three agreements for greater defence cooperation.

The other two are Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).

Both countries have also agreed to set up a new bilateral Maritime Security Dialogue between the officials of respective defence and foreign ministries to improve their cooperation.

These agreements would help the Indian armed forces, particularly the navy, to operate far from home to protect India’s increasing global interests and assets.  

The US has also become number one defence supplier to India.

PM Modi in his latest visit to Washington has further firmed up strategic defence partnership with the US. President Obama supported not only India’s application for NSG membership but also reaffirmed the US support for India’s early membership of two other nuclear clubs: the Australia Group and Wassenaar Arrangement related to nuclear proliferation. 

The US commitment to India was evident when US Under Secretary for Political Affairs Tom Shannon visited New Delhi after India failed to gain entry into the NSG.

Shannon said the US was “committed to having India join the NSG. We believe that through the kind of work we have done, civil nuclear agreement, the way India conducted itself, it is worthy of this.”

In an obvious reference to China’s opposition to India’s entry he added “We understand that in a consensus-based organization, once country can break consensus. But in order to do so, it must be accountable, not isolated.”

By all indications India-US strategic cooperation is poised to become deeper and multi-dimensional in the coming years.

Inevitably, China would become increasingly uncomfortable with the growth of India-US strategic relationship, given the mutual sensitivity of relations between the two giant neighbours.

 However, at present both India and China seem to understand each others’ strategic compulsions; this has helped them to be pragmatic, rather than emotional, in their relations. 

China has strengthened its political, strategic and economic relations with Pakistan with the signing of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement that envisages Chinese investment of over $40 billion in the next ten years. 

As the CPEC progresses China’s potential to become an intrusive influence in the confrontational relationship between India and Pakistan will increase. This could disturb the delicately balanced India-China relations more than the effect of India-US strategic convergence.  

Is China is getting ready to bracket India with Japan and the United States in its strategic horizon?

Use of acerbic language in Chinese editorials is normally reserved for Japan and less frequently for the US when “provocations” become intimidating.  Probably in China’s eyes India is yet to reach the stature of a big power like Japan or the US to be bracketed with them.

But apart from growing Indo-US strategic cooperation, some of India’s activities in South China Sea and its proximity have deepened China’s concerns about India.

These include India-US-Japan navies conducting the Malabar exercise off the Japanese coast, though this was not the first time Indian navy had conducted the exercise in the same vicinity.

But the strategic context now has changed with the increase in US-China confrontation in the South China Sea. The US and Chinese military aircraft are flying too close for comfort and US warships are sailing suspiciously close to Chinese installations in disputed islets.

India’s decision to sell BrahMos cruise missiles to Vietnam could also be interpreted as an affront by China, though China has been the main source of arming India’s bête noir Pakistan.

To summarise, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is articulating his Indian dream through policy initiatives just as President Xi Jinping is doing to turn the Chinese dream a reality.

As both the leaders are dogged and their visions are grandiose, it is inevitable their interests would intrude into each other’s domain. This could test the two leaders’ ability to handle criticalities in their relationship. We can expect both the leaders to keep this mind in chartering their course.

#Narendra Modi, #Xi Jinping, #NSG, #India-China Ties

Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO.in

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/narendra-modi-xi-jinping-china-foreign-policy-nsg-mtcr-obor-chabahar-cpec/story/1/11561.html