Modi and Jinping shouldn’t let their egos come in the way of India-China ties
We can expect both the leaders to keep this in
mind in chartering their course.
POLITICS | Long-form |05-07-2016
Col R HARIHARAN @colhari2
Is China becoming uneasy about
India’s assertive international posture?
It would seem so, if we take a
holistic view of how China has been viewing India’s international initiatives
since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power.
Condescending, conceited, contemptuous
or confused….these words may well describe China’s web journal Global Times’
editorial choice of words like smug,
self-centred and self-righteous to describe the conduct of India and its media
during the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) plenary meeting in Seoul recently.
To be honest, at times many
Indians also feel their government and media are smug, self-centred and
self-righteous. Calling names is no big deal for Indians; someone or other does it all the time against
the government, at times even abusively.
The national and international
electronic and print media revel in publicizing it to increase their audience
count.
The Right to Information Act often
helps them in this process by providing access to government’s decision making
process to dig up the dirt.
But these luxuries are denied
to Chinese citizens; they could be arrested and jailed for expressing caustic
views on the government; the same fate awaits media pundits who voice their
dissent.
So joining a slanging match
with the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China (CPC) would be pointless
exercise.
Rant, or official slant?
However, dismissing the op-ed
as a rant would be missing the point that China’s state-controlled media
invariably reflect CPC’s views unofficially.
At the face of it the editorial
on NSG may not deserve the huge attention the Indian media gave it. But if read
in the context of President Xi Jinping’s address at the CPC’s 95th
anniversary on July 1, 2016, it has a different connotation.
Xi addressing a rally said China
will actively participate in the building of global governance system and
strive to contribute Chinese wisdom to the improvement of global governance. “It
is for the people of all countries to decide through consultations what
international order and global governance system can benefit the world and
people of all nations.”
Some questions need to be
answered to understand the Chinese mind about India’s assertive foreign policy
dispensation.
Why did Global Times write the
peevish piece when China had actually succeeded in blocking India’s entry into
the NSG?
From the GT editorial’s
defensive title - “Delhi’s
NSG bid upset by rules, not Beijing,” China appears to have been taken by surprise
when most of the NSG member-nations supported India’s application even though
it had not signed the NPT “as required by rules.”
No wonder, Beijing has pulled
up Wang Qunits, its chief negotiator and director general of the arms control
division, for failing to drum up enough support for China’ stand against
India’s entry.
A few years ago people would
have laughed at the idea of China, the biggest nuclear proliferator that helped
Pakistan and North Korea clandestinely to develop their nuclear weapons, quoting
“rules” of international conduct at the NSG.
But now that China is a global
economic power, it probably feels it can quote “rules” to other nations just as
the US and Soviet Union did when it suited them in the Cold War days.
Even as China talks of “rules”
of conduct to India, it is testing the validity of UNCLOS “rules” in South
China Sea by increasingly flexing its naval muscles to support its claim to the
whole of the South China Sea and the illegal domain it has created in reclaimed
land in the sea.
China is also probably
irritated at the US for helping India to become a full member of the Missile
Technology Control Regime (MTCR), when its own application to join this group
is yet to be accepted.
As MTCR member India can now access
advanced missile technology which would enable it to develop the nuclear triad
faster. No wonder, the op-ed chides
international community “spoiling” India.
Is India’s assertive foreign
policy intruding into China’s power projection in South, Central and West Asia
and Indian Ocean a reason for its concern?
With the signing of the
Chabahar port and communication project agreement with Iran and Afghanistan,
India is poised to improve its land and rail access to Central Asia. President
Xi’s ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) project has already improved region’s
connectivity to China.
India also has recently joined
the Ashagabat agreement to enhance the scope of the Chabahar trilateral project
in improving connectivity between Central Asia and Persian Gulf.
The Ashagabat agreement
involving India, Oman, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan provides
for creating an international transport and transit corridor facilitating
transportation of goods between Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.
By becoming a
member of this agreement India would be able to utilize the existing transport
and transit corridor to increase its trade and commercial interaction with
Eurasian region.
It would also
synchronise with India’s efforts to implement the International North South
Transport Corridor (INSTC) – a ship, rail and road route for moving freight
between India, Russia, Iran, Europe and Central Asia- already underway.
Though these are
not new initiatives, after the sanctions on Iran were lifted India has activated
them now. So China may see India’s entry into the region more in competitive
than strategic terms.
However, they do
lessen the incentive for India to join the OBOR.
Recently India became
a member of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO) at the Summit meeting in Ufa in Kazakhstan.
While the Chinese
foreign minister had welcomed India and Pakistan joining the largely Central
Asian grouping, a Chinese commentator Zhang Wenwei struck a note of caution in
an opinion piece
in the Global Times on June 27, 2016.
He said: “the
inclusion of India and Pakistan may bring into the SCO their long-existing
disputes over territorial and religious issues and disturb the organization’s
efforts to carry out the principle [of consultation-based consensus].”
This would
indicate a latent concern in Chinese minds on the membership of India and
Pakistan diluting the SCO’s focus on Central Asia.
Is China getting nervous at the
increasing bonhomie between India and the US and its allies who are providing it
space in their strategic discourse, adding to its military capability?
India has successfully
leveraged its strategic autonomy to benefit from the US’ strategic shift of focus from the Atlantic
to the Indo-Pacific to benefit from its relations with the US. The US has also
reciprocated this.
As a result President Obama and
Prime Minister Modi have embarked upon giving form and content to the US-India
defence cooperation agreement which was in a limbo for nearly a decade.
In April 2016, the two
countries have announced their in-principle agreement to conclude a Logistics
Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA) one of the foundation three agreements
for greater defence cooperation.
The other two are Communications
and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and Basic Exchange
and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).
Both countries have also agreed
to set up a new bilateral Maritime Security Dialogue between the officials of
respective defence and foreign ministries to improve their cooperation.
These agreements would help the
Indian armed forces, particularly the navy, to operate far from home to protect
India’s increasing global interests and assets.
The US has also become number
one defence supplier to India.
PM Modi in his latest visit to
Washington has further firmed up strategic defence partnership with the US.
President Obama supported not only India’s application for NSG membership but
also reaffirmed the US support for India’s early membership of two other
nuclear clubs: the Australia Group and Wassenaar Arrangement related to nuclear
proliferation.
The US commitment to India was
evident when US Under Secretary for Political Affairs Tom Shannon visited New
Delhi after India failed to gain entry into the NSG.
Shannon said the US was “committed
to having India join the NSG. We believe that through the kind of work we have
done, civil nuclear agreement, the way India conducted itself, it is worthy of
this.”
In an obvious reference to
China’s opposition to India’s entry he added “We understand that in a
consensus-based organization, once country can break consensus. But in order to
do so, it must be accountable, not isolated.”
By all indications India-US
strategic cooperation is poised to become deeper and multi-dimensional in the
coming years.
Inevitably, China would become
increasingly uncomfortable with the growth of India-US strategic relationship,
given the mutual sensitivity of relations between the two giant neighbours.
However, at present both India and China seem
to understand each others’ strategic compulsions; this has helped them to be
pragmatic, rather than emotional, in their relations.
China has strengthened its
political, strategic and economic relations with Pakistan with the signing of
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement that envisages Chinese
investment of over $40 billion in the next ten years.
As the CPEC progresses China’s
potential to become an intrusive influence in the confrontational relationship
between India and Pakistan will increase. This could disturb the delicately
balanced India-China relations more than the effect of India-US strategic
convergence.
Is China is getting ready to
bracket India with Japan and the United States in its strategic horizon?
Use of acerbic language in Chinese
editorials is normally reserved for Japan and less frequently for the US when
“provocations” become intimidating. Probably
in China’s eyes India is yet to reach the stature of a big power like Japan or
the US to be bracketed with them.
But apart from growing Indo-US
strategic cooperation, some of India’s activities in South China Sea and its
proximity have deepened China’s concerns about India.
These include India-US-Japan
navies conducting the Malabar exercise off the Japanese coast, though this was
not the first time Indian navy had conducted the exercise in the same vicinity.
But the strategic context now
has changed with the increase in US-China confrontation in the South China Sea.
The US and Chinese military aircraft are flying too close for comfort and US
warships are sailing suspiciously close to Chinese installations in disputed
islets.
India’s decision to sell
BrahMos cruise missiles to Vietnam could also be interpreted as an affront by
China, though China has been the main source of arming India’s bête noir
Pakistan.
To summarise, Prime Minister Narendra
Modi is articulating his Indian dream through policy initiatives just as
President Xi Jinping is doing to turn the Chinese dream a reality.
As both the leaders are dogged
and their visions are grandiose, it is inevitable their interests would intrude
into each other’s domain. This could test the two leaders’ ability to handle
criticalities in their relationship. We can expect both the leaders to keep
this mind in chartering their course.
Courtesy:
India Today opinion portal DailyO.in
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