Will the next Islamic terror
attack push France to the brink of civil
war?
There are home truths about the
churning within the Islamic State after losing territory in Iraq and Syria
POLITICS | 4-minute read |
15-07-2016
COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2
I am convinced that they
[Islamic-backed terrorists] will evolve to the stage of car bombs and explosive
devices, that through this they will ramp up their capabilities.” – Patrick Calvar,
head of DGSI, France’s domestic security agency, on May 24, 2016.
The forecast of the security
chief with more than two decades of experience, given at a closed door hearing
of the French parliament came true two months later with deadly results on 14
July 2016.
A truck loaded with weapons and
explosives ploughed through crowds celebrating the Bastille Day in the
beautiful Promenade de Anglais in Nice, the coastal holiday town killing at
least 84 people including many children and injuring 100 others, 18 of whom are
in critical condition.
The 19-ton truck travelled two
kilometers before a terrorist got down and began shooting and kept at it till
he was shot dead.
Papers recovered from the
vehicle identified the attacker as a 3-year old Tunisian.
The French media that carried Calvar’s
grim warnings on the future of Islamic terror threat had quoted him as saying:
“We are in the brink of a civil
war.
“This confrontation, I think
it’s going to happen,” he said.
“One or two more terrorist
attacks and it will start. It is therefore our duty to anticipate and block any
group that aims to set off fighting between communities,” the DGSI chief added.
Can France, or for that matter
any other democratic country, succeed in
preventing such confrontation?
Already, anti-Muslim right wing
groups are increasing their political clout with rising public support after
every jihadi attack.
The far right Front National (FN)
party in France led by Marine Le Pen has made spectacular gains in popularity
since 2011.
The FN’s credo includes economic
protectionism, zero tolerance to law and order issues and opposition to
immigration. And Jihadi terrorism will now find a place in its agenda.
In the 2014 European elections
Le Pen garnered 25 per cent of the votes and won several municipalities at the
local elections. In the regional
elections, FN came first, securing 28 per cent of the votes. Pollsters expect Le Pen to win the
presidential elections in 2017.
Given the political compulsion
to act, French President Francois Hollande, despite his socialist beliefs, will have to
come out heavily on Islamic terrorists embedded among the population.
And that is not going to be an
easy task. According to Calvar’s estimate, there are 400-450 returnees from the
Islamic State, already mixing with the population.
France is already facing a
flood of refugees from Syria and Africa. Weeding out terrorists from among them
is not going to be an easy task as there are limitations in carrying out
background checks on them.
France already has some of the
toughest laws on terrorism. And that has already made Hollande unpopular among
4.7 million Muslm population in France who face the brunt of the security
agencies crack down on terrorism.
Further tightening of anti-terrorism
laws will deepen the divide between communities.
Controlling the entry of
terrorists at the borders is not an easy task even for France with its
sophisticated security apparatus.
Mohammad Abrini,who was one of
the three terror suspects arrested by Belgian police after the Brussels attack,
had this to say about border controls:
“You know an international
arrest warrant, to be sought by the police doesn’t change anything. I passed
everyday in front of soldiers, policemen.
Not with a covered face, but with a cap.
“Security at the borders can
never protect anyone. It’s just politicians who want to delude the people that
they protect them, but there is usually no real security. It has never been
real,” Abrini concluded forthrightly.
Any civil confrontation in
France would have its tectonic effects on Germany which has a very high Muslim
population and Scandinavian countries and Netherlands where anti-Muslim sentiments
are running high.
As far as India is concerned,
there are some home truths in Calvar’s analysis on the transformation taking
place in the Islamic State after losing territory in Iraq and Syria.
According to Calvar, the ISIS
is not solely depending upon “lone wolf” terror attacks in France like the last
one that took place during the Euro 16 football tournament. It has learnt from
its experiences in Paris attacks and is determined to carry out large scale
sophisticated attacks.
New terrorist operating methods
would challenge the already stretched French security systems.
And the Nice attack has
demonstrated it. Will the next Islamic terror attack take France further to the brink of civil war?
That must be a question worrying President Hollande and his security advisers.
As far as we are concerned, is
home minister Rajnath Singh going to be in a state of denial having seen the
ISIS grim handiwork in Holey Artisan bakery attack in Dhaka?
Does it matter what brand the
Islamic terrorist sports? They have been changing their affiliations along with
the uniform they wear.
And next time they strike thy
many not be sporting romantic uniforms the terrorists in Kashmir usually wear
in videos running viral in social media sites. And that does not make them less
deadly.
Courtesy: India Today opinion portal DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/nice-attack-islamic-terror-bastille-day-promenade-de-anglais/story/1/11770.html
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