With Beijing mediating between Bangladesh
and its neighbour, in allowing the return of Muslim refugees back to Rakhine
state, is China assuming a bigger role in Myanmar in keeping with its image as
a global power?
By Colonel R Hariharan | Global trends | Rohingya crisis |
Courtesy: India Legal, 11 December 2017 www.indialegallive.com
Courtesy: India Legal, 11 December 2017 www.indialegallive.com
The first-ever visit of Pope Francis to
Myanmar to convey a message of peace and conciliation to the nation wracked by
ethnic confrontation is perhaps the latest among international efforts to
defuse the Rohingya crisis. This year, the Pontiff had appealed twice to
Myanmar government to end the campaign of ethnic cleansing of Rohingya minority
from his balcony overlooking the St Peter’s square in Rome. However, his
failure to mention Rohingyas in his meeting with Myanmar’s de facto leader Aung
San Suu Kyi at Naypyidaw is significant. Perhaps, the fear that the use of R
word would trigger anti-Christian backlash, rather than diplomatic nicety,
prevented the Prince of Rome from specifically referring to Rohingya.
Myanmar’s allergy to the ‘R’ word is
perhaps the essence of Rohingya problem. The international community alarmed
after the number of Rohingya fleeing Myanmar swelled to 620,000 had taken a
number of initiatives. These cover a wide range of issues. The UN-supported
international humanitarian conference last month raised $344 million from
donors to support aid efforts for the Rohingya refugees in Myanmar. India
rushed hundred tons of food and clothing under Operation Insaniyat to enable
Bangladesh to help the refugees and Sikh humanitarian organisations provided
hands-on help. The UN Security Council issued a statement strongly condemning
the violence that had caused Rohingya to flee while the US strongly condemned
the Myanmar military excesses and threatened to slap additional sanctions upon
military leaders.
CHINESE HAND
Among such interventions, China can claim
credit for getting Bangladesh and Myanmar to sign an agreement on November 23,
to allow the return of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslim refugees back
to their homes in Rakhine state in Myanmar. The Chinese peace plan draws upon
the detailed recommendations of Kofi Annan Commission (KFC) report on the
Rohingya issue, submitted to Myanmar government in September 2017.
According
to Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, the first phase of the three-phase plan
was “to effect a ceasefire on the ground, to return to stability and order, so
the people can enjoy peace and no longer be forced to flee.” The second and
third phases would facilitate an orderly return of those who have fled to
Bangladesh and “work toward a long term solution on poverty alleviation” to
resolve the Rohingya crisis in the long term.
According to an AFP report, since the
signing of the agreement a week ago, more than 3000 refugees have crossed over
to Bangladesh. This would indicate that Myanmar has not adhered to the first
phase of the plan and announced a ceasefire on the ground in Rakhine State and
take steps to halt the out flow of refugees to restore normalcy in Rakhine
State. China will be able to provide economic assistance to Rakhine State as
part of the long solution only after conditions for safe return of the refugees
are created.
ARMY STAND
But this is more easily said than done,
because Myanmar armed forces chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who controls
ministries of border affairs, home and defence, has continued to maintain that
the Rohingya problem was created by British colonialists. “They [Rohingya] are
not the natives and the records prove that they were not even called Rohingya
but just Bengalis” brought into Myanmar by the British during the colonial
period.
He has forcefully denied the allegations
of army atrocities committed against Rohingya, though UN rights bodies and
international NGOs like the Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have
produced detailed reports on a host of violations committed by the army that triggered
Rohingya exodus. The army’s internal investigation in November 2017 has absolved
it of all wrongdoing during the Rakhine operations.
The army chief’s views are shared by many
of the Buddhist majority, who have come out in support of the army operations
in Rakhine state. On November 19, a group of “military supporters” organized an
event in which thousands of people from adjacent regions gathered in Mandalay
to show their solidarity with the military and “good” civil servants. They
chanted slogans in support of General Min Aung Hlaing and the military, working
towards the goal of “protecting Myanmar’s sovereignty and unity.” They also
read out a message from the ultra-nationalist monk Wirathu, who had gained
notoriety for anti-Muslim activism.
Perhaps Aung San Suu Kyi’s muted and
cautious response to the Rohingya crisis is due to public opinion in support of
the military. Aung San Suu Kyi’s welcome
speech at the inauguration of the Asia-Europe Foreign Ministers Conference at
Naypyidaw on November 21 was carefully worded avoiding any reference to the
Rohingya exodus. She said conflicts around the world gave rise to new threats
and emergencies, citing how illegal immigration spread “terrorism and violent
extremism, social disharmony and even the threat of a nuclear war.”
PEACE PLAN
Though China has suggested the three-point
plan to defuse the Rohingya crisis, it is significant that it has not condemned
the human rights abuses committed against them. Its approach is carefully
calibrated to retain its involvement in the critical issue without irking
Myanmar and Bangladesh, which are astride China’s strategic access to South
Asia.
Usually, China prides itself in not
interfering in the internal affairs of other countries. By assuming the role of
a mediator between Bangladesh and Myanmar, is China assuming a bigger role in
keeping with its strength as a global power? Is it in response to the strategic
dynamics of the region? Answers to both questions are in the affirmative.
A second aspect is China filling the space
created by the US failure to suggest a suitable plan to enable its protégé Aung
San Suu Kyi to handle the Rohingya crisis more effectively. The US Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson, who vacillated upon the issue during his visit to Myanmar earlier
in the month, condemned ethnic cleansing of Rohingya in a strong statement on
November 22. He said “After careful and
through analysis of available facts, it is clear that the situation in Northern
Rakhine state constitutes ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya” and the US
supported an independent investigation into what happened in Rakhine state. He
added that the US would pursue actions including possible targeted sanctions. It
is significant that Tillerson statement was made after China had announced its
reconciliation plan.
Equally important is the failure of the ASEAN
summit held mid-November to recommend concrete actions to resolve the Rohingya
crisis. Apparently, the summit wanted to soft pedal the issue, though the UN
Secretary General Antonio Guetteres cautioned ASEAN members of the consequence
of bypassing the Rohingya issue might cause “regional instability and
radicalization.”
INDIAN DIPLOMACY
India’s stand on the Rohingya crisis had
been driven by its own strategic considerations, not dissimilar to China. Prime
Minister Narendra Modi during his recent Myanmar visit had urged all
stakeholders to find a solution that respects the country’s unity. Even as
Bangladesh and Myanmar signed an agreement to implement the Chinese peace plan,
Indian and Myanmar armies started on the first-ever counter-terrorism exercise
in India, indicating India’s strategic priority. It was yet an affirmation of India’s reluctance
to get involved in defusing a potential confrontational situation between the
two neighbours, looked upon as strategic allies.
China assuming the role of a mediator in
Myanmar is in keeping with its readiness to mediate in other confrontations in West
Asia and even in South Asia between Pakistan and India. It demonstrates China’s
desire to use its growing international influence to provide an alternative
global narrative to the West. Whether
China succeeds or not in resolving the Bangladesh-Myanmar gridlock, by taking
the initiative, President Xi Jinping is living up to his vision of China as a
global power.
The writer is a
retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, and is associated with
the Chennai Centre for China Studies and International Law and Strategic
Studies Institute.
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