After Mahinda Rajapaksa’s
fledgling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) handed out a shocking defeat to
both the UNP and the SLFP in the local government elections, the three-way
political power game has become more complex than before. A gloating Rajapaksa, past master in
political manoevuring, is demanding fresh elections after dissolving the
parliament, though he knows it would not happen as both the SLFP and UNP would
never oblige him.
President Maithripala Sirisena
and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe more than power, credibility has become
the main issue. They are trying to retain their credibility on multiple fronts
– as leaders of the unity coalition that set out to provide an alternative to
Rajapaksa’s autocratic rule, to survive as leaders of the party in the face of
challengers making deals to dethrone them and to show the people that they can
still deliver on what they promised before the end of this term.
The current situation faced by
the three leaders – Rajapaksa, Sirisena and Wickremesinghe – may be aptly
described as ‘wheels in wheels’ – a number of different influences, reasons and
actions which together make a situation complicated and difficult to
understand, as Collins dictionary says. But, Sirisena-Wickremesinghe duo has a
bigger burden than Rajapaksa, who is at the barricades, heckling them from the
periphery.
Notwithstanding their internal
party leadership compulsions, the skills of both Srisena and Wickremesinghe
will be tested on many aspects in the coming months as political uncertainty
looms large in the horizon. The LG election results show, their rule has raised
a whole lot of questions in the minds of people of all hues – Sinhalas,
Muslims, Tamils and others who believed them and voted them to power. Both of them need to answer these questions.
Perhaps, both the leaders need
the multi-tasking ability of Avadhānam practitioners
of ancient India. Avadhānaṃ used to
be a popular literary entertainment performed in ancient days in India. It
is still performed in isolated pockets of Andhra and Tamil Nadu. It involves the partial improvisation of poetry using specific
themes, metres, forms, or words.
In the two performances of
Avadhanam I had seen in Tamil Nadu, it was performed in Tamil, though
originally it was the preserve of Sanskrit scholars in ancient India. In Andhra
Pradesh it is still in vogue. In both the performances I saw, the scholars show
cased their mastery of cognitive skills in observation, memory, multitasking,
recapitulation and logical reasoning in literature, poetry, music, mathematical
skills and solving conundrums - all at the same time! Typically, the second
line of a verse from a Tamil classic like Tirukkural or Kamba
Ramayanam was quoted by the questioner (Prcchaka) and the Avadhani countered
it with the first line of the verse. At the same time the Avadhani had to keep
count of cowrie shells, continuously thrown on his back, while another
questioner posed a mathematical problem on the black board. Surprisingly, the Avadhanis
came out with very impressive performance.
After the LG election, the first
priority for both the leaders is to consciously reassure, not only their
followers, but also people who them to power that their alliance was not one of
convenience, but to deliver value.
The second, but perhaps the most
difficult priority is walking the talk. Most of the initiatives they had taken are
held up due to pulls and pressures or tangled in bureaucratic maze. Nearly
forty cases of corruption, misuse of power, human rights violations, economic
crimes, cronyism and even murders, are stagnating in various stages of
investigation or prosecution. They need to be taken to their logical conclusion.
People have been waiting for answers to serious allegations made by responsible
ministers that Rajapaksa family members and others had indulged in many of
these crimes. And three years is a long time. As we say in Hindi, time has come
for “Doodh ka doodh aur pani ka pani” (making things crystal clear). Otherwise,
when Sirisena and Wickremesinghe go to the hustings again, people would not
believe them. In this context, the duo has to speed up the prosecutions of the
accused in Bond scam; then only the unity government can refurbish it tarnished
image.
The third and equally difficult
priority is to draft the new constitution now before time runs out. There is
need for some honest soul searching on this issue among the leaders of political
parties, civil society and media. They should help speed up the process for an
equitable constitution. Otherwise, the lessons of the civil war in which over
100,000 Sri Lankan shed their blood would be wasted. A business process approach of transparency
in interactions among the stakeholders including the people and encouraging
periodic interaction to take the public into confidence will create a less
polticised environment for evolving a new constitution.
In the early days leading to
World War II, when Russia’s attitude to the brewing conflict was not known, Sir
Winston Churchill speaking on the radio in October 1938 said: “I cannot
forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery,
inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. The key is Russian national
interests.” The Sri Lankan situation may be compared to Churchill Russian
conundrum. Sri Lankan politicians would do well to remember that whatever they
decide has to be in national interest; all other considerations are peripheral
to this fundamental responsibility.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia, served
as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from
1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the
International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com
Blog:http://col.hariharan.info
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