Rajapaksa triumphs in local elections, his shadow
looms again over Sri Lankan politics
R Hariharan |Edit Page |World |Times of India| February 21,
2018
The shock waves of the landslide victory of the newly formed Sri
Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party, backed by former President Mahinda
Rajapaksa, in local government (LG) elections held on February 10, has left the
fragile coalition of President Maithripala Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) in
total disarray. Many members of both parties are pressuring the leaders to quit
the alliance and form the government on their own, while the two leaders are
blaming each other for the debacle.
The election had built in uncertainties as this
was the first time mixed voting system of proportional and first-past-the-post
voting was adopted for LG polls. Moreover, the parties had to nominate women
for 25% of their contestants. The two partners of the coalition contested
separately on their own and there was a lot of acrimony between them during the
campaigning. Sirisena tried and failed to win back SLFP members in the
opposition who were supporting Rajapaksa. UNP’s own internal leadership
squabble affected its performance.
70% of 15.8 million Sri Lankans voted to elect a
total of 8,293 members to 340 local bodies (24 municipal councils, 41 urban
councils and 275 divisional councils) in the election. According to official
results, SLPP secured 44.65% of votes and captured 231 local councils, UNP was
a distant second polling 32.63% votes to secure only 34 councils; the
Sirisena-led SLFP and its National Peoples Freedom Alliance (NPFA) got the worst
drubbing, polling a dismal 13.38% votes to capture only 9 councils. The Ilankai
Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) – the lead party of Tamil National Alliance (TNA) –
captured 41 local councils.
Undoubtedly, SLPP’s vote mostly came from southern Sinhala rural
voters indicating the former President Rajapaksa has maintained his support
base in the Sinhala heartland. Though LG elections do not necessarily reflect
political trends in parliamentary polls, Rajapaksa seems to have retained much
of the 47.6% votes he polled in the presidential election in 2015.
Though local issues dominate LG elections, they
serve as a barometer of political parties’ strength at the grassroots.
Moreover, the much delayed LG elections were also a mid-term reality check on
the performance of the ruling national unity coalition which had defeated
Rajapaksa not once, but twice, in presidential and parliamentary elections in
2015. If Rajapaksa’s current revival continues, he may well bounce back on
political mainstage when elections for nine provincial councils and parliament
are held in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
The main reason for the failure of UNP and SLFP
appears to be people’s disillusionment with the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe
coalition for failing to deliver upon their promises of good governance.
Perhaps, the most glaring failure related to the inordinate delay in punishing
those responsible for misuse of office, corruption and cronyism during the
Rajapaksa regime even though 34 such cases involving Rajapaksa family members
and their cohorts have been investigated. On the other hand, Sirisena
government had its own baggage of scams like the one involving Raja Mahendran,
governor of Bank of Ceylon in issuing sovereign bonds in 2015 and inclusion of
tainted members in the coalition.
The government’s co-sponsorship of a UNHRC
resolution to investigate human rights excesses and war crimes allegedly
committed by the army during the Eelam War probably hurt the nationalist
sentiments of many southern Sinhala voters. Sirisena is now reported to be
trying to force Wickremesinghe to step down from the PM’s post. On the other hand,
Wickremesinghe is said to be contemplating a government on UNP’s own strength.
Finance minister and UNP leader Mangala
Samaraweera said, “LG polls 2018 is a timely wake-up call to Yahapalana [good
governance] government to get back on track.” Civil society leaders are
pressuring both parties to work unitedly, as they do not want Rajapaksa’s
autocratic rule once again.
Fall of Sri Lanka’s unity government would be of
some concern to India. India owes it to the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe coalition
which restored balance in the country’s relations, skewed in favour of China
during Rajapaksa’s rule. It suits India that TNA has been broadly supportive of
the halting efforts of the national unity government to address the Tamil
question.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has gone the extra
mile to win back Sri Lanka’s confidence, with success. Squeezed by China’s debt
burden, Sri Lanka needs India’s helping hand more than ever before. So, we can
expect Sri Lanka to pursue its current policy on India even if there is a change
in the ruling coalition.
However, there is a qualitative change in the
strategic setting in Indian Ocean region in Sri Lanka’s vicinity, after
Maldives President Yameen declared a state of emergency defying a Supreme Court
judgment to release former President Nasheed and 11 other parliament members
from prison. China has a huge stake in the Yameen government and has explicitly
warned India to desist from “interfering” in the internal affairs of Maldives.
Though such a contingency in Sri Lanka does not appear
within the realms of possibility, India will have to watch developments in Sri
Lanka carefully as China is increasingly dominating Sri Lanka in many facets.
The handing over of Hambantota port to the Chinese on lease legitimises China
taking suitable measures to protect its interests. This has increased Sri
Lanka’s importance in India’s strategic security architecture and India would
always prefer a stable and friendly government in Sri Lanka.
The writer served as
the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka
(1987-90).
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