Col R Hariharan | 30-6-2018 |
Gotabaya for presidential poll
Former president Mahinda
Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) appears to be getting ready for
an early presidential poll in 2019, amidst reports that President Maithripala
Sirisena might call for an early election though they are due in 2020. There
had been a few reports of the SLPP fielding Gotabaya Rajapaksa, former defence
secretary and brother of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, as its
presidential candidate. Some political leaders have already voiced their
support to him for the post.
The issue came up again in the
media when the outgoing US Ambassador Atul Keshap made a courtesy call on
Mahinda Rajapaksa at his residence in Colombo. The Jaffna Tamil daily Kalaikkathir
quoted sources close to the former president that the ambassador told Rajapaksa
that neither the US government nor Western powers would welcome Gotabaya as a
presidential candidate. While the US embassy’s was non-committal saying the
meeting was a private one, Mahinda Rajapaksa vehemently denied the report.
In a telephone interview to Ceylon
Today, Rajapaksa said that in his personal conversation the US ambassador
had not made any mention of his brother Gotabaya or his suitability as a
presidential candidate. When he was asked about “an intra-family tussle between
his brothers Gotabaya and Basil over the possible presidential candidate, he
said it was not true. ‘What Basil had effectively said was that he would
support any candidate the SLPP nominates as the Presidential candidate.’”
Gotabaya is the preferred choice
of Sinhala nationalist segment and sections of Buddhist clergy for next
president. This was evident when Endaruwe Upali Thero, the deputy chief prelate
of the Asgiriya chapter, in his sermon (anusasana) on Gotabaya’s the 69th
birthday at his house, said that he should opt for military rule if that was
necessary to build the country. According to a report in Colombo Telegraph
the Thero noted that Gotabaya was referred as a Hitler and suggested that if
that was the case he should be one and build the nation. “What we need is a
leadership that has the blessings of Mahinda Rajapaksa and is linked with
Buddhism, the Buddhist Order and the Sinhalese. We can see that the law has
completely broken down. We need a leader who shows fidelity to the doctrine,”
he added.
All the Rajapaksa brothers and
the 16 SLFP MPs who voted for the no confidence motion against PM
Wickremesinghe, were present on the occasion. This would indicate the shape of
SLPP presidential campaign strongly supported by the Buddhist clergy and the
muscle of Sinhala nationalist segment, when Gotabaya is fielded as the SLPP
candidate.
However, Gotabaya, a US citizen
holding dual citizenship, will have to renounce his US citizenship to be
eligible to contest the presidential election. The 19th amendment to
the constitution, expressly forbids dual citizenship holders from contesting
elections. On this basis, the Supreme Court had forced Geetha Kumarasinghe, a
Swiss citizen holding dual citizenship, had to relinquish her parliamentary
seat.
However, Gotabaya speaking in another context as early as June 5, 2015
had said that he had already taken measures to cancel his dual nationality. “I
have already handed over the relevant documents to the US embassy in this
regard,” he added. It is not known whether the process is through.
Chinese financial support in
presidential election
Chinese support to Gotabaya’s
ascent as president can be expected, if we go by China’s financial support to Mahinda Rajapaksa’s
campaign during 2015 presidential election through Chinese companies. Details
of these transactions are contained in an investigative article on the controversial
Hambantota port project in the New York Times June 25, 2018 issue. The
article “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port” by Maria Habi-Abib lays
bare how China not only dictated terms utilizing Sri Lanka’s need for financing
the Hambantota port and other development projects not only to benefit Chinese
state owned companies, but also to
further China’s strategic interests to gain a strategic foothold in Sri Lanka.
Mahinda Rajapaksa played an important role in furthering Chinese strategy.
The report gives details of how
China corrupted the electoral process to ensure President Rajapaksa was elected
in 2015 election. The internal investigation reports give details of China
Harbor’s bank account which “dispensed” at least $7.6 million to affiliates of
Rajapaksa. It said ten days before the
polls, $3.7 million was distributed in cheques to buy gifts including saris for
supporters, print campaign promotional material, paying $38000 to a “popular
Buddhist monk” and volunteers. The report said most of the payments were made
from China Harbor’s sub account named “HPDP Phase 2” acronym for Hambantota
Port Development Project.
The NY Times report only confirms
what had been appearing in bits and pieces in Sri Lanka media during the last
four years. However, much to the embarrassment of the Maithripala-Ranil
government, which had promised to bring the corrupt to book, investigations
have dragged on while members of Rajapaksa clan continue to be politically
powerful entities. This was evident in the reply of Minister Lakshman Kiriella
to a media query on the NY Times report. He said the foreign minister had
officially “inquired” United Arab Emirates (UAE) whether funds received by
Mahinda Rajapaksa from China had been deposited there.
After Rajapaksa’s defeat, when
the Maithripala Sirisna government was saddled with the burden of making
payments for the debt that kept accumulating as Hambantota port proved unviable.
It was left with no option but to negotiate with the Chinese. After months of
negotiations, in December 2017, the government handed over the port and 15000
acres of land around it for 99 years to the Chinese set off nearly $1 billion
dollars of the loan. However, the debt servicing burden continues to be a drag
on the country’s economy. This has provided further opportunities for the Chinese
to become favoured lenders.
The transfer of the port has
given China a strategic foothold on Sri Lankan coast dominating the critical
merchant marine and military sea lanes of Indian Ocean. There is little space
for the present Sri Lanka government to get out of the Chinese debt trap,
however much it may like to. This has enabled China to further firm in Sri
Lanka by gaining lucrative contracts to Chinese companies on its own terms,
through opaque process.
For instance, the Resettlement ministry has awarded a
contract to China Railway Beijing Engineering Group Co Ltd and its
representative Yapka Construction Pvt Ltd to build 40,000 prefabricated houses
in the North East without going through the tender process. According to Sunday
Times report India has expressed its concern at the whole process of awarding
the contract to a company with no record of construction in in the North and
East increasing India’s concerns.
The Sirisena government has
repeatedly tried to reassure India on its national security concerns. The
latest is Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe office clarifying that Sri Lanka
Navy (SLN) would be in charge of Hambantota
port security. SLN was moving its Southern Command to Hmabantota. It
added that Sri Lanka had also informed the Chinese that Hambantota cannot be
used for military purposes. But in times of strategic necessity, Chinese are
unlikely to read such fine print.
India has to recast its foreign
relations and security calculus factoring China’s increasing overt and covert
influence in Sri Lanka’s politics, economy and security space. With China
increasing its hold on Maldives, at the cost of India, Indian dominance of the
Indian Ocean region is likely to face bigger challenges in the near
future.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI
officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force
in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for
China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law and
Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info
No comments:
Post a Comment