Tuesday, 4 December 2018

Sri Lanka Perspectives: November 2018


Col R Hariharan | 30-11-2018 |Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, December 2018 | www.security-risks.com |

Breaking the political impasse

President Maithripala Sirisena is trying hard to work out a face saving compromise to break the political deadlock created by him after installed former president Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister, sacking PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, three weeks ago. Though PM Rajapaksa and his cabinet have taken over the government, the parliament has refused to accept his appointment. The country is in a drift as day to day functioning of the government is hamstrung by the crisis.

Former PM Wickremesinghe refusing to vacate the PM’s official residence Temple Trees, and his party said to be meeting the expenditure for his continued stay there, typically illustrates the confusing ground situation.  

A defiant speaker Karu Jayasuriya, rejected President’s order to prorogue the parliament and later dissolve it. He has ensured two no confidence motions are passed against the Rajapaksa government. The parliament boycotted by Rajapaksa’s UPFA-SLPP coalition, has passed yet another resolution to block any expenditure by PM’s office.

A plethora of cases against President Sirisena’s actions dubbed as unconstitutional by Wickremesinghe and his erstwhile coalition partners is pending in the supreme court. These cases are likely to be disposed of on December 7, 2018.  Added to this, Wickremesinghe’s quo warranto petition  filed to prevent PM Rajapaksa from functioning filed in the Court of Appeal is coming up for hearing on December 3, 2018. 

With pressure building up on two fronts - in parliament and the impending verdict in the cases in Supreme Court - President Sirisena has probably realized the only way to defuse the situation is to work out a deal with the opposition leaders. The Speaker agreed to arrange a one-on-one meeting between the President with the leaders of the United National Front (UNF) constituent parties led by Wickremesinghe and with the four-party Tamil National Alliance (TNA) members led by the leader of the opposition P Sampanthan to explore a possible way out of the crisis.

The meetings took place on November 30, 2018 as scheduled. But it was probably inconclusive. According to TNA sources, the President is said to have advised them to pass another no confidence motion against Rajapaksa government in the parliament in accordance with the standing orders when it meets on December 5, 2018.  This could pave the way for swearing in another UNP nominee as PM. President Sirisena has repeatedly vowed not to accept Wickremesinghe again as PM again; so far the UNP has not chosen another leader from the party to be the PM. The President will probably withdraw the notification dissolving the parliament as the price for striking a deal with the opposition. Seeking UNF cooperation for holding a fresh parliamentary election could also be another trade off for President Sirisena.

PM Rajapaksa in his first televised address after taking over as PM said the country’s stability could be restored through a fresh round of parliamentary election. He added that the UNP, unlike other parties, was not ready to face the people. The PM said President Sirisena had entrusted him to resurrect the falling economy and living standard of the people. Referring to his government, he said “what we have now is only an interim government. When a downward trend manifests itself, it is difficult to turn things around in a month or two.”  He alleged that the Wickremesinghe government had borrowed $20.7 bn in three years and it would take a while to turn things around.

However, in May 2018, when a no confidence motion against PM Wickremesinghe was defeated, the PM described the motion as an attempt not to just oust him, but the first step to topple the National Unity government led by President Sirisena. He had asked the party should prepare for the coming provincial, presidential and parliamentary elections. Is the UNP ready now for a parliamentary election?

Arrest of the CDS and attempted transfer of CID Inspector

President Sirisena speaking to foreign correspondents has assured non interference in ongoing investigations into abductions, killing of journalists, and other crimes allegedly committed by those connected to the new government. He said ‘no one can interfere’ with police and courts. Apparently, the President’s assurance was a damage control measure after political parties raised a furore when Inspector Nishantha Adrian Silva of the CID branch, investigating a number of highly sensitive cases, was suddenly transferred by the Inspector General of police. It was allegedly done due to pressure from the President’s office.

The cases he was handling included the assaulting of journalist Keith Neyhr by suspected military intelligence personnel and the case of Lt Comdr Hettiarachchi involved in the kidnapping and disappearance of 11 Tamil youth in 2008-2009.

However, the police commission intervened to cancel the transfer of Inspector Nishantha, indicating at least the Yahapalana government has indeed made a difference in making the commissions function independently.

Curiously, while the whole drama of the CID inspector’s transfer was being enacted, Sri Lanka’s highest ranking serving military officer Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Ravindra Wijegunaratne, appeared before Colombo Fort Magistrate and was remanded to custody till December 5, 2018.

It is interesting to note that earlier the CDS failed to appear before  the CID and give a statement on his alleged help to Lt Comdr Hettiararchchi to evade arrest in the case of kidnapping 11 youth. 

The arrest and prosecution of the CDS could set a precedent for the arrest of other service officers allegedly involved in war crimes. President Sirisena has repeatedly said he would never to prosecute armed forces personnel on alleged war crimes. So, how he reacts to the arrest of the CDS is likely to determine whether other cases involving two naval officers would be allowed to take its logical course.

Tail piece: Even the constitutional crisis and its questionable status did not deter the government from signing two contracts totaling more than $50 million with two Chinese firms. The contract worth $32 million with China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) was to enhance the deep berth capacity of the state-run Jaya Container Terminal in Colombo. The other contract worth $25.7 million was for the supply of three cranes from Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries for the same project. India had expressed its concern at the deal earlier as  80 per cent of its marine trade passes through the port.

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info

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