Col R Hariharan | 30-11-2018 |Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, December
2018 | www.security-risks.com |
Breaking the political impasse
President Maithripala Sirisena is trying hard to work out a face
saving compromise to break the political deadlock created by him after
installed former president Mahinda Rajapaksa as Prime Minister, sacking PM
Ranil Wickremesinghe, three weeks ago. Though PM Rajapaksa and his cabinet have
taken over the government, the parliament has refused to accept his
appointment. The country is in a drift as day to day functioning of the
government is hamstrung by the crisis.
Former PM Wickremesinghe refusing to vacate the PM’s official
residence Temple Trees, and his party said to be meeting the expenditure for
his continued stay there, typically illustrates the confusing ground situation.
A defiant speaker Karu Jayasuriya, rejected President’s order to
prorogue the parliament and later dissolve it. He has ensured two no confidence
motions are passed against the Rajapaksa government. The parliament boycotted
by Rajapaksa’s UPFA-SLPP coalition, has passed yet another resolution to block
any expenditure by PM’s office.
A plethora of cases against President Sirisena’s actions dubbed
as unconstitutional by Wickremesinghe and his erstwhile coalition partners is
pending in the supreme court. These cases are likely to be disposed of on
December 7, 2018. Added to this,
Wickremesinghe’s quo warranto
petition filed to prevent PM Rajapaksa
from functioning filed in the Court of Appeal is coming up for hearing on
December 3, 2018.
With pressure building up on two fronts - in parliament and the impending
verdict in the cases in Supreme Court - President Sirisena has probably
realized the only way to defuse the situation is to work out a deal with the
opposition leaders. The Speaker agreed to arrange a one-on-one meeting between
the President with the leaders of the United National Front (UNF) constituent
parties led by Wickremesinghe and with the four-party Tamil National Alliance
(TNA) members led by the leader of the opposition P Sampanthan to explore a
possible way out of the crisis.
The meetings took place on November 30, 2018 as scheduled. But
it was probably inconclusive. According to TNA sources, the President is said
to have advised them to pass another no confidence motion against Rajapaksa
government in the parliament in accordance with the standing orders when it
meets on December 5, 2018. This could
pave the way for swearing in another UNP nominee as PM. President Sirisena has
repeatedly vowed not to accept Wickremesinghe again as PM again; so far the UNP
has not chosen another leader from the party to be the PM. The President will
probably withdraw the notification dissolving the parliament as the price for
striking a deal with the opposition. Seeking UNF cooperation for holding a
fresh parliamentary election could also be another trade off for President
Sirisena.
PM Rajapaksa in his first televised address after taking over as
PM said the country’s stability could be restored through a fresh round of
parliamentary election. He added that the UNP, unlike other parties, was not
ready to face the people. The PM said President Sirisena had entrusted him to
resurrect the falling economy and living standard of the people. Referring to
his government, he said “what we have now is only an interim government. When a
downward trend manifests itself, it is difficult to turn things around in a
month or two.” He alleged that the
Wickremesinghe government had borrowed $20.7 bn in three years and it would
take a while to turn things around.
However, in May 2018, when a no confidence motion against
PM Wickremesinghe was defeated, the PM described the motion as an attempt not
to just oust him, but the first step to topple the National Unity government
led by President Sirisena. He had asked the party should prepare for the coming
provincial, presidential and parliamentary elections. Is the UNP ready now for
a parliamentary election?
Arrest of the CDS
and attempted transfer of CID Inspector
President Sirisena speaking to foreign correspondents has
assured non interference in ongoing investigations into abductions, killing of
journalists, and other crimes allegedly committed by those connected to the new
government. He said ‘no one can interfere’ with police and courts. Apparently,
the President’s assurance was a damage control measure after political parties
raised a furore when Inspector Nishantha Adrian Silva of the CID branch,
investigating a number of highly sensitive cases, was suddenly transferred by
the Inspector General of police. It was allegedly done due to pressure from the
President’s office.
The cases he was handling included the assaulting of journalist
Keith Neyhr by suspected military intelligence personnel and the case of Lt
Comdr Hettiarachchi involved in the kidnapping and disappearance of 11 Tamil
youth in 2008-2009.
However, the police commission intervened to cancel the transfer
of Inspector Nishantha, indicating at least the Yahapalana government has indeed
made a difference in making the commissions function independently.
Curiously, while the whole drama
of the CID inspector’s transfer was being enacted, Sri Lanka’s highest ranking
serving military officer Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Ravindra Wijegunaratne,
appeared before Colombo Fort Magistrate and was remanded to custody till
December 5, 2018.
It is interesting to note that earlier the CDS failed to appear
before the CID and give a statement on
his alleged help to Lt Comdr Hettiararchchi to evade arrest in the case of
kidnapping 11 youth.
The arrest and prosecution of the CDS could set a precedent for
the arrest of other service officers allegedly involved in war crimes. President
Sirisena has repeatedly said he would never to prosecute armed forces personnel
on alleged war crimes. So, how he reacts to the arrest of the CDS is likely to
determine whether other cases involving two naval officers would be allowed to
take its logical course.
Tail piece: Even the constitutional crisis and its questionable status did
not deter the government from signing two contracts totaling more than $50
million with two Chinese firms. The contract worth $32 million with China
Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) was to enhance the deep berth capacity of
the state-run Jaya Container Terminal in Colombo. The other contract worth
$25.7 million was for the supply of three cranes from Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy
Industries for the same project. India had expressed its concern at the deal
earlier as 80 per cent of its marine
trade passes through the port.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of
Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He
is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis
Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info
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