Col R Hariharan |31-12-2019| South Asia Security Trends, January
2020
President Gotabaya starts with a bang
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s actions in the first 43 days
of rule showed he was determined to live up to the popular expectations as a
man of action. This comes in sharp contrast to the earlier government which
wasted nearly an year witb former President Sirisena and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe
busy trying to politically outsmart each other.
President Rajapaksa has set his own style of functioning by
picking qualified and experienced persons for heading state institutions rather
than filling them with political appointees like his predecessors (including
his brother Mahinda). His appointment of Dr PB Jayasundara, an economist, as
secretary indicates that revamping the country’s economy would be his priority.
Similarly he has chosen Dr DWD Lakshman, an economist not tainted by association
with the Central Bank scam as the Governor of the Central Bank. As Indo-Pacific
strategic issues are likely to increasingly figure in Sri Lanka’s foreign
policy, he has appointed former Navy Commander Admiral Jayanath Colombage as
advisor in foreign affairs.
Similarly, he has
appointed Ms Prince Sarojini Manmatharajah Charles, a senior Tamil civil servant with vast experience as Northern
Province Governor. During the conflict in 2009, Ms Charles did a commendable
job was in charge of the refugee camps in Vavuniya, housing about 290,000
people from the war-torn districts of Vavuniya and Mullaitivu.
President Rajapaksa’s actions are largely in conformity with
priorities spelt out in the run up to the presidential election: addressing
national security concerns particularly relating to jihadi terrorism, tax cuts
and incentives for small and medium enterprises, reduce inflation and beefing
up economy and closely orchestrated actions to “curb corruption and prosecuting
the corrupt.” There are also other structural revamps in the offing to revamp
economy and strengthen security apparatus including the intelligence set up.
Many of his actions would please the Sinhala nationalist
segment that voted him to power. This was evident in the aggressive conduct of
some of the fringe elements among Buddhist clergy against other religious
minorities. On the other hand, there is a sense of déjà vu among civil society
and minorities.
In a statement, the National Peace Council (NPC) expressed its
“concern” at some of the statements by the President. The NPC specifically
touched upon three issues. First related to his statement that
development would be prioritized in resolving the ethnic conflict and that strengthening
the system of devolution; the NPC said this was “not going to be the answer.”
The second issue was President Rajapaksa’s assertion that
there was “no problem of missing persons to be resolved” and limiting it to
those who fell on the battlefields. This is a long standing, vexing issue
relating to people who went missing not only during the Eelam Wars but also the
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) insurrection. Successive governments had
faced the issue without success.
In 2016, the Sirisena government agreed to
issue certificate of absence to relatives of over 65,000 to enable them to gain
guardianship of their children and manage property of missing persons. In 2017,
the government created the Office of the Missing Persons to expeditiously
deal with cases of missing persons and enforced dis-appearance. Though
President Rajapaksa had only restated the stand of the earlier Mahinda
Rajapaksa rule which wished away the issue, he is likely to face political back
lash not only at home but also internationally.
NPC’s last point related to the reported statement of
minister Janaka Bandara Tennekone who had said the national anthem would be
sung only in Sinhala and not in Tamil at the Independence Day celebrations on
February 3, 2020. Fringe elements among the Buddhist clergy had welcomed the
move. The singing of the national anthem in Tamil was unofficially dropped
during Mahinda Rajapaksa rule. But it was restored when Sirisena-Wickremesinghe
government came to power. However, after a lot of criticism over the
proposed move the President and PM Rajapaksa have clarified that no decision
has been taken on the issue.
Sri
Lanka is required to repay $ 4.8 billion in debt in 2020. So President
Rajapaksa’s main challenge will be how to revamp the economy while managing the
debt burden. The state-owned the Sunday Observer in a source report said
President Rajapaksa had created a new Bureau for National Policies and Plan
Implementation. The Cabinet is said to have approved the proposal at its
meeting on December 18. This development agency directly under the president
will annul earlier state agencies like the National Economic Commission (NEC)
and the Strategic Enterprise Management Agency (SEMA).
The Agency would be
tasked to achieve the targeted economic growth rate of 6.5% of GDP for the
period 2020- 2025. Ambitious targets have been set to increase per capita
income to over US $ 6500, and reduce unemployment to less than 4%, budget
deficit to 4% of GDP and cut inflation to 5% respectively. President’s ceremonial
speech when the parliament meets on January 3 is likely to focus on how he
proposes to achieve his development agenda.
The
opposition United Nationalist Party (UNP)-led National Democratic Front (NDF)
is in disarray. Sajith Premadasa, UNP presidential candidate, has accused
some of the party leaders working to defeat him rather than help him get
elected. The UNP’s internal power struggle between its leader Ranil
Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa is yet to be resolved though the former
grudgingly agreed to Premadasa heading the party as leader of the opposition in
parliament.
The arrest of former ministers Dr Ranjitha Senaratne and Champika
Ranawaka has irked the UNP leadership. Both the leaders were at the forefront
of the campaign to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa when he contested the presidential
electon in 2015. While Ranawaka was arrested on a case of accident of 2016
vintage, Senaratne was arrested in connection with a news conference he held
two days before the presidential election. He produced two persons who claimed
to be drivers of white vans which carried out abductions during the Rajapaksa
rule. They also alleged that a large quantity of gold seized from the LTTE was
illegally transported to Colombo. However, police investigations have revealed
these were false allegations. Though both were released on bail, the arrests
were probably intended to send a strong message to the opposition
On
the international front, the President is tight rope walking between India and
China on the one hand and keeping lines of communication open with the US on
the other to access the IMF loan kitty. Rajapaksa’s statement while visiting
India, terming the agreement with China on Hambantota Port as a “mistake” and
it should be renegotiated had its fall out when he returned home. Speaking to
foreign correspondents at a luncheon meeting he said there no need to
renegotiate the agreement but the security aspects would need to be looked
into. Perhaps the security aspect was behind the appointment of retired General Daya Ratnayake as Chairman of the Sri Lanka Ports
Authority (SLPA). We can expect Sri Lanka taking up the issue of redrafting
some clauses of the agreement when the President visits Beijing in the third
week of January 2020.
Though the President’s clarification on the issue of
renegotiation was of some comfort to the Chinese, the embassy statement issued
later chose to emphasize the President had made it clear that the Sri Lankan
government would not re-negotiate the existing agreement on Hambantota Port and
the commercial contract that was signed would not be changed due to change of
the government. It reiterated that the security and control of the Port was
entirely in the hands of Sri Lanka government and Navy.
Tail piece: According to a Colombo
media report Sri Lanka presidential secretariat was “making plans” to invite
Prime Minister Narendra Modi as chief guest for the Independence Day
celebrations on February 3, 2020. Yet another act of tight rope walking?
Col R
Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the
Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with
the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the
International Law and Strategic Analysis. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:: https://col.hariharan.info
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