Col
R Hariharan |30-4-2020| Sri Lanka Perspectives April 2020 | South Asia Security Trends, May 2020 www.security-risks.com
Sri Lanka Election
Commission (EC) has announced on April 20 that the parliamentary election delayed
due to Corona pandemic threat, will be held on Saturday, June 20. However,
there appears to be a lot of uncertainty about holding it on June 20. EC Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya is reported to have
told the representatives of political parties, who met him a day later, that
June 20 set for the election was “by no means final” and the
situation would be reviewed on May 4. The opposition leaders were protesting strongly
against holding the election when the Corona pandemic had not been brought
under control. They pointed out election
campaigning under such circumstances would affect the safety of the people, who
would be exposed to the virus on a large scale.
In
a subsequent interview on April 28, the EC Chairman clarified
that “a minimum period of five weeks is required for candidates to campaign for
the election, which would mean that the country should be free of COVID-19 by
at least May 15, so that a free, fair, transparent and credible election can be
held.” The EC proposes to take stock of the situation every ten days. He also said
the election can only be held after health authorities give the green light. In
other words, EC’s decision to hold the election on June 20 will be subject to prior
clearance from the government and health authorities (finally by May 15 in EC
Chairman’s reckoning). This rider is
likely to be played up by opposition parties, during the constricted
campaigning likely due to the Corona virus threat.
The main
opposition the United National Party (UNP) and its allies do not seem to have
recovered from the damaging effect of UNP’s internal schism which enabled
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa victory with a clear majority. So, as of now the Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka
Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) is probably
the favourite to win more seats in the parliamentary election as and when it is
held. Though the Rajapaksas winning two thirds majority appears slim.
However,
President Rajapaksa, unlike his brother Mahinda who had political compulsions in choosing his aides, has worked to
create a favourable government environment unmindful of the political
environment. President Gotabaya, like US President Ronald Reagan, appears to be
a votary of the Russian proverb “Trust and Verify” (Doveryáy, no
proveryáy). He has hand-picked trusted
senior military officers and veterans to fill key appointments that matter. He has reorganised the intelligence structure
and police investigative apparatus “pruning” officers of “suspect” credentials.
Apparently,
he had chosen to ignore reported misgiving among some senior political leaders
who were side-lined in this process. Civil society leaders have expressed their
concern at the militarisation of administrative processes. Nothing illustrates
this better than task force created to fight the Covid-19 packed with veteran
army and naval officers. Military personnel have been employed on a large scale
in duties connected with enforcing virus restrictions; military intelligence
has been used to identify and trace Cornona affected persons and their
associates, who might be infected.
In keeping
with his style, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa with an eye to have an early
parliamentary election, ordered the dissolution of the parliament on March 4,
ignoring early signs of Corona virus epidemic threatening to spread further. Now
the increasing Covid-19 pandemic has queered the President’s plans and
introduced uncertainty over holding it even in June. A number of questions are
being raised over Constitutional impropriety of government decisions being
taken when the parliament stands dissolved. On the other hand, opposition
parties also seem to have understood the extraordinary situation created by
pandemic, while questioning the wisdom of holding the election. Seven
opposition parties have offered “responsible cooperation” to the President in
return for restoration of [dissolved] parliament. The precondition makes it an
exercise in futility.
The President
has now made reducing the Covid threat to
manageable proportions as his No. 1 priority. According to President
Rajapaksa “at the moment we have minimised this virus from spreading in the
country….Sri Lanka had a proper mechanism to collect the information needed to
stop the infection from spreading from each patient,” the Presidential Media
Division statement said.
Sri
Lanka’s Covid count as on April 30 stands at: confirmed cases 660, active cases
514 and deaths only 7. A disturbing
aspect has been the spread of virus among Navy personnel; 226 sailors have been
infected with Covid so far according to Acting Chief of Defence Staff Lt Gen
Shavendra Silva. Naval personnel infected include 147 within the Welisara navy
camp and 79 persons on leave.
Epidemiologist
reckon that both confirmed and active cases have probably peaked and expect it to
start plateauing by May first week. So hopefully, if the wishes come true the election
could be held on June 20. But the question, at what cost will continue to haunt
the EC when it conducts the election, even with the blessing of the government.
However,
even before the election campaigning start disturbing trends continue to vitiate
the socio-political environment churned up by the spread of the virus.
The
first is prominent role played by the Maha Sangha in what are considered as political
issues. The President Gotabaya Rajapaksa met with the prelates of the Maha
Sangha and brief them on the need for a strong parliament “to fulfil the
aspirations bestowed on him with the landslide victory. He is reported to have
told them that there were no constitutional powers to reconvene the dissolved
parliament. He also expected to meet the Maha Sangha regularly on the third
Friday of every month. The prelates have also said there was no need for
reconvening the dissolved parliament. Their statement comes in the face of opposition
parties’ demand for reconvening; moreover, the Supreme Court is already examining
its constitutional validity.
Buddhist
clergy have continued to voice against Muslim political leaders for suspected
involvement with the Easter Sunday Jihadi terrorist bombings, though the police have cleared them
after preliminary enquiry. In the anti Muslim back lash that followed Muslim
Covid patients have been refused treatment and victims of virus death have not
been allowed to be buried till the government orders followed. These pin pricks
have further unnerved the Muslim community.
It
has increased the suspicion of Buddhist clergy influencing government actions. Such
apprehension is probably behind UN Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, Summary
or Arbitrary Killings, Agnes Callamard’s statement that any measures taken to
deal with the COVID-19 emergency should be guided by the principles of
legality, proportion, precaution and non-discrimination.
Second
is the absence of follow up action of the Rajapaksa government upon the findings
of inquiry commissions including a parliamentary select committee (PSC) on the
Easter Sunday Jihadi terrorist attacks last year killing 259 people. The PSC
had accused the then President Sirisena of ‘actively undermining’ national
security and of failing to prevent the Easter Sunday bombings. It also alleged
that had not given proper guidance or support to the security establishment and
police. The report also noted PM Ranil Wickremesinghe and Deputy Defence
Minister Ruwan Wijewardene at that time had failed in their duties.
Cardinal
Malcom Ranjith, the chief of Roman Catholic Church, met with President
Rajapaksa and expressed the concern of survivors and victims’ families at lack
of action against those behind the attack. Many Catholic church leaders have
said that a strong public protest campaign would be launched against the
failure on the part of the government to punish those responsible for the
Easter Sunday carnage, after the Covid epidemic was brought under control.
Lastly,
human rights violations by law enforcing agencies have continued to be a cause of
concern for civil society. But this is nothing new, considering the tardy
action taken or failure by successive governments in the past to improve their accountability
over such allegations.
Col R
Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the
Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with
the Chennai Centre for China Studies and South Asia Analysis Group Email: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:: https://col.hariharan.info
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