With the Rajapaksas getting a resounding win in the general election in Sri Lanka, they will be able to get rid of the 19th amendment which curbs presidential powers. But getting back to the unitary state could pose problems
By Col R Hariharan |Special story| India Legal, August 15, 2020 https://www.indialegallive.com/special-story/the-burden-of-victory
While this
was not unexpected, their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party led by
Mahinda won 145 seats, 15 more than what they had forecast. This was 59.09
percent of the votes cast. With three minor allies adding six to the tally, the
SLPP alliance will be 151-strong, which is two-thirds of the 225-member house.
A distant runner-up was Samagi Jana Baalawegaya (SJB), led by Sajith Premadasa,
former deputy leader of the United National Party (UNP) and son of the late
President Ranasinghe Premadasa. It secured 54 seats, polling 23.9 percent of
the votes. Then came the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) winning 10 seats, but
polling only 2.82 percent votes. It was followed by the Marxist Janatha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power alliance and other parties
which could count their seats in single digits only.
As the
headline of an article by former diplomat Dr Dayan Jayatilleke said, it was a
“Battle of Breakaways”. Both the SLPP and the SJB had broken away from the Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the UNP, which had dominated national politics
from the early years of independence. The SLPP came into being after the defeat
of Mahinda Rajapaksa in the presidential poll in 2015 after his long-term
acolyte Maithripala Sirisena deserted him to become a challenger, and
ultimately the victor.
The UNP, the
74-year-old party, appears to be heading for the old-age home after Sajith
Premadasa broke away. It fared badly, losing its traditional support base in
Colombo, and managed to secure just one seat, that too on the National List, as
against a whopping 106 seats it had in the last parliament. Its vote share fell
to an all-time low of 5.1 percent from over 45 percent it secured just five
years back. The UNP’s exit is due to its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe losing
touch with traditional supporters. This was aggravated by his inability to
understand the groundswell of discontent brewing in his party rank and file.
Prime Minister Rajapaksa bouncing back to power is no mean achievement
considering that in 2010, his bid for a third term as president failed. While
the SLPP campaigned hard, the backlash from voters who had brought the SLFP and UNP coalition to power helped
Rajapaksa’s runaway victory. The voters punished both parties for their failure
to fulfil their promise of good governance. Their National Unity Alliance spent
more time with President Sirisena plotting to pull down Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe and vice versa than deliver on their promises.
There were
other factors too which led to their defeat. Wickremesinghe’s alleged links to
two bond scams in which the central bank incurred losses were not investigated
fully. The horrendous Easter Sunday bombing by suicide bombers in 2019,
resulting in the death of 259 people, in spite of the government receiving
advance information, exposed the abysmal state of governance and the people
opted to bring the Rajapaksas back to power.
With
two-thirds majority in parliament, the Rajapaksas would be able to get rid of
the inconvenient 19th amendment to the constitution, legislated by the previous
government to curb presidential powers. President Rajapaksa is also likely to
tinker with or even remove the 13th amendment that provided for the creation of
provincial councils to give a level of autonomy to the Tamils. It came as a
result of the India-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987 and has met some of the minority
aspirations, through partial implementation. It continues to be a red rag to
the Sinhala nationalist lobby.
President
Rajapaksa would like to draw up a new constitution that fits in with his
concept of building a strong unified state. But it may not be an easy exercise
as it rouses ethnic passions and chauvinism. It would be more prudent to build
a consensus to draw up a draft constitution, acceptable to all sections. Can
the president meet this tough challenge?
The president
has appointed 25 cabinet ministers, 39 state ministers and 25 district
coordinating committee chairpersons (who are supposed to wield a lot of
influence in affairs of their district). Thus, 64 members out of the 150-strong
ruling alliance (if we exclude the Speaker), will be holding office as
ministers. According to a media report, though 40 state ministerial posts have
been gazetted, only 39 state ministers were sworn in. Dr Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe,
designated as one of the four state ministers of education, had refused to
accept the appointment as he wanted a cabinet minister’s post. There is some
discontent among other senior members also for ignoring them for a cabinet
post.
Five members of the Rajapaksa family are now occupying positions of power—president, prime minister, cabinet ministers and minister of state. They control defence, finance, internal security, home and not the least, Buddha Sasana and religious affairs. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has defence under him, while his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, controls finance and the eldest brother Chamal is irrigation minister. Two Rajapaksas belong to the third generation—Namal, son of PM Rajapaksa and his cousin, Shasheendra. Second time parliamentarian Namal’s inclusion as a cabinet minister for sports and youth affairs could be viewed as grooming an heir apparent to Mahinda. Shasheendra, son of Chamal, the eldest of the Rajapaksa brothers, has an “innovative” portfolio—state minister for a “grocery list”—paddy and cereals, organic food, vegetables, fruits, chilli, onion and potato and seed production and high-tech agriculture! Other state ministers also have such responsibilities in detail, showing a thoroughness (or is it an over-working bureaucracy?) not known before. But it shows the president’s serious intent in laying emphasis on agriculture, education and development of small industry using a new generation of politicians as state ministers. Fourteen members of the SLFP, including Sirisena, have been elected. The Rajapaksas seem to have marginalised the SLFP within the alliance by keeping Sirisena out of power. Only two cabinet posts and three state ministers’ posts have been offered to the SLFP. In contrast, four of the eight members elected from President Rajapaksa’s “Viyathamaga” group of professionals have been made state ministers. This group acted as foot soldiers of Rajapaksa during his presidential election campaign and are viewed by politicians with some trepidation.
Marginalising
the old war horses of the SLFP and SLPP while accumulating power within their
clan could lead to discontentment against the Rajapaksas. How adroitly the
president manages the competing priorities of family and party could become a
litmus test for his leadership ability.
On the other
hand, President Rajapaksa has to be commended for appointing a national list
member Dr Ali Sabry as
minister of justice in spite of opposition from the Sinhala Buddhist lobby. This should be
of some consolation to the Muslim minority community as their representation in
the new parliament has been whittled down.
The biggest and
immediate challenge the president faces is managing the economy wrecked by
Covid-19, especially tourism and allied services which have come to a grinding
halt, and the return of over 40,000 Sri Lankans working abroad. Though Sri
Lanka has managed to control Covid, its impact on export and import has been
disastrous. The country is facing a serious money crunch and has to depend upon
assistance from both India and China.
President
Rajapaksa’s vision statement, “Vistas
of Prosperity and Splendour”, has been adopted by the SLPP as its
manifesto. Its vision for a prosperous nation aims at a productive citizen, a
happy family, a disciplined society and a prosperous nation. Its key policies
include priority to national security; friendly, non-aligned, foreign policy;
administration free from corruption; a disciplined, law-abiding and value based
society. Can the president manage to at least partly deliver on these promises?
Sirisena failed because he could not extricate himself from his political
priorities.
Coming to the
swearing-in of the PM and his ministers, there was a lot of Sinhala Buddhist
symbolism in choosing the venues. This was similar to the time when President
Gotabaya Rajapaksa was sworn in at Kandy, a historic site of consolidation of
the Sinhalas. He was sworn in at the site of the victory pillar of Duttegemunu,
the Sinhala king who defeated the last Tamil king Ellalan in Kandy. On August
9, Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as PM at the Kelaniya Maha Viharaya Buddhist
temple, near the capital. According to Buddhist lore, Buddha is supposed to
have visited the temple. Equally significant was the venue chosen for swearing
in cabinet ministers and state ministers—at Magul Maduva, the hall in the
Dalada Malegawa, the Temple of the Tooth, the most sacred Buddhist site in the
country.
The symbolic
gestures were only a reiteration of what President Rajapaksa said in his maiden
speech in parliament on January 3, 2020: “We must always respect the aspirations of the majority of the people. It
is only then that the sovereignty of the people will be safeguarded. In
accordance with our Constitution, I pledge that during my term of office, I
will always defend the unitary status of our country, and protect and nurture
the Buddha Sasana, whilst safeguarding the rights of all citizens to practice a
religion of their choice.”
President
Rajapaksa has to probably tone down the Sinhala Buddhist rhetoric, lest their
fringe elements take it as licence to go berserk against Muslims, just as they
did during his brother’s rule. This could draw adverse international attention,
the last thing the president would want as he manages the country through
difficult times.
2 comments:
Great insights, Col. Hariharan! It's valuable to hear the perspective of an outsider. Sir, I hereby offer to work with you on some factual errors in this report.
aravinda.uga@gmail.com
Thank you. Please do let me know the errors. I always welcome them;
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