Maldives’ Maladies

In a surprising volte-face, President Mohamed Muizzu reached out to India in a bid to thaw ties. Is Maldives becoming a “swing state” buffeted by India-China’s strategic maelstrom in the Indian Ocean?

By Col R Hariharan | Magazine |Special | India Legal |March 29, 2024

https://www.indialegallive.com/magazine/maldives-president-muizzu-india-china-indian-ocean/

Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu, who got elected flaunting his “India out” credentials, surprised everyone last week by saying India will continue to remain his country’s closest ally. 

In his first-ever interview to a local media outlet, Muizzu emphasised that he had “not taken any action nor made any statements” that may strain the relationship between the two countries. He fervently hoped that India would accommodate debt relief measures for the loans successive governments in Maldives had taken from India. “The conditions we have inherited are such that there are very large loans taken from India. Hence, we are holding discussions to explore leniencies in the repayment structure of these loans. Instead of halting any ongoing projects, proceed with them at speed. So, I see no reason for any adverse effects [on Maldives-India relations],” he said.

Obviously, he was referring to the public debt of 119 billion Maldivian Rufiyaa (MVR), equal to US $630.7 million, he inherited on assuming office. Maldives had taken US$ 1.4 million loan from India’s Exim Bank. Together with this, Maldives owed India 6.2 billion MVR equal to US$ 401 million.

So has the president had a change of heart in mending his fractured relationship with India? Not at all if we go by his record since assuming office. Ever since he was elected, every action of his has been to downgrade the umbilical relations existing between India and Maldives, nurtured by his predecessor President Solih. As president, the first thing Muizzu did was to put a hold on “execution of bilateral conventions and agreements” with India. He gave India a deadline of March 15 to withdraw its “foreign troops” who were working under the orders of the Maldives Defence Force (MDF) to man surveillance aircraft and helicopters for casualty evacuation. India complied with it, with its civilians replacing the “foreign troops”. The president had demanded that by May 10, all Indian personnel manning the three Indian aviation platforms should leave the country

Muizzu preferred China, rather than India which has been Maldives’ biggest development and defence partner, to make his first state visit in January. Describing China as Maldives’ “closest development partner”, he committed to implement the stalled Free Trade Agreement with it. He agreed to elevate Maldives-China ties to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership” (CSCP), a status on par with China’s ties with ASEAN countries.

The visiting president went on to sign 20 MoUs to trigger cooperation between the two governments covering a wide range of areas.

Weeks after the president’s return from China, the two countries formally signed a military pact. Maldives Minister of Defence Ghassan Maumoon and Major General Zhang Baoqun, Deputy Director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of PRC, exchanged the documents. Though details of the pact are not known, according to Maldivian media, under the pact, China will provide free military assistance to Maldives. A parallel agreement was also signed concerning the visit of Xiang Yang Hong 3, a Chinese research vessel, which was seen in Maldivian waters. This is likely to help Chinese maritime research vessels freely enter Arabian Sea waters. This contrasts with Maldives holding in abeyance its agreement with India on hydrographic survey. These actions send a clear signal that China, rather than India, will be the pivot of Maldives strategic security.

On March 15, Muizzu inaugurated the MNDF Air Corps, the newly formed air arm, at Maafaru International Airport in the Noonu Atoll. The Air Corps is armed with Bayratkar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) procured from Turkey at an estimated cost of $37 million. Who provided the credit for the UAV procurement to cash-strapped Maldives is a question yet to be answered. The UAV will be used to carry out surveillance of Maldives waters, a job done so far by aircraft gifted by India.

Speaking on the occasion, Muizzu said Maldives was capable of monitoring 9,00,000 sq km of its jurisdiction. As an independent and sovereign nation, surveillance of the country’s jurisdiction should not concern any external parties. Apparently hinting at India, he explained that this would not impede Maldives’ close relations with all countries. He added that the government would double the capacity of the Coast Guard, expand the Air Corps fleet and enhance land-based vehicles and platforms. He further affirmed the importance of Maldives navigating its course towards self-reliance and remaining an independent and sovereign nation in “every aspect”.

Apparently, China’s hand-holding is giving confidence to the Maldivian president to go ahead with the decoupling of close relations with India and overhauling the national security apparatus. Maldives is not under any strategic compulsion from India to give up his intricately crafted strategy to keep it at bay.

His compulsions now are more internal and political. Politically, Muizzu’s popularity will be tested when the Maldivian parliamentary elections take place on April 21, 2024. Muizzu will have to make good on three focus areas he had referred to in his inaugural address last year. These are: overcoming the country’s highest ever public debt of 119 billion Maldivian Rufiyaa (MVR) equal to US$630.7 million; complete the mega project of expanding Velana international airport as part of “emergency treatment” for the economy to generate revenue, and lastly, overcoming the housing shortage that is causing societal complexities.

India can help by deferring the debt servicing of over $400 million in loans. As regards housing, India’s state-owned National Buildings Construction Co is involved in developing 4,000 social housing units as per the loan agreement signed in 2021 with Exim Bank’s buyers’ credit of about $228 million. This needs to be speeded up. Apparently, Muizzu is toning down his rhetoric as he needs India to help him politically in the parliamentary election.

India has understood from Muizzu’s speeches that he wants to be an active partner in Indian Ocean security. He wants Maldives to be treated on par with big powers like India and China and contribute to the discussions and discourses here. Ever since he came to power, India has asked Male to “collaborate closely to address shared challenges confronting our region”. At one of the briefings, a Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson explained: “The focus of our partnership with Maldives has always been on capacity building and working together to address our shared challenges and priorities…including security challenges and priorities.”

So, India has gone ahead strengthening its strategic presence around Maldives. It inaugurated a new naval air base INS Jatayu on Minicoy Island in Lakshadweep Islands. This is a second base in the island chain nearest to Maldives and it will help India keep a close surveillance in the region. India has recently strengthened security relations with Mauritius by opening an airstrip and a jetty on Aglega, a set of two islands on western Indian Ocean. They are located 1,100 km from Port Louis (Mauritius) and 2,500 km south west of Male. Though it is not a military base, it will enable India to operate the Navy’s P81 maritime reconnaissance aircraft, adding military muscle in this part of the Indian Ocean. The sea around is thick with Indian naval warships keeping vigil against piracy and Houthi attacks on the Red Sea. 

Muizzu is hoping for India to help him out politically as he heads for a parliamentary election. India is tied down with its own election priorities and may not be in a hurry to act. India is probably waiting before acting, but be ready to act if it is necessary. In other words, “keep the powder dry” as far as Maldives is concerned. 

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies 

India’s AGNI-5 missile: Questions & Answers

Col R Hariharan

India’s successful testing of Agni-5 missile with multiple warheads is one more step forward in its quest for strategic autonomy. India’s demonstrated capability of the intercontinental missile has national, regional and global security implications as it shares land borders with two nuclear neighbours. Nationally, it adds to Indi’s confidence in handling its nuclear neighbours from a position of power. Regionally, it strengthens India to strategically dominate the Indian Ocean waters, where China has emerged as a big challenger of Indian influence in the neighbourhood. Strategically it adds to India’s image as a responsible nuclear power on par with the big five powers enjoying veto power in the UN Security Council.

1.    A lot is being said about the range, the multiple warheads, and the cost-efficiency of the Agni-5 missile. If you were to highlight any particular feature of the missile which in your opinion would prove to be a game-changer for the nation’s nuclear and military paraphernalia, what would it be?

The Agni-5 missile’s Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) capability to simultaneously engage multiple targets hundreds of miles apart, makes it a game changer in the Indo-Pacific strategic scene. It comes at a time when China is enhancing its presence among India’s neighbours – Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Its range is said to be 5000 km making it an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), though some reports suggest it can be increased to 8000 km, making it an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Its MIRV capability is said to be engage six targets in a single launch. It also enables the use of decoys. With two nuclear neighbours, the Agni-5 MIRV adds to India’s strategic nuclear capability. India’s development of the missile with its own MIRV technology elevates it into the exclusive group of countries that have mastered MIRV technology – the US, UK, France, Russia and China. This sends a strategic signal to the rest of the world of India’s increased research and technological capability to develop its nuclear capable weapon systems.

 

2.    India has always upheld its ‘no first use’ policy but the MIRV technology has been claimed to be mostly useful for first strikes. Do you see such a contradiction changing India’s nuclear doctrine?

There are three key components of India’s nuclear doctrine. These are No First Use (NFU) policy. According to this policy nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on India’s territory or on Indian forces anywhere. The second aspect is Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD) which implies maintaining sufficient nuclear arsenal for deterrence to deter potential adversaries while avoiding an arms buildup. The third aspect is civilian control. Only the Prime Minister holds the authority to order the use of a nuclear weapon. This enhances responsible decision making in the use of nuclear weapons. Agni-5 MIRV missile strengthens India’s NFU because it forces nations who do not subscribe to NFU, to consider the disastrous consequences of using nuclear weapon first.  

3.    How do you see the development of the Agni-5 impacting India-China relations and broader Asia-Pacific dynamics?

India’s successful test of the Agni-5 MIRV missile sends strong signal to China at three levels – strategically, regionally and bilaterally. Strategically, it signals India’s determination to strengthen its strategic capabilities and resolve to protect its national interests. The MIRV missile enhances India’s nuclear deterrence by gaining the ability to deliver multiple warheads, discouraging any aggressive action. The missile’s canister-launch system enables quick transportation, less maintenance and immediate response, strengthening its second strike capability. Thus Agni-5 MIRV provides India the ability to counterbalance China’s capability using missiles like Dong Feng -41. It was not surprising to see a Chinese spy ship, less than 480 km from the test site off the coast of Vishakapatnam.

Regionally, it could lead to increased Chinese efforts to further enlarge its foot hold in Maldives and Sri Lanka, to improve its cyberwarfare capability and eaves drop of India’s military moves. We can expect China to help Pakistan develop further its MIRV capability using India-specific Ababeel medium range ballistic missile, last tested on October 18, 2023.

 

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 [RH1]

India’s Agni-5 missile: Deterrence against China or is New Delhi thinking something bigger?

 The testing of the MIRV-equipped missile that can carry a number of warheads and hit multiple targets is being seen as a game-changer in South Asian arms race but not all experts are in agreement.

By Twinkle Roy / 21 March 2024 / https://www.indiaweekly.biz/indias-agni-5-missile-deterrence-against-china-or-is-new-delhi-thinking-something-bigger/ 

ON March 11, India successfully conducted the first test flight of the Agni-5 missile off the coast in its eastern state of Odisha as part of ‘Mission Divyastra’, which is considered a key milestone in its nuclear capability. Developed by India’s Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO), the missile, which takes its name from the Sanskrit name for “fire”, marks a significant uptick in India’s military might since it is capable of carrying a number of warheads and hitting many targets. The warheads could also feature decoys to fox enemy’s ballistic missile programmes.

The special capacity of Agni-5 is enhanced by the MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle) technology that enables loading of multiple warheads on a single missile delivery system and programming the to strike different targets.

Agni missiles have been a key asset of India’s armed forces for decades and the addition of the latest equipped with the MIRV technology makes the arsenal more lethal, particularly in a neighbourhood which is far from peaceful.

The Agni-5 missile, which has been successfully tested several times since 2012, also has a range of more than 5,000 kilometres, making it a long-range one and giving India the capacity to reach most parts of China, a country which is almost three times its size.

India, in fact, has for the first time acknowledged to have successfully developed the MIRV technology that was developed in the 1960s, and is in possession of only a few countries today.

India Weekly spoke to experts to understand the difference Agni-5 missile could make when it comes to the power game in the Asian theatre, particularly between countries such as India, China and Pakistan, which has also been trying to master the MIRV technology.

Retired commodore R Seshadri Vasan, director general of Chennai Centre for China Studies in Chennai in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, told India Weekly while highlighting one of the special features of the MIRV technology that it further augments India’s No First Use response structures, meaning strengthening its second-strike capability from sea, air and land forces from several platforms and dispersed locations.

Strategic security and intelligence analyst Col Ramani Hariharan was of the opinion that the Agni-5 missile’s MIRV feature makes it a game-changer in the Indo-Pacific strategic context.

“While the missile’s 5,000-km range makes it an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), some reports suggest that it can be increased to 8,000 kms which makes it an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). Along with it, the MIRV feature which is said to engage six targets in a single launch and the use of decoys makes Agni-5 a key contributor to India’s enhanced strategic nuclear capability,” he said.

Dinshaw Mistry, a professor of International Affairs and Asian Studies at the University of Cincinnati, USA, and an authority on security studies and Asian security, also agreed that the missile’s range gives India a strategic advantage vis-à-vis China.

‘Missile enables India to strike major China cities’

“One key feature of the missile is its range of approximately 5,000 kilometers, which can increase with lighter payloads. This range enables India to strike all major cities in China from launch sites that are far from the border regions and therefore somewhat more secure from strikes by China and Pakistan,” he told the publication, adding, “Another feature is its multiple warheads, which enables India to use fewer missiles to deliver more warheads to more targets.”

However, Mistry was not convinced that the MIRV technology, which is more useful for nuclear first strike policy, would alone alter India’s nuclear doctrine that doesn’t believe in first strike. Stressing that the technology is as useful for retaliatory second strikes, Mistry said, “MIRV technology alone is not the decisive factor in decisions to change doctrines. Other security and technological considerations related to enhancing the credibility and implementation of deterrence are also significant.”

That Agni-5 can cover a bigger distance could have a major international ramification, not just by means of enhancing India’s nuclear capability but by revolutionizing the pattern of nuclear capability for developing nations. It is often financially challenging for such nations to acquire ICBMs which are very expensive and they have a more viable option in developing long-range missiles with multiple warheads.

India has already exhibited before the world its capacity to conduct distant space missions on a moderate budget. Just replicating the same in the realm of nuclear capability would add more to its claim to potential leadership in the Global South.

Coming back to India’s Agni-5 test flight, it also puts the focus on the pillars of its nuclear doctrine and how the missile makes it more robust. According to Col Hariharan, the weapon adds strength to India’s NFU policy since by possessing a deadly missile such as Agni-5, it forces its foes who do not subscribe to NFU to keep in mind the potentially disastrous consequences of making use of the nuclear weapons first.

Similarly, Agni-5 also makes the second pillar of India’s nuclear doctrine – minimum credible deterrence (CMD) – strong. It implies maintaining sufficient nuclear arsenal to deter potential adversaries while avoiding an arms buildup. By developing something like Agni-5, India also makes its nuclear arsenal potent enough to create a deterrence.

But to what extent can Agni-5 succeed in deterring nuclear adversaries such as China and Pakistan?

There were reports that Beijing dispatched a research vessel near the Indian coasts to keep a watch on the test flight while Pakistan accused India of not following the three-day timeline stipulated in Article 2 of the Agreement on Pre-notification of Flight Testing of Ballistic Missiles signed between the two countries in 2005.

According to Commodore Vasan, “China has no choice but to acknowledge India’s growing prowess in multiple military domains. By increasing engagement with like-minded nations, India has managed to apply pressure on China. Beijing will rework its options based on evaluation of India’s constant enhancements in its military arsenal and preparedness.”

‘India still far from matching China’

Mistry, however, believes that Agni-5 will rather have a symbolic impact on the regional arms race with China.

“Agni-5 will have a symbolic impact of helping India close the gap with China in terms of their nuclear forces. But even with the Agni-5, India is far from matching China since China has a much greater number and wider set of platforms for nuclear delivery than India,” he said.

John Erath, senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Washington DC, USA, believes that diplomacy is still the best option available.

He told India Weekly that Beijing pretends not to be worried about the Indian deterrence, preferring to “justify” its unconstrained nuclear buildup by citing greater US (and Russian) numbers.

“It is significant, however, that the great majority of Chinese missiles cannot reach U.S. territory but can strike most of India. An India-China arms race is in no one’s interest, especially since both parties already have the capability to deter each other. In the end, deploying new and improved weapons systems is no substitute for diplomacy and conflict prevention,” he said.

On the question of India’s NFU policy and how it aligns with the MIRV technology, Erath said an NFU stance is only effective insofar as it is credible and building nuclear warfighting capabilities could well undermine that credibility.

Col Hariharan gives a more detailed observation on how India’s testing of Agni-5 could challenge China. He said the development will send a strong signal to China at various levels such as strategic and regional..

“Strategically, it signals India’s determination to strengthen its strategic capabilities and resolve to protect its national interests. The MIRV missile enhances India’s nuclear deterrence by gaining the ability to deliver multiple warheads, discouraging any aggressive action.

“The missile’s canister-launch system enables quick transportation, less maintenance and immediate response, strengthening its second-strike capability. Thus, Agni-5 MIRV provides India the ability to counterbalance China’s capability using missiles like Dong Feng -41. It was not surprising to see a Chinese spy ship, less than 480 km from the test site off the coast of Visakhapatnam,” he told India Weekly.

He also cautioned that Beijing would now make efforts to enlarge its foothold in some of India’s smaller neighbours in South Asia, such as the Maldives, with which New Delhi is currently having a tense relation, and Sri Lanka. According to the security expert, China could do this to improve its cyberwarfare capability and eavesdrop on India’s military moves.

“We can also expect China to help Pakistan develop further its MIRV capability using India-specific Ababeel medium range ballistic missile, last tested on October 18, 2023,” he added.

Erath, however, feels that India already has missiles that can strike potential adversaries adequately for deterrence, and therefore the increased capabilities are “somewhat redundant”. He warned that such capabilities would be significant only in a nuclear warfighting scenario, and a nuclear war is one everyone loses.

There is little doubt that India is thinking bigger with the Agni-5 missile. But could an ambition of deterring the potential adversaries with an MIRV-equipped weapon system also reduce the credibility of its NFU policy?

It would also be interesting to see the next move that China contemplates after India’s testing of its high-profile missile. The testing has come at a time when China is trying to increase its presence among India’s smaller neighbours and trigger a competition to broaden strategic influence, which gives a signal that the two nuclear-armed neighbours are in no mood to relax.

However, a silver lining can be seen in various ways through which India can benefit from leveraging such an existing technology and the cost-effective way of its implementation. Leaving out the more sinister ideas of arms race and potential destruction, the purely technological advancement that allows India to upgrade its missile system can be handy in pursuing welfare goals.

Sri Lanka: Getting Ready for Presidential Election

Col R Hariharan

 

Sri Lanka Perspectives February 2024 | South Asia Security Trends| March 2024 | https://www.security-risks.com/post/sri-lanka-getting-ready-for-presidential-election  

President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s tenure will be over by November 2024. Constitution Section 31.3 stipulates that “not less than one month and not more than two months before the expiration of the term of office of the President” the notification for the presidential poll must be issued. In the present context the deadline for election notification is due before September 4, 2024. Barring some unforeseen calamity, the presidential elections will have to be held before October 2024.

However, President Wickremesinghe presenting his policy statement at the opening of the fifth session of parliament on February 7 made no reference to the presidential election. His address highlighted the achievements in stabilisation of the economy with the implementation of reforms, under his watch. There was a significant turnaround of the country’s economy, indicated by the 1.6% growth in the third quarter of 2023, after negative growth in the past six consecutive quarters in 2022. There was a 130% growth in tax registrations; major state-owned enterprises bounced back with a profit of Rs 313 billion by September 2023 after suffering a loss of Rs 745 billion by end September 2022. The tourism sector was surging back with 200,000 arrivals in January 2024 and was expected to close the year with 5 million tourist arrivals.

The policy speech full of nuggets of achievement under his watch, may well be a forerunner of his campaign for the presidential election. Political leaders are always suspicious of Wickremesinghe’s astute moves and try to read between the lines. Chief whip Lakshman Kiriella, perhaps reading the political tea leaves, saw “a plan to have the presidential election put off making use of the civil society as a cat’s paw.” Perhaps he had in mind former speaker Karu Jayasuriya led National Movement for Social Justice which has initiated discussion on scrapping the executive presidency, though it was against postponing the election. Anyway, this triggered doubts afresh about Wickremesinghe’s intentions on the presidential election.

 

In October 2023, when he appointed the Presidential Committee to examine all existing election law and regulations and make necessary recommendations for amendments to election laws “to suit current” situation, many saw it as a ploy to delay parliamentary elections due in 2025. Abolition of executive presidency and the proportional voting system are hardy perennials when politicians talk of constitutional reforms. Their fear is the Committee may recommend some reforms to the constitution, delaying the general election.

 

So, when three former presidents Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena came out in support of the abolition of executive presidency, the issue got political traction. The ruling pro-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) led by Sajith Premadasa and the aspirant for the big-league politics National People's Power (NPP) led by the Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) are not for the abolition of executive presidency at this juncture. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), emasculated after the poor performance of Maithripala Sirisena as President, supported the proposal but opposed “any attempt by President Wickremesinghe to remain in power beyond his term.” The President’s own United National Party (UNP) is still to regain its strength after the drubbing in the last parliament elections.The Tamil polity traditionally led by the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK) is locked in leadership schism. The party leaders have shot themselves in the foot by going to court over the recently held election of  ITAK’s chairman. ITAK may not be able to assert its strength as in the past, due to internal preoccupations.

 

Though President Wickremesinghe’s own UNP could not win a single seat in parliamentary election, he is likely to be fielded as the candidate by SLPP. According to chief government whip Prasanna Ranatunga the party will decide when Basil Rajapaksa arrives in Sri Lanka shortly. He indicated that the party will have to rally round Wickremesinghe as he has managed to bring some kind of stability to the nation. More importantly, Wickremesinghe has been lending a helping hand to SLPP stalwarts in trouble. The sordid tale of scam in the procurement of substandard human intravenous immunoglobulin under the watch of Keheliya Rambukwella the then Health Minister is a case in point. When stories of the scam dogged him, he was shifted as environment minister. The arrest of the elusive and influential minister on February 2 came after widespread demand for action from media and civil society. Apparently, when the President ran out of options, the errant minister was brought to book. He is now remanded to custody till March 14. His lawyers have filed a fundamental rights petition challenging his arrest, demanding a compensation of Rs 100 million. This is only one such example among many.

 

But Rajapaksas will demand a price for SLPP support to Wickremesinghe’s candidature. The heir apparent Namal Rajapaksa has been politically active, paying his respects to the right Nikayas. His ascent in the power structure of Wickremesinghe as President is probably in the reckoning.

 

India and the US would also probably prefer Wickremesinghe’s election. India earned a lot of goodwill in Sri Lanka by lending $4 billion, when it was bankrupt and China played ducks  and drakes with its loans. President Wickremesinghe cashed in on the goodwill to invite Indian investments in a big way. Adani group has two big ticket investments in Sri Lanka – developing the West Container Terminal of Colombo Port using $553 million from the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Adani Green Energy (Sri Lanka) winning the clearance and energy permit to operate $355 million 234MW Pooneryn Wind Energy Project in Northern Province.

 

The Mint has reported that India is working on operationalizing rupee investments in Sri Lanka to boost Indian investments in the island nation. Last year, the RBI had allowed invoicing and payments for international trade with Sri Lanka in Indian rupee, easing the settlement of export and import transactions. With the introduction of UPI online transactions in Sri Lanka, Indian tourists are flocking to Sri Lanka.

 

India and Sri Lanka are working on a number of connectivity initiatives unveiled during President Wickremesinghe’s visit to New Delhi in July 2023. These initiatives include power grid linkages, a petroleum pipeline, a land bridge, capacity building in administration and a Comprehensive Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA). The ETCA deal always triggers political polemics among fringe politicians. If the goodwill India had generated during Sri Lanka’s tough times lasts, the ETCA negotiations can be finalized during 2025.

President Wickremesinghe has not been successful in fulfilling India’s insistence on enforcing in full the 13th Amendment to the Constitution to give a level of autonomy to the Tamil minority. But he has demonstrated his efforts through dialogue with Tamil politicians and holistically through initiatives like Plural Action for Conflict Transformation project in 17 districts for a duration of three years to foster reconciliation and harmony across the nation.

Probably, the US will also prefer the election of President Wickremesinghe. US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma visited Sri Lanka during the month. Sri Lanka got a pat from him for showing solidarity with US-led multinational naval initiative ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ against Houthis attacking international marine traffic in Red Sea. He announced that the US will gift a fourth Coast Guard cutter to expand its naval operations. Sri Lanka Navy has confirmed one of its ships had completed its maiden patrol in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and was returning home. The US probably appreciates Sri Lanka’s cooperation in ensuring Indo-Pacific security, particularly in refusing to allow Chinese survey ship’s entry into Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka also needs US support in international forums like UNHRC.

The problem is Wickremesinghe’s record of election defeats, probably unmatched by other frontline leaders. His re-election is likely to be challenged by SJB leader Sajith Premadasa and the dark horse Anura Kumar Dissanayake of NPP. Both the leaders are wooing army veterans to join their ranks. Sajith is also looking for former supporters of Gotabaya to join the SJB.

The Leftist leader AK Dissanayake, who rose in popularity during the Aragalaya days seems to be grooming himself for the high office with a makeover of his image. He has been meeting IMF representatives and foreign diplomats including the US ambassador. He has dropped the JVP’s signature anti-India rhetoric. AK Dissanayake was invited to India by the Indian Council of Cultural Research; during the visit he met with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and other key leaders. He also went on a trip to Gujarat and visited Anand, the home of the Amul dairy project. The Sinhala nationalist leader Patali Champika Ranawaka who has formed United Republic Front (URF) is also in the fray.  During the month of March, we can expect political parties to get in a frenzy in their quest to form winning fronts to face the election. More clarity on the fortunes of various candidates will probably emerge in the course of next two months. 

Tailpiece: The Ceylon Today has described the recent episode of the Sri Lanka’s national airline grounding an aircraft for three days to hunt out a rat as “a testament to the sorry state of affairs within the cash-strapped carrier.” The daily went on to say “to suggest that a single rodent could wreak such havoc on an aircraft, causing chaotic delays and sparking fears among investors, is nothing short of absurd…. It’s inconceivable that a modern airline, especially one with a fleet of 23 aircraft, would be brought to its knees by a rat.” The rat was found when the flight arrived from Lahore in Pakistan, is a matter of detail.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]