Col R Hariharan
Sri Lanka
Perspectives February 2024 | South Asia Security Trends| March 2024 | https://www.security-risks.com/post/sri-lanka-getting-ready-for-presidential-election
President Ranil
Wickremesinghe’s tenure will be over by November 2024. Constitution Section
31.3 stipulates that “not less than one month and not more than two months
before the expiration of the term of office of the President” the notification
for the presidential poll must be issued. In the present context the deadline
for election notification is due before September 4, 2024. Barring some
unforeseen calamity, the presidential elections will have to be held before
October 2024.
However, President
Wickremesinghe presenting his policy statement at the opening of the fifth
session of parliament on February 7 made no reference to the presidential
election. His address highlighted the achievements in stabilisation of the
economy with the implementation of reforms, under his watch. There was a
significant turnaround of the country’s economy, indicated by the 1.6% growth
in the third quarter of 2023, after negative growth in the past six consecutive
quarters in 2022. There was a 130% growth in tax registrations; major
state-owned enterprises bounced back with a profit of Rs 313 billion by
September 2023 after suffering a loss of Rs 745 billion by end September 2022.
The tourism sector was surging back with 200,000 arrivals in January 2024 and
was expected to close the year with 5 million tourist arrivals.
The policy speech
full of nuggets of achievement under his watch, may well be a forerunner of his
campaign for the presidential election. Political leaders are always suspicious
of Wickremesinghe’s astute moves and try to read between the lines. Chief whip
Lakshman Kiriella, perhaps reading the political tea leaves, saw “a plan to
have the presidential election put off making use of the civil society as a
cat’s paw.” Perhaps he had in mind former speaker Karu Jayasuriya led National
Movement for Social Justice which has initiated discussion on scrapping the
executive presidency, though it was against postponing the election. Anyway,
this triggered doubts afresh about Wickremesinghe’s intentions on the
presidential election.
In October 2023,
when he appointed the Presidential Committee to examine all existing election
law and regulations and make necessary recommendations for amendments to
election laws “to suit current” situation, many saw it as a ploy to delay
parliamentary elections due in 2025. Abolition of executive presidency and the
proportional voting system are hardy perennials when politicians talk of
constitutional reforms. Their fear is the Committee may recommend some reforms
to the constitution, delaying the general election.
So, when three
former presidents Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala
Sirisena came out in support of the abolition of executive presidency, the
issue got political traction. The ruling pro-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka Podujana
Peramuna (SLPP), the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) led by Sajith
Premadasa and the aspirant for the big-league politics National People's Power
(NPP) led by the Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP) are not for the abolition of
executive presidency at this juncture. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP),
emasculated after the poor performance of Maithripala Sirisena as President,
supported the proposal but opposed “any attempt by President Wickremesinghe to
remain in power beyond his term.” The President’s own United National Party
(UNP) is still to regain its strength after the drubbing in the last parliament
elections.The Tamil polity traditionally led by the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi
(ITAK) is locked in leadership schism. The party leaders have shot themselves in
the foot by going to court over the recently held election of ITAK’s
chairman. ITAK may not be able to assert its strength as in the past, due to
internal preoccupations.
Though President
Wickremesinghe’s own UNP could not win a single seat in parliamentary election,
he is likely to be fielded as the candidate by SLPP. According to chief
government whip Prasanna Ranatunga the party will decide when Basil Rajapaksa
arrives in Sri Lanka shortly. He indicated that the party will have to rally
round Wickremesinghe as he has managed to bring some kind of stability to the
nation. More importantly, Wickremesinghe has been lending a helping hand to
SLPP stalwarts in trouble. The sordid tale of scam in the procurement of
substandard human intravenous immunoglobulin under the watch of Keheliya
Rambukwella the then Health Minister is a case in point. When stories of the
scam dogged him, he was shifted as environment minister. The arrest of the
elusive and influential minister on February 2 came after widespread demand for
action from media and civil society. Apparently, when the President ran out of
options, the errant minister was brought to book. He is now remanded to custody
till March 14. His lawyers have filed a fundamental rights petition challenging
his arrest, demanding a compensation of Rs 100 million. This is only one such
example among many.
But Rajapaksas
will demand a price for SLPP support to Wickremesinghe’s candidature. The heir
apparent Namal Rajapaksa has been politically active, paying his respects to
the right Nikayas. His ascent in the power structure of Wickremesinghe as
President is probably in the reckoning.
India and the US
would also probably prefer Wickremesinghe’s election. India earned a lot of
goodwill in Sri Lanka by lending $4 billion, when it was bankrupt and China
played ducks and drakes with its loans. President Wickremesinghe cashed
in on the goodwill to invite Indian investments in a big way. Adani group has
two big ticket investments in Sri Lanka – developing the West Container
Terminal of Colombo Port using $553 million from the US Development Finance
Corporation (DFC) and the Adani Green Energy (Sri Lanka) winning the clearance
and energy permit to operate $355 million 234MW Pooneryn Wind Energy Project in
Northern Province.
The Mint has
reported that India is working on operationalizing rupee investments in Sri
Lanka to boost Indian investments in the island nation. Last year, the RBI had
allowed invoicing and payments for international trade with Sri Lanka in Indian
rupee, easing the settlement of export and import transactions. With the
introduction of UPI online transactions in Sri Lanka, Indian tourists are
flocking to Sri Lanka.
India and Sri
Lanka are working on a number of connectivity initiatives unveiled during
President Wickremesinghe’s visit to New Delhi in July 2023. These initiatives
include power grid linkages, a petroleum pipeline, a land bridge, capacity
building in administration and a Comprehensive Economic and Technology
Cooperation Agreement (ETCA). The ETCA deal always triggers political polemics
among fringe politicians. If the goodwill India had generated during Sri
Lanka’s tough times lasts, the ETCA negotiations can be finalized during 2025.
President
Wickremesinghe has not been successful in fulfilling India’s insistence on
enforcing in full the 13th Amendment to the Constitution to give a level of
autonomy to the Tamil minority. But he has demonstrated his efforts through
dialogue with Tamil politicians and holistically through initiatives like
Plural Action for Conflict Transformation project in 17 districts for a
duration of three years to foster reconciliation and harmony across the nation.
Probably, the US
will also prefer the election of President Wickremesinghe. US Deputy Secretary
of State Richard Verma visited Sri Lanka during the month. Sri Lanka got a pat
from him for showing solidarity with US-led multinational naval initiative ‘Operation
Prosperity Guardian’ against Houthis attacking international marine traffic in
Red Sea. He announced that the US will gift a fourth Coast Guard cutter to
expand its naval operations. Sri Lanka Navy has confirmed one of its ships had
completed its maiden patrol in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and was returning home.
The US probably appreciates Sri Lanka’s cooperation in ensuring Indo-Pacific
security, particularly in refusing to allow Chinese survey ship’s entry into
Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka also needs US support in international forums like UNHRC.
The problem is
Wickremesinghe’s record of election defeats, probably unmatched by other
frontline leaders. His re-election is likely to be challenged by SJB leader
Sajith Premadasa and the dark horse Anura Kumar Dissanayake of NPP. Both the
leaders are wooing army veterans to join their ranks. Sajith is also looking
for former supporters of Gotabaya to join the SJB.
The Leftist leader
AK Dissanayake, who rose in popularity during the Aragalaya days seems to be
grooming himself for the high office with a makeover of his image. He has been
meeting IMF representatives and foreign diplomats including the US ambassador. He
has dropped the JVP’s signature anti-India rhetoric. AK Dissanayake was invited
to India by the Indian Council of Cultural Research; during the visit he met
with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, National Security Adviser Ajit
Doval and other key leaders. He also went on a trip to Gujarat and visited
Anand, the home of the Amul dairy project. The Sinhala nationalist leader
Patali Champika Ranawaka who has formed United Republic Front (URF) is also in
the fray. During the month of March, we can expect political parties to
get in a frenzy in their quest to form winning fronts to face the election.
More clarity on the fortunes of various candidates will probably emerge in the
course of next two months.
Tailpiece: The Ceylon Today has described the recent episode of the
Sri Lanka’s national airline grounding an aircraft for three days to hunt out a
rat as “a testament to the sorry state of affairs within the cash-strapped
carrier.” The daily went on to say “to suggest that a single rodent could wreak
such havoc on an aircraft, causing chaotic delays and sparking fears among
investors, is nothing short of absurd…. It’s inconceivable that a modern
airline, especially one with a fleet of 23 aircraft, would be brought to its
knees by a rat.” The rat was found when the flight arrived from Lahore in
Pakistan, is a matter of detail.
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI
specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of
the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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