Col R Hariharan
India’s successful testing of Agni-5 missile
with multiple warheads is one more step forward in its quest for strategic
autonomy. India’s demonstrated capability of the intercontinental missile has
national, regional and global security implications as it shares land borders with two nuclear neighbours. Nationally, it adds to
Indi’s confidence in handling its nuclear neighbours from a position of power.
Regionally, it strengthens India to strategically dominate the Indian Ocean
waters, where China has emerged as a big challenger of Indian influence in the
neighbourhood. Strategically it adds to India’s image as a responsible nuclear
power on par with the big five powers enjoying veto power in the UN Security
Council.
1. A lot is being said about the range, the multiple warheads, and the cost-efficiency of the Agni-5 missile. If you were to highlight any particular feature of the missile which in your opinion would prove to be a game-changer for the nation’s nuclear and military paraphernalia, what would it be?
The Agni-5
missile’s Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) capability
to simultaneously engage multiple targets hundreds of miles apart, makes it a
game changer in the Indo-Pacific strategic scene. It comes at a time when China
is enhancing its presence among India’s neighbours – Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka and Maldives. Its range is said to be 5000 km making it an intermediate
range ballistic missile (IRBM), though some reports suggest it can be increased
to 8000 km, making it an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Its MIRV
capability is said to be engage six targets in a single launch. It also enables
the use of decoys. With two nuclear neighbours, the Agni-5 MIRV adds to India’s
strategic nuclear capability. India’s development of the missile with its own
MIRV technology elevates it into the exclusive group of countries that have
mastered MIRV technology – the US, UK, France, Russia and China. This sends a
strategic signal to the rest of the world of India’s increased research and
technological capability to develop its nuclear capable weapon systems.
2. India has always upheld its ‘no first use’ policy but the MIRV technology has been claimed to be mostly useful for first strikes. Do you see such a contradiction changing India’s nuclear doctrine?
There are three key components of India’s nuclear doctrine. These are No First Use (NFU) policy. According to this policy nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on India’s territory or on Indian forces anywhere. The second aspect is Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD) which implies maintaining sufficient nuclear arsenal for deterrence to deter potential adversaries while avoiding an arms buildup. The third aspect is civilian control. Only the Prime Minister holds the authority to order the use of a nuclear weapon. This enhances responsible decision making in the use of nuclear weapons. Agni-5 MIRV missile strengthens India’s NFU because it forces nations who do not subscribe to NFU, to consider the disastrous consequences of using nuclear weapon first.
3. How do you see the development of the Agni-5 impacting
India-China relations and broader Asia-Pacific dynamics?
India’s
successful test of the Agni-5 MIRV missile sends strong signal to China at
three levels – strategically, regionally and bilaterally. Strategically, it
signals India’s determination to strengthen its strategic capabilities and
resolve to protect its national interests. The MIRV missile enhances India’s
nuclear deterrence by gaining the ability to deliver multiple warheads,
discouraging any aggressive action. The missile’s canister-launch system
enables quick transportation, less maintenance and immediate response,
strengthening its second strike capability. Thus Agni-5 MIRV provides India the
ability to counterbalance China’s capability using missiles like Dong Feng -41.
It was not surprising to see a Chinese spy ship, less than 480 km from the test
site off the coast of Vishakapatnam.
Regionally,
it could lead to increased Chinese efforts to further enlarge its foot hold in
Maldives and Sri Lanka, to improve its cyberwarfare capability and eaves drop
of India’s military moves. We can expect China to help Pakistan develop further
its MIRV capability using India-specific Ababeel medium range ballistic missile,
last tested on October 18, 2023.
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