வேலையைப் பிடுங்கிக் கொள்ளுமா ஏஐ?

 

கர்னல் ஆர் ஹரிஹரன் | அந்தி மழை | சிறப்புக் கட்டுரை மார்ச் 3, 2025  

https://www.andhimazhai.com/special-section/special-stories/will-ai-take-over-jobs

ஏ.ஐ. என்று சொல்லப்படும் செயற்கை நுண்ணறிவு (Artificial Intelligence – AI) தற்போது அதிகம் பேசு பொருளாகிவிட்டது. எளிதாக விளக்கம் கூறினால் ஏ.ஐ. என்பது இயந்திரங்கள் மனிதர்களைப் போல கற்றுக்கொள்ளவும், பகுத்தறிந்து செயல்படவும் அனுமதிக்கும் ஒரு தொழில்நுட்பமாகும். ஏ.ஐ. அமைப்புகளால் தரவைச் செயலாக்கவும், சிக்கல்களைத் தீர்க்கவும், அவற்றின் நடத்தையை மாற்றியமைக்கவும் முடியும்.

ஏ.ஐ உபயோகம். ஏற்கனவே அசுர வேகத்தில் அதிகரித்து வருவதால் அதனால் எத்தகைய தாக்கம் ஏற்படும் என்று அறிவதில் எல்லா நாடுகளும் நாட்டம் காட்டி வருகின்றன. அண்மையில் பிரதமர் நரேந்திர மோடியின் அமெரிக்கப் பயணத்தின்போது இந்தியாவும் அமெரிக்காவும் பல்வேறு ஒப்பந்தங்களில் கையொப்பம் இட்டுள்ளன. அவற்றில் முக்கியமான ஒன்று ட்ரஸ்ட் (TRUST) என்று கூறப்படும் “மூலோபாயத் தொழில் நுட்பத்தை பயன்டுத்தி உறவை மாற்றுதல்” ஒப்பந்தமாகும். இதன்படி இந்தியாவும் அமெரிக்காவும் இந்த ஆண்டு இறுதிக்குள் செயற்கை நுண்ணறிவு (ஏ.ஐ) உள்கட்டமைப்பை விரைவுபடுத்துவதற்கான வரைபடத்தைத் தயாரிக்க முடிவு செய்துள்ளன. அதன் செயலாக்கம் பாதுகாப்பு, எரி சக்தி, விண்வெளி ஆகிய துறைகளைத் தவிர உயர் தொழில் நுட்பத்துறையிலும் பெரும் மாற்றங்களை ஏற்படுத்தும் என்பதில் ஐயமில்லை. ஆகவே அடுத்த இரண்டு ஆண்டுகளில் பல்வேறு துறைகளின் செயல்முறைகளில் மாற்றங்களை எதிர்பார்க்கலாம்.

இதனால் தற்போதைய வேலைகளில் பெரும் மாற்றம் ஏற்படும் என்று எதிர்பார்க்கப்படுகிறது. அதனால் உலக அளவில் வேலை வாய்ப்பில் எத்தகைய மாற்றம் ஏற்படும் என்பதை அனுமானிக்க கடந்த ஜனவரி 7 ஆம் தேதி உலக பொருளாதார மன்றம் (World Economic Forum) வேலைகளின் எதிர்கால அறிக்கை: 2025 (Future of Jobs report 2025) என்ற தலைப்பில் ஓர் அறிக்கையை வெளியிட்டுள்ளது. இந்த அறிக்கை உலகில் உள்ள 22 தொழில்கள் சார்ந்த 1000-க்கும் மேற்பட்ட நிறுவனங்களை ஆய்வு செய்த பிறகு தயார் செய்யப்பட்டது.

இந்த அறிக்கையில் 2030 ஆம் ஆண்டுக்குள் உலகில் வேகமாக வளர்ந்து வரும் மற்றும் குறைந்து வரும் வேலைத் துறைகளின் பட்டியல்கள் உள்ளன. இவை வரும் ஆண்டுகளில் உலக சந்தையின் பல்வேறு தொழில்களில் வேலைகளின் போக்குகள் மற்றும் அவற்றில் ஏற்படக்கூடிய தாக்கத்தையும் விவரிக்கின்றன. மக்கள்தொகை மாற்றங்கள், புவிசார் அரசியல் மோதல்கள் இதில் பெரும் பங்கு வகிக்கின்றன. வரும் ஆண்டுகளில் எந்தெந்த தொழில்கள் ஆதிக்கம் செலுத்தும் என்பது குறித்து சமூக ஊடகங்களில் ஏராளமான பதிவுகளை நீங்கள் பார்த்திருக்கலாம். செயற்கை நுண்ணறிவு வேலை வாய்ப்பில் எத்தகைய தாக்கத்தை ஏற்படுத்தும் என்பதும் பரபரப்பாக விவாதிக்கப்படுகிறது. உ.பொ.மன்ற அறிக்கை என்ன சொல்கிறது என்று பார்க்கலாம்

முதலாவதாக, 2030 ஆம் ஆண்டுக்குள் சுமார் 170 மில்லியன் புதிய வேலைகள் உருவாக்கப்படும் என்று அறிக்கை கணித்துள்ளது. இருப்பினும், இதே கால அளவில், தோராயமாக 92 மில்லியன் பேர் வேலை இழக்க வாய்ப்புண்டு. கூட்டி கழித்துப் பார்த்தால், உலகில் 78 மில்லியன் நிகர புதிய வேலைகள் உருவாக வாய்ப்புகள் அதிகம்.

இவற்றில் ஐந்து வேலைகளில் ஆள்களுக்கான தேவைகள் சிறப்பான வளர்ச்சியைக் காணும். இதில் விவசாயிகள், விவசாயத் தொழிலாளர்கள், இலகுரக டிரக் அல்லது விநியோக சேவை ஓட்டுநர்கள், மென்பொருள் மற்றும் பயன்பாட்டு உருவாக்குனர்கள், கட்டிட வடிவமைப்பாளர்கள் மற்றும் தொழிலாளர்கள் மேலும் கடை விற்பனையாளர்கள் ஆகியவை அடங்கும்.

பல நாடுகள் மிகவும் நிலையான எதிர்காலத்திற்காக எடுத்துவரும் பசுமை முயற்சிகளால் விவசாயத் துறையில் வேலை செய்வோர் எண்ணிக்கை அதிகரிக்கும். இவற்றைத் தொடர்ந்து உணவு பதப்படுத்துதல் மற்றும் அதில் தொடர்புடைய தொழிலாளர்கள்; கார், வேன் மற்றும் மோட்டார் சைக்கிள் ஓட்டுநர்கள்; நர்சிங் நிபுணர்கள்; உணவு மற்றும் பான சேவை ஊழியர்கள்; செயல்பாட்டு மேலாளர்கள்; சமூகப் பணி மற்றும் ஆலோசனை நிபுணர்கள்; திட்ட மேலாளர்கள், பல்கலைக்கழகம் மற்றும் உயர்கல்வி ஆசிரியர்கள்; இடைநிலைக் கல்வி ஆசிரியர்கள்; மற்றும் தனிப்பட்ட பராமரிப்பு உதவியாளர்கள் இவர்களின் தேவை அதிகரிக்கும்.

பின்வரும் வேலைகள் அடுத்த பத்தாண்டுகளில் மிக வேகமாக வளரும் என்று அறிக்கை கூறுகிறது: செயற்கை நுண்ணறிவு மற்றும் பெருந்தரவுப் (Big data) புரட்சி இதன் பின்னணியில் இருக்கும். பெருந்தரவு நிபுணர்கள், நிதி தொழில்நுட்ப பொறியாளர்கள், இயந்திர கற்றல் நிபுணர்கள், மென்பொருள் மற்றும் பயன்பாட்டு உருவாக்குநர்கள் மற்றும் பாதுகாப்பு மேலாண்மை நிபுணர்கள் ஆகிய ஐந்து வேலைவாய்ப்புகள் வளரும். அதிக சம்பளம் பெறுகிறவர்களாக இவர்கள் மாறுவர்.

இதற்கு மாறாக, பல பாரம்பரிய ஆபீஸ் வேலைகள் வேகமாக குறைந்து வரும் வேலைகளின் பட்டியலில் இடம்பிடித்துள்ளன. தபால் சேவை ஊழியர்கள், வங்கி காசாளர்கள் மற்றும் உதவியாளர்கள், தரவு உள்ளீட்டு செயல்முறை ஆக்குநர், நிர்வாக உதவியாளர்கள் மற்றும் நிர்வாக செயலாளர்கள் ஆகியோர் இதில் அடங்குவார்கள். இந்த வீழ்ச்சியடைந்து வரும் போக்கால் மிகவும் பாதிக்கப்படும் மற்றொரு வேலை கிராஃபிக் டிசைனர். ஏ.ஐ உபயோகம் ஒவ்வொரு நாளும் அதன் மாயாஜாலத்தை புதிய உயரத்திற்கு உயர்த்துவதால், இந்த படைப்பு நிபுணர்களின் வேலை கடுமையான அச்சுறுத்தலுக்கு உள்ளாகியுள்ளது என்று அறிக்கை கூறுகிறது.

வேலையில் தேவைப்படும் திறன்களில் கிட்டத்தட்ட 40 சதவீத மாற்றம் ஏற்பட உள்ளது. ஏற்கனவே, 63 சதவீத முதலாளிகள் அதை தாங்கள் எதிர்கொள்ளும் முக்கியமான தடையாக குறிப்பிடுகின்றனர். ஏ.ஐ. நம் வாழ்க்கையை இருண்டதாக மாற்றிவிடும் என்று எண்ண வேண்டாம். ஏனெனில், எதிர்காலத்தில் தேவையான மற்றும் விரும்பத்தக்கதாகக் கருதப்படும் திறன்களின் பட்டியலில், முன்னணியில் இருப்பவை மனிதர்களுக்கே உரிய பின்வரும் திறன்களாகும். அதில் பகுப்பாய்வு சிந்தனை முன்னணியில் உள்ளது, அதைத் தொடர்ந்து மீள்தன்மை(resilience), நெகிழ்வுத்தன்மை(flexibility), சுறுசுறுப்பு(agility) ஆகியவை வரும் ஆண்டுகளில் தேவைப்படும் சில முக்கிய திறன்களாகும்.

மேலும் தலைமைத்துவம் மற்றும் சமூக செல்வாக்கு, படைப்பு சிந்தனை, ஊக்கம் மற்றும் சுய விழிப்புணர்வு கொண்டிருத்தல், தொழில்நுட்ப கல்வியறிவு, பச்சாதாபம் காட்டுதல், ஆர்வம், வாழ்நாள் முழுவதும் கற்றல், திறமை மேலாண்மை, சேவை நோக்குநிலை மற்றும் வாடிக்கையாளர் சேவை ஆகியவை முக்கிய திறன்களாகும். எனவே, வரும் ஆண்டுகளில் உலகளாவிய வேலை சந்தைப் புரட்சியின் ஒரு பகுதியாக இருப்பதற்கு நம்மை நாமே மேம்படுத்திக் கொள்வது தான் ஒரே வழியாகும்.

பீதி தேவையில்லை. எல்லோரும் சொல்வது போல், ஏ.ஐ உங்கள் வேலையை எடுத்துக் கொள்ளாது, ஆனால், எவ்வாறு ஏ.ஐ-யை பயன்படுத்துவது என்று தெரிந்த ஒருவர் உங்கள் வேலையை எடுத்துக்கொள்ளலாம்!

(கர்னல் ஹரிஹரன், தெற்காசிய பாதுகாப்பு விவகார வல்லுநர்)

 

Sri Lanka: AKD’s pragmatism adopts “economic democracy”

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives February 2025 | South Asia Security Trends, March 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

Marcus Tullius Cicero, Roman scholar and statesman, said “A budget should be balance, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled and the assistance for foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome became bankrupt.”

We do not know whether President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has read Cicero’s advice before presenting his maiden budget of the country for the year 2025. However, he seems to have generally kept in mind the counsel of the Roman statesman while constructing his maiden budget presented in the parliament this month. In this process, AKD seems to have opted for economic stability rather than ideology as the centre piece of budget-making.

This is understandable as the NPP government’s first-ever budget was expected to come under the scrutiny of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before releasing the third tranche of the Extended Fund Facility (EEF) worth $333 million. AKD should be happy that the IMF met on February 28 and approved the release of the third tranche. IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura, urged the government to continue the reforms, tax collections and better state energy pricing. He said “As the economy is still vulnerable, it is critical to sustain the reform momentum to ensure macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, and promote long-term inclusive growth.” He cautioned there was no room for policy errors.”

The JVP theoretician and veteran of the 1987-89 insurrection, Kumarage Don Lal Kantha, minister for agriculture, speaking in parliament went on an overdrive to explain the forced marriage of dialectics and pragmatism behind the budget making. He explained it as part of NPP economic philosophy. He called it ‘aarthika prajaathathrawadaya’ (Economic Democracy.”

Explaining its dialectics, the yesteryear revolutionary said “Thus far, our economy had been undemocratic and monopolised by a few. The uniqueness of the budget, therefore, was that for the first time, the economy aims to be democratic (inclusive); foreign investors, the government, individuals, the private sector, plantation workers, cooperative societies, public servants, and pensioners all will be stakeholders and will receive their due share. Just treatment will be meted out by the Government to all those who were previously marginalised, giving priority to the oppressed classes.”

According to AKD, the Budget addresses three main facets of the supply side of economic policy objectives: the growth of production of industry, services, and agriculture. Production must take place with the active engagement and participation of people, and the benefits and gains from production must be equitably shared across society. It envisages higher spending on education and health as well as public investment.

The budget shows an increase in the State sector salaries and wages by SRs.15,750 a month (including pensions). The minimum basic salary has been increased from Rs. 24,250 to Rs. 40,000  by including existing allowances into the basic salary.

The budget has paid attention to social welfare and healthcare also. The monthly allowance for kidney patients and people with disabilities will be increased from Rs.7,500 to Rs.10,000 and for the elderly persons the increase is from Rs.3,000 to Rs.5,000. The compensation paid for death or permanent disability in natural disasters has been increased from Rs.250,000 to Rs One million.

Overall, the budget has been widely welcomed by stakeholders. These included the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka Banks Association and Ceylon Chamber of Commerce. However, the Frontline Socialist Party (FSP), a splinter group of the JVP, has raised objections to waiving penalties of 1.5 percent to monthly interest and a 25 percent fine for tax evasion contained in the 2025 Budget Technical Notes. To qualify for the waiver, such cases will have to settle unpaid taxes from 2022–2023 within six months without penalties or interest. According to FSP leader Pubudu Jagoda, companies had evaded SRs. 243 billion from March 2023 to December 2024, with total unpaid taxes reaching SRs.1,068 billion. The FSP has asked former comrades in the government to clarify their stand on this issue. We can expect such uncomfortable questions from JVP ideologues as the AKD government progresses.  

Of course, leader of the opposition Sajith Premadasa commenting on the budget has questioned the NPP “commitment” to conduct an alternative debt sustainability analysis when they came into power than adopting oppressive IMF norms. This was not unexpected.

Squabbles on energy security

In a modern re-enactment Hanuman, the messenger of Lord Ram setting fire to Sri Lanka’s capital, on February 9 a monkey intruded into an electrical substation and played havoc with power supply on the national grid on February 9. It plunged the nation into darkness for six hours before power was restored. The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) attributed the nationwide failure to an “imbalance between generation and demand” caused by high solar power input and “low system inertia” leaving the grid “vulnerable to faults.” In simple terms, the national power infrastructure is in a poor state and needs immediate attention. But power infrastructure is only a part of the problem of energy management the country faces.

Hydropower contributes about 20 percent of Sri Lanka’s electricity generation. According to the CEB, thermal sources supply about 65 per cent, while renewable sources supply the rest. Maximum demand recorded so far is at 2,695 megawatts. In summer months when hydropower falters, thermal plants based on coal and fuel oil become the mainstay with the Norochcholai coal power plant as the largest contributor. Solar and wind power, which are variable generative systems, need a grid infrastructure when they  are integrated in centralised systems of thermal and hydro power plants. At present, Sri Lanka faces challenges of integrating renewable energy into the power grid and ensuring grid stability.

The government has set ambitious targets to generate 70 per cent of its electricity through renewable energy by 2030, and to be fully carbon-neutral by 2050.  This is where India’s role has become important for Sri Lanka’s energy security. India’s approach addresses the need for reliable, affordable and timely energy resources to meet the basic needs of Sri Lanka. Indian and Sri Lankan leaders had agreed to take steps towards the implementation of the solar power project in Sampur and continue discussion on supply of LNG from India to Sri Lanka. Establishing a high-capacity power grid connecting India and Sri Lanka is also on the cards. The two countries have also agreed to cooperate with the UAE to implement a multi-product pipeline from India to Sri Lanka to supply affordable energy. They had also agreed to jointly develop offshore wind power potential in Palk Straits, paying attention to environmental protection.

But internal and international politics in Sri Lanka seem to be at work to stymy India related projects from progressing beyond the “talking stage." There seems to be a strong anti-India (more particularly anti-Adani) force behind this.

The way Adani Green Energy Sri Lanka Limited’s 500 MW wind power project in Pooneryn and Mannar had been handled is a case in point. According to CEB, the project costing $442 million was expected to generate at least 350 MW by 2025. The company says it has already spent $5 million on the preliminaries connected with the project. The Cabinet Appointed Negotiations Committee (CANC) and the two parties negotiated a tariff of 8.26 cents/kwh. This was approved by the Cabinet on May 6, 2024. However, the CEB report stated the rate was 5.5 cents/kwh. Following this, the Cabinet revoked the agreement on tariff and appointed another CANC. On February 12, Adani Green Energy informed the Board of Investment (BOI) chairman that it was withdrawing from the project as another CANC and a Project Committee were being formed to renegotiate the project proposal.

Adani is quitting after two years after obtaining most approvals? It is time for Sri Lanka (and AKD) to find an answer if it wants to attain ambitious national goals. Otherwise, they will be mere political rhetoric.

FBI negotiator Christopher Voss says, “Successful negotiation is not about getting to 'yes'; it's about mastering 'no' and understanding what the path to an agreement is." Perhaps, AKD has to say no to detractors and even some of his trusted supporters. Can he?

Tailpiece: Health and Mass Media Minister Dr Nalinda Jayatissa told the Parliament that 14 Commissions had been appointed during the Aragalaya period, at a cost of Rs. 530.1 million. Another sum of Rs 1221 million has been spent on compensation, including payment to the “soothsayer” Gnana Akka.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info] 

Outrage Grows Over Indian Migrants In Shackles

Chained and Shackled: Deportation or Human Rights Violation?

 By Col R Hariharan | Magazine|Special| India Legal | February 10, 2025

https://indialegallive.com/magazine/outrage-grows-over-indian-migrants-in-shackles/

The recent deportation of 104 Indian illegal migrants from the United States has sparked an international outcry—not merely for the act of deportation itself, but for the brutal manner in which it was carried out. Images and reports of men handcuffed and shackled aboard a US military aircraft, transported like criminals, have fuelled criticism from human rights groups and Indian lawmakers.

The first batch of deportees, including 19 women and 13 minors, landed in Amritsar on February 5, their journey back marked by humiliation and harsh treatment. Many of them had spent between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 1 crore to undertake perilous routes through multiple countries in a desperate attempt to reach the US, only to be arrested and forcibly expelled.

The uproar reached the Indian Parliament during the Budget Session, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar acknowledging concerns over their treatment and assuring that India is engaging with US authorities to ensure basic human dignity for deportees. “We are taking this up at the highest levels,” he said, responding to opposition demands for stronger action.

Harsh US policies under scrutiny

The crackdown is part of former President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration policy, which he revived immediately after taking office for his second term. The US, home to an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants—including around 7,25,000 Indians—has intensified deportations, justifying them as national security measures. The latest deportation, labelled a “national security operation” by US authorities, saw deportees flown home aboard a C-17 military aircraft, a mode typically used for defense missions rather than human transport.

According to Title 8 of the US Code, unauthorized entry into the US is a criminal offense, and deportation follows as a legal consequence. However, the use of excessive restraints has raised alarms. The 2012 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) allow for the use of restraints during deportation flights, but rights groups argue that indiscriminate shackling of non-violent migrants is degrading and unnecessary.

India’s Response and The Bigger Question

With 487 more Indian migrants facing imminent deportation, the debate over their treatment is unlikely to fade. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to raise concerns over immigration policies when he meets President Trump during his visit to the US on February 12-13. While trade and strategic ties remain key issues, the treatment of deported Indian citizens will add another layer to diplomatic discussions.

Yet, beyond the outrage over their return, a critical question looms: Why are so many Indians risking everything to migrate illegally? The answer lies in a thriving network of human traffickers operating in states like Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, and Kerala. Exploiting desperation, these syndicates charge exorbitant sums, promising safe passage to the US and other Western nations.

If India is serious about protecting its citizens, cracking down on these illegal networks must be a priority. Preventing unsafe migration at its source is just as important as ensuring humane treatment abroad.

“Deportation is a legal process. But shackling people like criminals is an assault on human dignity.”—Amnesty International.

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

 

 

 

Sri Lanka: AKD starts 2025 with tight rope walking

 

In Sri Lanka Perspectives January 2025, Col Hariharan reflects on AKD's China visit and portends of balancing with India

South Asia Security Trends, February 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

In Brief

President Anura Kumar Dissanayake started the new year with some tight rope walking both externally and internally. It did not matter that he was following up what was contemplated earlier by his predecessors. His maiden state visit to China hogged the media space as a slew of formal agreements were signed during the visit. These included an agreement with Sinopec to build a $3.7 bn oil refinery in Hambantota and the Bank of China (BoC) and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) renewing the currency swap agreement for RMB 10 bn (equal to about $1.7 bn) for three years. These agreements will help China to strengthen its presence in Sri Lanka, particularly in the energy sector. That can make Sri Lanka's strategic balancing act with India and the US, a little more difficult.

Sri Lanka’s export earnings touched a record high figure of $16.1 bn in 2024. This has stoked AKD’s ambitions to set the export revenue target of $36 bn by 2030. Similarly, the government has raised the renewable energy target from the current 70 percent by 2030 to 100 percent.

President Dissanayake repeated his promise to abolish pensions for parliamentarians. Already a committee headed by a retired Supreme Court judge has submitted its report on perks and privileges enjoyed by politicians. It probably includes recommendations on the high cost of running mansions provided to former presidents. These moves caused a flutter among opposition politicians. Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa is already furious with the downgrading of his security detail. And the talk of huge amounts spent by the State on maintaining former presidents is making him livid. To add to his agony, the government had booked his two sons on criminal charges. Yoshitha Rajapaksa was arrested on a money laundering charge hanging fire from 2019. Namal, the national organiser of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), is facing charges of criminal misappropriation of LKR 70 million related to the Krrish Tower project. People are keenly awaiting follow up action on these cases; in the past even after filing charges, the cases never came up before the courts.

The month ended on a sour note on relations with India, when a Sri Lanka Navy sailor opened fire injuring two Indian fishermen poaching off the coast of Valvettithurai in Jaffna peninsula’s northern coast. It served as a strong reminder to both Sri Lanka and India of the unresolved issue of Tamil Nadu fishermen continuing to poach in Sri Lankan waters, regardless of government injunctions on both sides.

Comparing AKD’s visits to China and India

President Dissanayake visited China from 14-17 January 2025. The joint statement issued after his meeting with President Xi Jinping is interesting when compared with the joint statement issued after President Dissanayake’s visit to New Delhi in December 2024. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had “affirmed India’s continued commitment to support Sri Lanka in its economic stabilization efforts for its economic recovery and economic growth.” PM Modi further assured President Dissanayake that India's approach would be investment-based and grant-oriented to reduce the debt burden on Sri Lanka and to assist them in generating economic opportunities that are long-term and sustainable and will eventually contribute to growing the absolute size of the Sri Lankan economy. (Emphasis added).

In contrast, the joint statement issued in Beijing gives a glimpse of how China views its relationship with smaller countries like Sri Lanka. China focused on "mutual trust, support, respect, win-win cooperation, and common development" while reiterating "its commitment to an independent foreign policy of peace." It expressed its “firm support for Sri Lanka in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” Sri Lanka, while reaffirming this, reiterated "its commitment to an independent, non-aligned foreign policy." Sri Lanka expressed "its commitment to the one-China principle, recognizing the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government representing the whole of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory" along with strong opposition to "Taiwan independence." Sri Lanka pledged not to allow anti-China or separatist activities on its territory.

For the first time, Sri Lanka “reassured its support to China regarding its policies with Xizang (Tibet) and Xinjiang.” The explicit emphasis on Tibet and Xinjiang for the first time shows China’s anxiety in seeking reassurance from a Buddhist country like Sri Lanka. Some of the other agreements of interest signed during the visit are discussed below.

Energy security and Hambantota Oil Refinery

During AKD’s visit an agreement was signed with Sinopec Group for establishing a state-of-the art oil refinery at Hambantota. The refinery estimated to cost $ 3.7 billion, will have a capacity of 200,000 barrels daily, mainly for export. It also reflected the significance of Hambantota as a strategic economic hub for China. Opting for a high-cost oil refinery project might appear contrary to Sri Lanka’s goal of achieving energy self-sufficiency through renewable energy sources by 2030. However, it gives Sri Lanka the option to diversify its energy sources, reducing its dependence on imported refined petroleum products. It can also stimulate economic growth in the region and create jobs. Most importantly, the large-scale Chinese investment project strengthens Sri Lanka’s strategic partnership with China with potential for more investments in allied industries.

As against this, India’s approach towards Sri Lanka’s energy security is more holistic. The emphasis is on the need for reliable, affordable and timely energy resources to meet the basic needs of the people. The Indian and Sri Lankan leaders had agreed to take steps towards the implementation of the solar power project in Sampur, continue discussion on supply of LNG from India to Sri Lanka, establishing a high-capacity power grid connecting India and Sri Lanka. Both countries also agreed to cooperate with the UAE to implement a multi-product pipeline from India to Sri Lanka to supply affordable energy. They had also agreed to jointly develop offshore wind power potential in Palk Straits, paying attention to environmental protection. Both the leaders had agreed to continue with the development of Trincomalee tank farms and develop Trincomalee as a regional energy and industrial hub. 

Financial and Technical Assistance

China granted Sri Lanka RMB 500 million for Economic and Technical Cooperation. They also agreed to create an Investment and Economic Cooperation Working Group to enhance bilateral trade and encourage investments. The CBSL and the PBoC renewed their Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement in December 2024. This agreement, originally signed in 2021, allows for a currency swap facility of RMB10 billion (approximately USD 1.4 billion). The renewed agreement extends the facility for another three years. The financial cooperation agreement aims to enhance economic stability and support trade between the two countries.

As against this, India ‘s Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and CBSL entered into a bilateral currency swap agreement on July 24, 2020. This was part of the SAARC Currency Swap Framework 2019-23. Under this agreement CBSL can draw up to $400 million in multiple tranches to meet short term forex requirements. The CBSL and RBI are also discussing securing an additional $1 billion under a special swap agreement.

Chinese language and cultural exchange

Apart from promoting teaching the Chinese language in Sri Lanka, it is proposed to develop the China-Sri Lanka Joint Centre for Education and Research “to strengthen scientific and technological exchanges.” The two sides will also cooperate in areas including "youth, think tanks, sports, and the media, build upon the bond of Buddhist exchanges and sister-city exchanges." There is also reference to jointly promote tourism flows, with China encouraging Sri Lankan cities to participate in the International Tourism Alliance of Silk Road Cities (ITASRC). Since 2024, China has been promoting ITASRC to further BRI interests.

BRI and Maritime cooperation

Greater commitment for integrated development of infrastructure projects – Colombo Port City and Hambantota Port – which are expected to draw more investments and offer economic opportunities. China also wants Sri Lanka’s participation in the BRI Green Development Coalition in view of climate change. They have agreed to collaborate in disaster prevention, mitigation and emergency management and rescue. They are to negotiate a MoU on Ocean Cooperation towards a Blue Partnership for sustainable use of ocean resources. This will mean more Chinese “research ships” visiting Sri Lanka’s neighbourhood.

Security

China and Sri Lanka in their joint statement recognised “judicial, law enforcement and security cooperation as an important component of bilateral cooperation, and stand ready to jointly crack down on cross-border crimes such as telecom fraud and online gambling. China is ready to do its best to support capacity building in Sri Lanka's judicial, law enforcement and security areas and provide assistance with police supplies.” This is interesting as it may lead to the establishment of Chinese police stations in Sri Lanka. According to a Brookings report “between 2016 and 2022, four local Chinese public security bureaus established 102 overseas police service stations in 53 countries across North and South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia.

India’s security cooperation with Sri Lanka is on a different level. The New Delhi joint statement says the two countries “reaffirmed their commitment to work together in countering traditional and non-traditional threats as well as to ensure a free, open, safe and secure Indian Ocean Region. India being Sri Lanka’s closest maritime neighbour, President Disanayaka reiterated Sri Lanka’s stated position of not permitting its territory to be used in any manner inimical to the security of India as well as towards regional stability.”

The two countries agreed to explore the possibility of concluding a framework Agreement on Defence Cooperation. India had also agreed to extend assistance in providing defence platforms and assets to augment Sri Lanka’s defence capabilities with tailor made training programmes.

Enterprise support

China has agreed to continue supporting Sri Lankan tea, gems, and other enterprises. This programme “would propel exports of Sri Lankan goods.” The leader’s discussion “included various ways to push forward digital transformation, green development, and logistics to offer Sri Lanka an opportunity to introduce modernized activities within industries. During President AKD’s New Delhi visit, he expressed Sri Lanka’s interest in exploring the establishment of people-centric digitization as in India to improve governance, service delivery and social welfare. Accordingly, India agreed to help in expediting implementation of Sri Lanka's Unique Digital Identity (SLUDI) project and assist Sri Lanka to roll out Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI). India had also agreed to promote digital financial transactions by extending the use of UPI digital payments to benefit both countries.

Tailpiece: Illegal arms threat

73 T-56 firearms are reported missing from the armoury of an army camp in Polonnaruwa. Authorities have recovered 36 of them and the rest are still unaccounted for. According to the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey estimates, there are around 1.9 million illegal small arms in Sri Lanka, with the total number of small arms in the country potentially reaching 2.3 million, significantly higher than official figures of registered firearms which are much lower. This is one issue in which President AKD’s urgent attention is required amidst his official preoccupations.

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]

President Dissanayake’s agenda for 2025

 Col R Hariharan

Sri Lanka Perspectives December 2024 | South Asia Security Trends, January 2025 | https://www.security-risks.com

The reassertion of democratic polity in Sri Lanka during the year 2024 is the signal achievement of the people of the country, more than its political class. They had shown that the Aragalaya protests, which toppled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Rajapaksa clan from power, mattered in deciding the winners in both presidential and parliamentary elections. They not only elected the National People's Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (aka AKD) as President, but also gave the NPP two-thirds majority in parliament

These changes in power politics by the end of 2024 has given a new life to the country’s democracy, wilting under the burden of self-seeking politicians. People voted for the neophyte President AKD and the NPP government because they want a change from the way the mainstream parties ruled them. They had voted the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe combine to power in 2015 with similar hopes. But their hopes were shattered when the duo failed to fulfil their promises. Not only that, their endless squabbles resulted in Easter Sunday terrorist attacks.

This time the people will probably put the AKD government on probation to ensure the government meets their aspirations. The year 2024 has ended with AKD in power for barely 100 days and it is only 49 days since the parliament came into being. It is probably too early to judge the performance of the government under AKD’s leadership.

But even within this short period AKD has taken some welcome steps on both symbolic and substantive issues. Some of the actions of AKD like shunning official residence, swearing in the smallest cabinet, electing the highest number of women MPs from non- political families and giving representation in parliament to visually challenged person, were symbolic. But they reflected the liberal views of the government.

President’s action agenda 2025

President Dissanayake in his brief New Year message has spoken of  initiating “a transformative political shift, fulfilling our democratic responsibilities to build the good governance our citizens aspire to.” The primary developmental goals include eradicating rural poverty, implementing the ‘Clean Sri Lanka’ initiative, and building a digital economy.

The “Clean Sri Lanka” initiative, launched alongside the New Year, aims to uplift society to greater heights through social, environmental, and ethical revival. The program envisions a broad national effort, transcending political and communal differences, to instil attitudinal, behavioural, and qualitative changes among citizens. It focuses on improving living standards, eradicating corruption, and promoting transparency and accountability in every sector.

The initiative also includes a dedicated website and app to enhance public participation and transparency. The goal is to position Sri Lanka among the cleanest nations in the world and ensure a prosperous and beautiful life for all its citizens. This is likely to occupy immediate attention of the government so that visible changes are ushered in the country.

AKD’s agenda is likely to focus on internal issues so that the NPP performs reasonably well in local body elections in 2025. The NPP has a weak footprint on the ground unlike mainstream parties which have traditional strongholds. Issues with a long gestation period like reframing of the constitution and even abolition of executive presidency are likely to be deferred.   

This means existing foreign policy initiatives involving India, China and the US are likely to continue. It will also mean deferring controversial issues involving India like the talks on the Economic and Technology Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) to enhance economic and technological cooperation between the two countries which was resumed with 12^th round of talks in November 2023. Similarly, full implementation of 13^th Constitutional Amendment giving minority Tamils a level of autonomy, which India had been insisting on, is also likely to go down in AKD’s priority. At the same time the issue of Indian fishermen poaching in Sri Lankan waters is likely to be elevated to the government-to-government level as it can help NPP to garner votes in Northern Province in local body elections.

Other issues likely to figure in AKD’s 2025 agenda are given below.

Good governance issues:

Administrative reforms by digitisation of data to enable timely delivery of relief to citizens is likely to be given priority. To curb wasteful expenditure the government has already undertaken various measures:

·      Revising security arrangements for former presidents: Starting from January 1, 2025, the government has decided to withdraw members of the tri-forces from the security details of former presidents. Only police officers will now handle their security. The new norm based on security assessments is expected to save over SL Rs1,000 million annually. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa's security expenses were the highest at Rs 710 million spent on his protection. Similarly, STF protection will now only be provided to the President and Prime Minister.

·      Abolition of the post of Chief of Defence Staff: The AKD government has decided to abolish the Office of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) at the end of the year 2024. This decision comes as General Shavendra Silva, the current CDS, retires after 40 years of service. The CDS post was initially established to coordinate joint operations among the armed forces. However, the new government believes that the post is no longer necessary given the current security landscape, which is perhaps realistic. The AKD government has decided to employ armed forces only in military roles; this may herald the restructuring of the armed forces.

Anti-corruption drive

Since AKD came to power, the anti-corruption drive has been gingered up, resulting in several high-profile cases. The government is to appoint a committee to look for amendments in the Anti-Corruption Act passed in 2023 to block legal and technical loopholes while carrying out investigations. Here are some of the major cases being investigated:

·      Central Bank Bond Scam: This infamous case, which has been a focal point of public outrage, involves allegations of large-scale financial fraud during the final years of the previous administration. AKD has revived the investigations.

·      Ministerial Malfeasance: Whistleblower Thushan Gunawardena exposed alleged corruption involving high-ranking ministers. His revelations led to a series of investigations targeting corrupt officials.

·      Public Procurement Fraud: Several cases of corruption in public procurement processes have been uncovered, involving the misallocation of funds and resources meant for public projects.

·      Tax Evasion and Revenue Department Corruption: The IMF recommended immediate anti-corruption measures within revenue departments are likely to continue.

Drive against narcotics trafficking

In 2024, approximately 149,000 individuals were apprehended for drug related offences. During operation Yukthiya, which began in December 2023, led to the recovery of drugs worth over SL Rs 19 billion. With international tourist figures touching two million in 2024, Sri Lanka is likely to further tighten measures against narcotics trafficking with the cooperation of India during 2025. 

[Col R Hariharan VSM, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com, Website: https://col.hariharan.info]