It will also impact New Delhi’s trade, security and
infrastructure development relations with Beijing
POLITICS | 6-minute read | 30-01-2017
With
Donald Trump becoming the 45th US President, the US-China relations may enter
turbulent times, though the Chinese year of the rooster – which began on
January 28 - according to tradition signifies confidence.
True to belief, the just ended year of the monkey has proved to
be troublesome and chaotic for Beijing’s relations with Washington DC.
Trump’s noisy entry at the helm of American power, living up to
the GOP’s symbol of the elephant trampling the orderly ways of the US
government is sure to disturb China’s “harmonious world”.
President Trump has started the year of the Rooster with aggressive
confidence on all fronts to fulfil his promise to make “America great again”.
In his inaugural address, he said “from this day forward, it’s
going to be only America first, America first. Every decision on trade, on
taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American
workers and American families….We will follow two simple rules: Buy American
and hire American.”
His speeches and actions have caused unease across the globe and
more so in China and its trading community as the contours of emerging US
policy are not clear.
Jack Ma, the founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, who had met
Trump earlier this month found him “open-minded.”
Speaking at Davos 2017,
Ma said they had discussed about small business, agriculture and trade between
China and the US, with specific focus on how to create a million jobs in small
business over the next five years.
Ma said “we should
give Trump some more time…He’s willing to listen.”
However, Jack Ma address at Beijing on January 27, seemed to be
more realistic on China-US relations. He said despite an “overall optimistic”
outlook on trade between the two economic giants, conflicts “will definitely be
there.”
He warned of a big trade war between China and the US, if
conflicts between them were not dealt with properly.
China’s uncertainty about Trump’s moves on strategic front was
reflected in a recent comment of a PLA official quoted in the South China
Morning Post. He said that the US re-balancing its deployments in the
Asia-Pacific region, and its push to arm South Korea with THAAD missile defence
systems were provocative “hot spots getting closer to ignition.”
He had good reasons to be worried because during former US president
Obama’s watch, China had successfully managed to flex its military muscles to
buttress its territorial claims in the South China in the face of the US naval
power in the Asia-Pacific.
China also managed to threaten the durability of the US’
powerful strategic and trade alliances built over the years with key
Asia-Pacific powers like Japan, South Korea, Australia and ASEAN.
China has successfully lured even traditional US ally like the
Philippines to avoid confrontation over territorial dispute, pacified regional
challengers like Vietnam wooed by the US as well as imposed caution on ASEAN
countries.
This had frustrated the US under Obama’s watch as it had struggled
to come to terms with China’s unimpeded progress on other fronts of the power
game.
China was already disturbed with Trump’s actions such as taking
a congratulatory phone call from the Taiwan president soon after his election
as well as comments of his defence secretary General “Mad dog” Mattis on the
need for the US to reaffirm its commitment to Taiwan as they threaten China’s
core interests on Taiwan.
On the other hand, Trump’s call to rework US’ strategic defence
agreements with traditional allies like Japan and the NATO powers, has
introduced a a lot of uncertainty not only in the minds of US’ Pacific allies
like Japan, but also China.
Under President Xi’s leadership China’s ambitious westward bound
One Belt, One Road (OBOR) infrastructure initiative has continued to make
progress, despite concerns about economic viability and opaqueness.
The OBOR project supported by 64 nations across three continents
is helping China to shape new strategic paradigms and alignments in Central
Asia and South Asia.
These are increasingly threatening to marginalise American
influence in these regions.
In contrast, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), the US’
ambitious but controversial trade initiative to challenge China’s growth as
global economic giant has ended in limbo after the US was unable to ratify it.
China should be happy that President Trump has withdrawn from the
TPP on January 23 as it could end American plans to sign an agreement with the
TPP partners on the lines of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
(TTIP) agreement between the US and the European Union.
But Trump’s initiative to protect American industries by
slapping on new tariffs and taxes on goods from China and Mexico have also
added to China’s unease as it stands to lose the advantages it had gained from
globalization. For the time being, President Xi appears to be
awaiting the US president’s next move
as indicated by his speech at the World Economic Forum, at Davos 2017.
He spoke in vigorous defence of globalization and free trade.
Though he did not name Trump or his bid for protectionist policies, Xi compared
protectionism to “locking oneself in a dark room” while depriving light and
air.
He cautioned countries pursuing their own interests at the
expense of others.
“No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war,” he added.
President Xi said that economic globalization had become a
Pandora’s Box for many, but it was not the cause of many global problems.
For more than a decade the US and China have built strong,
multifaceted relations in many fields which bind them together.
Over the years, the two countries have mutually reinforced
investments and trade between them.
So any radical change in the US trade policy with China could
affect American business at home and abroad - as much as China.
President Xi is perhaps confident of evolving pragmatic working
relations with the US, just as many American and Chinese businessmen also seem
to think.
Trump’s emerging China policy will also impact India’s trade,
security and infrastructure development relations with China. Trump’s positive
pronouncements on the future of US-India strategic cooperation, strengthened
during the Obama days, would also be carefully watched by China.
It will also be keenly observing developments on the changes in
the US Afghanistan policy, as they have the potential to cramp China's
strategic initiative with Russia and Pakistan to bring the Taliban and
Afghanistan to the discussion table.
The plate is full for both nations to develop a working equation
on trade policies, strategic issues and other multilateral issues affecting the
fortunes of not only China and the US, but many other nations, including India.
The writer is a retired Military Intelligence
specialist on South Asia with rich experience in terrorism and insurgency
operations.
Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailO.in http://www.dailyo.in/politics/china-us-relations-donal-trump-foreign-policy-taiwan/story/1/15384.html
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