C3S Report No:
0149/2016 dated December 1, 2016
Compiled by Asma
Masood, Research officer, C3S http://www.c3sindia.org/economyandtrade/5854
The Chennai Centre for China Studies (C3S) and
National Maritime Foundation- Chennai Chapter (NMF) held two Round Table
Discussions (RTDs) from October 15-16 2016. They were led by Prof. John Garver,
Professor Emeritus , Sam Nunn School of International Affairs , Georgia
Institute of Technology. Col. R. Hariharan, Member, C3S moderated the sessions.
Prof. John Garver’s profile can be seen at this link.
The sessions focused on ‘Implication of Rise of
China’ and ‘Changing Strategic Landscape in South Asia – In the Backdrop of
Chinese Initiatives’.
Prof. Garver expressed an interest in learning what Chennai’s
strategic community perceived about India-China relations. According to him,
China-Pakistan relations are mainly driven by the Indian angle. However
China-Pakistan relations can be scarred by threat to CPEC from increasing
insurgency in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The speaker added that India is a regional
power, hence China engages with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Maldives.
India is not at the same level as China when it comes to linkages with these
countries. China believes that India “belongs” in South Asia, on the same plane
as Pakistan. China perceives U.S.A as its main rival. It is obvious as seen in
China’s launch of a space lab and its Anti-Satellite (ASAT) capabilities.
However China also views India and Japan as rivals.
Prof. John believes that India will attempt to
block China’s relations with countries like Maldives and Sri Lanka. Yet,
India is not to blame for this ‘bad blood’. The concept of blame is not
applicable in such scenarios.
On Russia-India-China relations, Prof. John
studies China’s perspective as one which has common dissatisfaction with
unipolarity of U.S.A. There is a joint opposition from Russia and China against
U.S.A’s global influence.
Nevertheless, China is not going to ally with Russia
against the US. This is because China-US relations are vital, and Beijing will
avoid any confrontation that can derail these ties. On the other hand, China
will not challenge Russia in Central Asia, as Moscow’s economic and soft powers
are very high in the region. Interestingly China fears a scenario where Russia
will defect from Beijing and join Western democracies, leading to China being
surrounded. It is similar for the Chinese view in case of Pakistan. In fact,
China feared U.S- Russia relations would enhance under Yeltsin, whereby Moscow
could have even joined NATO.
The subject of U.S.A’s strategic partnership
with India was raised. In Prof. Garver’s view, these strategic partnerships are
for U.S.A’s gain, in order to prevent China from growing the way of erstwhile
militaristic Germany and Japan. Thus Washington D.C is supporting the growth of
countries like India, Indonesia, etc. India is a multicultural and multiethnic
democracy. The Indian diaspora in U.S.A is also a vital factor in Indo-US
relations.
Prof. John Garver opined that there are Chinese
who believe that U.S.A is in decline and China is ascendant. Eventually other
countries may accommodate China. It will gain status of a pre-eminent power.
China will seek friendly cooperation via multidimensional relations with all
countries in the Indian Ocean, including India. However India will take umbrage
at China’s friendship with Sri Lanka, Mauritius, etc. Nevertheless India will
realize at a certain time that it cannot compete with China and will hence
cooperate with Beijing. This is not a policy statement but an inherent belief.
The question remains on whether India wants to accommodate a Sino-centric world
order.
Prof. Garver added that India has “too weak a
hand”. China does not need to resolve the border dispute, because according to
Beijing, it is ‘Chinese territory seized by India’.
A query was raised on whether China’s government
is capable of propelling the country to pre-eminent power status, given its
domestic governance policies. Prof. Garver replied that the Communist Party of
China (CPC) enjoys a high level of support domestically. This is so as
performance is delivered. 1.36 billion people populate the economy of China and
the government is able to extract power from these (human) resources. China
also has a blue water navy. It has a permanent ongoing presence in the Indian
Ocean since 2009. Its navy is primarily designed to defeat U.S.A in Taiwan.
China is not seeking bases in the Indian Ocean yet, except for Djibouti. This
is because Beijing needs the capability to defend them. It involves ammunition,
fuel, aircraft carriers, etc. Someday, step-by-step, China will achieve these
requirements. It is in China’s DNA to desire the status of an elite power.
A question was raised, asking if U.S.A should
continue to advise Delhi on how to tackle the rise of China, and be more proactive
in international relations. The answer according to Prof. Garver was that U.S.A
wants multiple strong powers in Asia in order to deter China against war. U.S.A
fears that China will engage in conflict like militaristic Germany had in the
world wars. Washington D.C would like to encourage growth of India’s power to
balance China’s power. There are commonalities between India and U.S.A: they
are both multicultural and democratic.
Regarding geopolitics, it is not Japan, Britain,
or France, but India which acts a great power. This is a significant factor to
be considered. U.S.A is not prepared to ‘ally’ with India. America views India
more as a friendly power. This is unlike France, which is seen by U.S.A as one
if its oldest allies. U.S.A had once rejected India’s unique Iran stance, but
pulled back because it is very understanding. It comprehends that India has its
own interests, even with reference to China. It is significant that China is
growing as a very powerful country. It population of 1.36 billion people has
immense potential. They are well educated and the number of Chinese engineers
is also high. China’s investments in science and technology are also
increasing. While China is committed to a peaceful rise, there is a danger that
a vacuum of power may come up which China can seize. The American view is that
India should step up to fill the power vacuum if any, as it is a democratic
country.
China views India as a geopolitical rival, since
the inception of the Tibet issue. India also aligns with U.S.A and Japan, and
has maritime partnerships with these countries. Prof. Garver believes that
China wants to balance India because it thinks that Delhi has a tendency
towards hegemony and recklessness, and thus must be kept in check. Besides,
China thinks that India wants to check China in South Asia and in the Indian
Ocean. This could lead to India blocking China’s friendly relations with states
such as Sri Lanka.
One way China can keep India under check is a
strong Pakistan. In fact, China does not manage alliances well, except with
Pakistan. India explains the stability of China-Pakistan relations.
Sundeep Kumar S., Research Officer, C3S pointed out that Pakistan is a bridge
to West Asia, thus explaining the true intent of China-Pakistan relations. Col.
Hariharan, Member, C3S held the view that China engages with Pakistan to
protect its overseas interests. Mr. L. V. Krishnan, Member, C3S expressed
Beijing has ties with Islamabad mainly in order to counter global terrorism and
terror rooted in Pakistan.
Prof. Garver recommended the following for
India: That Delhi should cooperate with China on important issues such as
climate change, WTO talks, etc. India should not interfere in the foreign
policy of China. India should also accommodate China in the Indian Ocean
region.
Prof. Garver’s talk was interspersed with insightful inputs from
the members of the RTDs, in response to Prof. Garver’s queries. His question on
the members’ views about China’s strategic interactions in the Indian Ocean was
met with a prism of diverse responses. According to Admiral Mohan Raman
(Retd.), until some years ago, China was looking at the Indian Ocean only to
avoid possible problems in the Straits of Malacca. The second advantage is to
enhance the economy of Western China which is not as developed as Eastern
China. China is buttressing its communication channels, like it did in Africa
(Djibouti). Beijing has made even Austalia an ‘economic slave’. If China’s
SLOCs are choked, then even countries like Australia will fell the pinch. China’s
activities depict a resurgence of the Chinese empire as in the 15th century.
Now, countries like Myanmar and Bangladesh are not only under the military
thumb but economic thumb of China.
Prof. Garver asked the forum whether it is easy
to envision China as a pre-eminent economic power in the region and the status
of India’s role in this context. Admiral Mohan Raman’s take is that despite
India not being in China’s ballpark, either financially or militarily, India is
on the right path to slowly becoming powerful in the economic, social and
military domains. The GST Bill is one example of this progress. Other countries
in the region will find that following a ‘slowcoach’ Indian model is more
acceptable than an unpredictable China.
Col. Hariharan, Member, C3S, explained that the
rise of China must be understood from the country’s deep sense of shame post
the Opium wars. It was not a naval power until recently. There is a deep sense
of nationalism in China. It wants to exit its navy’s domination [by the US] in the South China
Sea and become a trans-oceanic power. This has led to its military
modernization. The entry of China into Indian Ocean must be seen from an
overall context.
China wants to protect its interests abroad, as via the
Djibouti base. Hambantota (Sri Lanka) is an economic example. However this does
not imply the ‘string of pearls’ theory is valid, as China considers India to
be of low competency. India has a narrower perspective. It is still a very
powerful naval force in the Indian Ocean. This is not only to contain China. In
reality India wants to be a more assertive in the region just as China wants to
be a more responsible power. China is ambitious as it is ruled by a monolith
party. However it fears insecurity. On the other hand India is a democracy which
can defuse internal pressures with elections.
Col. Hariharan added that we
should not view China’s entry into the Indian Ocean as anti-Indian or anti-US
moves. The concept of Maritime Silk Road is connected to that of the One Belt
one Road, a project which was conceived in mid 20th century, when the warlord of Xinjiang
was made a general in the PLA and the province was integrated into China.
Prof. Garver’s posed a question on how India’s
interests are impinged upon by a nationalistic China which has a modernized
military. Captain Avtar Singh felt that India is going to contain China.
Admiral Mohan Raman added that this containment could be done in the military
sense, with an adversarial posture between India and China. India’s military
capabilities are being enhanced to counter China’s design on India, not just on
the border issue. The opinion of Mr. K. Subramanian, Member, C3S was that if
U.S.A has a right to protect its own interests, so does China.
Prof. John Garver asked the RTD members what
they thought of India’s role in China’s relations vis-à-vis Japan. Col.
Hariharan quoted the Chinese media report on Prime Minister Modi’s recent Japan
trip, that “India will never be a pawn of Japan.” Vithiyapathy P., Research
Officer, C3S, took a stand that China is not pleased due to good relations
between Japan and India. Sundeep Kumar S., Research Officer, C3S, expressed
that China and Japan do have high economic linkages, yet there is disconnect
between Tokyo and Beijing.
With regard to Indo-Chinese relations, Mr.
Medrik Minassian, M.Phil Scholar, Madras Christian College highlighted that we
should not forget the common player, the United States. The interests of the
United States play an influencing role in shaping the actions of the countries
of the region. This is mainly because of the U.S.A’s international position of
strength in diplomatic, economic and military fields. India and China are the
largest players in the region and see their interests clash with regard to this.
They are trying to safeguard what is their own interest and also are filling
up a vacuum that the recent decline of the United States influence has left in
the geopolitical region common to India and China.
The issue of China’s claims on Arunachal Pradesh
was discussed. Ms. Asma Masood, Research Officer, C3S, stated that India
believes in a pragmatic, peaceful approach to the problem. India should
continue its current stance of allowing dignitaries to visit Tawang. It has
already been observed in the case of Richard Verma, US Ambassador to India and
the Dalai Lama. India believes in sending such signals to China, rather than
showing a provocative or offensive force.
The RTDS were concluded with Col. Hariharan
giving the vote of thanks.
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