Sri Lanka: Some questions on President Gotabaya answered

Col R Hariharan |November 22, 2019|

Here is an edited version of my answers to a few questions raised by e-mail by a Turkish media columnist on Sri Lanka’s newly elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa:

Q 1: Is there any merit in accusations that Gotabaya was involved in human rights violations during the war against the Tamil tigers? 

There are quite a few allegations of human rights violations committed by Sri Lanka security forces and military intelligence during the Eelam War from 2006 to 2009, when the LTTE separatists were finally defeated and top leadership was eliminated. These were alleged to have been committed under the watch of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, (now elected president) who served as the defence secretary, under his elder brother President Mahinda Rajapaksa, during the Eelam war.

The offences included causing death to civilians in  safety zone by artillery fire, kidnapping and killing of journalists, causing disappearance and custodial killing of surrendered LTTE cadres and youth suspected to have links with separatists, intimidation of media persons etc. These allegations were investigated by a panel appointed by the UN Secretary General  as well as Sri Lanka government appointed commission. They had found substance in many of the allegations.

The UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) discussed the issue and held that Sri Lanka should facilitate an international panel to probe the allegations, prosecute and punish the guilty and take measures to improve accountability of government and governance. Sri Lanka had co-sponsored a resolution worded in an acceptable form to this effect at the UNHRC. However, there had been limited progress so far in implementing the resolution.   

Q 2: Do you think right now Sri Lanka needs a hawkish politician like Gotabaya? 

Gotabaya is not a politician but a retired Lt Col of the army. He is considered as an action oriented leader with a record of achievements, who does not hesitate to bend rules to achieve results.

Only after his brother was defeated in 2014 presidential election, he started taking active part in politics through Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, a party floated by admirers of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. Public lost their faith in the government and incumbent President Sirisena when they failed to stop the Jihadi terroists carried out suicide attacks on churches on Easter Day April 21, despite the government getting advance information from India. This exposed the functional paralysis of the government due to continued schism between President Sirisena and PM Wickremesingh, after the President made an abortive attempt to remove the PM in October 2018. Gotabaya is considered as an architect of the victory in 2009 Eelam war, which had earned him nation-wide popularity. Evidently majority of Sri Lanka people have voted him to power because they felt he was the man of the hour to lead the country to ensure stability and security. 

Q 3: Is Sri Lanka facing a security threat today like it did a decade back?

A decade ago, after Tamil Tiger separatists were defeated, Sri Lanka did not face Islamist terrorist threat as it was mostly confined to West Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. However, thanks to the IS' successful use of social media seem to have impacted some of the young Sri Lankans working in South Asia and Gulf countries where large number of Sri Lankans work. After the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks by some of them, Sri Lanka's terrorist threat potential has increased. The attacks have whipped up a feeling insecurity among the people and dislocated the already troubled relationship between ethnic communities, particularly Muslims. Buddhist fringe elements used the situation to find increasing space in politics and society.  

Apart from this, Sri Lanka has become a strategic pivot for China's BRI expansion and assertion of its military and economic power in Indian Ocean region (IOR). This has become a big challenge for India as China has whittled down Indian influence in Sri Lanka and IOR. Expansion of China's strategic reach in Indo-Pacific has become a major concern for the US and its allies. India has responded to these developments by joining the Quadrilateral security group. So Sri Lankan security is likely to face of pulls and pressures of these strategic developments in coming years. 

Q 4: Do you think Gotabaya's election victory has once again showed a deep ethnic and sectarian divide in the Sri Lanka society?

The continued ethnic and sectarian divide reflects the failure of Sri Lanka leadership to implement a time-bound holistic plan and carry out structural changes to create of confidence between Sinhala, Tamil and Muslim population. Gotabaya's victory has shown ethnic divisions are deeper than before. 

Q 5: Why do you think Gotabaya was able to survive politically despite facing international pressure and domestic controversies that he faced? 

It was not Gotabaya but his brother President Mahinda Rajapaksa's strong resistance to listen to the commiserations and counsel of international community that had resulted in continued international pressure and controversies on Sri Lanka. Most of the Sinhala majority is abhorrent to the idea of foreign intervention in what they consider as an internal process.

Q 6: Can Sri Lanka thrive economically when there is a stark division and minorities fear for their safety? 

This is a complex question. The simplistic answer would be that division between majority and minority communities in society would affect Sri Lanka economically. However, it cannot be quantified without looking at empirical data.

Q 7: Do you think there's any truth in the corruption allegations that Gotabaya has faced? 

Well, these allegations have been there for more than 6-7 years. Some are at investigation stage, while a few are in courts. Only law courts can vouch the veracity of such allegations, though some of them came about as a result investigative reporting by eminent journalists. 

Gotabaya’s victory and after:

What Sri Lanka’s election verdict means for the country’s ethnic groups, and for India  

R Hariharan in TOI Edit Page | Edit Page, politics, World | TOI

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/gotabayas-victory-and-after-what-sri-lankas-election-verdict-means-for-the-countrys-ethnic-groups-and-for-india/

The election of former defence secretary, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, as the seventh President of Sri Lanka came as no surprise to those familiar with the island’s politics. Gotabaya’s strong and assertive personality, focused on results rather than means, earned him the reputation of an authoritarian figure hated by many, particularly international media and civil society. There are a few home truths to how he managed to win 52.25% of votes polled to walk away as the victor.   

His 10.25% margin of votes over his nearest rival Sajith Premadasa showed majority of the voters – mostly Sinhalese – believed he is the man of the hour to ensure Sri Lanka’s security and stability as a united entity. For most Sinhalese, not only the rural Rajapaksa supporters but many among the middle class, he is a leader who delivered them from Tamil Tiger separatists who threatened their existence for over two decades.   

They saw the record of public service of his rival pale in comparison with Gotabaya’s results achieved during the civil war years.  Gotabaya’s pithy remark in his maiden speech after his victory: “We knew right from the start that the main factor of this election victory is the Sinhalese majority of the country” underlined his strength.   

It is true Gotabaya cuts corners to get results and in many cases trampled upon humanitarian laws during the Eelam war. There are a number of cases of corruption, cronyism, kidnapping and murder where his name is linked to alleged perpetrators. All these cases have been under investigation for over five years. In not even one major case has he been convicted. Even in the infamous White flag case where Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka accused him of ordering the killing of LTTE leaders who wanted to surrender, he was not found guilty.   

Though incumbent President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe won power with promise to clean up administration, restore rule of law, abolish executive presidency, they worked cohesively only for first two years. But after that they were working at odds with each other, due to their animosity which became visceral.   

Inner party power struggle also took its toll. President Sirisena’s abortive bid to carry out a ‘constitutional’ coup to replace Wickremesinghe with Mahinda as prime minister in October 2018, was the final straw that paralysed the government and rendered it inactive. The adverse impact was seen later when the government failed to act and prevent the jihadi terror attacks on April 21, though it had advance information.  

The terrorist attack shook the confidence of Sri Lankans in their government. Probes revealed utter failure of leadership. Sinhala fringe elements triggered a backlash adding to chaos and instability. Gotabaya’s earlier record made him the most qualified among the candidates to become president to ensure security and stability.   

Gotabaya started his presidential campaign unofficially last year after his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa’s bid to become PM failed in October. As against this, the ruling UNP under PM Wickremesinghe intentionally delayed accepting Premadasa’s bid as official candidate, because of his own ambitions. Premadasa got barely a month to launch his official campaign. So there was little time to rally forces against the Rajapaksas, as was done in the 2014 presidential election.  

Gotabaya was totally focussed on Sinhala sensitivities and did not deviate from what Mahinda had already offered to minorities. On the other hand, Premadasa compromised Sinhala votes by agreeing to favourably consider some of the Tamil demands. While he won near total minority support in the north and east he lost out on Sinhala votes, though his father Ranasinghe Premadasa came from humble beginnings and built his reputation through development projects for the poor.  

During Mahinda’s term as president he had skewed relations in favour of China, to the disadvantage of India. He had even accused India of interfering in the last presidential election, when he lost. In spite of this, Mahinda kept his India connections open. He visited New Delhi in September 2018 and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And when Modi visited Sri Lanka in June this year to show India’s solidarity after the Easter Day terrorist attacks, Mahinda discussed security related issues with him.   

Gotabaya is a pragmatic leader and can be expected to live up to his manifesto to develop security cooperation with India, as national security and fighting extremism are his priorities. But the reality is China is now entrenched in Sri Lanka more than it was in 2014, when Rajapaksa’s rule ended, and it has become the major player in Sri Lanka’s economy and strategic security. So India will have to walk the extra mile to build on positives of its relations with   Sri Lanka.   

The incoming president has to keep up good relations with India as the Chinese promoted Colombo International Financial Centre, a self-contained smart city project,  will open for business next year. To be profitable, not only this project but almost all Sri Lankan projects would need Indian participation. We can also expect the Chinese to factor this aspect while negotiating with Indian counterparts. The challenge for India would be how to take advantage of it.   

Gotabaya’s victory with a good mandate has made Sinhalese constituency strong. So Tamils have to rework their strategy afresh to find equitable space, beyond mere whipping up of ethnic passions. Till then there is not much India can do in this traditional area. 

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

Maharashtra's Jungle Book: The Tiger, Hyena, Elephant, Fox

https://www.rediff.com/news/column/maharashtras-jungle-book/20191118.htm

November 18, 2019 20:31 IST |  

The moral of the story from Maharashtra is that stripes alone don't make the Hyena a Tiger, says Colonel R Hariharan.

Illustration: Dominic Xavier/Rediff.com

In the political jungle of Maharashtra, a Tiger, Hyena, Fox and an Elephant lived side by side.

Once upon a time the Elephant was the unchallenged King of the jungle. But with aging, he started losing his strength. He lost one tusk fighting others, while other tusk was sawed off by poachers who fed him opium.

Blood sucking parasites further weakened him.

He was confined to a patch of the jungle where he can find some grazing. He kept mumbling about his years of glory when everyone feared him. 

The problem started after the Elephant ceased to be king. Tiger grew into a powerful animal. Often he would bare his teeth, sharpen his claws and roar he was the king of the jungle. 

The Hyena thought he was also a Tiger because of his stripes and tagged along with the Tiger, helped him spot the prey. Scavenging upon the Tiger's kills, the Hyena grew plump. 

The wily Fox was a survivor and wore a wolf skin coat to scare other animals. It had its own territory and protected it with its pack

The jungle started shrinking with climate change and it became difficult for the animals to live together. So they decided to elect a King periodically to rule the jungle.

The Elephant was too old and became a marginal player in jungle politics. He became resigned to his fate and lived mostly alone.   

The Tiger, helped by the Hyena, managed to be elected as the ruler. The Hyena started thinking he was also the ruler because he was close to the Tiger. Such thoughts gave the Hyena confidence and imitated the Tiger’s roar.

Others laughed, as it came out as the typical laugh of a Hyena. The Elephant watched the scene and rued his own days of glory. The Fox became restive as his wolf skin coat was also wearing off in patches.

Tiger supported by the Hyena scrapped through the election again. But it had sapped the Tiger’s strength. 

The Hyena thought it was the right time to strike a clever deal to become a King of the jungle. It went up to the Tiger and said, “Friend, I have helped you all along to be the King. Now I also want to be the King, at least for half the term.”

 The Tiger couldn’t believe his ears. “Of course, I will give you some more of the spoils of my kills. But making you a King? No way,” the Tiger spoke in a gruff voice.

The Hyena was not amused. “You think you’re the only tiger. I am also one. Look at my stripes if you have any doubts” he roared.  

The irritated Tiger said, “I’ll give you more than a share of spoils, but King? I say No for the last time” and went back to sleep.

The Hyena showed its teeth to scare the Tiger, threw temper tantrums, screamed and hurled abuses and rolled on the grass. The Tiger just ignored it.

The Hyena ran to the Fox. “Dear Fox, we live in the same jungle and the arrogance of the Tiger has become too much. Without my help he cannot rule and he does not seem to care about it. I want to be the King, don’t you think it I deserve it after all these years of service in the jungle? Will you help me?  You are a clever and wily one. You can persuade the Elephant to help me to get rid of the arrogant Tiger”.

The wily Fox looked at the Hyena with some amusement. He could not believe the Hyena really believed in his spiel of becoming a King. So he decided it was a good opportunity to weaken the Tiger and Hyena in one stroke and make his own bid to become a King.

The Fox replied, “My dear Hyena, I understand your desire to be the King. After all, you are as good as the Tiger as you’re also striped. I will talk to the Elephant. But he would want you to cut off your friendship with the Tiger and come over to our side, first. You do that and I will marshal our support for you. You also talk to the Elephant as courtesy demands it.”

The Hyena jumped in joy, ran to the Tiger, bared its teeth and said, “You betrayed your lifelong friend. Now I am fed up with your ungratefulness. So good bye, I am no more friend.” It jauntily walked out of the Tiger’s territory .

The Hyena ran to the idol of smiling Buddha. “Oh mighty Buddha, you must agree to make me the King, now the Tiger is not fit to be King without my help”.

The Buddha smiled and said, “Go to your friends and get their letter of support by tonight.”

The Hyena ran happily and got the Fox’s letter of support. The Hyena went near the Elephant and asked for a letter of support. The Elephant waved its ears and nodded its head. The Hyena was thrilled.

By night fall, the Hyena ran to the Buddha and handed over the letter from Fox. “Sir, I am waiting for the letter of support from Elephant which has promised to do.”

Buddha refused to accept the Hyena’s words. “My word is the writ here. You have failed to satisfy the conditions for nominating you. So I consign you to the wilderness. I am giving a chance to the Fox to become King.”

The Hyena, crest fallen, was shocked into silence.

The Hyena saw the jaunty walk of the Fox approaching the Buddha. The Fox ignored the Hyena remembering the wise counsel of old Elephant.

 “The Tiger and the Fox are two peas in a pod. Divide them first. I cannot support the Hyena.”

The Hyena, all alone now, gazed at the twinkling stars above and the dark jungle below. “I am all alone in my own jungle.” The thought choked its howl in despair, only it came out as a laugh.

The moral of the story is stripes alone don’t make Hyena, a Tiger.

Colonel R Hariharan, a retired military intelligence analyst, served as the executive director of the Madras Management Association. He has been a corporate trainer for more than a decade.

Some more Q & A on Sri Lanka presidential election

Col R Hariharan

Here are my answers to some more questions raised by a columnist on Sri Lanka presidential election being held tomorrow. The election is crucial for Rajapaksas, who are trying hard to be back in power after five years.

Q1: What is at stake for India ahead of tomorrow's election? 

India has nothing new at stake ahead of the presidential elections in Sri Lanka. In fact, this is one of the few presidential elections where accusation against Indian interference is markedly absent. However, India's strategic security and trade concerns with Sri Lanka are likely to become sharply defined during the term of the incoming president. 

China has been whittling down India's geo-strategic advantage in Sri Lanka and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) during the last two decades. China's influence made a quantum jump during President Mahinda Rajapaksa's decade-long rule that ended in 2014. Since then, China has tightened its stranglehold on Sri Lanka's economy and strategic security. 

However, Sirisena-Wickremesinghe  government has partially corrected the country' relations skewed in favour of China to the disadvantage of India. The incoming president has little option but to keep up the good relations with China, particularly as the Colombo Port City project is nearing completion and open for business. But, as I had been saying it offers a chance for both Sri Lanka and China to build better relations with India because India's participation is essential for the success of port city financial hub. 

In the IOR, India can expect to be challenged more and more, when the US and its European and East Asian allies tweak power play in the Indo-Pacific to check China's powerful efforts to build upon its strategic footholds in the IOR. Though India is a member of the quadrilateral, it will try hard to retain its strategic autonomy on bilateral relations with China as it has a number of outstanding issues with its northern neighbour. And Sri Lanka is likely to be unwittingly involved in the India-China power play. It is not as bad as it sounds because Sri Lanka can also become the meeting ground for both the big Asian countries to mend their relations. 

Q 2: Between Mr. Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Mr. Premadasa, who does India have more reason to worry about?  

There is nothing for India to "worry" about either of the candidates. Gotabaya has had first-hand experience of the advantage of having good relations with India during the Eelam War. In spite of strong anti-Sri Lanka political sentiment in Tamil Nadu, New Delhi did not allow it to overtake its national priority to not intervene in Sri Lanka. After the war, India also helped out by softening the UN Human Rights Council when Rajapaksa was hauled up on allegations of gross human right. Gotabaya is a sharp person and a strong survivor. National security, particularly against terrorism is his stated objective; and his manifesto identifies building better security relations with India as one of the  priorities. However, with Mahinda as PM, China is likely to have an advantage; it had pitched in with money to help Mahinda in the last presidential election. Both PM Modi and Mahinda have maintained their personal relations on a positive note. 

During PM Modi's last visit to Sri Lanka, Sajith as housing minister accompanied the Indian PM when he handed over houses completed under the Indian-aided project Sri Lanka. At that time, their body language showed a lot of mutual warmth . As Sajith is a four-time parliamentarian, he is probably familiar with the good, bad and ugly sides of the history of India-Sri Lanka relations.  He is expected to maintain good relations with India as his priority is development.  

Q 3: How have the Easter attacks shaped the narrative in this election campaign?

Of course, the Easter Day (21 April 2019) jihadi attack has made  national security as a priority subject in the election. Its probe has revealed three things. First is administrative failure to act upon advance information. Second, Indian connection of Zaharan Hashim, the leader of the National Thowheed Jamat which carried out the attacks. In the follow up action IS suspects not only in Sri Lanka, but also in Tamil Nadu Kerala and Karnataka have been rounded up. Lastly, massive anti-Muslim riots in North-western province by Buddhist fringe elements  even as the police watched. All the three issues have influenced the electoral narrative of all candidates, particularly front runners Gotabaya and Sajith.

Q 4: Do minorities have reason to fear Mr. Rajapaksa? 

Minorities fear him because of his strong political base is among Sinhala nationalist Buddhists in Southern Sri Lanka, where Buddhist fringe elements thrive. Muslims have horrible memories of anti-Muslim violence unleashed during Rajapaksa rule. Gotabaya was the secretary for defence and public security at that time. Generally, he had been soft in taking follow up action against those involved in such anti-minority violence. Even Tamils who did not join the LTTE in North and East during the Eelam War have suffered the fall out of Gotabaya's ruthless actions during the war. His name is linked to white van disappearances and gross misuse of armed forces and military intelligence to carryout kidnappings and killings. He had been resisting both local and international inquiries into allegations of war crimes. 

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info

Sri Lanka presidential election perspectives : Q & A

Col R Hariharan

Sri Lankans will be voting to elect their next president tomorrow. The election has divided Sri Lankan society vertically, as never before, because the Rajapaksas are making a strong bid to be back in power after five years in political wilderness. Here are my answers to questions raised by a scribe from Sri Lanka.

Q1 : In your opinion, how important is the upcoming Presidential Election for Sri Lanka in terms of its future and why?

The 2019 Sri Lanka Presidential Election is important because the country needs a leader who can meet unfulfilled expectations of Sirisena government. Internally, there is a severe economic pressure compounded by growing debt servicing load, growing cost of living and unresolved political issues leading potential ethnic confrontation. The choice between Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa is in reality deciding which is more important - Ends or Means to resolve the issues 

Q2 : Do you think the results of the November 16th Election will have an impact on the country's ties with South Asia as well as with India and China. 

Yes. It's being watched closely by powers involved in the strategic power play in Indo-Pacific between China which has strengthened its strategic presence in South Asia and the emerging Quadrilateral powers - US, Japan, Australia and a reluctant India which dominated Indo-Pacific. By virtue of Sri Lanka's dominant geographical location and increasing Chinese influence, Sri Lanka is likely to face the fallout of this power play and to make difficult choices. 

This power play will get more intense between India and China in trade as RECEP trade agreement and BRI projects start yielding results. 

Q 3: In your opinion, who is the more moderate politician, is it Mr. Gotabaya Rajapaksa or Mr. Sajith Premadasa and policy wise, who seems to have a better knack at balancing Sri Lanka's international relations without bias. 

Gotabaya is a strong,

 assertive leader focused on results rather than means adopted. This had led to a number of aberrations relating to rule of law failures, curtailing of freedom of speech etc during the Rajapaksa rule. There was marked tilt in favour of China during this period. In his manifesto greater emphasis is still on national security. Unfortunately he's facing the fallout of the decline of Rajapaksas international reputation. It has been mainly due to unwillingness to be more accountable to concerns of the international community. This is a handicap he starts with despite his proven ability to handle crisis situations. 

In this respect Sajith Premadasa, though more sedate and less colourful than his rival, may be more acceptable to international community. He had been a parliament member for nearly two decades and seems to be more acceptable to civil society both at home and abroad. His pointed focus on bringing peace among ethnic communities and emphasis on a development agenda are likely to be welcomed by international community. PM Wickremesinghe has a better equation with the West, which can be useful to Sajith. 

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info

In the time of terror threats, let the best man win Lanka polls

Col R Hariharan  |TNN| Times of India, Chennai| Updated: Nov 12, 2019

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/72014000.cms?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=TOIDesktop&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

CHENNAI: Amid the excitement of the Ayodhya verdict and opening of the Kartarpur corridor to Indian devotees of Nankana Sahib, the Sri Lanka Presidential election to be held on November 16 finds little space in the media, not even in Tamil Nadu. The election will decide who will be at the helm in Sri Lanka in the next five years.

Internationally, Sri Lanka has emerged as the strategic pivot for China to assert its military and economic power in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China’s influence is to make further headway with the progress of the Belt and Road infrastructure initiative in the region.  These developments have become a source of major concern to India as its national security is tied with Sri Lanka by geography.  Growing Chinese power in IOR has increased the concern to the USA and its East Asian and European allies, dominating the Indo-Pacific.

The election is being held at a time when the country’s governance has taken a beating ever since President Maithripala Sirisena made an abortive effort in October 2018 to replace the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. The infighting between the two exposed serious deficiencies in national security with the April 21 Easter Sunday attacks costing more than 253 lives. The anti-Muslim backlash that followed highlighted the potential threat of religious extremism getting out of hand. These events overshadowed some of the achievements of the government, which came to power promising good governance, rule of law and greater accountability. The country is facing severe economic pressure compounded by growing debt servicing load, high cost of living and unemployment. Alleged war crimes and forced disappearance issues after the Eelam War continues to hang fire delaying efforts to bring ethnic amity. The election will also decide whether former president Mahinda Rajapaksa will emerge powerful again.

Of the 35 candidates, the real contest is between 70-year-old Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the controversial former defence secretary and brother of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa, 52, housing minister and son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa.   Gotabaya, fielded by the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) led by Mahinda, has Sinhala Buddhist nationalists as his support base. On the other hand, Gotabaya’s reputation as an authoritarian figure with disdain for democratic norms, humanitarian laws and rule of law dogs him.  Gotabaya’s manifesto released on Oct 25 focuses on national security and restoring stability after the failure the present regime to prevent the Easter Sunday attacks. The government plans to work with India for regional security and engage with SAARC and BIMSTEC groupings. 

In contrast, Sajith Premadasa, deputy chairman of the ruling United National Party (UNP), fielded by New Democratic Front (NDF) is a non-controversial personality. Tamil National Alliance (TNA) chief His father Ranasinghe Premadasa came from humble beginnings rose up to become PM and then President. Since 2000, Sajith has been elected to parliament four times. Sajith has followed his father’s footsteps by focusing on development youth, and the downtrodden. Apart from the UNP, which usually enjoys the support of a third of voters, Sajith is supported by two prominent Muslim parties — Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and All Ceylon Makkal Congress, the Tamil Progressive Alliance formed by Tamils of Indian origin and the Jathika Hela Urumaya, popularly known as monks party. Former president Chandrika Kumaratunge and her group within the SLFP has also pledged their support to Sajith.  

Sajith’s manifesto appeared to have more depth, having learned from the aberrations of the outgoing Sirisena government’s failure to deliver on its promises. The manifesto pledged a new constitution to create a strong nation with a judiciary independent of the government, independent public prosecutor appointed by the Constitutional Council. The manifesto also envisaged the creation of an upper house comprising provincial council representatives. Other promises include creation of a national security advisor, adopting a zero-tolerance policy on drugs and extremism, and set up special anti-narcotic courts with special prosecutors. Of interest to minorities are the introduction of new laws to monitor religious extremism, penalising hate speech, resettlement of war displaced persons and “meaningful devolution” of powers to provinces.  

As a neighbour, India would prefer a politically and economically stable Sri Lanka, to build upon existing cooperation in national security and trade between the two countries. At the same time, India is wary of China’s use of Sri Lanka as a springboard to further its military advantage as well as commercial edge in South Asia. The Easter Sunday attacks have shown the need for close cooperation and coordination of combating terrorism between the nations. The Rajapaksa rule had shown a tilt towards China ostensibly to develop infrastructure projects using its help; however, the country has been burdened by huge debts. So if Gotabaya wins India may have to get Sri Lanka strike a balance in its relationship with India and China. 

(Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis)