What Sri Lanka’s
election verdict means for the country’s ethnic groups, and for
India
R Hariharan in TOI Edit Page | Edit Page, politics, World | TOI
The election of former defence secretary, Gotabaya
Rajapaksa, as the seventh President of Sri Lanka came as no surprise to those
familiar with the island’s politics. Gotabaya’s strong and assertive
personality, focused on results rather than means, earned him the
reputation of an authoritarian figure hated by many, particularly international
media and civil society. There are a few home truths to how he managed to win
52.25% of votes polled to walk away as the victor.
His 10.25% margin of votes over his nearest rival Sajith
Premadasa showed majority of the voters – mostly Sinhalese – believed he is the
man of the hour to ensure Sri Lanka’s security and stability as a united
entity. For most Sinhalese, not only the rural Rajapaksa supporters but many
among the middle class, he is a leader who delivered them from Tamil Tiger
separatists who threatened their existence for over two decades.
They saw the record of public service of his rival pale in
comparison with Gotabaya’s results achieved during the civil war years.
Gotabaya’s pithy remark in his maiden speech after his victory: “We knew right
from the start that the main factor of this election victory is the Sinhalese
majority of the country” underlined his strength.
It is true Gotabaya cuts corners to get results and in many
cases trampled upon humanitarian laws during the Eelam war. There
are a number of cases of corruption, cronyism, kidnapping and murder
where his name is linked to alleged perpetrators. All these cases have been
under investigation for over five years. In not even one major case has he been
convicted. Even in the infamous White flag case where Field Marshal Sarath
Fonseka accused him of ordering the killing of LTTE leaders who wanted to
surrender, he was not found guilty.
Though incumbent
President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe won
power with promise to clean up administration, restore rule of law, abolish
executive presidency, they worked cohesively only for first two years. But
after that they were working at odds with each other, due to their animosity
which became visceral.
Inner party power
struggle also took its toll. President Sirisena’s abortive bid to carry out a
‘constitutional’ coup to replace Wickremesinghe with Mahinda as prime minister
in October 2018, was the final straw that paralysed the government
and rendered it inactive. The adverse impact was seen later when the government
failed to act and prevent the jihadi terror attacks on April 21, though it had
advance information.
The terrorist attack
shook the confidence of Sri Lankans in their government. Probes revealed utter
failure of leadership. Sinhala fringe elements triggered a backlash adding to
chaos and instability. Gotabaya’s earlier record made him the most qualified
among the candidates to become president to ensure security and
stability.
Gotabaya started his
presidential campaign unofficially last year after his brother Mahinda
Rajapaksa’s bid to become PM failed in October. As against this, the ruling UNP
under PM Wickremesinghe intentionally delayed accepting Premadasa’s bid as
official candidate, because of his own ambitions. Premadasa got barely a month
to launch his official campaign. So there was little time to rally
forces against the Rajapaksas, as was done in the 2014 presidential
election.
Gotabaya was
totally focussed on Sinhala sensitivities and did not deviate from
what Mahinda had already offered to minorities. On the other hand, Premadasa
compromised Sinhala votes by agreeing to favourably consider some of
the Tamil demands. While he won near total minority support in the north
and east he lost out on Sinhala votes, though his father Ranasinghe
Premadasa came from humble beginnings and built his reputation through
development projects for the poor.
During Mahinda’s term
as president he had skewed relations in favour of China, to the
disadvantage of India. He had even accused India of interfering in the last
presidential election, when he lost. In spite of this, Mahinda kept
his India connections open. He visited New Delhi in September 2018 and met
Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And when Modi visited Sri Lanka in June this year
to show India’s solidarity after the Easter Day terrorist attacks, Mahinda
discussed security related issues with him.
Gotabaya is a
pragmatic leader and can be expected to live up to his manifesto to develop
security cooperation with India, as national security and fighting extremism
are his priorities. But the reality is China is now entrenched in Sri Lanka
more than it was in 2014, when Rajapaksa’s rule ended, and it has become the
major player in Sri Lanka’s economy and strategic security. So India
will have to walk the extra mile to build on positives of its relations with
Sri Lanka.
The incoming president
has to keep up good relations with India as the Chinese promoted Colombo
International Financial Centre, a self-contained smart city project,
will open for business next year. To be profitable, not only this project
but almost all Sri Lankan projects would need Indian participation. We can also
expect the Chinese to factor this aspect while negotiating with Indian
counterparts. The challenge for India would be how to take advantage of
it.
Gotabaya’s victory
with a good mandate has made Sinhalese constituency strong. So Tamils
have to rework their strategy afresh to find equitable space, beyond mere
whipping up of ethnic passions. Till then there is not much India can do in
this traditional area.
DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.
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