Here are my answers to some more questions
raised by a columnist on Sri Lanka presidential election being held tomorrow. The
election is crucial for Rajapaksas, who are trying hard to be back in power
after five years.
Q1: What is at stake for India ahead
of tomorrow's election?
India has nothing new at stake ahead
of the presidential elections in Sri Lanka. In fact, this is one of the few
presidential elections where accusation against Indian interference is markedly
absent. However, India's strategic security and trade concerns with Sri
Lanka are likely to become sharply defined during the term of the incoming
president.
China has been whittling down India's
geo-strategic advantage in Sri Lanka and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) during the
last two decades. China's influence made a quantum jump during President
Mahinda Rajapaksa's decade-long rule that ended in 2014. Since then, China
has tightened its stranglehold on Sri Lanka's economy and strategic security.
However, Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government
has partially corrected the country' relations skewed in favour of China to the
disadvantage of India. The incoming president has little option but to keep up
the good relations with China, particularly as the Colombo Port City project is
nearing completion and open for business. But, as I had been saying it offers a
chance for both Sri Lanka and China to build better relations with India
because India's participation is essential for the success of port city
financial hub.
In the IOR, India can expect to be
challenged more and more, when the US and its European and East Asian allies
tweak power play in the Indo-Pacific to check China's powerful efforts to build
upon its strategic footholds in the IOR. Though India is a member of the
quadrilateral, it will try hard to retain its strategic autonomy on
bilateral relations with China as it has a number of outstanding issues with
its northern neighbour. And Sri Lanka is likely to be unwittingly involved in
the India-China power play. It is not as bad as it sounds because Sri Lanka can
also become the meeting ground for both the big Asian countries to mend their
relations.
Q 2: Between Mr. Gotabaya Rajapaksa and
Mr. Premadasa, who does India have more reason to worry about?
There is nothing for India to
"worry" about either of the candidates. Gotabaya has had first-hand
experience of the advantage of having good relations with India during the
Eelam War. In spite of strong anti-Sri Lanka political sentiment in Tamil Nadu,
New Delhi did not allow it to overtake its national priority to not intervene
in Sri Lanka. After the war, India also helped out by softening the UN Human
Rights Council when Rajapaksa was hauled up on allegations of gross human
right. Gotabaya is a sharp person and a strong survivor. National security, particularly
against terrorism is his stated objective; and his manifesto identifies
building better security relations with India as one of the priorities.
However, with Mahinda as PM, China is likely to have an advantage; it had
pitched in with money to help Mahinda in the last presidential election. Both
PM Modi and Mahinda have maintained their personal relations on a positive
note.
During PM Modi's last visit to Sri
Lanka, Sajith as housing minister accompanied the Indian PM when he handed
over houses completed under the Indian-aided project Sri Lanka. At that time,
their body language showed a lot of mutual warmth . As Sajith is a
four-time parliamentarian, he is probably familiar with the good, bad and ugly
sides of the history of India-Sri Lanka relations. He is expected to maintain
good relations with India as his priority is development.
Q 3: How have the Easter attacks
shaped the narrative in this election campaign?
Of course, the Easter Day (21 April 2019) jihadi attack has
made national security as a priority subject in the election. Its probe
has revealed three things. First is administrative failure to act upon advance
information. Second, Indian connection of Zaharan Hashim, the leader of the
National Thowheed Jamat which carried out the attacks. In the follow up action
IS suspects not only in Sri Lanka, but also in Tamil Nadu Kerala and Karnataka
have been rounded up. Lastly, massive anti-Muslim riots in North-western
province by Buddhist fringe elements even as the police watched. All
the three issues have influenced the electoral narrative of all candidates,
particularly front runners Gotabaya and Sajith.
Q 4: Do minorities have reason to fear Mr. Rajapaksa?
Minorities fear him because of his strong political base is
among Sinhala nationalist Buddhists in Southern Sri Lanka, where Buddhist
fringe elements thrive. Muslims have horrible memories of anti-Muslim violence
unleashed during Rajapaksa rule. Gotabaya was the secretary for defence and
public security at that time. Generally, he had been soft in taking follow up
action against those involved in such anti-minority violence. Even Tamils who
did not join the LTTE in North and East during the Eelam War have suffered the
fall out of Gotabaya's ruthless actions during the war. His name is linked to
white van disappearances and gross misuse of armed forces and military
intelligence to carryout kidnappings and killings. He had been resisting both
local and international inquiries into allegations of war crimes.
Col R
Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the
Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with
the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the
International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info
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