Col R Hariharan
Sri Lankans will be voting to elect their next
president tomorrow. The election has divided Sri Lankan society vertically, as
never before, because the Rajapaksas are making a strong bid to be back in
power after five years in political wilderness. Here are my answers to
questions raised by a scribe from Sri Lanka.
Q1 : In
your opinion, how important is the upcoming Presidential Election for Sri Lanka
in terms of its future and why?
The 2019 Sri Lanka
Presidential Election is important because the country needs a leader who can meet
unfulfilled expectations of Sirisena government. Internally, there is a severe
economic pressure compounded by growing debt servicing load, growing cost of living
and unresolved political issues leading potential ethnic confrontation. The
choice between Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa is in reality deciding
which is more important - Ends or Means to resolve the issues
Q2 : Do
you think the results of the November 16th Election will have an impact on the
country's ties with South Asia as well as with India and China.
Yes. It's being watched
closely by powers involved in the strategic power play in Indo-Pacific between
China which has strengthened its strategic presence in South Asia and the
emerging Quadrilateral powers - US, Japan, Australia and a reluctant India
which dominated Indo-Pacific. By virtue of Sri Lanka's dominant geographical
location and increasing Chinese influence, Sri Lanka is likely to face the
fallout of this power play and to make difficult choices.
This power play will get
more intense between India and China in trade as RECEP trade agreement and BRI
projects start yielding results.
Q 3: In
your opinion, who is the more moderate politician, is it Mr. Gotabaya Rajapaksa
or Mr. Sajith Premadasa and policy wise, who seems to have a better knack at
balancing Sri Lanka's international relations without bias.
Gotabaya is a strong,
assertive leader focused on results rather
than means adopted. This had led to a number of aberrations relating to rule of
law failures, curtailing of freedom of speech etc during the Rajapaksa rule.
There was marked tilt in favour of China during this period. In his manifesto
greater emphasis is still on national security. Unfortunately he's facing the
fallout of the decline of Rajapaksas international reputation. It has been
mainly due to unwillingness to be more accountable to concerns of the
international community. This is a handicap he starts with despite his proven
ability to handle crisis situations.
In this respect Sajith
Premadasa, though more sedate and less colourful than his rival, may be more
acceptable to international community. He had been a parliament member for
nearly two decades and seems to be more acceptable to civil society both at
home and abroad. His pointed focus on bringing peace among ethnic communities
and emphasis on a development agenda are likely to be welcomed by international
community. PM Wickremesinghe has a better equation with the West, which can be
useful to Sajith.
Col R
Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the
Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with
the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International
Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info
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