Friday, 15 November 2019

Sri Lanka presidential election perspectives : Q & A


Col R Hariharan

Sri Lankans will be voting to elect their next president tomorrow. The election has divided Sri Lankan society vertically, as never before, because the Rajapaksas are making a strong bid to be back in power after five years in political wilderness. Here are my answers to questions raised by a scribe from Sri Lanka.

Q1 : In your opinion, how important is the upcoming Presidential Election for Sri Lanka in terms of its future and why?

The 2019 Sri Lanka Presidential Election is important because the country needs a leader who can meet unfulfilled expectations of Sirisena government. Internally, there is a severe economic pressure compounded by growing debt servicing load, growing cost of living and unresolved political issues leading potential ethnic confrontation. The choice between Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa is in reality deciding which is more important - Ends or Means to resolve the issues 

Q2 : Do you think the results of the November 16th Election will have an impact on the country's ties with South Asia as well as with India and China. 

Yes. It's being watched closely by powers involved in the strategic power play in Indo-Pacific between China which has strengthened its strategic presence in South Asia and the emerging Quadrilateral powers - US, Japan, Australia and a reluctant India which dominated Indo-Pacific. By virtue of Sri Lanka's dominant geographical location and increasing Chinese influence, Sri Lanka is likely to face the fallout of this power play and to make difficult choices. 

This power play will get more intense between India and China in trade as RECEP trade agreement and BRI projects start yielding results. 

Q 3: In your opinion, who is the more moderate politician, is it Mr. Gotabaya Rajapaksa or Mr. Sajith Premadasa and policy wise, who seems to have a better knack at balancing Sri Lanka's international relations without bias. 

Gotabaya is a strong,
 assertive leader focused on results rather than means adopted. This had led to a number of aberrations relating to rule of law failures, curtailing of freedom of speech etc during the Rajapaksa rule. There was marked tilt in favour of China during this period. In his manifesto greater emphasis is still on national security. Unfortunately he's facing the fallout of the decline of Rajapaksas international reputation. It has been mainly due to unwillingness to be more accountable to concerns of the international community. This is a handicap he starts with despite his proven ability to handle crisis situations. 

In this respect Sajith Premadasa, though more sedate and less colourful than his rival, may be more acceptable to international community. He had been a parliament member for nearly two decades and seems to be more acceptable to civil society both at home and abroad. His pointed focus on bringing peace among ethnic communities and emphasis on a development agenda are likely to be welcomed by international community. PM Wickremesinghe has a better equation with the West, which can be useful to Sajith. 

Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com  Blog: http://col.hariharan.info


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