World Focus | Issue 482 | page
5-8 | February 2020| | www.worldfocus.in
Background of Gotabaya’s victory
Sri Lanka has
begun a new political chapter in 2020 with the election of Gotabaya Rajapaksa,
who served as defence secretary for nearly a decade under his brother,
President Mahinda Rajapaksa from 2005 to 2015. His electoral victory was not
unexpected as most of the Sri Lankans hail him and his brother as national
heroes for eliminating three-decade long Tamil separatist insurgency by the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The Rajapaksas and their close
supporters consider Gotabaya the modern day action hero and affectionately call
him the ‘Terminator’.
The newly elected
President, speaking to a news agency immediately after the election said it was the Sinhala majority vote “allowed
me to win the presidency....I knew that I could win with only the votes of the
Sinhala majority. But I asked Tamils and Muslims to be part of my success.
Their response was not what I expected.
However, I urge them to join me to build one Sri Lanka.”
Gotabaya won with a majority of 52.25 %
votes polled, mostly from Sinhala voters; it was 10.25 % more than his nearest
rival -the United National Party (UNP) nominee Sajith Premadasa, who was
supported largely by Tamil and Muslim minority. The Terminator’s victory is in
sharp contrast to the 2015 presidential
election when Sinhala votes were divided between President Mahinda Rajapaksa,
who was seeking a third term, and Maithripala Sirisena, who defeated Rajapaksa
with the support of the UNP opposition and huge support from minorities.
The Sinhala population, which had voted
against Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2015 probably, changed its mind after the Easter
Sunday attacks carried out by home-grown National Thowheed Jamath
(NTJ)
terrorists April 2019. The NTJ influenced by the Islamic
State (IS) terrorist agenda targeted three churches and three luxury hotels on
Easter Sunday, April 21, 2019 killing 259 people and injuring over 400 others.
People lost total faith in the government when inquiry revealed the President
Sirisena government had failed to prevent the attacks though it had received
information from India two weeks in advance about terrorist plans to carry out
the attacks.
The well planned, brazen attack terrified the people, who
still remember the horrors of fighting Tamil separatist insurgency brought to
an end ten years ago. Inquiry also exposed huge gaps in national security coordination
and failure to carryout follow-up action when the state intelligence had
reported the NTJ was spreading its extremist ideology for three years.
The fear of terrorism rising again became a rallying call
for conservative Sinhala Buddhists, who consider Sri Lanka as the last bastion
of Theravada Buddhism, to support Gotabaya in the presidential election. The Rajapaksas
had used Sinhala Buddhist nationalism to muster political support. During their
rule they had handled Buddhist fringe elements spouting anti-Muslim hate
rhetoric and attacks with kid gloves lest it offends Buddhist clergy. So
Gotabaya was able to swing Sinhala nationalist votes in his favour.
The strong affirmation of Sinhala
Buddhist support to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the
consolidation of Sinhala majority backing he received are politically significant.
It encourages President Gotabaya to chart his own course of action, rather than
be subjected to pulls and pressures of opposition parties playing minority
politics. On the international front, it gives him freedom to handle big power
pressures and influences, with greater confidence than past presidents.
Soon after assuming office, President Gotabaya went on to
implement many ‘doable’ he had promised to deliver during the run up to the
election and in his manifesto. These included ordering an inquiry into the
Easter Sunday attacks and follow up action taken to fix responsibility.
He had taken welcome measures like
steep tax cuts in income tax, removal of all portraits of all politicians
including the President and ministers from ministerial offices, cutting down
the number of defence personnel assigned on presidential and ministerial
security duties and reduction in the number of security vehicles accompanying
VIP convoys. These showed the newly elected president’s style was managerial
and methodical rather than political.
However, President
Gotabaya’s the reputation as an authoritarian figure with disdain for
democratic norms and rule of law based on his performance as the defence
secretary haunts him. He has repeatedly said that he
does not recognize the UN Human Rights Council resolution co-sponsored by Sri
Lanka for promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights for alleged
excesses committed during the Eelam War.
Civil society and
media fear the freedom of expression they enjoyed during President Sirisena’s
rule is in danger of being curtailed under his watch.
This fear was
further exacerbated when he announced he would give “due powers” to
intelligence officers and provide legal cover to them. During the campaign
period, he had also stated that he would release all military personnel under
detention if he comes to power has shocked many. There were 48 armed forces personnel prosecuted
in five serious cases of abduction, disappearance, assault and murder. Names of
President Gotabaya, members of Rajapaka family and a few other senior officers’
had come up during the course of CID investigations into these cases. These
included cases of forced disappearances and murder of well-known journalist
Lasantha Wickremetunge, editor of the Sunday
Leader and cartoonist Eknaligoda.
Some of the actions of the
government after he assumed office were clearly aimed at undoing not only the
investigations and prosecutions of criminal cases involving military intelligence
and navy personnel mentioned earlier. But there were also actions that showed a
vindictive streak. For example a Special Presidential Commission (SPC) has been
appointed to probe those responsible for falsely implicating people in murders
or related investigation.
This would mean State
investigative agencies like the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) and the
Financial Crimes Investigation Division (FCID) had been investigating a number
of cases involving the Rajapaksas would be investigated. Even before SPC probe started, Chief
Inspector Nishantha de Silva, head of organized crimes division of CID fled the
country with his family to Switzerland to seek asylum there.
Inspector de Silva was handling
high profile cases involving members of Rajapaksa family. They also included
important cases like the killing of Lasantha Wickrematunga. After the police
officer fled, a Sri Lankan woman staffer of the Swiss embassy alleged that she
was abducted, questioned and tortured by
unknown persons. In the police investigations that followed the woman was
arrested for making false allegations.
International relations
President Gotabaya is
facing three gritty issues which have defied resolution of successive
governments ever since the conclusion of the Eelam War in May 2009. The three
issues are: impact of international security dynamics in the Indian Ocean
Region, international accountability for alleged Eelam war crimes and resolving
the Tamil national question. All the three issues have gained relevance during
the last decade in shaping India-Sri Lanka relations as well as Sri Lanka’s
relations with the international community.
President Gotabaya’s predecessors
have managed the IOR strategic security issue by balancing Sri Lanka’s
relations with IOR strategic security’s three principal stakeholders – India,
the US and China. However, both Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena during
their presidency never seriously tried to come to terms with the Tamil national
question and Sri Lanka’s accountability for Eelam war crimes.
President Gotabaya
will need the understanding of international community particularly India, China
the US and in trying to manage these issues. While there is no doubt that they
would readily help Sri Lanka in revamping national security structure to
prevent Jihadi terror attacks and IOR strategic security, the President may be
required to walk the extra mile to find support on the issues of devolution of
powers to Tamils and the accountability for war crimes during the Eelam war.
IOR on India-Sri
Lanka relations
After the elimination of LTTE
in 2009, India-Sri Lanka relations have been progressing smoothly. However, the dynamic changes in the strategic
environment in South Asia and the IOR with the growing Chinese presence in
South Asia, have forced both India and Sri Lanka to periodically examine
problem areas to avoid any damage to their extremely cordial relations. This is
more so ever since, Sri Lanka became an important strategic partner of China’s
ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) –China’s strategic economic
infrastructure project promoted since 2013. The Hambantota port, which was
financed, developed and now run by the Chinese, has emerged as a vital Chinese strategic
asset of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR), which forms part of the
BRI.
Conscious of this Prime
Minister Narendra Modi had been promoting ‘Neighbourhood First’ as the central
theme of his foreign policy initiatives ever since he came to power in 2014. As IOR forms part of the neighborhood, the
Indian Prime Minister Modi has promoted SAGAR (Security and Growth for All)
maritime initiative for developing the blue economy of the IOR countries. It
seeks to create three things: a climate
of trust and transparency, respect for international maritime rules and
increase in maritime cooperation with Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles,
and Bangladesh.
After winning a majority in the
May 2019 general elections, Prime Minister visited the Maldives and Sri Lanka
within the first ten days of assuming office for the second term. This indicates
that India’s foreign policy priority to build strong relations with its IOR
neighbours, particularly with Sri Lanka and Maldives.
Chinese contractors have also
built the Colombo Port City project was however, the project costing US$ 1.5
billion is being built on 112 hectares of reclaimed land in Colombo’s scenic
Galle Face promenade has now been christened as Colombo International Financial
Centre, a self-contained smart city project. However, Indian participation and
investment is essential to make them profitable. This is likely to condition
the approaches of both Sri Lanka and China to India-Sri Lanka relations.
China has also gained
commercial edge in South Asia with the progress in MSR infrastructure. The
China- Sri Lanka free trade agreement (FTA) come through, Sri Lanka’s
importance will increase for China as it has a flourishing FTA with India.
It is in this complex
environment, India and Sri Lanka relations
will be subject to China’s strategic power play in Sri Lanka apart from
India help Sri Lanka in capacity building to manage the Jihadi terrorist
threat.
President Gotabaya showed his keenness to improve his
relations with India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in particular, as he had
earned the reputation of Sinophile while serving as defence secretary. So he readily
accepted Prime Minister Modi’s
invitation to visit New Delhi extended soon after the election result was
announced. The Indian prime minister had kept his links with the Rajpaksas open
even after the 2015 defeat in the presidential poll. President Gotabaya visited
New Delhi on November 29-30, 2019 and sought
India’s support and help to improve national security, combat Islamist
terrorism and help economic recovery.
India readily responded with a line of credit of $400
million to meet Sri Lanka’s development needs and $50 to augment its security.
It is significant that though PM Modi in a press statement on November 29, expressed
the hope that the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan constitution
based on the Indo-Sri Lanka accord would be adhered to. However, President
Gotabaya later said the 13th Amendment could not be implemented
“against the wishes and feelings of the majority community.”
During
his India visit President Gotabaya termed the agreement with China on
Hambantota Port as a “mistake” and it should be renegotiated. This must have
caused a lot of concern to China. However, after he returned home, he told a
press briefing that there was no need to renegotiate the Hambantota agreement
but the security aspects would need to be looked into. Though the Chinese reacted quickly with a
statement remind the agreement cannot be renegotiated, the issue probably
figured when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Colombo on January 14.
According
to President Gotabaya’s office statement the Chinese minister had pledged not
to allow “any outside infuences” to interfere with Sri Lanka’s internal
matters”, apparently a not so subtle hint at the US which had tried to
influence the 2015 election. He promised as a strategic partner “China will
standby Sri Lanka’s interests. China stands for the country’s sovereignty,
territorial integrity and independence.” The BRI projects issue and China’s
support for Sri Lanka’s stand at the UNHRC on accountability for war crime
issue also figured in their discussion.
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