Col R Hariharan |31-1-2020| South Asia Security Trends, February 2020
Getting
ready for the parliamentary poll
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fresh
from victory in the Rajapaksa battle for second coming, took a slew of
decisions to fulfill what he promised in the run up to the November 2019
elections. The essence of his agenda was spelled out in his maiden speech in
parliament on January 3, 2020. He rewarded the Sinhala Buddhist majority which
voted him to power by saying what they wanted; he said “We must always respect the aspirations of the majority of the
people. It is only then that the sovereignty of the people will be safeguarded.
In accordance with our Constitution, I pledge that during my term of office, I
will always defend the unitary status of our country, and protect and nurture
the Buddha Sasana whilst safeguarding the rights of all citizens to practice a
religion of their choice.”
They see the consolidation of
Sinhala Buddhist votes under the new President voted in to find answers to
their fear of resurgence of terrorism, not of the Tamil kind, but a far worse
one with external Islamic State terrorist connections. Anti-Muslim paranoia was
fanned by Buddhist fringe elements after Easter Sunday attacks last year by
home grown Jihadi terrorists took 259 lives. It served Gotabaya to consolidate
the Sinhala Buddhist votes in his favour though minority voters supported his
opponent Sajith Premadasa.
President Gotabaya’s words of
reassurance to the minorities and appeal to them to join hands in nation
building did not sound credible with some of his actions and
pronouncements. His loud stand against
devolution of powers to the Tamil minority and casual dismissal of the long
standing issues of 23,000 missing persons and forced disappearances in the
Eelam War showed his approach was ruthless and different from his brother
Mahinda’s more politically nuanced actions.
Though many may find Farhaan
Wahab’s super-charged, angry narrative in the Colombo Telegraph on the rise of Sinhala nationalism alarmist, his
comment “the majoritarian society that had been in a
long search for a strong Sinhala man found its Dutugemunu over the demise of minorities
political aspirations” would resonate with the fears
of many minority leaders on the rise of Gotabaya Rajapaksa to the top. While
physically ethnic divide may not be there in the island state, mentally it
would firm further in when the country goes to elect its new parliament in
December 2020.
President Gotabaya brings to his
appointment skill sets and wide variety of applied experience never before seen
in a Sri Lanka president. His impressive resume includes service as an army
officer with combat experience, an expatriate in the US with experience as
information technologist and most importantly, decade-long service as a
bureaucrat who strategized the Eelam War to a total success. His assets are his self-confidence, goal
clarity, superior strategic skills and ability to leverage his knowledge of technology
in problem solving and readiness to ruthlessly act to achieve his goals. Many of his objectives like abolition of the
19th Amendment to the constitution to restore full powers to the
executive president and reform of electoral system would require two thirds
majority in parliament.
So we can expect him to focus on
getting two thirds majority success for the SLPP-led coalition in the
parliament election. To achieve this he will have to ensure he retains the Sinhala
majority support and keep the opposition parties divided.
Even before the call of the
parliament election is made, the leadership of the main opposition party United
National Party (UNP) is divided over the question of coming to terms with President
Gotabaya. The inner party power struggle between the old guard and the younger
generation is debilitating not only the party’s strength but also dividing its
coalition partners. The old guard is championing Ranil Wickremesinghe, seasoned
leader to continue; it is also manoeuvring to keep out Sajith Premadasa from
the leadership of the party.
While Ranil’s followers want status quo, Sajith’s supporters
want the party to change its style and increase its relevance to younger
generation and rural masses. Sajith is also not forgetting to appeal to the
Buddhist nationalist segment. The UNP leadership struggle is taking toll on its
coalition which is divided. That
includes the support of minority political parties who have limited option but
to support either of the faction.
While the main opposition is
trying to find its feet, President Gotabaya has undertaken structural changes in
national security and intelligence. In his parliamentary speech he listed steps being taken to
strengthen the national security apparatus. “Talented officers have been given
appropriate responsibilities again. We have taken steps to ensure proper
coordination between the Armed Forces and the Police, who are collectively
responsible for maintaining national security. The network of national
intelligence agencies has been reorganized and strengthened.” This would reassure the people shaken up by the administrative complacency
that led to the Easter Sunday attacks.
But the President is not only trying
to rectify national security aberrations but also contemplating structural
measures that would eliminate bureaucratic blocks and administrative corruption
that would ease common man’s life. It would not stop at offering freebies or
tax cuts which he offered immediately after he was sworn in. President Gotabaya
has spoken of creating central data bases to eliminate bureaucratic road blocks
and corruption in public service, which had been the bane of Sri Lanka.
President Gotabaya is no go for
minority voter because he has alienated them. Muslim political leaders, more
than Tamil leaders, have a record of changing their coalition affiliations if
due incentives are offered. This was demonstrated during President Mahinda
Rajapaksa’s rule. After the anti-Muslim backlash of Easter Sunday blast, this
is going to be a difficult exercise, which would probably be attempted after
the parliamentary election.
Tamil minority is a different
lot altogether. Perhaps, Sri Lanka president can usefully engage one of the
India big data companies which advise Tamil Nadu political parties on how to
turn his fortune with Tamil minority voter.
Col R Hariharan, a
retired MI officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace
Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai
Centre for China Studies, South Asia Analysis Group and the International Law
and Strategic Analysis. Email: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:: https://col.hariharan.info
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