Col R Hariharan | Sri Lanka Perspectives July 2021 | South Asia Security Trends, August 1, 2021 | www.security-risk.com
The aphorism
‘road to hell is paved with good intentions’ may well apply to the Gotabaya
government’s disastrous performance, despite its claims of acting in good
faith. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, hailed as the ‘doer’ and ‘Terminator’ (for
wiping out the LTTE insurgents), continued to falter in delivering the “vistas
of prosperity and splendour” he promised before the election.
Obviously, one
reason is the continuing Covid-19 pandemic that hobbled much of the ‘Terminator’s
endeavours. The unrelenting run of pandemic infections crossed the 300,000-mark
during the month. However, the small consolation is, the daily average of 1504
new infections during the month, was 47 percent of the highest average reached
on May 26. Tourism industry, foreign remittances and export trade crippled by
the pandemic are yet to recover. This has affected the livelihood of the people,
sending the cost of essential commodities shooting to the skies.
But neither
the pandemic nor existential issues of the people seem to deter the President
from introducing some of the drastic measures, ostensibly for shoring up the
sinking economy and create an environment friendly society. These include
banning the import of chemical fertilisers to popularise use of organic
fertilisers, ban on import of phones and automobiles, which have made life
difficult for the citizen.
President
Gotabaya is already running the country with handpicked military officers
heading oversight committees and occupying administrative posts. He has also
pardoned military men convicted of criminal acts and dropped cases against
armed forces personnel who were being prosecuted for such acts. This has raised
widespread suspicion of militarisation of the administration under his
leadership.
Under these
circumstances, it is not surprising the Kotelawala Defence University (KDU)
Bill to be introduced in parliament in August, is seen by many as yet another militarisation
effort. This time it is the haloed precincts of academic education. The bill
aims to turn the KDU, a military training institution for officer cadets and
officers, into a full-fledged university. It envisages the admission of civilian
students also to pursue studies in law, engineering, management and medicine.
It will be governed by a military-heavy board, with five serving members of
armed forces in the nine-member board of governors. The wording of the Bill
indicates the university will be run like a military institution. The KDU will
function on its own, unlike 16 universities of the country which come under the
Universities Act of 1978.
The KDU bill
has provoked widespread protest from the academic world. The Federation of
University Teachers Associations (FUTA), the Ceylon Teachers’ Union (CTU) and
the Inter University Students Federation (IUSF), one of the powerful student
bodies in the country, have voiced their strong opposition to the Bill. Earlier
in the month, police came down heavily on a protest against the KDU Bill by the
CTU members. Some of protestors were arrested by the police for violating
Covid-19 health regulations, provoking complaints of misuse of health regulations.
The economy is
limping along from crisis to crisis. During July, it was yet another doomsday
prediction from Moody’s, global debt rating agency.
It placed
Sri Lanka’s unsecured debt ratings under review for downgrade. It was “driven
by Moody’s assessment that Sri Lanka’s increasingly fragile external liquidity
position raises the risk of default.” The Finance Ministry called Moody’s
action “unwarranted and ill timed” as it was working overtime to meet the
settlement of $1 billion worth of International Sovereign Bonds (ISB) maturing
towards the end of the month. However,
Sri Lanka said it had completed the groundwork towards the settlement of the
maturing ISBs. Capital Market Minister Nivard Cabral, said Sri Lanka has proved
all the doomsayers and sceptics, globally and locally, wrong. “The settlement
also cements the fact Sri Lanka continues its unblemished reputation of
honouring its debt,” he added. But Sri Lanka will have to move from one
financial crisis to another for quite some time it seems.
The US
State Department’s report on investment climate in Sri Lanka made dismal
reading. It said, “Sri Lanka is a challenging place to do business with high
transaction costs, aggravated by an unpredictable economic policy environment,
inefficient delivery of government services, and opaque government procurement
practices. Investors noted concerns over the potential for contract
repudiation, cronyism, and de facto or de jure expropriation. Public sector
corruption is a significant challenge for U.S. firms operating in Sri Lanka and
a constraint on foreign investment. While the country generally has adequate
laws and regulations to combat corruption, enforcement is weak, inconsistent,
and selective. US stakeholders and potential investors expressed particular
concern about corruption in large infrastructure projects and in government
procurement. The government pledged to address these issues, but the Covid
response remains its primary concern. Historically, the main political parties
do not pursue corruption cases against each other after gaining or losing
power.”
It was in
this murky atmosphere, Basil Rajapaksa, younger brother of the President and
fifth member of the Rajapaksa clan, was sworn in as Finance Minister. Basil is
said to be the chief strategist of ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)
and already heads almost all the Presidential Task Forces ranging from economic
policy to environment and essential services. His induction as a Minister only
formalises his powerful political role he is playing behind the scene. The fact
Basil is a US citizen, holding dual Sri Lanka citizenship, apparently does not seem
to bother anyone, not even the opposition.
The newly
inducted finance minister in his speech in parliament is said to have made fun
of his new office by referring to himself as a finance minister with no
finances. It is a statement of fact and he has the difficult task of presenting
a politically acceptable budget. The Sunday Times hinted at government sources
saying that “informal contacts had been made with different sources to raise
funds.” There was also the “likelihood of a visit to Colombo by an important
foreign dignitary where more funds from his country are expected to be
discussed”. Meanwhile, in his first official move, he is bringing a bill to
provide amnesty to those holding funds in foreign banks, if they repatriate
them to Sri Lanka before December 31. If they disclose taxable money, they will
be protected from investigation or prosecution.
But
President Gotabaya seems to be pragmatic that he would not be able to achieve
his goal of economic prosperity in the present term. While speaking to heads of
state-run and local media houses on his priorities, the President said he would
have five more years to achieve his goals, hinting at seeking a second term in
office. This has set speculation mills in motion, particularly as it came a
fortnight after Basil was anointed as a cabinet minister. Even a second term in
office may not be enough for the President to clean up Sri Lanka’s problems
galore: ethnic reconciliation, new constitution, accountability for human
rights violations etc.
In this context,
Albert Camus’ words from The Plague comes to mind. He said: “On
the whole, men are more good than bad; that however, isn’t the real point. But
they are more or less ignorant, and its that we call vice or virtue; the most
incorrigible vice being that an ignorance that fancies it knows everything and
therefore claims for itself the right to kill.”
Sri Lanka
seems to be caught in this “incorrigible vice”, from which it may not be able
to come out easily. [July 31, 2021]
[Col R Hariharan, a retire MI specialist on South
Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace
Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre
for China Studies. E-mail: colhari@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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